This post from Mr Eugenides sums up my thoughts on Vince Cable. He's a nice gent, but the beatification of the man with muddled thinking is annoying me somewhat.
He doesn't face any difficult questions, like why did he say one month that the Government should not tell the BoE what to do about interest rates, then the following month calling on the Chancellor to tell the BoE to cut rates immediately?
Because he has no chance of becoming Chancellor he gets a free ride, and with a bit of comedy he's everyone favourite. I want someone with joined up thinking thank you.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 31 March 2010
Monday, 29 March 2010
Reversing the 1p on NICs
George Osborne has announced that the Tories will reverse the increase in National Insurance Contributions for 7 out of 10 people including Employers contributions. That is to be welcomed as increasing taxes on people and employers will be a bigger drag on recovery than any removal of the existing ‘stimulus’.
It’s also quite right that if there are to be efficiency savings of £11Bn can be found for 2011/12 then they should be brought forward to 2010/11. In fact how can any Government seriously think that it is good to continue with something which they know is not performing at its most efficient! I do think though, that it would have been a good idea if Mr. Osborne had announced a mix of savings and spending cuts to finance the tax cut. It would have been a big signal that the Tories are going to ‘get real’.
There is too much emphasis on efficiency savings and waste, and no doubt a lot can be found, but we are getting used to the promises but are still awaiting the delivery. The existing review announced a few years ago identified £35Bn of waste and efficiency savings, with only one year to go only £11Bn has been found.
Squiffy.
Friday, 26 March 2010
Tax cuts for a while, tax rises for ever
In the budget on Wednesday, Alistair Darling announced a two year cut in stamp duty for properties up to £250,000. He announced that it would be funded by an increase to 5% of stamp duty on properties over £1M.
Remember that tax raises, by this Government are by stealth. So you can bet your bottom dollar that if Labour get re-elected the tax cut will stop as planned in two years, but the tax rise will continue.
Also, it wasn’t mentioned on Wednesday but the tax allowances have been frozen for the year. That is an effective tax rise for every taxpayer in the country. Expect more of the same, Liam Byrne’s statement that there are no reasons for further tax rises looks pretty unbelievable now. It’s noted that he hasn’t re-made that assertion since that day on the Daily Politics!
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 24 March 2010
Budget 2010: The verdict
Odourless Crap.
There was no new information on the budget deficits. All the announcements of ‘savings’ and ‘efficiencies’ were made in December, so nothing new. Some tax increases on the cost of living. A tiny giveaway. That’s about all.
He did talk about ‘saved money’ when referring to the deficit being lower – which as I said early is not ‘saved money’, it is ‘not borrowed money’. Creating a quango to make sure that banks lend money to firms which they deem to be too risky is weird. How did we get into the credit crunch? by dodgy lending!
Apparently VAT will be added to stamps. Stamp duty taken away somewhere to be added elsewhere!
Closing offshore tax havens in Belize was just pettiness. Shows what kind of Government we have, regulations to target one person. Vindictiveness.
If the polls stay steady his ‘say nothing’ budget will have worked. I hope not, but then I can’t understand how 30% of the people say they would vote for this corrupt, spiteful, disorganized, incompetent and useless Government.
Squiffy.
Budget 2010: An opportunity to do the right thing
Today’s Budget is the last opportunity for this Government to do the right thing. After 10 years of throwing money at every problem, there is none left. The deficit may come in at under £178Bn and that should be welcomed, but that does not allow for new spending – it is still debt. Any money below the £178Bn figure is not excess, it is money that has not been borrowed, it is money that hasn’t been created from thin air.
If Alistair Darling says ‘investment’ today, he means spending that he can’t afford. If he announces any give aways today there should be a march on parliament saying ‘give us our money back’.
He should announce ways to pay back the huge debt that his Government has built up. If there is any increase in taxes, even by stealth, it tells us that Liam Byrne was wrong two weeks ago. If the Government can u-turn in two weeks then we know what will happen after an election. New taxes.
If he doesn’t pay back much debt, or fails to outline a plan, the currency will plummet when he sits down. It will be the most reliable verdict. After each budget or autumn statement, Labour’s poll ratings have plummeted. If it happens this time it may be game over. It’s a balancing act between the people’s verdict and the market’s.
I suspect there will be a few give-aways and no plan to pay back the debt. I expect to feel very disappointed, and poorer, today.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 23 March 2010
The LibDems contradiction
If you take a look at the LibDems policy document you will see two contradictory policy statements, showing confused thinking:
Fairer local taxes: Scrap the unfair Council Tax – The Council Tax is an unfair tax which bears no relationship to the ability to pay. Liberal Democrats believe that it should be scrapped and replaced with a fair local tax, based on people’s ability to pay. We will pilot a fair local income tax in areas that choose to try it out.
Cutting taxes for people on low and middle incomes - … The change will be paid for by introducing a mansion tax…
It’s interesting that they hide the mansion tax away as a small sentence rather than give it the headline section that it demanded when Vince announced it at conference.
The Lib Dems state that they want fairness, and that they want to get rid of the council tax because it ‘bears no relationship to the ability to pay’ whereas they are happy for a property tax even if it ‘bears no relationship to the ability to pay’ just as long as the property is a big one.
Muddled me thinks.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
The funding of Unite
Unite has paid the Labour party £11M in the last few years. Where does Unite get its money from? From its members you may say. True, but did you know that it got £4.5M from the taxpayer, in the form of a Union Modernisation Fund?
It’s quite hard to see what modernisation has occurred in the current dispute. Similarly to other beneficiaries such as the RMT, the unions still act like dinosaurs. Why does a union need money from the taxpayer when they have their own member’s contributions?
The fund was established by this Labour Government, and isn’t it scandalous that it can give the taxpayers money away only to receive it back into its own party coffers. It’s a form of money laundering that should be stamped out!
Squiffy.
Bahrain: The Verdict
After the hype of leading up to the first Grand Prix of the year, with 8 possible World Champions and 4 teams in with a shout of winning, it’s probably not surprising that the talk after the race was of a procession and that something needs to be done.
I’d say hold your horses. People have short memories, there were plenty of races in the days of refueling when there was no overtaking – in fact there was more overtaking in this race than many others!
The disappointment for me was that the tyres were not as marginal as they could have been. At present, Bridgestone bring two compounds of tyres, one hard, one softer to each race. They deem the hard tyre (or the ‘prime’ tyre) to be the one more likely to be useful for the race and the soft (or ‘option’) tyre to be more apt for qualifying – even though they have to use both for the race. They pick which is the hard tyre compound based on previous seasons.
My suggestion is that they go one or maybe two compounds softer for both, making them have more grip to aid overtaking but more marginal and so more drop off in performance as they get worn. Forget talk of mandatory two pitstops, it would happen naturally!
Squiffy.
Friday, 12 March 2010
The Tories go open source
In a welcome announcement yesterday the Tories said that they would support open source and go down a more agile route to Government IT if they get elected.
For those that don’t understand anything I’ve just said this means an end to the huge corporates such as IBM, Accenture and EDS locked into nearly every Government IT contract. They usually overspend, come in late and provide a large bloated system which barely does what was intended. You’d think that after each project the Government would say, hey why don’t we try someone else, but in effect they go around in a cycle trying each one in turn until they start at the beginning again. Nothing changes.
Until now. The idea of going open source is to stop the huge procurement of expensive systems. They would buy something off the shelf and then use many thousands of developers around the world, who develop for free/fun to customize it to the required use. Open source is the way to go. Anyone who religiously buys Microsoft Office, should instead think about downloading OpenOffice. It’s an equivalent which does just about as much – why does it need to be MS Word if all you’re going to write is a letter?
Think of the thousands of pounds which could be saved by not being locked into Microsoft.
The idea is to get small systems and components (which are easily testable) to work together, rather than the monolithic huge databases such as the new NHS IT system which is years late and cost many extra billions.
The other announcement was that they would employ a small in-house development team, this team would take on small projects but would also be used to advise on new systems and make recommendations. Surely it’s a good idea to get experts to make these kinds of decisions rather than ministers who can’t tell their ASSP from their EPROM (*).
While they’re at it, they should make sure every large company they work with uses Agile methodology and that a Government IT project manager sits in the Agile Scrums and planning sessions.(*)
At last, maybe a Government with some nous. Hopefully they’ll get rid of IR35 tax legislation – which costs more to regulate than it brings in. But you can’t have everything.
Squiffy.
*Excuse the geekery
Thursday, 11 March 2010
F1 2010 is here
The first race of the 2010 F1 season will be this weekend. I thought I'd give you my thoughts on the states of the teams.
Mercedes
The championship team has a struggle on its hands to retain the title this year. Ross Brawn admitted that the work on this year's car was delayed by last year's battle.
The biggest change is that Michael Schumacher is on board, and we all know that he is an immense talent and I don't expect his 3 years away to have dented his skills. Nico Rosberg must have expected to face Jenson Button as a team mate and might have rated his chances, but the team will quickly focus on Schumacher unless Nico can pull out some stellar performances. Judging by his speed, it may be possible but he has to cut down on the errors which marred 2009.
The ingredients should be there for the car to be one of the best, but testing has shown that it may be a fraction off the pace of McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull. A diffuser update is scheduled to appear for the first race, maybe it will return the team to the top.
Red Bull
The RB5 was the best car of 2009. Unfortunately, they didn't have the double diffuser at the start of the year and it hurt their title chances. Not so this year, but Adrian Newey's cars have always pushed the envelope to the limit and risk reliability in the pursuit of speed. Testing shows the same trend, an ultra fast car with some reliability concerns. There may also be issues regarding tyre degradation.
The RB5 also set the trend for this year's cars, which have copied the best features from last year (apart from pull-rod suspension). Sebastien Vettel and Mark Webber will battle it out again this year and it's hard to see Vettel not making it to champion in the next few years. It could very well be this year if he eliminates the mistakes and the car holds together. I would expect Mark Webber to win a few more wins, but the amazing qualifying performances have been beaten by Vettel and unless he can reverse this trend he will not make it to champion.
McLaren
Last year started appallingly for McLaren, they were three seconds behind the competition and that is not a position the team is used to. In an amazing turnaround, they won a race by the middle of the year and go into this year with one of the fastest cars. In testing both Lewis Hamilton and new team mate Jenson Button have told how the car is very fast and reliable.
After Hamilton's bad start to last year, he is looking very fast and should be a contender this year. He faces the new World Champion Jenson Button and the rivalry should be gentlemanly but intense. Most expect Hamilton to be faster, and I agree, but maybe Button's smooth driving style will reap dividends when carrying a full fuel load by saving the life of his tyres. It will be fascinating.
Ferrari
The Ferrari has been looking like one of the fastest cars this year in testing. I was skeptical, that ending development of last year’s car so soon would be a good idea, especially as there were so many development opportunities to exploit in the new regulations and so little testing. It looks like they may have produced a corker and if Fernando Alonso is to be believed they have not been showing their true pace, which must be truly astounding!
Now that Kimi Raikkonen has decided to join the gravel trippers, Massa has to face his third World Champion in Fernando Alonso. I don’t suppose that it will faze him, and neither will the injury he faced at last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix. It will be interesting to see how the two men square up, Alonso with a competitive car again will want to add to his tally and Massa has to show that he can beat Alonso in the same way that he did Raikkonen. It will also be fascinating to watch the Alonso vs Hamilton vs Schumacher battle.
Renault
The Renault team are going through some big changes. Both drivers, the management and ownership have changed. The livery is back to being the yellow and black of the early 80's and they may even be adorned with Lada motifs! Last years car was ugly, and slow. Testing times have not shown a major improvement and so this maybe a 'building' year.
On the driver front, Robert Kubica has moved from BMW and looks very comfortable in his new surroundings. Unfortunately it looks like he jumped at the wrong moment because the BMW Sauber is looking good. He will be fast and consistent but it may be very difficult for him to find himself on the podium this season. His team mate, Vitaly Petrov is the first Russian in F1 and has a big challenge on his hands. He has a very fast team mate and needs to show that Rookies can make a difference after the poor showing from Piquet Jr and Grosjean.
BMW Sauber
Although the team is still called BMW, this is largely back to being a privateer run team by Peter Sauber. He runs a tight ship and although the new car does look a bit ugly testing times have shown that this car maybe the dark horse of the season. It is especially kind to its tyres and this may show dividends in the latter laps as they can pick off cars in trouble.
Pedro de la Rosa is back racing full time after the mini season he had in 2006. He is a good steady hand and will bring lots of experience from McLaren. No wins expected but he may make it to the podium on occasion. His team mate is Kamui Kobayashi who shone in the last two races of 2009. It's been a long time coming for a Japanese driver to really stand out, but maybe Kamui can be the real deal. If he continues where he left off I wouldn't be surprised if he got the odd podium.
Williams
I have a real soft spot for Williams, ever since Nigel Mansell drove for the team. It is a team of real racers, and their return to the top flight is long overdue. Last year's car showed consistency which had been lacking in the previous three seasons, but was still a disappointment when the points tally was counted. This year let's hope for better. They are back to using the Cosworth engine which should be fast but hopefully more reliable since they last used them.
Rubens Barrichello is in the last few years of his career but showed last year that he can still make wins when in the right car. If he can show consistent pace then he may put the Williams as best of the rest, after the top four. His team mate is Nico Hulkenberg, who's pace is looking very good. So far I think that Nico will show himself to be the best rookie.
Force India
This team visibly grew last year. With support from McLaren and the Mercedes engine, the late season update package added an extra second to the pace. In Spa they came very close to winning! If the same dynamics are in place then this team could show some surprises.
Unfortunately, last year's best showing was in the hands of Giancarlo Fisichello and after he ran off to Ferrari to never be seen again, the team is reliant on Adrian Sutil and Vitantonio Liuzzi. Both have been able to show speed on occasion but are too inconsistent to trouble the front runners on a regular basis.
Toro Rosso
A big change for this year in that they have to build their own car. It's no surprise that the car is a development of last year's Red Bull. I expect the team to snatch the odd point, but I don't expect them to trouble the middle field too often as this plucky team is now into a better financed Minardi type position.
The drivers are still Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari, but apart from the odd show of speed, neither has stood out.
Virgin F1
The first of the new teams with a car based entirely on computation fluid dynamics, will find it a struggle. Both this team and the new Lotus seem to be around 6 seconds off the pace, but I don't think we're in a position where CFD can entirely replace the wind tunnel. I expect the Lotus to attach itself to the back of the midfield leaving Virgin in its wake.
Timo Glock is a good driver who shone at times last year, and I expect him to lead this team to midfield-dom. If he is very lucky, he may even snatch a point in an incident fuelled race. So far it is unclear to see what speed Lucas Di Grassi has due to the lack of true pace shown by the cars.
Lotus Racing
It's welcome to see the Lotus name back in racing, albeit in this different guise. The car is slow right now, but with the experienced Mike Gascoyne as the technical director I expect this team to be the best of the newbies.
The team has a very experienced line-up with Jarno Trulli and Heikki Kovalainen, both with something to prove. Jarno needs to show how he can make a difference to a new team, helping to develop it whereas Heikki needs to show that two years as Hamilton's team mate has not destroyed his basic speed.
Hispania F1
This team is the big unknown, until recently named as Campos it is now named as Hispania or for short HRT F1. Whoever thought that was a good idea? The car has not been shown yet so we have nothing to go on.
The drivers are Bruno Senna, trying to show that he has the skill of his uncle and Karun Chandhok who I know very little about apart from being India's second F1 driver.
That's my preview. I think it will be Alonso or Hamilton as driver's champion with Ferrari as constructors, but we only have a few hours to find out whether the winter testing times were anywhere near accurate. I can't wait.
F1 is go.
Squiffy.
Mercedes
The championship team has a struggle on its hands to retain the title this year. Ross Brawn admitted that the work on this year's car was delayed by last year's battle.
The biggest change is that Michael Schumacher is on board, and we all know that he is an immense talent and I don't expect his 3 years away to have dented his skills. Nico Rosberg must have expected to face Jenson Button as a team mate and might have rated his chances, but the team will quickly focus on Schumacher unless Nico can pull out some stellar performances. Judging by his speed, it may be possible but he has to cut down on the errors which marred 2009.
The ingredients should be there for the car to be one of the best, but testing has shown that it may be a fraction off the pace of McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull. A diffuser update is scheduled to appear for the first race, maybe it will return the team to the top.
Red Bull
The RB5 was the best car of 2009. Unfortunately, they didn't have the double diffuser at the start of the year and it hurt their title chances. Not so this year, but Adrian Newey's cars have always pushed the envelope to the limit and risk reliability in the pursuit of speed. Testing shows the same trend, an ultra fast car with some reliability concerns. There may also be issues regarding tyre degradation.
The RB5 also set the trend for this year's cars, which have copied the best features from last year (apart from pull-rod suspension). Sebastien Vettel and Mark Webber will battle it out again this year and it's hard to see Vettel not making it to champion in the next few years. It could very well be this year if he eliminates the mistakes and the car holds together. I would expect Mark Webber to win a few more wins, but the amazing qualifying performances have been beaten by Vettel and unless he can reverse this trend he will not make it to champion.
McLaren
Last year started appallingly for McLaren, they were three seconds behind the competition and that is not a position the team is used to. In an amazing turnaround, they won a race by the middle of the year and go into this year with one of the fastest cars. In testing both Lewis Hamilton and new team mate Jenson Button have told how the car is very fast and reliable.
After Hamilton's bad start to last year, he is looking very fast and should be a contender this year. He faces the new World Champion Jenson Button and the rivalry should be gentlemanly but intense. Most expect Hamilton to be faster, and I agree, but maybe Button's smooth driving style will reap dividends when carrying a full fuel load by saving the life of his tyres. It will be fascinating.
Ferrari
The Ferrari has been looking like one of the fastest cars this year in testing. I was skeptical, that ending development of last year’s car so soon would be a good idea, especially as there were so many development opportunities to exploit in the new regulations and so little testing. It looks like they may have produced a corker and if Fernando Alonso is to be believed they have not been showing their true pace, which must be truly astounding!
Now that Kimi Raikkonen has decided to join the gravel trippers, Massa has to face his third World Champion in Fernando Alonso. I don’t suppose that it will faze him, and neither will the injury he faced at last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix. It will be interesting to see how the two men square up, Alonso with a competitive car again will want to add to his tally and Massa has to show that he can beat Alonso in the same way that he did Raikkonen. It will also be fascinating to watch the Alonso vs Hamilton vs Schumacher battle.
Renault
The Renault team are going through some big changes. Both drivers, the management and ownership have changed. The livery is back to being the yellow and black of the early 80's and they may even be adorned with Lada motifs! Last years car was ugly, and slow. Testing times have not shown a major improvement and so this maybe a 'building' year.
On the driver front, Robert Kubica has moved from BMW and looks very comfortable in his new surroundings. Unfortunately it looks like he jumped at the wrong moment because the BMW Sauber is looking good. He will be fast and consistent but it may be very difficult for him to find himself on the podium this season. His team mate, Vitaly Petrov is the first Russian in F1 and has a big challenge on his hands. He has a very fast team mate and needs to show that Rookies can make a difference after the poor showing from Piquet Jr and Grosjean.
BMW Sauber
Although the team is still called BMW, this is largely back to being a privateer run team by Peter Sauber. He runs a tight ship and although the new car does look a bit ugly testing times have shown that this car maybe the dark horse of the season. It is especially kind to its tyres and this may show dividends in the latter laps as they can pick off cars in trouble.
Pedro de la Rosa is back racing full time after the mini season he had in 2006. He is a good steady hand and will bring lots of experience from McLaren. No wins expected but he may make it to the podium on occasion. His team mate is Kamui Kobayashi who shone in the last two races of 2009. It's been a long time coming for a Japanese driver to really stand out, but maybe Kamui can be the real deal. If he continues where he left off I wouldn't be surprised if he got the odd podium.
Williams
I have a real soft spot for Williams, ever since Nigel Mansell drove for the team. It is a team of real racers, and their return to the top flight is long overdue. Last year's car showed consistency which had been lacking in the previous three seasons, but was still a disappointment when the points tally was counted. This year let's hope for better. They are back to using the Cosworth engine which should be fast but hopefully more reliable since they last used them.
Rubens Barrichello is in the last few years of his career but showed last year that he can still make wins when in the right car. If he can show consistent pace then he may put the Williams as best of the rest, after the top four. His team mate is Nico Hulkenberg, who's pace is looking very good. So far I think that Nico will show himself to be the best rookie.
Force India
This team visibly grew last year. With support from McLaren and the Mercedes engine, the late season update package added an extra second to the pace. In Spa they came very close to winning! If the same dynamics are in place then this team could show some surprises.
Unfortunately, last year's best showing was in the hands of Giancarlo Fisichello and after he ran off to Ferrari to never be seen again, the team is reliant on Adrian Sutil and Vitantonio Liuzzi. Both have been able to show speed on occasion but are too inconsistent to trouble the front runners on a regular basis.
Toro Rosso
A big change for this year in that they have to build their own car. It's no surprise that the car is a development of last year's Red Bull. I expect the team to snatch the odd point, but I don't expect them to trouble the middle field too often as this plucky team is now into a better financed Minardi type position.
The drivers are still Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari, but apart from the odd show of speed, neither has stood out.
Virgin F1
The first of the new teams with a car based entirely on computation fluid dynamics, will find it a struggle. Both this team and the new Lotus seem to be around 6 seconds off the pace, but I don't think we're in a position where CFD can entirely replace the wind tunnel. I expect the Lotus to attach itself to the back of the midfield leaving Virgin in its wake.
Timo Glock is a good driver who shone at times last year, and I expect him to lead this team to midfield-dom. If he is very lucky, he may even snatch a point in an incident fuelled race. So far it is unclear to see what speed Lucas Di Grassi has due to the lack of true pace shown by the cars.
Lotus Racing
It's welcome to see the Lotus name back in racing, albeit in this different guise. The car is slow right now, but with the experienced Mike Gascoyne as the technical director I expect this team to be the best of the newbies.
The team has a very experienced line-up with Jarno Trulli and Heikki Kovalainen, both with something to prove. Jarno needs to show how he can make a difference to a new team, helping to develop it whereas Heikki needs to show that two years as Hamilton's team mate has not destroyed his basic speed.
Hispania F1
This team is the big unknown, until recently named as Campos it is now named as Hispania or for short HRT F1. Whoever thought that was a good idea? The car has not been shown yet so we have nothing to go on.
The drivers are Bruno Senna, trying to show that he has the skill of his uncle and Karun Chandhok who I know very little about apart from being India's second F1 driver.
That's my preview. I think it will be Alonso or Hamilton as driver's champion with Ferrari as constructors, but we only have a few hours to find out whether the winter testing times were anywhere near accurate. I can't wait.
F1 is go.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Budget on 24th March, Election on 6th May (prob), not much time for debate
Is it just my cynicism that makes me think that the late date for the budget is designed to limit the debate about the measures announced?
It will need to be voted on very quickly to enact laws for the next financial year and to allow it to be passed for a May 6th election to be called. Either they don’t want it to be debated in depth (of course) or Alistair and Gordon couldn’t agree (of course too)! Probably both.
Squiffy.
Monday, 8 March 2010
A counterfictional - What if Gordon Brown had called the election last weekend?
I thought I'd write a story in the form of a counterfactual. In fact, since the story is written as a view from 2022, it's a counterfictional!
The 2010 general election was one of the more exciting elections of the early 21st century. It brought in the three term Cameron Government, the realignment of the left and the splintering of the Labour movement. The election was a close affair, with polls showing a small lead for the Conservatives right until the last week of the election, when Secretary-gate derailed the Labour campaign.
When the election was called at the end of March, the Tories had a 3% lead in the polls. This steadily grew as the impact of the National Insurance tax rises were felt, and the electorate realized that the newly announced increases in VAT (to 19%) and a further penny on NI would further hit them in the pocket. A hammer blow to the Labour campaign came on the 23rd April when the recovering economy slipped back into recession posting a decline of 0.2% GDP.
The big turning point in the race came the following Sunday, when footage was released showing a recording on a mobile phone of the Prime Minister shouting and throwing newspapers in the face of a secretary after she had shown him reports of the second leaders debate. He had done badly when talking about the economy in the debate, when he said that after the current recession there would be no more returns to boom and bust.
Even the Daily Mirror turned against the PM when images of the crying woman were shown on TV pictures over and over again. Labour slumped to 26% and the Tories were returned to power with an 80 seat majority.
David Cameron went on to cut public spending, bringing back strong growth for the 2014 election which he went on to win strongly. The reforms to the public services allowed them to increase productivity against the economic backdrop, the schools reforms led to many new community schools being created by motivated parents moving Britain up the international league tables. The major disappointment has been the failure to tackle 'Broken Britain' as Britain still has too many problems in society.
Meanwhile the Labour party fell apart. After the election Gordon Brown resigned immediately. Harriet Harman, the deputy leader, took over in a caretaker capacity and built enough support to mount a leadership campaign against Ed Balls and David Milliband. In the end she won, after Ed Balls was knocked out and his support transferred to Harman. With that support she beat Milliband by 61% to 39%, and started to put forward a left leaning shadow cabinet.
Harriet Harman appointed Ed Balls as the shadow Chancellor and Yvette Cooper as shadow Foreign Secretary. The husband and wife team making history in the process as they got two of the three top jobs, albeit in a shadow capacity. Things started well, but soon soured when David Milliband resigned as shadow Home Secretary after being under pressure to dismiss half the male police chief super-intendants to promote female counterparts.
Milliband's resignation citing 'Political correctness gone mad' started the downfall of Labour as a ruling power. After the proposed 60% tax rate on earnings above £200,000 was accepted by Harriet Harman, quickly followed by an 80% tax for bankers alone judged by the 'court of opinion', 97 MPs on the right of the party defected to the Liberal Democrats, making them the new official opposition. At subsequent elections, Labour support haemorrhaged further to the low levels of 24 MPs we see today.
It could all be so different. What would have happened if Gordon Brown had called an election on the weekend of the 27th February?
The Tories had been losing ground to Labour since the beginning of the year and the lead had contracted to 6%. Then a poll on the eve of the Tory Spring Conference gave them only a lead of 2%. Gordon Brown talked to his advisers during a trip to his Welsh conference that weekend and decided that he should grasp the nettle. With the lead so narrow he could hope to turn the election result into a hung parliament at the very least.
David Cameron made a good speech at the Tory conference, but this was trumped by the evening when Gordon Brown announced on television that he would be going to the Palace the next day to ask for a dissolution of Parliament. The headlines the next day told the public that the game was on.
After one day of finishing the business of Parliament, the 'duck-island parliament' was consigned to history and the nation rejoiced. Or they would do, if they hadn't to face one of the most bruising election campaigns in history.
Gordon Brown and David Cameron immediately set off on trips to the marginal constituencies, whilst their campaign teams started to get the election literature printed. There had been some questions in the press around who was leading the Tory election campaign effort, with disagreements being cited between Steve Hilton, Andy Coulson and George Osborne. The snap election gave them no time to fully sort out the details and this would come to hurt them later in the campaign.
On the Friday, the day when Gordon Brown should have been facing the Iraq inquiry, which was now suspended, Labour launched their manifesto. Their message was upbeat about Cancer care, halving the deficit and care for the elderly. The Tories were still trying to nail down how to provide their married couples tax incentive and so their mainfesto was delayed.
The first leaders debate came and went the following Thursday with no-one coming out on top. David Cameron did himself no favours when he looked evasive over the couples tax allowance and Gordon Brown had some difficulty explaining why he had called the election now - was it due to the polls? He had mislead the public once before by saying that calling off an election was on no account of the polls.
The polls were still showing a slight Tory lead but the Lib-dems had eaten a couple of points of both main parties. The Tory manifesto was published the following Monday showing an agreed plan for shared allowances for families with children under the age of 5. Some of the right wing press and the influential ConservativeHome website lambasted the tame policy calling it a non-policy.
There were further problems for the Tories when it became clear that confusion in the campaign team was causing scheduling difficulties. One school in Norwich suspended lessons for the morning waiting for the Tory leader to arrive whilst he was shaking hands at a hospital in Ipswitch. The headteacher went onto TV to accuse the Tory leader of not being interested in her school children's education.
Meanwhile, Gordon Brown continued his tour of the marginals. A viral poster campaign showing the Tory leader in riding breeches chasing down a fox caused a political storm but highlighted the Tory leader's position on fox hunting and his upper class background.
Going into the third week of the campaign Labour had pulled ahead slightly in the polls. Mr Brown faced a difficult situation when he was berated by an angry pensioner in Ealing. He made policy on the hoof and announced that there would be a 50% reduction in council tax for over 70's in the next budget. It had worked before in 2005, and he was determined to put the Tories on the back foot. No-one knew whether he had meant it for a year, like in 2005, or longer, but the Tory poster attacking the cynicism backfired when he announced in the final debate that it was policy for the entire length of the next parliament. Financing the policy became a question that the Tories constantly asked, but the Prime Minister refused to state where the money would come from.
The new policy added an extra point to Labour's slim lead in the days following his announcement, but David Cameron forcefully put the message across that he could not go on making spending pledges while promising to half the deficit in the final leaders debate. This brought the parties level on 37% going into election day.
After a fraught day with many recounts, the polls were shown to overstate Labour support but the result was that the Tories were short of a majority by 10 seats. With the Lib Dems demanding electoral reform to provide support, the Conservatives went it alone as a minority administration.
Initially, the Tories seemed to be reasonably popular and the new PM had good approval ratings. David Cameron's Queen's speech showed that he would try to push through equal sizes of consistuency seats and a reduction of MPs to 500. Although this was designed to level the playing field and remove Labour bias, it was not well received by the public, and gerrymandering accusations seemed to stick. Other bills had public support, but everything hinged on whether the emergency budget could be passed.
The reduction of 10% in the education budget proved to be especially unpopular and Labour and the Lib Dems promised to vote against the budget. The Tories believed that showing resolve would win out, even if they had to face a new election. This theory was soon to be tested when they lost the Budget bill amid raucous scenes in the House of Commons.
Gordon Brown again led Labour into the second election, he had stayed on after defeat for just this circumstance. He had gained in popularity against the 'mean' Government, and Labour was now 2% ahead of the Tories in polls which had reduced Labour's weighting. The election was dominated by the deficit again, and Mr Brown's decision to abandon Trident to finance a small increase in the education budget and reduce the deficit proved popular. His late conversion to the AV+ system for Westminster, as espoused by Roy Jenkins, brought added support from Lib Dems and going into election day Labour were 6% ahead.
Again the polls had overestimated Labour support but they emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament, 5 short of an overall majority. After a weekend of deals between the parties, David Cameron resigned and Gordon Brown was reinstated as Prime Minister. Nick Clegg had announced earlier that he could not work with Gordon Brown, but the promised PR referendum swung him.
With a reasonable combined majority, budget votes would not be a problem for the popular new Chancellor, Vince Cable, but he was the victim of vicious briefing, believed to be coming from the new Home Secretary Ed Balls. The tensions within the Government continued to rise and with the PR referendum won in May 2011, Nick Clegg demanded that Gordon Brown sack his long time friend. When Mr Brown refused, Nick Clegg demanded that the PM resign to keep the coalition intact.
Very surprisingly for everyone who knew Mr Brown, he agreed. The last year had been exhausting for the PM and he couldn't carry on fighting for his political life. He was replaced by Ed Milliband, beating his brother by 8% in the Labour electoral college vote. He faced the new Tory leader, Jeremy Hunt, at the dispatch box for the next two years until the coalition fell apart over the proposed 100 days detention without trial legislation.
Nobody would have expected in those days, for PM Hunt to lead a Con-Lib coalition with David Laws as his deputy but as his third term gets under way its interesting to see what might have been.
Squiffy.
The 2010 general election was one of the more exciting elections of the early 21st century. It brought in the three term Cameron Government, the realignment of the left and the splintering of the Labour movement. The election was a close affair, with polls showing a small lead for the Conservatives right until the last week of the election, when Secretary-gate derailed the Labour campaign.
When the election was called at the end of March, the Tories had a 3% lead in the polls. This steadily grew as the impact of the National Insurance tax rises were felt, and the electorate realized that the newly announced increases in VAT (to 19%) and a further penny on NI would further hit them in the pocket. A hammer blow to the Labour campaign came on the 23rd April when the recovering economy slipped back into recession posting a decline of 0.2% GDP.
The big turning point in the race came the following Sunday, when footage was released showing a recording on a mobile phone of the Prime Minister shouting and throwing newspapers in the face of a secretary after she had shown him reports of the second leaders debate. He had done badly when talking about the economy in the debate, when he said that after the current recession there would be no more returns to boom and bust.
Even the Daily Mirror turned against the PM when images of the crying woman were shown on TV pictures over and over again. Labour slumped to 26% and the Tories were returned to power with an 80 seat majority.
David Cameron went on to cut public spending, bringing back strong growth for the 2014 election which he went on to win strongly. The reforms to the public services allowed them to increase productivity against the economic backdrop, the schools reforms led to many new community schools being created by motivated parents moving Britain up the international league tables. The major disappointment has been the failure to tackle 'Broken Britain' as Britain still has too many problems in society.
Meanwhile the Labour party fell apart. After the election Gordon Brown resigned immediately. Harriet Harman, the deputy leader, took over in a caretaker capacity and built enough support to mount a leadership campaign against Ed Balls and David Milliband. In the end she won, after Ed Balls was knocked out and his support transferred to Harman. With that support she beat Milliband by 61% to 39%, and started to put forward a left leaning shadow cabinet.
Harriet Harman appointed Ed Balls as the shadow Chancellor and Yvette Cooper as shadow Foreign Secretary. The husband and wife team making history in the process as they got two of the three top jobs, albeit in a shadow capacity. Things started well, but soon soured when David Milliband resigned as shadow Home Secretary after being under pressure to dismiss half the male police chief super-intendants to promote female counterparts.
Milliband's resignation citing 'Political correctness gone mad' started the downfall of Labour as a ruling power. After the proposed 60% tax rate on earnings above £200,000 was accepted by Harriet Harman, quickly followed by an 80% tax for bankers alone judged by the 'court of opinion', 97 MPs on the right of the party defected to the Liberal Democrats, making them the new official opposition. At subsequent elections, Labour support haemorrhaged further to the low levels of 24 MPs we see today.
It could all be so different. What would have happened if Gordon Brown had called an election on the weekend of the 27th February?
The Tories had been losing ground to Labour since the beginning of the year and the lead had contracted to 6%. Then a poll on the eve of the Tory Spring Conference gave them only a lead of 2%. Gordon Brown talked to his advisers during a trip to his Welsh conference that weekend and decided that he should grasp the nettle. With the lead so narrow he could hope to turn the election result into a hung parliament at the very least.
David Cameron made a good speech at the Tory conference, but this was trumped by the evening when Gordon Brown announced on television that he would be going to the Palace the next day to ask for a dissolution of Parliament. The headlines the next day told the public that the game was on.
After one day of finishing the business of Parliament, the 'duck-island parliament' was consigned to history and the nation rejoiced. Or they would do, if they hadn't to face one of the most bruising election campaigns in history.
Gordon Brown and David Cameron immediately set off on trips to the marginal constituencies, whilst their campaign teams started to get the election literature printed. There had been some questions in the press around who was leading the Tory election campaign effort, with disagreements being cited between Steve Hilton, Andy Coulson and George Osborne. The snap election gave them no time to fully sort out the details and this would come to hurt them later in the campaign.
On the Friday, the day when Gordon Brown should have been facing the Iraq inquiry, which was now suspended, Labour launched their manifesto. Their message was upbeat about Cancer care, halving the deficit and care for the elderly. The Tories were still trying to nail down how to provide their married couples tax incentive and so their mainfesto was delayed.
The first leaders debate came and went the following Thursday with no-one coming out on top. David Cameron did himself no favours when he looked evasive over the couples tax allowance and Gordon Brown had some difficulty explaining why he had called the election now - was it due to the polls? He had mislead the public once before by saying that calling off an election was on no account of the polls.
The polls were still showing a slight Tory lead but the Lib-dems had eaten a couple of points of both main parties. The Tory manifesto was published the following Monday showing an agreed plan for shared allowances for families with children under the age of 5. Some of the right wing press and the influential ConservativeHome website lambasted the tame policy calling it a non-policy.
There were further problems for the Tories when it became clear that confusion in the campaign team was causing scheduling difficulties. One school in Norwich suspended lessons for the morning waiting for the Tory leader to arrive whilst he was shaking hands at a hospital in Ipswitch. The headteacher went onto TV to accuse the Tory leader of not being interested in her school children's education.
Meanwhile, Gordon Brown continued his tour of the marginals. A viral poster campaign showing the Tory leader in riding breeches chasing down a fox caused a political storm but highlighted the Tory leader's position on fox hunting and his upper class background.
Going into the third week of the campaign Labour had pulled ahead slightly in the polls. Mr Brown faced a difficult situation when he was berated by an angry pensioner in Ealing. He made policy on the hoof and announced that there would be a 50% reduction in council tax for over 70's in the next budget. It had worked before in 2005, and he was determined to put the Tories on the back foot. No-one knew whether he had meant it for a year, like in 2005, or longer, but the Tory poster attacking the cynicism backfired when he announced in the final debate that it was policy for the entire length of the next parliament. Financing the policy became a question that the Tories constantly asked, but the Prime Minister refused to state where the money would come from.
The new policy added an extra point to Labour's slim lead in the days following his announcement, but David Cameron forcefully put the message across that he could not go on making spending pledges while promising to half the deficit in the final leaders debate. This brought the parties level on 37% going into election day.
After a fraught day with many recounts, the polls were shown to overstate Labour support but the result was that the Tories were short of a majority by 10 seats. With the Lib Dems demanding electoral reform to provide support, the Conservatives went it alone as a minority administration.
Initially, the Tories seemed to be reasonably popular and the new PM had good approval ratings. David Cameron's Queen's speech showed that he would try to push through equal sizes of consistuency seats and a reduction of MPs to 500. Although this was designed to level the playing field and remove Labour bias, it was not well received by the public, and gerrymandering accusations seemed to stick. Other bills had public support, but everything hinged on whether the emergency budget could be passed.
The reduction of 10% in the education budget proved to be especially unpopular and Labour and the Lib Dems promised to vote against the budget. The Tories believed that showing resolve would win out, even if they had to face a new election. This theory was soon to be tested when they lost the Budget bill amid raucous scenes in the House of Commons.
Gordon Brown again led Labour into the second election, he had stayed on after defeat for just this circumstance. He had gained in popularity against the 'mean' Government, and Labour was now 2% ahead of the Tories in polls which had reduced Labour's weighting. The election was dominated by the deficit again, and Mr Brown's decision to abandon Trident to finance a small increase in the education budget and reduce the deficit proved popular. His late conversion to the AV+ system for Westminster, as espoused by Roy Jenkins, brought added support from Lib Dems and going into election day Labour were 6% ahead.
Again the polls had overestimated Labour support but they emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament, 5 short of an overall majority. After a weekend of deals between the parties, David Cameron resigned and Gordon Brown was reinstated as Prime Minister. Nick Clegg had announced earlier that he could not work with Gordon Brown, but the promised PR referendum swung him.
With a reasonable combined majority, budget votes would not be a problem for the popular new Chancellor, Vince Cable, but he was the victim of vicious briefing, believed to be coming from the new Home Secretary Ed Balls. The tensions within the Government continued to rise and with the PR referendum won in May 2011, Nick Clegg demanded that Gordon Brown sack his long time friend. When Mr Brown refused, Nick Clegg demanded that the PM resign to keep the coalition intact.
Very surprisingly for everyone who knew Mr Brown, he agreed. The last year had been exhausting for the PM and he couldn't carry on fighting for his political life. He was replaced by Ed Milliband, beating his brother by 8% in the Labour electoral college vote. He faced the new Tory leader, Jeremy Hunt, at the dispatch box for the next two years until the coalition fell apart over the proposed 100 days detention without trial legislation.
Nobody would have expected in those days, for PM Hunt to lead a Con-Lib coalition with David Laws as his deputy but as his third term gets under way its interesting to see what might have been.
Squiffy.
Saturday, 6 March 2010
Gordon Brown : Dissembling and disingenuous
That's the verdict on Gordon Brown's performance at the Iraq inquiry. Lords Boyce and Guthrie, both ex-chiefs of the defence staff, have given their opinions on Mr Brown's funding of equipment for Iraq and Afghanistan.
It looks like he used a form of words which is technically correct, but hides the bigger truth that he resisted extra funding for equipment which would have saved lives.
I know which ones I believe, and I think it is a disgrace.
Squiffy.
It looks like he used a form of words which is technically correct, but hides the bigger truth that he resisted extra funding for equipment which would have saved lives.
I know which ones I believe, and I think it is a disgrace.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 3 March 2010
Harriet's performance was woeful
She had a one track mind, ‘I must make my points on Michael Ashcroft’ and forgot why she was there – to answer questions. She couldn’t even tell the difference between a question on Sterling and Gilts. It really reflected bad on her and the House in general (and she’s its leader), woe betide us if she ever makes it to the leadership.
Hague 7 points
Hattie 0 points.
Squiffy.
Rest In Peace, Michael Foot
It’s just been announced that Michael Foot, the ex-leader of the Labour party has died at the age of 96. He has two major distinctions, one for being a towering intellectual on the left of the Labour party during the 60’s, 70’s and early 80’s, and secondly as being in charge when Labour produced ‘the longest suicide note in history’ in the form of its 1983 manifesto.
He was a House of Commons man through and through and made some fantastic speeches at the dispatch box. I once nearly knocked him over in The Freemasons Arms in Hampstead and quickly apologized, he was tottering around on two walking sticks with a helper. He loved Hampstead and would often be seen in the area.
Rest In Peach, Michael.
Squiffy.
Monday, 1 March 2010
Michael Ashcroft's tax status
It has become an ever increasing bore to listen to interviewers asking Tory politicians about the tax status of Michael Ashcroft. The Tories have been made to sound evasive because they have not pried into another person’s tax status.
Finally though, Mr Ashcroft has clarified his own statement on his website, detailed by Ian Dale. In it he states that he stopped being the UN representative for Belize, re-took residence in the UK and started to declare all his taxable income to HMRC. In effect he became a Non-Dom, much the same as many Labour donors such as Lord Paul.
When did he do this? In 2000, so for the last 9 years we’ve had question after question, journos digging into his private affairs and now we know the truth. He didn’t do anything wrong at all.
I hope the matter can be put to rest now.
Squiffy.
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