One more mistake could lead to an F1 surprise

I've been mulling a possible scenario which may lead to unexpected turn of events in F1 at the end of the season.

Ferrari has the fastest car, marginally faster than the Mercedes, but Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes lead the World Championships. The reason being that Sebastien Vettel has made four serious point scoring errors and is now thirty points behind his rival.

Vettel will now be under immense pressure to deliver the first Ferrari World Championship since 2007. It is apparent too that Vettel does not always handle pressure well and it drives him to make more mistakes. Hamilton now makes very few mistakes, his disastrous 2011 season is well behind him.

What if, with a decisive car advantage, Vettel is unable to cut out the mistakes and bring the championship home? The Italian press will be in revolt and pressing for a change. But it will be clear who is at fault. Could Vettel be sacked at the end of the season? It's not unusual for Ferrari to sack a multiple World Champion, they did it to Alain Prost at the end of 1991 after he criticised the car. This time the crime will be more serious by not capitalising on a great car.

If Ferrari were to fire their team lead - who could step forward? They'd need a proven race winner, ideally a champion driving at the top of his game, free of contract. Step forward a certain Mr Alonso. We know he left Ferrari under unhappy circumstances, but he did so at McLaren under worse conditions and went back.

A strange turn of events? Maybe, but with each mistake Vettel makes, I think it becomes more likely.

Squiffy.

Nearly number 4 for Lewis

It's getting to the end of the F1 season and in a few hours it is possible we will see Lewis Hamilton crowned World Champion for the fourth time. Though it is unlikely. The likelihood is that he will be World Champion next week unless Ferrari screw up again. He will deserve the championship.

At the beginning of the year he was having a little difficulty with the Mercedes W08. The car is fast but the tyres have to get into the right working temperature and at some places that has been difficult. The Mercedes is temperamental and not the overwhelming power of previous seasons. In many ways this years Ferrari has been a better car. It's a car for all seasons, been good at all circuits and in Vettel's hand's has been extremely quick. It's only failure has been in wet conditions.

Until a few races ago it looked like it could be either Vettel or Hamilton winning the world championship, and it still technically is, but it is now overwhelmingly Hamilton's to lose. Ferrari has partially imploded. Vettel made a second mistake (after Baku) in Singapore being too aggressive into the first corner, and then reliability gremlins raised their heads in the next two races. I thought reliability may become an issue for Ferrari but not to this extent.

The problem for Ferrari, now, is that it looks like the image of the pre-Jean Todt era. In which case failure is not an option, and heads roll, on a regular basis. No one feels safe and are expected to have immediate results. When Jean Todt and Ross Brawn took over Ferrari they kept the president Luca Di Montezemolo away from the team as far as possible and took failures as something they could all learn from and  improve. It took them 3 years to become the super force of the 2000-2006 era and there were plenty of failures and blow-ups but it came good.

I read that pre-1996 every morning all senior managers arrived to find a daily assortment of press clippings on their desks from the very critical Italian media. Not exactly bring the spirit of team harmony.

We now stand on the cusp of Lewis Hamilton's 4th World Championship. He had a difficult start to the season but has come back stronger and at the moment no one can really touch him. He is outstanding, especially in qualifying. He now holds the record for most pole positions, most first row starts. He still needs to win 30 more races to equal Schumacher's record which is a tall order, but if anyone can it's Hamilton. I believe he stands at the same level of greatness.

In actual fact slightly greater. Why? Because he has not insisted on having a number 2 driver. Rosberg was equal number 1. Also he has not been dirty on the track like Schumacher vs Hill in Adelaide 94, Villeneuve Jerez 97, and Alonso Monaco 2006. He lets his driving do the talking. FIrm but fair.

In a few hours we will know. Let's hope Austin is wet and a good race. I can wait until Mexico, in fact it may be better so that I can open some champagne.

Squiffy.

F1 2017 is here

Usually I give a brief look at how the new F1 season is looking but I'm a bit late this year!

We've already had two races in to the season. Vettel has won one, Hamilton the other. Both are leading the championship. It has already become clear that the Mercedes and Ferraris are equally matched, as are their two lead drivers. Whilst Bottas and Raikkonen are a little behind their lead drivers, it looks like the constructors championship will be extremely tight too!

Red Bull have been 30 to 40 seconds back in both races and a bit of a disappointment quite frankly. The reset in the regulations was supposed to be Adrian Newey's chance to catch up, but the car looks clean though under-developed where the Mercedes and Ferrari are the real deal. Maybe they will get there, but I suspect it will be too late to have a huge impact on the championship.

Williams are looking quite good, as are Toro Rosso, but Force India and Renault have quite a bit of catch up to do. The huge disappointment, yet again, is McLaren. The engine yet again is under powered, too thirsty and too unreliable. Alonso is putting a brave face on it, but he won't be there next year. I would not be surprised at all if he walked out mid-year. He has wasted a large amount of his career in non championship winning cars, and that is partly his fault for the way he treated management in his first stint at McLaren.

What about the new rules?

Good so far. The cars have the right shape, the tyres are back to being wide, the rear-wing lower again. It's like the last 19 years have not happened! Apart for the tail fin and the far too complicated wings, flips and flaps. Looking back to last year's car and they already look wrong, just like I felt when they were first introduced.

China showed that overtaking is possible but difficult. Just like it was without DRS. I guess DRS was invented when the rear wings were higher and are just less effective with the lower wings.

I'm liking it so far and the championship race ahead is going to be very exciting. This could be a classic season.

Squiffy

Rosberg vs Hamilton

Last week in Austria Nico Rosberg made a mistake, collided with Lewis Hamilton and damaged his car. Note, how I lay the blame on Nico Rosberg. Lewis Hamilton left Nico plenty of room to turn, Nico left Hamilton none and only turned at the last moment.

Let's trace this back.

Rosberg started it.

In Bahrain 2014 we witnessed a fantastic race with overtaking hard but fair on both sides, with Hamilton coming out on top. All nice and clean. Apart from the fact that Rosberg had used an engine setting with more power - against Mercedes' own rule to get close to Hamilton.

Two races later in Spain, Hamilton retaliated and used the 'forbidden' engine mode to stay ahead of Rosberg to take the win.

Then Monaco. In qualifying, Rosberg had a very suspicious off, destroying Hamilton's lap as Rosberg was running ahead of him on the track. He even reversed back onto the track. It was clearly a foul. Hamilton was incandescent.

In Hungary, Hamilton had another problem in qualifying with his car on fire and so he had to come through the field. Hamilton and Rosberg found themselves running 3rd and 4th. Hamilton was asked to allow Rosberg to pass, but as he was still in the hunt for the win he said he wouldn't slow down - Rosberg would have to get closer, which he didn't.

In Spa, Rosberg got a good run on Hamilton up Les Combes and tried to pass but managed to clip Hamilton's rear tyre puncturing it. There was a public flair up and the first laying down of the law by Toto Wolff.

Turn to 2015.

In Japan, Hamilton was aggressive into the first corner, leaving Rosberg 'out to dry' as Hamilton had the racing line.

In Austin, again into the first corner on a wet track, Rosberg was slightly ahead on the outside, with Hamilton on the inside trying to turn and with cold brakes going straight on pushing Rosberg out. This is the most similar situation to the recent Austria incident, but Hamilton had cold brakes and tried to turn. Incidentally, Rosberg said he was 'slightly ahead so had the luxury to take the racing line.' Remember that.

Now to 2016.

In Spain, Rosberg passed Hamilton off the line but was in the wrong engine mode and stopped picking up speed as they went through turn three. Hamilton closed fast and went for the inside but Rosberg closed the space and went into Hamilton. Both were out, but both were at fault.

In Canada, Rosberg again got partially alongside Hamilton after the start but was on the outside and Hamilton again, with cold brakes, was about to take the racing line with Rosberg having to take to the grass. They had banged wheels.

Finally Austria. Interestingly, Hamilton was slightly ahead on the outside, Rosberg had failing brakes. This time Rosberg said 'he had the inside line and so was able to take the racing line' - which is the opposite of what he said in the race in Austin! He didn't even take the racing line, he failed to turn in and specifically pushed Hamilton wide.

In conclusion. Rosberg started hostilities. Hamilton has raced hard but fair and when he forced them to touch, they banged wheels with both cars continuing. Rosberg when racing wheel to wheel makes too many mistakes and causes bits to fall off cars. Hamilton is a better racer. That's why Hamilton has 3 world championships.

Squiffy.

F1: I woke up at 5 a.m. for this

Empty Track

It's been a ritual of mine for many years. March is the start of the F1 season. It usually coincides with my birthday, so I'm happy. And for the first race in Australia I get up ridiculously early for qualifying and the race as it's on really early in Britain.

This year has been no different. What is different is the disappointment. Not because my favourite driver didn't so well, because he did and he's on pole. But because F1 is a laughing stock. The new qualifying procedures left drivers in the pits having done their laps and being knocked out. It was all wrapped up with four minutes to go. As the chequered flag came out, Lewis Hamilton was at the back of pits signing autographs. Damon Hill on Sky quipped that he could have waved the chequered flag for himself.

It was all so predictable. Drivers, mechanics, engineers all warned that this was likely to happen but the F1 bigwigs put their fingers in their ears and blew raspberries. Well you guys now have a raspberry creme brulée all over your faces.

There's many things wrong with F1. Qualifying wasn't one of them, in fact it was the only thing working well and now that has been turned into a joke.

How did F1 get here? Actually, it started with a good proposal from Bernie to have an hour long qualifying race on the Saturday. The TV companies complained though, they need the breaks between qualifying sessions for advertising as most don't interrupt the races. Once the hare had been set running on changes to qualifying, something was bound to be done and they came up with this crackpot scheme which sounds good on paper but would always be optimised to being boring. It is terrible.

Change it back, now! Don't try to tinker with the steaming pile you have created. Just change it back.

The main problems with F1 stem from it's governance. Team principals can veto changes but have a vested interest in keeping it the same way (for successful teams) and changing it (for failing teams). Bernie Ecclestone and the FIA don't have the power to impose, and there needs to be someone to set the direction, though I think Bernie has lost the plot. The way teams are paid is incredibly unfair, too, and needs to be changed too.

If the governance was sorted, maybe we could get some good regulations formed to make cars which can overtake. I like the ideas of faster, wider cars with bigger tyres. Reduce the aerodynamics, reduce the number of planes on the front wing, take away some of the turning vanes and barge boards. Increase the ground effects and mechanical grip.

If these three things were fixed, F1 would be on the mend.

Instead F1 is heading in the wrong direction, and today proved it.

Squiffy.

Four hours to the title showdown: Hamilton vs Rosberg

You may be reading this after the race and know the result, or just before and in anticipation of the culmination of a fascinating season.

Yesterday, as so many times this season, Nico Rosberg grabbed pole after Lewis Hamilton was strangely off-colour on a Saturday. Usually, however, Hamilton has come back stronger and faster on Sunday, and I expect no different today. Hamilton is quick around Abu Dhabi, and without any other issues I'd expect him to prevail.

There's 17 points difference and Hamilton only needs to come second, but I don't expect him to tighten and win just by settling, like he did in 2008. Let's really hope that there are no mechanical issues, and I think the mechanics on both sides of the Mercedes garage will be desperate to avoid any issues.

Nico Rosberg has shown prodigious speed this year, and has surprised many, including me. He's also shown ruthlessness with the deliberate actions in Monaco and Spa, he definitely isn't the Mr Nice Guy we all presumed. There is an arrogance there which most F1 champs have. For another take, read Will Buxton's blog.

Lewis Hamilton has shown a lot more maturity this year, he's made more mistakes than I would expect, but he always bounces back, which he wouldn't have done a few years ago. I think he's more tense than he appears, but that is understandable. He has shown brilliant race-craft, which is such a stark contrast to his wayward 2011 season, where he would quite often collide with Felipe Massa! If his Saturday's have been more troubled than usual, his Sundays have been spectacular. I think by 10 wins to 5 and by coming back from a points deficit twice, he deserves this championship. For another take, check Will Buxton's Blog again.

Just a few hours to go.


Now to another issue. The demise of Marussia, possible death of Caterham and struggles for Force India, Sauber and Lotus has highlighted the terrible financial state of Formula 1. It's absolutely crazy that Ferrari and Red Bull get over £100m per year, and Marussia were getting £7m! I don't mind having a premium for success but that is just ridiculous. I would say increments of £3m for each place in the constructor's championship. Meaning that the gap between the top and bottom teams should be £30m at most. If I can see this, why can't F1?

Bernie Ecclestone has been name calling the three teams of Force India, Sauber, and Sauber and his behaviour is becoming increasingly bizarre. He recently said that F1 doesn't need young fans who can't buy Rolex watches! Hello? Where do older fans comes from, younger fans you idiot! I'm still watching and can afford a Rolex, but I started at the age of 14, when I couldn't. It's time for Bernie to toodle off.

Finally, how to tackle F1 in the absence of a change in money. Three car teams and customer cars have been raised. Christian Horner, as Ecclestone's mouthpiece, has complained about the new engines and wants to go back to the old V8s. That would be a disaster for the whole grid. The new formula is interesting and gives F1 a new purpose in developing hybrid car technology for the future of the human race.

But the new engines are expensive at £25m and the old engines were only £5m. I would suggest we did something similar to the late 80's where there was a choice of turbo or normally aspirated engines. We could allow slightly de-tuned or RPM limited old V8s to be fitted to cars. The cars would be unlikely to win but could make it to the midfield. In 2006 Toro Rosso was allowed to run de-tuned V10s, so it's not so bizarre an option!

Anyway, rant over.

Enjoy the race!

Squiffy

Where is the Ferrari announcement?

It's been an interesting and also sobering time in F1.

The injury to Jules Bianchi overshadows everything. I read that he hit his head with a force of 92G, it is a wonder that he's still alive. I hope that he manages to make a recovery and can make it back into a car, as he has shown such promise.

The season has been fascinating. For a while it looked like the bad luck would completely destroy Hamilton's campaign, but since Rosberg's error in Spa the momentum has all been with the Brit. In fact the latter half of the season has shown Rosberg is prone to errors under pressure and so far he has yet to better Hamilton in a straight fight.

We're entering the end of the season and mileages on the engines are going to get critical. Is it a possibility that for the last double point race Mercedes decides to have penalties and replace the both engines? Maybe, just in case there is a danger than one of the cars might not finish.

The big news on driver moves is that Sebastien Vettel is leaving Red Bull. He's been out of sorts all year, and when he learnt that Alonso had exercised his get out of Ferrari clause, he leapt upon it. So Vettel to Ferrari. Or is it? The likelihood is yes, but it's weird that Ferrari haven't announced it. Why wouldn't they?

An off the wall thought. It looks like Alonso is heading to McLaren, but they're just trying to tie down the contract. Maybe McLaren have signed Vettel too! It would explain why Ferrari haven't announced Vettel.

Probably not, but you never know! Maybe Ferrari are looking at a way of getting rid of Raikkonen who has been a disappointment this year. Maybe Alonso will take a sabbatical with the aim of getting his backside into a Mercedes in 2016 (in which case I think he may be disappointed).

Looking forward to the last three races, but I don't want double points or reliability problems to settle this championship. If Rosberg wins at the last race with Hamilton out, the win tally could be 11-5 to Hamilton. It would be a travesty.

#ForzaJules

Squiffy

Rosberg vs Hamilton: It's war

It's been brewing for a while, but the race at Spa was the end of the cold war. We're now at Defcon 4 in the Formula 1 season.

The incidents that have brought us here are: Hamilton defending aggressively at Bahrain and using the extra-special powerful setting, Rosberg using the extra-special powerful setting in Spain, Rosberg having his 'off' at Monaco ruining Hamilton's lap and finally Hamilton refusing team-orders at Hungary.

You could say it's six of one and half a dozen of the other. Indeed, my own interpretation was that it was all pretty fair and evened up - although the Monaco incident did look suspect but I gave Rosberg the benefit of the doubt.

The race at Spa looked like it was going to be a great ding-dong battle until Rosberg clipped Hamilton's rear left tyre on lap two going into Les Combes. It was a clumsy attempt at a pass by Rosberg but looked like a cack-handed misjudgement.

That was until Lewis Hamilton appeared after the debrief in front of the press, reportedly nearly tearful, and said that Rosberg had done it on 'purpose' to 'make a point'. Maybe fanciful, and Toto Wolff denied that it had been on purpose, but agreed that Rosberg had said he'd wanted to 'make a point'. To me this infers that Rosberg had not deliberately decided to crash into Hamilton at the beginning of the race, but would - if the moment arose - not back out of possible contact in wheel to wheel combat.

Looking at the video footage Rosberg decides he's not going to be able to pass Hamilton and turn's left to avoid contact - and then changes his mind and turns right again leaving Hamilton to drive into him while following the racing line. Given that Hamilton was well ahead and could not have seen exactly where Rosberg was at that time, he had no option and Rosberg cannot complain about not being given enough room.

Rosberg chose to collide with Hamilton in that split moment. He had the lead in the championship, so if both went out so be it. He made his point. Hamilton said that he did not know how to race Rosberg any more, now that Rosberg has shown an unpredictability, nearly worthy of Pastor Maldonado!

Where to go from here? Niki Lauda squarely blamed Rosberg and Toto Wolff was incandescent with rage. They said there would be consequences but it's difficult to see what. We don't know the mind of Paddy Lowe, but obviously he's been with Lewis Hamilton ever since McLaren so knows him well.

If they make some changes to team orders, it will probably favour Rosberg even if that is not the intention. In which case Rosberggets what he wants. They could fire Rosberg but that's inconceivable. They can't dock points from him, as that is up to the FIA.

I think the only way to punish Rosberg, lay down the law, and make sure this does not happen in the future is to bench Rosberg. Bring in Antony Davidson or Heikki Kovalainen for one race, someone who will still get points for Mercedes but leave Rosberg on the sidelines as he watches his 29 point lead get reduced.

It would obviously enrage Rosberg but would be payback and let him know that the team calls the shots.

Do I think they'll do it. No. I expect there will be some changes to team orders and I think F1 will be the poorer. Unfortunately.

Squiffy.

Ayrton Senna: 20 years on

I'm writing this whilst watching the Portuguese Grand Prix of 1985, Ayrton Senna's first race victory. On Thursday it will be 20 years since that fateful day in May when Senna lost his life, so I thought I'd give you my thoughts.

I first started watching Formula 1 when I woke up early to find my Dad watching TV on a Sunday morning in 1986. It was unusual as my Dad used to enjoy his lie-in. He was watching F1; it happened to be the Australian Grand Prix. I'd never watched it before but a British man was about to win and then bang his tyre blew up. That scene has been replayed many times when Nigel Mansell lost the World Championship slithering down the slip road at 200 mph. I was hooked and gutted, it may have been patriotism or just the excitement of this high speed incident but I've been hooked ever since and not missed a race.

That race gave me my first hero. Mansell was just so exciting to watch. Wherever he was, something was about to happen or just had. I had to wait a few years for him to win the World Championship, and his big rivals each won their own Championships in between. Alain Prost in 1986 and 1989, Nelson Piquet in 1987 and Ayrton Senna in 1988, 1990 and 1991.

Piquet didn't seem that fast to me, Prost was too calculating to be exciting, but in my eyes as a partisan fan, Ayrton Senna was the enemy. To me, he was the only equal of my hero. Super fast, super committed and super ruthless. In truth I knew he had the edge.

Of course the rest of the F1 community was consumed with the rivalry of Senna and Prost. Maybe because Prost had reached his peak in 1985 and 86 and Senna was just reaching his, I thought that Senna was much faster and way better in rain. And just to prove it, on my TV screen Prost has just slithered off the race track into the wall. The only man to beat Senna, in my eyes, was Mansell-  if only he had reliable cars!

The races which stick out were the Hungarian GP of 1989 and Spanish GP of 1991. In both cases Mansell pulled off spectacular overtaking moves on Senna. It's a measure of my underlying respect for Senna that it was that beating him meant more than beating Piquet at Silverstone in 1987 and Prost in Magny Cours in 1991.

Even when Mansell had the best car in 1992, it was Senna who deprived him of sure race wins in Canada and Spa, and spectacularly so at Monaco when Mansell was 2 seconds per lap faster.

Looking on after all these years, I appreciate that Senna was by far the best at the time. So quick. So precise. Watching the Marlboro McLaren dance around the streets of Monaco in 1988 qualifying is sheer mesmeric. The fact that he won so many pole positions when the car had no right to be there is testament to his speed.

The man oozed charisma, interviews left you hanging on every word. The most interesting of all was after he won the World Championship in 1991. He opened up about the fact that he had deliberately taken Prost out the year before, which takes me to his ruthlessness. For all his brilliance, he did start the trend for none sporting behaviour which has been the hallmark of Schumacher and Vettel, which is not to be welcomed.

I remember the race in which he died in 1994. The weekend was awful. Rubens Barrichello's accident on Saturday, Roland Ratzenberger's horrible fatal accident on the Saturday and the start line horror for JJ Lehto were all signs that this weekend should not have happened. When the Williams shot off on lap 7 at Tamburello it didn't look too bad, but there was no sign of movement from Senna. Me and my F1 friends in Portsmouth sat on the sofa, fearing the worst. We watched as Schumacher won again, but we all felt that a light had gone out. Indeed it had. Senna had died. We all realised what we had lost. A great talent, and what what would have been a fantastic season between the best in the World and the Young Pretender. We were robbed that day.

But on that note, on my TV, Senna has just crossed the finish line in horrible wet conditions to take his first win. Let's remember that sublime talent and thank our lucky stars that this man found a way to demonstrate it so emphatically.

Squiffy.

F1 2014: Nearly here

We've now had the first three tests and the first Grand Prix of the season will be starting in 5 days time. It's time to look at the prospective teams and drivers.

Red Bull
The Red Bull team have had a traumatic pre-season. The car looks great, but is very tightly packaged, as you'd imagine from Adrian Newey. The Renault engine has been very problematic. Initially unreliable, they had hardware and software issues. They fixed some of the hardware issues but the software still had bugs.

Even when the engine was more reliable, the tight packaging of the car led to fires and frequent stops on track. The first test was a disaster, the second and third showed brief spells of the old Red Bull but were more often punctuated by stops and red flags. It really was and is a crisis. Most people have written them off, I think the first few races will be difficult but they will probably turn it around mid season - but by that time I think it will be too late to fight for this year's championships.

I expect that Sebastian Vettel will be more troubled than usual regarding the reliability but will have the measure of Daniel Ricciardo. This season we will really see what the current champion is made of.

Mercedes
The new Mercedes is looking very good. The engine looks like the best of the three, and has shown reliability and speed. There have been a few issues for the team, but it looks like the problems occurred when they were really pushing the car. The Red Bull never really got that close. Both drivers managed to do several race distances and had good pace.

I think the most fascinating aspect to this season will be who comes out on top between Hamilton and Rosberg. Last year was close, and I think this year will be closer. I think Lewis will be the fastest over the year, but with Rosberg grabbing quite a few victories and pushing Hamilton hard. It will be difficult for the team to manage. I expect Mercedes and Hamilton to be champion by the end of the year, if not Hamilton then Rosberg.

Ferrari
I think the Ferrari looks ugly this year with its really squashed nose. The car has been very reliable in testing, and has shown reasonable pace, but it looks less drivable than the Merc and there are serious rumours that there are problems with fuel usage which could see the cars drop down the order.

It will be fascinating to see whether Alonso or Raikkonen comes out on top. I believe that Alonso will be more consistent and may win a few of the races, but will become annoyed by another year not being able to realistically fight for the championship.

Lotus
The Lotus is intriguing with the double tusk nose. Another Renault runner, it has had a difficult pre-season, missing the first test and sitting out lots of time with issues in the second and third tests. We don't really know the pace and I'm not sure we will until the season has set in a little.

It's Grosjean versus Maldonaldo at Lotus and I know which one my money will be on. Grosjean showed speed at the end of last year and Maldonaldo is too inconsistent. Whether either will get a chance to shine this year will be difficult to say.

McLaren
The McLaren is looking better than last year, although the front of it makes it look like someone who's taken a lot of cocaine! Running the reliable Mercedes engine helps, and they looked good in the first and second tests, but seemed to not move forward as much as the other teams by the third test. So it may get them podiums but maybe no wins.

The team has a new fast rookie in Kevin Magnussen and he was looking very confident and fast. I believe we may be about to witness a re-run of the 2007 Alonso/Hamilton scenario where the rookie is shown to be faster than the experienced World Champion. Although given Button's laid back attitude I don't think there will be the same fireworks. Which one comes out on top is difficult to say!

Force India
Another Mercedes runner which looked good in testing, albeit not as quick as the Mercedes and Williams, this should be a good year for the team. Nico Hulkenburg is back and I think the combination should be great with some giant killing performances. I expect Nico and Sergio Perez to be fighting with the Ferraris throughout the year. I expect Hulkenburg to have the measure of Perez.

Sauber
The Sauber was very twitchy in testing but proved to be reliable with the Ferrari engine. It did the largest amount of laps in one day, but went off on several occasions, due to the poor fly by brakes. I think they will struggle to show the same pace as late last year. I also think the driver line up is weak. Sutil should come out on top but it could be either.

Toro Rosso
The Toro Rosso seems to have chosen the wrong time to go from a Ferrari engine to Renault, and have said they are one month behind schedule. The car has been only slightly more reliable than the senior team's due to the greater cooling. It's another ugly car due to the sex toy like front nose.

I'm not sure whether we can see who will do better between Daniel Kvyat and Jean-Eric Verne, though this must be JEV's last year at a guess.

Williams
The Williams is looking fantastic, which I think is marvellous. Last year was dire by their standards, but this year they are fast and very reliable. In fact, they may just have an edge on the Mercedes which should be interesting fro Felipe Massa and Valteri Bottas. I really hope that they do have a good car, I would like to see the team battling at the front on a regular basis.

I expect it to be quite close between Massa and Bottas and am not sure which will come out the winner. I also hope the new surroundings give Massa a renewed vigour which he lost playing second fiddle to Alonso at Ferrari.

Marussia
The Marussia had a slow start to testing, turning up for the last day of the first test but have shown some reliability and with some consistency may be able to snatch their first points of the year. The car looks tidy and so I'm hopeing for some good things.

Caterham
The Caterham has to have some marks for the ugliest nose in F1. With their Renault engine I expect them fall behind Marussia, although they appear to have provided more cooling than the other Renault racers.

The returning Kobayashi is good value, but whether he can show any of the battling overtaking that he's known for will be another matter. I don't know enough of Marcus Ericsson to be able to say.


It should be a fascinating year, and I'm really looking forward to it.

Squiffy.

Much ado Ron Ron

Yesterday was interesting in F1. Ron Dennis is back. He's been quiet since leaving the role of team principal in 2009. But yesterday he was made the CEO of McLaren again, usurping Martin Whitmarsh.

It's been rumoured for a while that Ron and Martin have been at loggerheads. Apparently, Ron wanted to bring back the 2012 McLaren last year when the 2013 model was found to be a dud. He was sceptical of the hiring of Sergio Perez and pushed for his ousting at the ending of last year.

There's been no news on who the team principal will be, but Mr Dennis has made it known that there will be changes. At the meeting at McLaren, the whole staff were present to hear of Ron's comeback but Mr Whitmarsh was not present. If he was certain to remain they would both be there presenting a united front, so one has to wonder! It looks like Ron Dennis will not be on the pit wall, and so who are the candidates?

Possibly, Sam Michael on a temporary basis until a certain Ross Brawn finishes his gardening/fishing leave?

I'll be sorry to see Martin Whitmarsh go, he seems like a thoroughly nice guy but you get marked by your results and McLaren have underperformed for well over a decade.

Interesting times at Woking.

Squiffy.

F1: Disappearing up its own DRS

Today there's the news that from next year there will be permanent number for each driver. Fine, no problem.

The more disturbing news is that the final round will be awarded double points. Err, why? Why that one, why not the first one? Surely every round should be worth the same. I believe it's to try to make the championship go to the last round, but we seem to be getting further and further away from what F1 is supposed to be.

Last week there was talk of forcing cars to have two pitstops, limiting lots of strategy options. I know that Bernie mentioned a few years ago of shortcuts which you could use 3 times in a race - I thought he'd been taking the funny pills and there was no chance. I'm not so sure that it won't happen now.

What is happening to the sport I love? The measures recently to try to spice up the action have made it artificial and detract from true talent. Lewis Hamilton is the best overtaker in the business and yet everyone can overtake with DRS. The tyres are so marginal that no-one can be on it for more than a lap.

As soon as you start making it artificial, the flood gates open to more artificial measures. DRS, as Sir Humphrey would say, was the thin end of the wedge.

Please stop before I turn off.

Squiffy

It is summer, so Felipe Massa's position is under threat

For the third year running Felipe Massa's seat is under threat. The rumour this year is that Ferrari may decide to lure Kimi Raikkonen away from Lotus to replace the Brazilian. This would be a strange turnaround, after all Ferrari paid Raikkonen off to get him out of his contract to bring Fernando Alonso in. They chose Massa over Raikkonen.

It has become transparently clear, though, that Massa is on borrowed time. Either his injury, or the latest selection of tyres has stopped him being ultimately competitive and there has only been one occasion when he has threatened for a win, when he was forced aside as Rob Smedley delivered the line 'Fernando is faster than you'.

The yearly discussion over whether Massa should retain the Ferrari seat is as predictable as snow messing up the railways. It's clear that Massa is not pushing Alonso, he won't be in a position to challenge for the championship and Ferrari's constructors championship points are being hampered by the Number 2's side of the garage. They need a stronger driver.

Whether that is Raikkonen I don't know. He likes it at Lotus where they let him live his life as he wants. Also, he is also wanted by Red Bull, and the Alonso to Red Bull, Raikkonen to Ferrari rumours may be just bargaining tools from both sides of the Red Bull/Raikkonen deal. In which case Ferrari should go for Di Resta, Hulkenburg or Bianchi.

It would be good to see Raikkonen at Red Bull to give Vettel a good challenge, but I think Lotus needs him more than he needs them so they may try hard to convince him to stay. Also there is the fact that what is the Red Bull young driver programme for if it doesn't deliver drivers into the senior team. Daniel Ricciardo is a good driver and we still have to see whether he has what it takes - so to encourage other young drivers maybe they should keep the faith.

Where does this leave Massa? He's still a good driver, and maybe he could end up at Lotus or a third stint at Sauber. But it's time to end the yearly Massa-hunt.

Squiffy.

Lewis to Mercedes: Good or Bad

Only time will tell.

I feel a little sad that Lewis Hamilton has decided to move from McLaren to Mercedes. I know a lot of Lewis fans will also, indeed it's a little like Nigel Mansell moving from Williams to Ferrari for 1989 or Jensen Button moving from Brawn to McLaren for 2010. Feels like the end of an era, and indeed it is. The all British team (just about) is over.

It feels like the wrong decision. McLaren creates cars that wins GPs nearly every year, it knows how to win, and at the moment it has the fastest car - so why would he leave?

Look at it from Lewis's point of view, though, and you may come to some different conclusions. McLaren has not won the drivers championship since 2008 (Brawn in 2009), and has not won the constructors championship since 1999 (Brawn in 2009). This year McLaren have had the best car for most of the season, barring a few races mid-season, and yet, even with Lewis driving magnificently, Lewis is 52 points behind Fernando Alonso in the championship. Pit-stop cock ups, bad performance on wet tyres, a major mess up in Barcelona qualifying, and a little unreliability have nearly destroyed his championship.

Even though McLaren know how to win races, they are a bit rusty on winning championships - the days of 1989 are long gone. Ross Brawn has much more recent experience of running a consistent championship contender.

Look to the future. In 2014 there is a new engine formula and the Mercedes engine could be the best one and gelled with a Mercedes chassis, designed so well for it, could be the class of the field. McLaren will be a customer team and might not have so privileged access to the data. There's rumours of Vodafone leaving McLaren too, probably hastened by Lewis's departure. Mercedes has also hired some big names this year; Aldo Costa from Ferrari and Bob Bell from Renault. They could be just about to set the world alight, whereas McLaren tend to build a good car every other year.

I think it's likely that the McLaren and Mercedes offers were pretty similar in monetary terms with a little more branding opportunities at Mercedes, but I don't think this is the crux of Lewis's motivation to move. An article on Autosport struck me as very pertinent. The essence of the article is that Lewis has grown up with McLaren, it's a parent-child relationship and now it's time for Lewis to break out and become an 'adult'. A good point made was that in 2007 Hamilton was on the verge of winning the championship on his first attempt in China and was kept out on very visible thread-bare tyres. I remember shouting at the TV screen for 5 laps that he should go into the pits and McLaren kept him out. That must rankle with him, he should have definitely won that championship. We know Lewis believes he should have won more than his solitary championship.

The relationship has soured in the last few years a little. There was the lying row in Australia a few years back, and there has been friction about Lewis's use of twitter. You may call this the teen years.

Once the parent-child relationship is formed, it's pretty difficult to break free (as any child returning to the parents would know) until you leave home. And as anyone knows, you can always return home and who knows Lewis may one day return home, calling the shots, as did Nigel Mansell.

But as I say, only time will tell.

Squiffy.

Forza Monza

or Force Monza!

I was lucky to be at the Italian GP two weekends ago. It was spectacular. Deep in a country park you find this incredible circuit of speed.

I managed to view the old banking - which would be terrifying in a modern car, or anything to be honest! The atmosphere was electric, the weather was hot, the tifosi devoted and action unstoppable.

Enough superlatives. It was better organised than Silverstone, you didn't need to wait more than 5 minutes waiting for a bus to take you between Monza train station and circuit, likewise on the way back. I was surprised that McLaren had a great deal of support - lots of Lewis and Jenson fans. It was great to be able to invade the track afterwards - and funny to watch guys taking away the polystyrene bollards at the first corner.

It was fantastic that Lewis won too, so shortly after his family bereavement. He was on it all weekend, and deserved the win.

A brilliant weekend. As Murray used to say, Faaantastic.

Squiffy.

Lewis Hamilton, too many mistakes

I'm a big fan of Lewis Hamilton. He's fast, audacious and exciting. Unfortunately, he is making too many mistakes. Today, in Spa, he had a good chance of winning and yet again a collision took him out. Others thought that it was Kamui Kobayashi's fault, but it is clear that Hamilton took a line which was unnecessary and he wasn't looking to find where Kamui's car was.

It is a trait which is becoming a bit too frequent. His wins are fantastic, and I'm still a fan but please, Lewis, stop making the silly mistakes - just take a bit more care. Especially when overtaking fiery characters such as Kamui Kobayashi!

Squiffy

F1 2011: I'm liking it

This morning's race in China was one of the best dry weather races I have ever seen. There were many passes, action up and down the order, and stints where certain cars were faster than others only for the position to be reversed later.

The new rules seem to be working, but Pirelli has to be congratulated on making tyres which degrade quickly.

Lewis Hamilton drove superbly, and I think this was his best race and shows a new maturity. Unfortunately, Jenson Button made a silly mistake, pitting in the Red Bull box! Mark Webber drove very well, as did Felipe Massa.

So, 2011 is looking to be an excellent year.

Squiffy.

F1 2011: Part 2

Here's part two of my round-up of the teams.

Williams - It looks like this team is finally on the up. And not before time. Last year they seemed to find some aerodynamic stability which had been sorely lacking for several years. They now have a pretty radical car with a vastly undercut tail fin, and it is looking good. I think Rubens Barrichello will perform well as he is experienced and is really driving the car forward. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about Pastor Maldonaldo to make a judgement but he did very well in GP2 so should shine, but I think that Nico Hulkenberg was harshly treated (even if it was for understandable reasons).

Force India - A great car two years ago, became a marginally good car a year ago. I'm hoping the car is better this year, as this small team has a good aerodynamic team and a great engine in the Mercedes. I'd like to see Brit Paul di Resta do well in the new car, and show talented but patchy Adrian Sutil a clean pair of heels. For Sutil, it's this year or never for him to prove he has what it takes to move forward.

Toro Rosso - It is the second year of Toro Rosso's own car, and I hope they can come up with a good design. For the two drivers it is make or break for both, Sebastien Buemi has a lot to prove - he's been generally faster than his team mate but at the end of last year Alguersuari was faster. If this turns into a trend it will be the end of Buemi. If Alguersuari fails to beat Buemi then it is probably game over.

Sauber - Last years car wasn't great, and it looks like Sauber have reverted to pre-BMW years of showing well in pre-season testing but then failing to develop and back it up. Hopefully for them it will be better this year, and for Kamui Kobayashi he needs a good car to allow him to pull off the great overtaking moves which he has become known. He really is looking like the best Japanese driver so far, very exciting. Again, I'm not sure of Sergio Perez, good in GP2 he has a lot to prove.

Lotus - I like this plucky team, it has Mike Gascoyne as technical director whom I respect greatly. I'm really hoping this team can get close to the midfield, as they deserve it and give the Lotus name a good name - whilst they still have it. I'd like to see Heikki Kovalainen do well as I think he is underrated, but maybe it's time for Trulli to hang up his helmet as he's not really going anywhere.

Virgin - After last years embarrassing problem of a car with a too small fuel tank, the team need to really show something this year. I'm not convinced that the all CFD route is proving to be brilliant successful though. Maybe it helps make a slow car, but not much better. I think Timo Glock's talent is wasted here, and I'm not too sure about Jerome D'Ambrosio.

HRT - Another year and another dodgy start to the season. No wheels have turned, will they ever?

Squiffy.

F1 2011: It's nearly here

It should have been two weeks ago but the start of the season will be this weekend instead. It's been an incredibly long winter but it only adds to the excitement.

The season holds several technical changes which could add to the spice. Firstly, KERS is back. It was a shame that it went away, green technology is future and it is only a good thing. Although most teams will have it and so there won't be too much advantage to gain unless they malfunction. It should favour McLaren and Mercedes who had the best systems in 2009.

Secondly, there are movable rear wings which mean that at certain points on the track a car which is following closely (1 second) behind another will be able open a slot between two planes on the rear wing. This will reduce drag and add to the speed of the following car. Some have said that this means overtaking will be easy, I don't think so. Mainly because it is very difficult to get to a gap of 1 second.

Finally, and most significantly there is a new tyre supplier. Out go Bridgestone, in come Pirelli. Although tyres may seem a bit boring, they are absolutely key as they are the only point where the car touches the car - everything the driver and car does is through this rubber. All cars will have Pirellis with the choice between two compounds, like last year.

The guys at Pirelli signed the deal just after last year's Canadian GP. For those with flaky memories, tyre usage was key as the tyres were getting worn very quickly. It was a very exciting race and Pirelli took it as the blueprint for this year's tyres. So, expect drivers complaining about tyres going off, but with added tyres changes there may be more excitement. It looks like the tyres wear down in a physical way more than a chemical way, i.e. by using more rubber than by losing stickiness - which may not help Jenson Button as much as thought. There are also issues with the tyres giving off too many 'marbles', little bits of rubber which fly off the tyres and stay off line. This may not help the overall aim of increasing overtaking as it gets very slippery off-line.

Here's a quick round of how the teams stand.

Red Bull - Looking very good after testing. The car has been built upon last year's RB6, it is evolution rather than revolution. The main advantage seems to be that it has kept its speed but gained reliability - which hampered it in the early parts of last year. I expect Sebastien Vettel to retain his speed but lose a bit of his impetuousity, it may be tougher for Mark Webber. Seb and Red Bull are my tips for champions this year.

Ferrari - Again, they look fast and reliable and may be at the speed of Red Bull. I expect Fernando Alonso to be really challenging the Red Bull duo this year, and with a few less mistakes will be well placed if the RB duo take points off each other. Felipe Massa doesn't seem to have regained the speed to put him on a par with Alonso, and so it is make or break for him.

McLaren - The car is revolutionary, and so far quite unreliable. It has also not been as fast as hoped for. Both drivers have complained of a lack of grip, and it would be understandable if they had long faces. It looks like problems with the blown exhaust, and they are turning up to Australia with a simpler system. They want to surprise us, for their sakes lets hope they can because it took them a while last year to get new parts working. I expect Lewis Hamilton to make the best of it again with Jenson Button being creative in unusual circumstances.

Mercedes - Similarly to McLaren, it was looking bad for Mercedes a little while ago. The car seemed slow, but Ross Brawn said that some new parts would largely improve matters. Entering the final test, the new parts transformed the car to being fastest - whether that is accurate we shall see. If it works, expect to see Michael Schumacher back at the sharp end, otherwise I think he will walk away. It will be fascinating to see the rivalry between him and Nico Rosberg.

Renault - It looks like Renault are back in the game, they have a radical new exhaust which blows forward from the sidepods and channels extra air below the car to the diffuser. In testing the car looked fast and in Robert Kubica's hand's it could have won a few races. Now that Kubica is sadly in hospital, the burden falls on Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov. Nick can be occasionally quick and this is his last chance to prove himself. Petrov was a bit accident prone at the start of last year but got better, if he can sustain that level of improvement then it may be good for him. Otherwise it could be Nelson Piquet...

Other teams to follow.

Squiffy.

F1 - mid-season 2010 - Bulls in a china shop

It's mid-season, and I though I'd do a little look at how the season is panning out.

So far, we've had an outstanding car, an outstanding team, some outstanding drives and an outstanding season. After Bahrain, it looked like the season was going to be boring, far from it. Five drivers have led the championship, but it shouldn't be as close as it is.

Red Bull has the outstanding car. It's super fast and it's getting more reliable. No-one can really come close in qualifying trim, and barring a few reliability problems at the beginning of the season this car should be leading the championship by some way. It isn't. The drivers are at war, and the team are joining in.

In Turkey, the collision between Vettel and Webber was a disaster and lead to bad blood. That could have been handled, but the Red Bull side of the garage pointed the finger at Mark Webber when most thought it was probably 60% Vettel's fault. It surely, made Webber feel unloved. This weekend's decision to take the front wing off Webber's car and give to Vettel, to replace his broken wing, just before qualifying was a bad decision. It did show favouritism, and Christian Horner's explanation of it going to the person with most points in the championship didn't hold true, when a new part was fitted to Vettel's car before Webber's when Webber was leading the championship.

The team is in danger of losing this championship because of bad driver management, and that would be a tragedy.

The outstanding team has been McLaren. Without the fastest car, they are leading both championships, and with a driver harmony unparalleled for a team with two champions. They are playing catch up and if they can make the blown diffuser work for Hockenheim they may be able to compete on pace and tear apart the Red Bull team. Both drivers are driving beautifully. Lewis Hamilton has got a new maturity, learnt from Button no doubt, that will make him the most formidable opponent on the grid. Button has won two brilliant wet/dry races and is performing much better against Lewis than I dared hope!

Each of the four drivers at the top have driven brilliantly, but Alonso and Massa have been a disappointment. They've both made bug mistakes, and the team seems to be falling back into it's pre-Todt mould of making bad decisions and blaming everyone else. After Alonso's outburst at Valencia, I couldn't help but laugh when he got a penalty at Silverstone, but when the safety car came out, the outcome was disastrous for him. But he should have handed the place back to Kubica. Lewis Hamilton was stripped of a win in Spa 2008, even when he did hand back a place, so talk of an unfair penalty does not hold up.

Schumacher is a disappointment, he doesn't seem to have the same race craft - but can we ever remember him being good in the mid-field? No, because he was never there! Maybe the fact that he was always in a good car let him get rusty, way before his three year absence.

I'm liking that Williams are having a resurgence and that Lotus are doing best of the new teams.

It's been a great season so far, and I think it will get even better!

Squiffy.