Eastleigh: the aftermath

After the Eastleigh by-election, there will be a lot of guff spoken. It's the same after every election bar the general.

The Lib Dems did well to win, they are great local campaigners and once they get a foothold in an area they are hard to shift! UKIP did spectacularly well to come from nowhere to second. It was disappointing for the Tories and Labour.

That's the headlines. Underneath though it's quite interesting. UKIP have now become the party of protest, which should be worrying for Labour. If the public run for a party with only one recognisable politician and policy when the Government is so unpopular, and that person is not the leader of the opposition then the opposition is doing something wrong. The Labour party made no headway, and they should be in these circumstances.

It's a bit worrying for the Tories, but they are the prime governing party and so it would generally be unusual for them to win a seat when in midterm unpopularity. The Chris Huhne and Lord Rennard affairs didn't seem to have much effect and did not benefit the Tories. The Lib Dems may do worse in a general election though.

I would be surprised to see UKIP use this as a real springboard for national elections. They are still a party of protest with one known popular policy. The rest of the policies do not stand up to scrutiny, lots of tax cuts and more spending make the Labour party look economically sound. Voters thinking of going for UKIP who actually want a referendum would be better going for David Cameron's deal of a referendum after the next election.

The Tories should be worried that UKIP will pull enough votes to put Ed Miliband in number 10. And UKIPs should think again because Ed Miliband will never give a referendum (because he'll lose). Tory headbangers should beware a lurch to the right though, it will never win over the electorate.

Squiffy.