Tony Benn: RIP

Today it was announced that Tony Benn had died at the age of 88. Sad, but he had a good long life even if the last year or so was a bit sickly. As someone who I would always disagree with politically, he was someone you could respect because he was articulate, thoughtful, unbending and not driven by the latest fads or opinions.

The two ends of political ideology start from two points of human outlook. Some people think that things could be done a lot better, have a vision of a kind of utopia and then try to fashion laws and movements to try to change people to create the new ideal. Other people also think that things could be done a lot better, but don't think that it's possible to change human nature. These people will try to use human nature to nudge society in the right direction.

If you can read between the lines, the utopians sit on the left of the political spectrum, while the human natur-ists (no, not the nudes) sit on the right. Which is why communists and socialists, like Tony Benn, believe in nationalisation, command economies, incomes and prices policies and believe it can be achieved. Even when the whole weight of the evidence shows that it does not work. As a current example, take a look at Venezuela, after years of socialism and a command economy, people living in a country with a quarter of the world's oil cannot buy toilet paper.

People on the right believe that competition and human instincts aren't wrong and can be used to drive society forward. Though there must be regulations, and safety nets for the poor.

The majority of the world has come to the capitalist view, even after the financial crash, but there's still a lot of people around who believe in the utopian view, like Tony Benn and the young Owen Jones. They're just plain wrong, the evidence shows it doesn't work. Just like with creationists, you'll have fun arguing until you have to bang your head against a brick wall. They'll say that it's not been tried in its pure forms, the media or outside factors destroyed the experiment - but that's just human nature!

That's also why people on the right respect the ones on the left - we understand what they want to achieve - we just don't believe it can ever work. I suppose it explains the visceral hatred of those on the left for those on the right, because they see us as trying to dismantle and destroy the utopian ideal.

Anyway, back to Tony Benn. A great orator, and a great democrat (he wasn't a communist). He renounced his peerage so that he could be elected to parliament. And being a great democrat he saw the EU for what it is, a huge anti-democratic bureaucracy run by an elite. That is the one thing I really agree with him on.

So, Rest In Piece Comrade,

Squiffy.

F1 2014: Nearly here

We've now had the first three tests and the first Grand Prix of the season will be starting in 5 days time. It's time to look at the prospective teams and drivers.

Red Bull
The Red Bull team have had a traumatic pre-season. The car looks great, but is very tightly packaged, as you'd imagine from Adrian Newey. The Renault engine has been very problematic. Initially unreliable, they had hardware and software issues. They fixed some of the hardware issues but the software still had bugs.

Even when the engine was more reliable, the tight packaging of the car led to fires and frequent stops on track. The first test was a disaster, the second and third showed brief spells of the old Red Bull but were more often punctuated by stops and red flags. It really was and is a crisis. Most people have written them off, I think the first few races will be difficult but they will probably turn it around mid season - but by that time I think it will be too late to fight for this year's championships.

I expect that Sebastian Vettel will be more troubled than usual regarding the reliability but will have the measure of Daniel Ricciardo. This season we will really see what the current champion is made of.

Mercedes
The new Mercedes is looking very good. The engine looks like the best of the three, and has shown reliability and speed. There have been a few issues for the team, but it looks like the problems occurred when they were really pushing the car. The Red Bull never really got that close. Both drivers managed to do several race distances and had good pace.

I think the most fascinating aspect to this season will be who comes out on top between Hamilton and Rosberg. Last year was close, and I think this year will be closer. I think Lewis will be the fastest over the year, but with Rosberg grabbing quite a few victories and pushing Hamilton hard. It will be difficult for the team to manage. I expect Mercedes and Hamilton to be champion by the end of the year, if not Hamilton then Rosberg.

Ferrari
I think the Ferrari looks ugly this year with its really squashed nose. The car has been very reliable in testing, and has shown reasonable pace, but it looks less drivable than the Merc and there are serious rumours that there are problems with fuel usage which could see the cars drop down the order.

It will be fascinating to see whether Alonso or Raikkonen comes out on top. I believe that Alonso will be more consistent and may win a few of the races, but will become annoyed by another year not being able to realistically fight for the championship.

Lotus
The Lotus is intriguing with the double tusk nose. Another Renault runner, it has had a difficult pre-season, missing the first test and sitting out lots of time with issues in the second and third tests. We don't really know the pace and I'm not sure we will until the season has set in a little.

It's Grosjean versus Maldonaldo at Lotus and I know which one my money will be on. Grosjean showed speed at the end of last year and Maldonaldo is too inconsistent. Whether either will get a chance to shine this year will be difficult to say.

McLaren
The McLaren is looking better than last year, although the front of it makes it look like someone who's taken a lot of cocaine! Running the reliable Mercedes engine helps, and they looked good in the first and second tests, but seemed to not move forward as much as the other teams by the third test. So it may get them podiums but maybe no wins.

The team has a new fast rookie in Kevin Magnussen and he was looking very confident and fast. I believe we may be about to witness a re-run of the 2007 Alonso/Hamilton scenario where the rookie is shown to be faster than the experienced World Champion. Although given Button's laid back attitude I don't think there will be the same fireworks. Which one comes out on top is difficult to say!

Force India
Another Mercedes runner which looked good in testing, albeit not as quick as the Mercedes and Williams, this should be a good year for the team. Nico Hulkenburg is back and I think the combination should be great with some giant killing performances. I expect Nico and Sergio Perez to be fighting with the Ferraris throughout the year. I expect Hulkenburg to have the measure of Perez.

Sauber
The Sauber was very twitchy in testing but proved to be reliable with the Ferrari engine. It did the largest amount of laps in one day, but went off on several occasions, due to the poor fly by brakes. I think they will struggle to show the same pace as late last year. I also think the driver line up is weak. Sutil should come out on top but it could be either.

Toro Rosso
The Toro Rosso seems to have chosen the wrong time to go from a Ferrari engine to Renault, and have said they are one month behind schedule. The car has been only slightly more reliable than the senior team's due to the greater cooling. It's another ugly car due to the sex toy like front nose.

I'm not sure whether we can see who will do better between Daniel Kvyat and Jean-Eric Verne, though this must be JEV's last year at a guess.

Williams
The Williams is looking fantastic, which I think is marvellous. Last year was dire by their standards, but this year they are fast and very reliable. In fact, they may just have an edge on the Mercedes which should be interesting fro Felipe Massa and Valteri Bottas. I really hope that they do have a good car, I would like to see the team battling at the front on a regular basis.

I expect it to be quite close between Massa and Bottas and am not sure which will come out the winner. I also hope the new surroundings give Massa a renewed vigour which he lost playing second fiddle to Alonso at Ferrari.

Marussia
The Marussia had a slow start to testing, turning up for the last day of the first test but have shown some reliability and with some consistency may be able to snatch their first points of the year. The car looks tidy and so I'm hopeing for some good things.

Caterham
The Caterham has to have some marks for the ugliest nose in F1. With their Renault engine I expect them fall behind Marussia, although they appear to have provided more cooling than the other Renault racers.

The returning Kobayashi is good value, but whether he can show any of the battling overtaking that he's known for will be another matter. I don't know enough of Marcus Ericsson to be able to say.


It should be a fascinating year, and I'm really looking forward to it.

Squiffy.

Much ado Ron Ron

Yesterday was interesting in F1. Ron Dennis is back. He's been quiet since leaving the role of team principal in 2009. But yesterday he was made the CEO of McLaren again, usurping Martin Whitmarsh.

It's been rumoured for a while that Ron and Martin have been at loggerheads. Apparently, Ron wanted to bring back the 2012 McLaren last year when the 2013 model was found to be a dud. He was sceptical of the hiring of Sergio Perez and pushed for his ousting at the ending of last year.

There's been no news on who the team principal will be, but Mr Dennis has made it known that there will be changes. At the meeting at McLaren, the whole staff were present to hear of Ron's comeback but Mr Whitmarsh was not present. If he was certain to remain they would both be there presenting a united front, so one has to wonder! It looks like Ron Dennis will not be on the pit wall, and so who are the candidates?

Possibly, Sam Michael on a temporary basis until a certain Ross Brawn finishes his gardening/fishing leave?

I'll be sorry to see Martin Whitmarsh go, he seems like a thoroughly nice guy but you get marked by your results and McLaren have underperformed for well over a decade.

Interesting times at Woking.

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband: The Economic Big Speech! Err, where was it?

At the beginning of this week we were told that little Ed Miliband was going to be making a big speech on the economy on Friday. Ooh, excitement! Was it going to be embracing the coalition spending plans? Was it going to be a change to business rates? Was it going to be a new prices and incomes policy? Was he going to go for a flat tax system? Was he going to go all out for reflation? Nope. Nothing like it.

Banker bashing. Again. I've lost count of the number of times that he's had a speech on banking. Monthly he seems to change where the tax on bankers bonus is going to focus, I can't remember this month whether it is for new homes, 'creating' jobs, or a new sheepdog for every second house. Never mind that in the next breath he wants to reduce bankers bonuses - which obviously means he'd get less for his latest pet project spending! But don't let economics get in the way of his economics speech!

This time, he wants to create new challenger banks. He thinks the banks are too big. Remind me, who was it who allowed the banks to get bigger? His gang. Who was it who forced the solvent Lloyds to ruin itself bailing out HBOS? His gang. Who was it who allowed Santander to buy up loads of banks such as Alliance & Leicester, Bradford & Bingley ? His gang.

A bit late to start saying the banks are too big now! Never mind bloody hypocritical! Mind you, should we be surprised. Anyway, why does Miliband think its up to the Government to create some new banks. We've already got one big one that we're desperately trying to get rid of. Andrew Neil made the valid point, too, that these banks won't have much capital and so are unlikely to provide large amounts of funding for SME's as required by Mr Miliband. So a load of rubbish really.

Going back to the charge of hypocrisy, earlier this week Mr Miliband found his old note about the squeezed middle down the back of the sofa and decided to read it out again. Everyone knows that if Labour get back in rather than spending cuts there will be tax rises. To get the most bang for your tax increase, it's the middle that gets hit. Labour's usual instrument of torture is via National Insurance. So be very wary of Red Ed's middle-speak, he's no Tony Blair.

So, move along. Nothing to see here.

Squiffy.

Hypotecation for the NHS? I Danny you're onto something

One of my favourite columnists is Danny Finkelstein, now a Lord. This week he came up with the idea of having a separate tax for the NHS. The reason for this is so that the public know how much we have to pay for the 'free' health service.

We'd also know how much the cost was going up each year. Let's just say that he doesn't support hypothecation for other areas, just the NHS. There's a lot to agree with here, transparency being the main reason. As costs increase and taxes went up, the unaffordable path of the NHS would have to b tackled.

Lord Finkelstein is a close friend of the Chancellor, and so who knows? It may be more than a fanciful idea!

Squiffy

Why does Government mess up IT?

There was an article on the Daily Politics today about Government IT projects. Francis Mause said that they are changing the way in which IT projects occur and that it's improving the situation. I believe him, it could hardly be worse.

The last Government wasted £12Bn on the NHS computer system. I'll say that again. £12Bn. That's mammoth. You have to stand back in disbelief when Labour shadow ministers complain about the £40m misspent on the Universal Benefits project.

For non-IT professionals, I'll give the low down on why IT projects go wrong. The old way of doing projects meant that there would be a desired aim for the project.Project Managers and Analysts would then spend months and months writing requirement specifications, trying to nail down every last item of functionality (what the project should do). When a specification was finally agreed it be outsourced to one of the large IT contractors who would start work on it. After several years, the project would be delivered back and the Government would find out that it didn't do what was necessary.

There would then need to be a re-design, possibly a large one. Maybe there were so many flaws that it had to be completely ditched. Many times the Analysts got some requirements wrong, or needed to add new ones. Political priorities change, new responsibilities get added on. As the end of the project nears it becomes frantic and previously essential features get dropped and scaled down.

This system is called the Waterfall approach, every stage feeds onto the next. The problems are that each stage takes for ever, and you only find out how badly the stage went at the end - several years later.

A new project methodology, called Agile, has changed the way big projects can be tackled. The project starts with little detail and gets broken down into 'stories' and tasks. The stories get fleshed out and implemented in an 'iteration' or 'sprint' which could be a few weeks or nothing more than one month. These sprints contain less than 10 people in the development team, and so there may be more than one team working on different functional areas. At the end of the month, all the implemented stories and collected into a demo and shown.

This way, the project managers and clients can see it develop and point out flaws, or extra requirements and things not liked. The development team can also have a say on what went wrong in the sprint and hopefully make improvements for next time. As time goes by the projects get closer to completion. "Must have" features have to be completed, and "nice to have" are just that. In theory, this means that there should be few surprises, including all the essential features and having been demo'ed to the client throughout.

This latter method is what Francis Maude's team are using. It's certainly better than the old Waterfall method, and its about time.

Although there will be some problems and some money will be misspent, its likely to be much less than before. Let's hope so!

Squiffy.

F1 2014: Carnage

F1 testing will be start in a little over two weeks for the new season. Last season was a bit dull, but the new one is promising to be a bit spicy, and the test sessions are going to be interesting.

This year there are changes to the aerodynamics. The new single raised exhaust will kill the coanda effect feeding the difuser. The front wing will be narrower and the nose cone will be lower, unfortunately this may bring back the stepped nose. The rear beam wing is gone, but the monkey wing will be back.

The biggest change though is to the engine, or power unit, as we will now have to call it. Out go the 2.4 litre V8s, in comes 1.6 Litre turbo V6s. Unlike the V6s turbos of the pre-1989 era, these will not be 1200 BHP monsters. They will develop around 550 BHP, and be limited to 100 litres of fuel, roughly a third less than now. Rather than KERS for 6.7 seconds, there will be two energy recovery systems; one the kinetic energy from braking and secondly the heat from the exhaust gases. These will be deployed for much longer in the lap (I think 33 seconds) but will take 2 laps to replenish.

This is going to be interesting, and that's why testing is going to be fascinating. No one knows which of the three engines, Mercedes, Ferrari or Renault is the most powerful. No one knows how their ERS systems will compare, what about their patterns of usage and fuel economy. It's all new. So, when testing starts we should see lots of problems and blow ups.

This could last into the first few races of the year. We've got used to reliable cars with most finishing the races. This could all change, and many are predicting pandemonium in the first few races. Most commentators think that it should then settle down. I don't think so! There is a reduced restriction of 5 engines per season. Down from 8.

What does that mean? With all the uncertainty and possible blow ups at the beginning of the year, drivers will be running out of engines - maybe by half way through the season. They then get grid penalties. I'm predicting that towards the end of the year most of the grid will have grid penalties and it will cause major controversy! It should be fascinating!

Squiffy.

2013 Marks and 2014 Predictions

It's that time of year again when I mark myself against last year's predictions and make some for the next year.

Firstly, last years predictions:

1. The economy will really start to recover, growing by 1% overall this year. 1 point
2. Along with the economy, the Government's fortunes will improve slightly. Polls at the end of the year will be around 38% Labour, 34% Tory, 12% LibDem, 8% UKIP. Pretty close. 1 point.
3. Chris Huhne will not go to prison, but he will not return to Government either. 0 points.
4. Fernando Alonso will win the World Championship, from Sebastien Vettel. 0 points.
5. Lewis Hamilton will win at least one race this year in his new Mercedes. Spot on, 1 point.
6. Andrew Mitchell will be exonerated of 'plebgate' and the officer who made the allegations will be found out. Mr Mitchell will return to Government in a mini reshuffle in the late summer. 1/2 point.
7. Kate Middleton's baby will be a girl and will carry the name of Elizabeth and Diana in some order. 0 points.
8. There will be a monetary scandal involving a cabinet minister forcing them to resign. 0 points.
9. David Miliband will agree to join the Labour front bench. 0 points.
10. The Eurozone will have a fresh crisis in September when everyone is convinced the problems have been solved. 0 points.

Overall, 3.5 points out of 10. Not very good. Oh well, maybe 2014 will be better!

And now for this year's predictions:

1. The economy will grow by 2.5% to 3% this year.
2. The opinion polls will end the year at 36% Tory, 35% Labour, 12% LibDem, 10% UKIP.
3. The European elections will give Labour the lead, UKIP 2nd (just behind), Tories 3rd and LibDems 4th.
4. Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship.
5. The Ferrari power plant will be bad, leading to Alonso ditching them and joining McLaren for 2015.
6. Tony Blair will speak out against Ed Miliband's leadership.
7. Vince Cable will resign or be sacked (hopefully).
8. Peter Mandelson will do Strictly.
9. Scotland will vote against independence.
10. Gordon Brown will announce he's leaving parliament in 2015.

Let's see how I do this year,

Squiffy

F1: Disappearing up its own DRS

Today there's the news that from next year there will be permanent number for each driver. Fine, no problem.

The more disturbing news is that the final round will be awarded double points. Err, why? Why that one, why not the first one? Surely every round should be worth the same. I believe it's to try to make the championship go to the last round, but we seem to be getting further and further away from what F1 is supposed to be.

Last week there was talk of forcing cars to have two pitstops, limiting lots of strategy options. I know that Bernie mentioned a few years ago of shortcuts which you could use 3 times in a race - I thought he'd been taking the funny pills and there was no chance. I'm not so sure that it won't happen now.

What is happening to the sport I love? The measures recently to try to spice up the action have made it artificial and detract from true talent. Lewis Hamilton is the best overtaker in the business and yet everyone can overtake with DRS. The tyres are so marginal that no-one can be on it for more than a lap.

As soon as you start making it artificial, the flood gates open to more artificial measures. DRS, as Sir Humphrey would say, was the thin end of the wedge.

Please stop before I turn off.

Squiffy

All change in F1

So Sebastien Vettel is F1 World Champion again. Well done to him, but I'm now getting board. The season started well, but once Red Bull got into their stride it became a bit samey.

I'm now looking forward to next year. There's a lot of change with regards to the regulations, but there's a lot of driver moves. Raikkonen to Ferrari, Massa to Williams, possibly Hulkenburg to Lotus (although refusing to go for the last two races may have spiked that), Kevin Magnussen to McLaren, Perez to where? And what about Di Resta?

It's looking interesting. Now lets just have someone build a car better than Red Bull.

Squiffy.

Help to headline

The last week has seen a multitude of discussion pieces on the BBC asking whether the Help to Buy scheme is leading to housing bubble.

Partly this is due to the Government's decision to bring phase two forward. This means that the potential mortgagee only has to pay a 5% deposit and the Government will underwrite the next 20% but even so the bank or building society has to provide the remaining  95%.

Before the financial crisis there had been 95% mortgages, I bought my flat on one such mortgage in 2001 - way before the housing market over-heated. It was a little later that 100% mortgages became available, and even later that 125% mortgages became available which seems to make no sense apart from relying on house price inflation. It did become bizarre. But we are nowhere near that.

Without help to buy you would probably need 20% deposit to buy a house - which puts most property beyond most. If most people can't buy property and are stuck where they are, there will be no reason for new houses to be built unless they're mansions affordable by only people with a stash of cash. House prices would jump higher given the housing shortage.

The purpose behind help to buy is to enable people to jump on the housing ladder, get the market moving, give impetus to build and make everyone feel better.

The basis of debate is whether a more healthy housing market will lead to unsustainable housing inflation and a bubble. We know that it might if we don't build more houses, so we need to get building, but the housing market needs to be moving first. At least the Government has tried to relax planning rules to make it easier.

But do people really believe we're on the verge of a boom only 6 months after talk was of a triple dip and after 5 years of dire horrible news. It's way too early! Get a grip! The IMF revised our growth rates up to 1.4% this year and 1.9% next year, that is no way like boom territory (which is more like 3% against our trend rate).

Even if this did start to cause a boom, the Government can very quickly withdraw support for new mortgages and even close the scheme at a few days notice!

Which makes me think why is this all over the BBC? What would make the impartial BBC devote so much time to a boom where there isn't one? Can't understand it.

Squiffy.

David Cameron Speech: Verdict

I was away on the day of David Cameron's speech, so didn't cover it on the day but I thought I'd say a few words about the speech for completeness.

The speech was ok. He didn't have any new policies, but was trying to form an argument. It was reasonably effective, but didn't blow your socks off.

I know David Cameron is a good speaker, but he has done the best speeches when his back is against the wall. His speech for the leadership, and again when Gordon Brown was thinking of an immediate General Election were his best. They both were when he did the speech without notes. I believe he thinks this makes him look less Prime Ministerial, but he needs to inspire. Especially now, when he has an upbeat message.

Next year, he either needs to do a speech without notes (but none of the cheesy geekiness of Ed Miliband) or find a Sam Seabourne/Toby Zeigler combo to give his oratory the lift it needs.

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband Speech: Verdict

Brilliantly delivered march to the left.

At the weekend Ed Miliband was asked if he was a socialist, and he said yes with enthusiasm. I thought it was just something to say in response. Today, we see that he really means it. When he was elected leader he said that New Labour was dead. It's not just dead, it has been hung, drawn and quartered. One Notion Labour is sucking spangles, wearing flares, and singing Slade whilst setting a course for the 1970's.

Ed Miliband grew up in the treasury, but obviously learnt nothing. Firstly, there is the £800m extra bank levy. Anyone knows that due to the necessity to hold enough capital to lend, say 10% at the most optimistic, this will mean £7.2Bn will be taken out of the economy. Really great way to stifle recovery.

Secondly, the energy freeze, whilst populist, is a recipe for disaster. We need so much investment in our energy supply to provide provision for the future and keep the lights on. Why would a company invest when under price controls? They won't. It all sounds like a mini Price and Incomes policy - I thought we'd moved so far away from that nonsense.

Ed, in a long hurrah for the NHS, gave a list of achievements under the last Labour Government then said that he would reverse the market based reforms which achieved them. A fully integrated 'NHS' was mentioned, but how? Just repeal a few laws. So more re-organisation. That'll please them.

Wrap-around childcare was a good policy, but how will it be paid for? There was loose talk of reorganising priorities. For quite an expensive policy, that's some ask!

Obviously, the 'bedroom tax' was ditched, and that was all the mention of welfare reform. Apart from 'we can do better than this'.

No real mention of economic policy. Apart from 'we can do better than this'.

No direct policy about immigration. Apart from 'we can do better than this'. Oh apart from the fact that companies had to come up with an apprenticeship for an under-trained Brit. I'm not sure many companies will do this, so may be that is their immigration policy!

A real march to the left. Michael Foot would be proud. Tony Blair is probably filling in his Tory membership papers right now. Can there be a new SDP?

Anyway, until next week.

Squiffy.

Nick Clegg Speech: Verdict

Today was Nick Clegg's speech to the Lib Dem conference.

The task at conference was to look ahead to the next election and prepare some policies for negotiation at a possible hung parliament. It was probably the best conference for Nick Clegg, the muttering about his leadership has gone and there doesn't look like there will be a challenge. Vince Cable made an arse of himself as usual, if I was Nick Clegg I would sack him as soon as possible.

The style of the speech was nothing extraordinary and you could tell where he wanted his applause by how loud his voice would go.

The speech itself was fine, again nothing extraordinary, the usual platitudes and plagues on both your houses. He delivered it well but there were no surprises. The much trailed free school meals for infants was applauded, but no explanation about the inconsistency with the removal of universal benefits for others.

It irked that he was saying that recovery wouldn't have happened without the Lib Dems, and that he set the purpose of Government to be social mobility. I think the Tories have a greater stand out claim for these. The Lib Dem's purpose has been to stop certain policies.

It was notable that many times he mentioned Liberal purposes and traditions, I don't think he mentioned the Social Democrat element once. It shows where he's coming from. Definitely from the Orange book wing. It's this that's making the Cable morose. Although he's saying that he's equi-distant, I do think there is going to be difficulties working with Ed Miliband.

So, the verdict was: ok, nothing special.

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband in a pickle

The last few weeks have been a bit difficult for the younger Miliband, but mainly of his own making!

Firstly the spat with the unions caused by Falkirk selection process promised Miliband his 'Clause 4' moment when he made his speech saying that things had to change. If Miliband can achieve significant change to Labour's relationship with the unions it would certainly go down as a brilliant coup, alongside Kinnock's 1985 conference ousting of militant.

Since the announcement, though, there appears to have been some backtracking. The members of Falkirk Labour party who were suspended have been reinstated, and the report into the affair has been kept under lock and key. The threats of reduced funding from GMB seems to have shaken the resolve. His speech to the TUC was underwhelming.

If the link was truly reformed, the funding would be cut from the unions as union members were opted in - just like Ed Miliband has suggested. Also, though, the block vote at conference would have to be ditched and the unions would lose their vote in the leadership elections. For this to happen though, these changes would have to be passed by a vote and I think this is unlikely. Each MP voting would be wondering about the funds to their local party and their election warchest. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. It's for this reason that I think the backtracking will continue. In such circumstances, Ed Miliband will be seen as weak.


Secondly, I was dismayed by Ed Miliband's choice on the Syria vote. In meetings with the PM he was shown intelligence and given access to military opinions. He asked for reassurances from the PM, and was given them. After leaving the meetings he asked for further reassurances and was given them too, he asked for a second vote and was given it. He was given all he wanted and yet when it came to the crunch he still voted against. It was cowardly and he put party unity above principle and I could not be more ashamed of a leader of one of our major parties.

Afterwards it looked like a bit of a victory for Ed Miliband, but I think in retrospect this will be when he seen at his weakest. Not able to muster his troops only able to follow them. Duplicitous and not to be trusted is about the politest thing I could say. I would have hoped for better.


It is against this background that the next few months will be seen. He has to make a stirring speech at the conference, but without any policies and against a recovering economy will he be able to show much vision? The polls have tightened and the Tories are looking more confident and united than they have for some time. It's looking bad, can Ed turn it around?

Squiffy.

It's Red Egg

Today Ed Miliband was hit by eggs. It's pretty symbolic of the Labour party in the last few weeks, as MP after commentator after MP has thrown eggy suggestions to the leader of the opposition.

It has been a turnaround in fortunes for the two parties, the first change since the Omnishambles budget. The polls have narrowed but not quite turned yet, but there is a new trend setting in and Mr Miliband needs to change the narrative quickly. The story at the moment is of drift, no clear message and wavering policies.

A shadow reshuffle is in the offing and shadow ministers have been silent over the summer and when they have spoken up, like Chris Bryant, they've made a hash of it. The rumour is that Ed Miliband has been focussing on his conference speech, but a speech rarely changes the national mood, and while he has been silent the Government has been making hay (which is usually the opposition's job in summer).

It appears that the uptick in the economy is obliterating the Labour message of 'cutting too fast and too soon' and the public are now swinging behind the cuts more firmly. It's funny that the biggest cuts were enacted this April and so if the cuts were going to have an effect on the economy, you'd expect a contraction - in fact there was further expansion. It seems confidence and Europe have been a bigger factor. Anyway, the new Labour message is about the cost of living. They won't tell you has been getting worse since 2005, never mind the biggest recession since the depression.

The next few weeks and months will be interesting...

Just as an aside, the BBC are referring to today's German growth figures of 0.7% as strong, but referred to the UK's of 0.6% as weak. Bias? I couldn't say.

Squiffy.

It is summer, so Felipe Massa's position is under threat

For the third year running Felipe Massa's seat is under threat. The rumour this year is that Ferrari may decide to lure Kimi Raikkonen away from Lotus to replace the Brazilian. This would be a strange turnaround, after all Ferrari paid Raikkonen off to get him out of his contract to bring Fernando Alonso in. They chose Massa over Raikkonen.

It has become transparently clear, though, that Massa is on borrowed time. Either his injury, or the latest selection of tyres has stopped him being ultimately competitive and there has only been one occasion when he has threatened for a win, when he was forced aside as Rob Smedley delivered the line 'Fernando is faster than you'.

The yearly discussion over whether Massa should retain the Ferrari seat is as predictable as snow messing up the railways. It's clear that Massa is not pushing Alonso, he won't be in a position to challenge for the championship and Ferrari's constructors championship points are being hampered by the Number 2's side of the garage. They need a stronger driver.

Whether that is Raikkonen I don't know. He likes it at Lotus where they let him live his life as he wants. Also, he is also wanted by Red Bull, and the Alonso to Red Bull, Raikkonen to Ferrari rumours may be just bargaining tools from both sides of the Red Bull/Raikkonen deal. In which case Ferrari should go for Di Resta, Hulkenburg or Bianchi.

It would be good to see Raikkonen at Red Bull to give Vettel a good challenge, but I think Lotus needs him more than he needs them so they may try hard to convince him to stay. Also there is the fact that what is the Red Bull young driver programme for if it doesn't deliver drivers into the senior team. Daniel Ricciardo is a good driver and we still have to see whether he has what it takes - so to encourage other young drivers maybe they should keep the faith.

Where does this leave Massa? He's still a good driver, and maybe he could end up at Lotus or a third stint at Sauber. But it's time to end the yearly Massa-hunt.

Squiffy.

Lies, Damned lies, and statistical revisions

As I predicted in an earlier post, the double dip recession has now vanished. The revisions have removed them from history. At the same time, and even worse for Labour, the first recession has been revised to be even worse. So the recovery is harder to take hold.

Earlier in the week we heard that the deficit had slightly increased for 2012/13, and Labour were all over it. But remember revisions! The 2011/12 deficit was revised down more than the 2012/13 deficit and so it appeared to increase, but just like 2011/12 was revised down this year so can 2012/13 next year keeping the downward trend. The good news is that the deficit is being revised down rather than up.

Things seem to be improving at the moment, and I think it will continue. I expect growth to be nearer 1.5% this year, and the deficit to reduce further than official expectations. I really hope so!


Squiffy.

We escaped triple dip, we could still escape double dip

Last year we entered a double dip recession. Or did we?

Like a bureaucratic tardis, the ONS may be about to revise the figures for Q4 2011, Q1 and Q2 2012 so that the double dip becomes a figment of our imagination. It looks like one quarter only has to be revised upwards from - 0.07 to break the double dip.

If it does happen I hope the news outlets, BBC specifically, will give the same prominence to the news as it did to the news of the imaginary double dip... Some hope!

Squiffy.

Let UKIP be the protest vote, and not the vote of the right

Tonight and tomorrow we'll find out how well UKIP did in the local elections. I think they'll get just over 20 percent.

People of the left, and right and centre are voting for UKIP as a protest, which is fine. There always needs to be a party to represent protest, it used to be the Lib Dems but not now they're in Government. But anyone who classifies themselves as someone of the right and seriously thoughtful, should consider the policies and implications.

A vote for UKIP is a vote for tax cuts and extra spending to the tune of £60 a year. Margaret Thatcher wanted to balance the books, and Nigel Farage is not her heir. They will accelerate this country's descent into a debt abys. If the only reason is for a vote for a UK exit from the EU, then the likely outcome is a Labour Government which will not give you a chance to have your say. If you are centre right vote Tory, not for the fantasists.

Squiffy