Was it Black Tuesday?

Did the current crisis facing the Government create their 'Black Tuesday'? Many commentators have pronounced that it is, others have said it is totally different, and others, myself included, think that it is too early to tell.

I remember, as a 19 year old, the conditions which led to 'Black Wednesday'. It had been rumbling around for a couple of weeks, the pound nearing it's lower limit in the ERM, the Chancellor pleading with the Governor of the Bundesbank for Germany to lower interest rates, and John Major stating there was no chance of devaluation. When the Wednesday arrived, the atmosphere was exhilarating. Obviously, I didn't have a mortgage to pay so I didn't seem to affect me, but the turmoil of interest rates rising to 12% and then 15% in the afternoon made for an exciting story. Late that evening, watching Norman Lamont announce our suspension from the ERM and rates returning to 10%, gave the story its climax.

On that day, nobody could predict that it would signal the end of the Tories' reputation for economic competence, while at the same time ushering in a new age of low interest rates and sustained economic growth which we are still experiencing today. It's quite ironic that the Tories were seen as economically competent when they had two recessions and boom, and incompetent when they had low inflation with growth!

It was only later on that the seeds of the Tory Government's long decline could be traced back to that day. The economy improved, but the ERM debacle along with Maastrict had highlighted European divisions in the Government, and back-to-basics had brought the papers out to find all the adulterers (apart from one), so nothing that the Government did was given credit and everything was seen through the prism of incompetence.

Time will tell whether Tuesday will become known as 'Black Tuesday'. I suspect not. I think it will be 'Brown Saturday' when the Prime Minister announced that there would be no General Election that the wheels came off this Government. At the moment, two wheels are off and two wheels are acting like they're attached to a dodgy Somerfield trolley.

Squiffy.