No time to join the Euro

In yesterday's and today's papers there are two articles about whether we should join the Euro. In yesterday's Times Oliver Kamm states that we should join now. In today's Mail Peter Oborne says that the Euro will not see another 10 years and that we should not join.

Oliver Kamm believes that the first ten years of the Euro have been a success and it is now challenging the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Peter Oborne believes that the stresses of the recession will lead to break-up of the Euro Zone and the death of the Euro.

I think it is useful to separate the Euro as a currency from EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) to align these two views.

I think that after a shaky start the Euro has indeed proved to be a successful currency. That's as it should be, representing 16 nations, now that Slovakia has joined, and 300 million people it should be successful. Many people who wish us to join the Euro believe that it should be easier to travel without changing from one currency to another, and that without the cost of changing money from one currency to another the costs to business can be reduced. For this reason the Euro looks attractive.

EMU is the overarching principle for which the Euro was created. One single market, one currency and one central bank to align the economies of Europe. Thus far, though, EMU has only had to contend with relatively benign economic conditions.

The next few years will determine whether EMU and the Euro have a long term future. There are four main levers that Governments use to affect their economy; Interest Rates, Exchanges Rates, Tax Rates and spending. EMU has removed control over Interest Rates and influence on exchange rates and so Euro Land Governments only have control over their spending and tax levels. If the Euro Zone countries cannot effectively manage their tax and spending in these difficult times strains will be placed on EMU and the central bank. The central bank has to cope with the demands from 16 different countries and may not be able to help as much as necessary. Stresses may become amplified in such circumstances (such as those that affected Britain's exit from the ERM).

Countries which were closely aligned when EMU was launched should cope well, those that fudged their budgets and entry criteria to become members of the club may find themselves diverging from the economies of the Euro Zone and finding it ever more difficult.

If EMU survives with all 16 members still operating the Euro at the end of the recession, then it will have passed the test and may become the world's reserve currency (although I think the Chinese Yuan is more likely to supplant the Dollar) . Otherwise Peter Oborne will be proved right.

Until the recession is over and we're well into recovery it is too early to say which is right. For now, I prefer to have all four economic levers at our disposal even if our Government are not using them correctly!

Squiffy.