Holding back the tears. The end of May.

Yesterday the Prime Minister, Theresa May, resigned. It was not unexpected and had been on the cards at any time over the last three months. Her options had closed and she had finally lost the support of the cabinet. Although I'm glad to see her premiership over, it's always sad to see someone on the steps of Downing Street give up the job they love and when she broke down it did bring a tear to my eye.

I have no animosity to her but it was clear very early on (as I suspected before she got the job) that she was not equipped with the talents necessary for the job - and her disastrous election campaign showed exactly why. A shame.

On Thursday we had the EU elections, elections which we should not have been having, another symbol of her failure as PM. It is the only time I have gone into a voting booth not knowing who to vote for. I am a Tory but although I really wanted Dan Hannan to be re-elected as the MEP for our area I also really wanted to register my protest at the lack of will of parliament to deliver on the Brexit referendum.

My pencil hovered.

And then I did something I couldn't have imagined a year or so ago. I voted for Nigel Farage's party. Not for him, but for the simple message that we should be out of the EU by now. I want the Brexit party to have such a high vote that all those pushing for a second referendum realise that the leave vote is still there and in large numbers. Angry and ashamed of our parliament.

When the Tory party leadership election has concluded and there is a genuine Brexiteer in command I will return to my previous voting ways I am sure.

And now to the election itself.

I think there is only one strategy that can deliver Brexit. The candidate has to have a strategy mapped out. He or she needs to say:

When I am elected I will deliver Brexit. No ifs or buts. I am absolutely prepared to leave without a deal. I will contact the EU on my election in order to put in place the necessary deals to mitigate some of the effects of no deal so it can be as smooth as possible. If the EU wish to come to me and make an offer to change the Withdrawal agreement then I will consider it, but it won't delay us past the end of the year delivering Brexit. We leave on 31st October if they do not. 

Boris Johnson is the front runner but front runners in the Tory party hardly ever win. I have serious reservations about a BoJo premiership. He is now as divisive as other candidates. He was a rubbish foreign secretary. I don't trust him.

Matthew Parris and other remainers are tacking to BoJo as someone who can tack away from a difficult Brexit. That's also why I don't want him as PM.

I would much prefer someone serious like Dominic Raab, though I would hope his other policies aren't as simple as 1p off income tax. We need reform, of the type Michael Gove can provide. Unfortunately Gove has probably killed of his premiership by staying in as a cabinet member and selling May's deal.

One Cabinet Member that might just get away with it, that I really like, is Penny Mordaunt. She is human and a Brexiteer and can make fab speeches. Although she stayed in cabinet I did not hear her speak up for the deal and that may benefit her. If she has the opportunity to make a big public speech to the membership then I really hope she can nail it like David Cameron did in 2005.

Once we have a new leader I would hope that the polls quickly change and the Brexit party support can back the new PM. With Labour splintered the new PM should go for a quick election with a simple Brexit message in order to get a mandate to take us out whatever. If the polls don't change then we have a problem. Whatever, Corbyn cannot be allowed in, but without delivering Brexit it's a real chance.

So, at this stage, I hope PM for PM.

Squiffy.

May's deal is dead. Her premiership is over.

This morning Jeremy Corbyn pulled out of the Brexit talks, this followed Theresa May's meeting with the 1922 backbench committee. There is no compromise deal and it seems now inevitable that she will have to resign in a couple of weeks.

The Prime Minister will bring her deal back in the week beginning 3rd June, but this time as a bill rather than a motion. This is her last throw of the dice, and she has said she will go whatever the result. Though in order to get rid of her as quickly as possible pretty much guarantees that it will be voted down (even though there was a cat in hell's chance of it passing).

I wish she'd go now and as soon as possible, but I guess we can wait for another few weeks - it seems like we've been waiting for ever!

There now appears to be around twenty candidates for the leadership campaign when it starts, I hope that the vast number of candidates does not mean that it will be too long a campaign and they can whittle it down to the last two quickly. I want a new leader to be in place by mid to late July.

I though May would be a bad leader but she has been even worse than I imagined. I'll vote for the Brexit party in the EU elections and revert to Tory for any new General Election that I hope any new leader will call.

Squiffy.

Betrayal?

Yesterday there was a Cabinet meeting which lasted seven and a half hours. After which Theresa May made a podium speech where she opened the door to talks with Jeremy Corbyn whilst firmly shutting the door on a no-deal.

I have been angry since.

Now it is possible that this is a genius solution. They offer talks to Corbyn, he comes up with something which she can't agree to because it is lunacy and then he refuses to continue. We then drop through to no-deal forced on us by the EU. Thereby damaging the EU and Labour in the process. Genius right? Yes, but so unlikely. Do we really believe the PM has a really good tactical brain? No. She has made so many bad decisions that we can only believe that this is another one!

She has now thrown her party under the bus along with Brexit. Betrayal is a hard word, and with her current deal I would never had said it. A bad deal but basically achieving most of the Leave campaign. But Corbyn wants a customs union, which would betray one of the three pillars of the Leave campaign. It is betrayal.

We would end up in a position where our trade policy would be made in Brussels without our say so. Even less power than now and we would not be able to make our own trade deals. We are the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world and we cannot allow our trade policy to be determined elsewhere. It is ludicrous.

I cannot believe the cabinet has gone a long with this. There should be many resignations. The PM should resign immediately. I am so disappointed in Michael Gove, a talented secretary of state and leader of the Leave campaign. How could he countenance this?

None of this cabinet can be allowed to replace the leader of the remnants of the Tory party when this is over.

I will keep my membership until the next leader is announced, and depending on their policy I shall decide on whether to keep it.

Squiffy.

The Endgame?

The last few weeks have been very tumultuous in British politics. Theresa May's meaningful votes on her Brexit deal have failed twice. Other plans to leave via motions attached to the votes have not passed, but a 'no deal' motion did pass though this is non binding.

Over the last few days the PM has been to an EU summit and got a extension to the Brexit leave date, moved from March 29th to May 22nd if we pass a third meaningful vote or April 12th if we wish to participate in the next EU elections on account of needing a longer delay.

The PM also made a very bad speech to the country, in which she accused MPs of ignoring their constituents and that most people wanted to get on with Brexit. She was correct to say that most people want it over with but the tone was bad.

The Tory party is ripping itself apart. The Labour party has so many positions that it wouldn't look out of place in the Karma Sutra. No-one has a clue what will happen next.

There will be another meaningful vote in the next week, and probably some indicative votes to see if we need to go for a longer extension. I think that nothing will get a majority. Where will we go from there? Who knows.

It appears that Theresa May has moved slightly to favouring a no deal if her deal cannot pass, but it might be taken out of her hands! She has also enraged so many of her party colleagues that her premiership is hanging by a thread.

I'm of the opinion now that maybe her terrible deal is the best that can be hoped for, that parliament will not allow us to leave the EU if her deal goes down. Although I would prefer no deal, I suspect it won't happen by design only by accident and I'd rather have more certainty. But then again it's unlikely that deal will pass.

These are the strangest of times.

Squiffy.

More Leave Than Ever

It is now fewer than 60 days until we are supposed to leave the EU. I would like to reflect on everything that has happened since that day on 23rd June 2016.

I was pretty happy on the morning of 24th June. I had not always wanted to to leave the EU, but after the disaster of the Euro and how they had handled the financial crises of 2008, I had come to the conclusion that this organisation was no longer fit for purpose. And so I was happy: we were going to leave. We had been told that the referendum results would be respected.

I knew that the £350 million claim on the side of a bus was exaggerated (more like £250 million), and that Turkey was not close to joining. They had not been a factor in my choice to leave. Now though, the lies of the Remain side were exposed. There was a drop in the pound, but there was no emergency budget or major job losses. There was no economic pandemonium as predicted. Project Fear had not been correct. More on that later.

There was political pandemonium however. David Cameron had resigned, which I was sad about, I had liked him as Prime Minister. He fitted the part and had the emotional intelligence required for the role. I did not want Boris Johnson as PM and rather favoured Michael Gove as an intelligent man with radical ideas and very good at explaining himself. Unfortunately, Theresa May got the premiership by everyone else taking themselves out.

She was immediately popular and I could not understand why. She had survived as Home Secretary for 6 years which is a great feat for the most difficult office of state. But she had done that by keeping her head down. You can't do that as Prime Minister. In my mind she had been impressive once, when telling the party that they were described as the nasty party back in a party conference years ago. I could not expect her to carry the public with her for long because of that lack of emotional intelligence. It would be found out soon.

The Prime Minister did say the right things, however, about the direction of Brexit. She wanted to respect the results and go for a free trade agreement while leaving. No longer in the customs union or single market. This was what had been promised in the leave campaign and by the leaders of the remain campaign. She did make a few mistakes though. Her speech of  'people of somewhere vs people of nowhere' rubbed some up the wrong way.

While the Prime Minister was formulating how to proceed, the losers of the referendum started trying to find ways to frustrate the way. First was Gina Miller making it necessary for Parliament to agree to Article 50 to be passed rather than the Prime Minister. Although this was a pretty good idea it made it so that the Government was wrapped up in this supreme court case rather than creating a good view of the process. The Government should have accepted that the UK parliament should have a vote quickly without fighting.

Instead the Government should have started preparations for no deal. Six months to a year of intense planning and legislation should have been prepared. All the while this would be a contingency. The Government should also have been forming a settled view on what they wanted for a future partnership. The Prime Minister made an impressive speech at Lancaster House. It was what I had wanted.

She need to steel herself to fight against the EU plan for a two stage process, withdrawal then trade talks. This needed to be rejected outright. The Irish border would make a catch 22 situation out of these two stages. There was no way the withdrawal could be completed without a settled view on the border for the ending trade deal.

Unfortunately, agreeing to the two stage process has brought us to where we are today. There would be a further major mistake along the way to make everything so much harder.

And then we had the General Election. Theresa May was exposed as the deeply unimpressive campaigner. The 'Maybot' was coined. Her popularity plummeted and Corbyn's improved. What a disaster. The very reason why I had not wanted Theresa May as Prime Minister in the first place was now the general view. She could never fight another election as Prime Minister. We now had a Government dependent on the DUP and much harder numbers for parliamentarians to get a majority. Again, what a disaster!

We had triggered Article 50 and the date set for March 29th 2019 for our exit earlier in April, but due to the stupid EU rules the clock was now ticking, and we did nothing visible really apart from fight a pointless general election. 

After the election, we engaged in talks. During that time the forces of remain had started to gather again and it looked like not much progress was being made. In October the Prime Minister had her disastrous coughing fit at conference, and I could not watch. It wasn't her fault, but it did signify everything that was happening.  

It was at this time that it felt like the talks were going awry. The Irish border was becoming a problem. In December the Prime Minister was desperate for a signal that the deal was getting closer and so there was some artificial milestone for which she got some agreement. But, it had a bad form of words around the border and this was damning. The Prime Minister told her colleagues it was just a form of words and not sacrosanct. In fact this was the time that the 'Backstop' came about. David Davis, our Brexit secretary, had been blind sided as the PMs adviser Olly Robbins had taken over the negotiations. It was definitely going the wrong way.

But it was some kind of agreement. They had decided on £39Bn payment and some more on the way forward including a transition agreement. But it wasn't the end of the first step, withdrawal, it was just the beginning. How depressing.

The remainers continued to gather.

2018 continued along with the EU saying 'we don't know what the UK want'. They did, the Lancaster house speech specified the direction. A further Florence speech had re-iterated the way. But the Government did not have a settled view on how close to the EU we would be. Would our rules mirror the EU's, or would we go our own way? The lack of a decided view kept popping out into the open, with Government ministers speaking against each other. Philip Hammond vs Boris Johnson epitomised this conflict. The Chancellor wanted to stay in the customs union. The Foreign Secretary wanted a free trade agreement but with good alignment, so called Canada+++. After all we started from a position of being fully aligned. The speeches of the Prime Minster had set the path for Canada+++.

Then the bombshell. While the Brexit department had been planning for a Canada+++ kind of arrangement, Olly Robbins acting on behalf of the PM had prepared a much closer relationship with close alignment. The Chequers agreement was unveiled. The Government secretaries had not had much of a view on this, it was being done behind the scenes by civil servants.

The Brexit secretary and Foreign secretary resigned, as did many other ministers. Theresa May had lost the trust of many and ripped up her previous speeches. It was disgraceful. The Tory European Research Group (ERG) were outraged. The Prime Minister had lost them.

And the backstop.

The backstop had emerged from the text from those seeds in December. It would continue to be argued and negotiated by the new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, but he also didn't realise that he was just the face of Brexit and it was still Olly Robbins behind the scenes.

We were getting close to the withdrawal agreement emerging in full. The remainers had started a second referendum campaign, the so called 'People's Vote'. The first vote only having included the undead, animals and racists. Under the guise of  'we must be able to vote on the deal' this was just another way to undo the original referendum. If it wasn't then why would 'Remain' still be an option, and why is it only remainers who want a so called 'People's vote', who then say if it were to happen they'd vote remain, i.e. nothing to do with the deal.

The Withdrawal Agreement was agreed. The Backstop came fully into the open as a mechanism we may drop into as a customs union but with no exit clause. It was the worst aspect of the EU. Trying to trap us whilst saying they weren't. How could our Government agree to this constitutional hell? 

The Brexit secretary again resigned as did many other ministers. This was truly dire.

Some remainers were now pushing a 'Norway for now' deal'. A kind of stop gap on the way to a Canada+++ deal. A way to stay in the single market. This would evolve into a Norway+ deal, the plus being for the Customs Union - as a way to solve the Irish border problem. This really is awful, it is essential EU-. We would have the single market and customs union without any voting rights. So much worse than now. This would be rebranded again into Common Market 2.0. An abomination of a solution that should never have been born. The one thing that they didn't really explain, was that the Withdrawal Agreement would still have to be agreed to anyway.

So to the votes. It was clear there was no chance of it being passed. The Tories were largely split. The Labour party would not agree to anything. Their own position as clear as a muddy field. Corbyn wants the Tories to take the blame and then come in as PM through a General Election. He desperately doesn't want the 'People's vote' as many of his backbenchers do. In that case he would have to come down on one side of Remain and Leave again, and he'd not done it well the first time. He would continue to obfuscate.

Half way through the debate the PM decided to pause the process. What for, who knows? But now the ERG were completely up in arms and submitted their letters of no confidence, which she won and would now be safe for a year. It was high drama. But the clock was still ticking.

Christmas came and went. 2019 and three months left. The calls in parliament by remainers now is that 'no-deal must be taken off the table'. What? How does that work? You cannot legislate that one side of a negotiation has to agree no matter what. So that's not the reason - it's so that we remain in the EU. Of course it is.

Project Fear 2.0 is around again. Mars bars won't be in Britain, we won't have lettuces, tomatoes, medicines, water. Britain will be a massive car park. The scare mongering hasn't worked time and time again, why does anyone think we'll buy this bunkum again. Yesterday the BBC said a survey had announced a third of UK businesses would move operations abroad in the event of no deal. Not big business alone, all businesses. Now only 6% of UK businesses export to the EU. 85% of UK businesses are completely internal, but of course all those hairdressers down the high street will up sticks and move to Germany because of Brexit. They take us for fools.

The vote started again with no reason for the pause. She lost big time, 230 votes down. A calamity. What now?

The media panels are infuriating. The referendum was won 52% leave, but since the referendum 70% of panellists on Question Time have been those who voted remain. On any Question Time panel there is one who favours leave, a Corbynite who voted remain and who can't give any straight answers but that we can't leave on no deal, a remainer who wants Common Market 2,0 (i.e. EU-) or a People's vote where they would vote to remain and some comedian who thinks that all leavers are racists. Oh and a Government minister who voted to remain but now, through gritted teeth, thinks we should leave with this horrible plan. It is so biased.

There's been a series of votes in parliament as the EU is still saying 'We don't know what you want'. A second referendum wasn't even voted on as there aren't the numbers in parliament for it, but it won't stop them saying it's the only way forward. Taking no deal off the table has had a semi-thumbs up, intention but no legislation. Norway+/EU- has not been put forward as it will go down in flames even harder than the 'People's vote'. But there was a vote to change the backstop.

Some progress. The Withdrawal Agreement is woeful but the backstop is the worst of it. We won't agree to it, and now we have Donald Tusk still saying, what do you want. Well, we've told you that we may just swallow the withdrawal agreement but the backstop has to be removed, time limited, or have an exit mechanism for the UK. No the EU says. 'The agreement is agreed it cannot be re-opened'. Well, it is not agreed. Parliament has not agreed to it. It is a worthless collection of 585 pages without parliament agreeing to it. 

They may get the message, but for now we just get Irish, French and German politicians on our airwaves saying it cannot be changed. If there is an argument for leaving the EU, this is it. We cannot have any agreement because the EU is so inflexible. If anyone still thinks the EU can be reformed from within, take a look. It cannot.

Our remainers in parliament cannot reconcile themselves to the result of the referendum. They will try any way to stop us leaving. Norway+, EU-, Norway for Now, Common Market 2.0, People's Vote, Article 50 delayed, No deal off the table. They are all mechanisms to make sure we don't leave. And all those politicians are liars. They don't say that the real reason is to remain, but it is.

We can and should leave on 29th March. It will be bad if there is no deal, but we'll manage, and then we can put it all back together again. From outside the EU, they will will want a deal very quickly but without the threats. This time we won't be paying £39Bn. They will have had their chance, and their brinkmanship will not have worked, liked it didn't work when they brushed aside David Cameron's attempt at a meaningful renegotiation.

Maybe the EU will see sense and do something with the backstop, but they're holding out for our gutless remainers in parliament to take no deal off the table and do the EU's bidding for them. And I think that will happen. 

If we don't leave soon, there will be a new party and we will leave one day soon when that party comes into power and revokes our membership at the drop of a hat.

We must leave on 29th March and move on with our lives, we cannot keep going around this. We are getting very angry.

Our crappy government led badly from the top has badly served us but the alternative is worse and this rotten rump of parliamentarians are helping the EU. Meanwhile the EU watches on saying 'NO' to anything reasonable.

That's why I'm More Leave Than Ever.

Squiffy. 

2018 is over. Here comes 2019

I make my predictions every year and then see how badly I did at the end of it.

Here's my list of predictions from 2018.

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a fifth time. 1 point
2. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship, with Red Bull beating Ferrari to 2nd in the constuctor's Championship. 0 points
3. There will be disarray in Ferrari this year as their car is not as successful as the 2017 version. 0 points
4. There will not be a General Election in the UK in 2018.  1 point
5. There will be a quick agreement on a a Brexit transition deal and a final deal will be ready in October. 1/2 point (transition was agreed quickly, withdrawal deal was later in November)
6. It will be a very difficult process and possible constitutional crisis trying to get the EU Withdrawal through the House Of Lords. 1/2 point (it is a difficult process and has been cancelled once)
7. The Labour Party will have a little crisis over their position on Brexit with some resignations, and Corbyn will end the year less popular. 0 points (this is still to come)
8. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 41%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 3%. 1 point
9. UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 0 points (still to come)
10. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 0 points (still to come)

I make that 4 points out of 10, not good again. I thought Red Bull would do better than Ferrari, but that was not the case. Ferrari were in a little disarray but not as bad as I thought.

A lot of the political points I mentioned are still possible but now in 2019 - 2018 has been a year of treading water!

So here's my go for 2019 (11 this time as there's going to be a lot going on):

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship again.
2. Sebastien Vettel will be beaten by Charles Leclerk.
3. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship.
4. Theresa May will lose the vote on EU Withdrawal deal.
5. Attempts to force a second 'public' vote will fail.
6. We will leave the EU on a managed no-deal basis
7. Theresa May will resign and Dominic Raab will become Prime Minister after we have left the EU.
8. The Labour Party will split after we leave the EU and there will be a new centrist party.
9. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 35%, Labour at 23%, A new centrist party 24%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 1%. 
10. UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 
11. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 

Squiffy.

The options after the defeat on Tuesday

I have been thinking about the options facing the UK after Theresa May's inevitable defeat on the vote on Tuesday. There's lots of pages in the press in the options facing us so let's take a look.

Confidence Vote
The DUP have said they will vote for the Government in the event of a confidence vote. The Tories will not vote to let in Corbyn so it is extremely unlikely that this event will happen.

General Election
This option is if Prime Minister decides on a General Election. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for it. I don't think the Prime Minister will go for this, especially after the last one wiped out her majority.

Theresa Resigns
I think this is quite highly likely. She has so far been very resilient, but I have a hunch that she just wants to get to this vote and to say that she tried her best. Maybe not.

Vote of Confidence in Theresa
This would happen if 48 letters go into the Graham Brady as the chairman of the 1922 committee. I think that this is guaranteed if she doesn't resign of her own accord. I think she will then lose, or not win by enough to stay on.

Small Renegotiation
Theresa May somehow clings on and tries to get something small as a concession by the EU. I honestly don't think she will be able to get anything big enough to get a second vote passed.

Delay
So far Theresa May has shown she likes to kick the can down the road. If she does try to delay I reckon the 48 letters will go in. I'm not sure the EU will be happy too.

Big Renegotation
She rips up the plan and starts again? No way. It would have to be under a new PM. Will the EU show any ankle? No way too.

Parliament Tries to Pivot to Norway
There is a mood amongst some remainers to pivot to Norway. Norway gives access to the single market for a fee. It also requires freedom of movement. The one thing it doesn't do is solve the perceived Northern Irish border problem, so it would have to be Norway+, i.e. be in the single market and the custom union.

This, some think, could command a majority in the House of Commons. I'm not sure. This will not satisfy any of Theresa May's red lines, or the aims of the vote. No trade deals, no stopping of freedom of movement, and still paying for being in the single market. It will also stop Corbyn from doing state aid and some of the other protectionist schemes he wants. I would think Labour in the main would go against. It still doesn't satisfy their six tests (although nothing will).

I think it is unlikely.

People's Vote
This will do it's best to get off the line. There will be lots of people against a second referendum, but let's say there is a majority for some kind of referendum. The next question is what will be on the vote. Remain/May's deal, Remain/No deal, Remain/Renegotiate, Remain/May's Deal/No Deal. If it's a three way there would have to be some kind of AV, otherwise there would be accusations of trying to blatantly scupper Brexit. Can you imagine one of those getting a majority out of those that want a referendum? I can't.

But let's say there is some kind of agreement, and it becomes Remain/No deal. The remainers think that the crap negotiation will swing some 2016 leavers in to remain, and it is likely for a small group. There will also be some more youthful voters eligible. There will also be some people who wanted to vote leave last time but were scared by project fear, and now see that nothing bad really happened, so will vote leave. There will also be people who voted remain but see the second vote as an affront to democracy and will vote leave to send a strong message to the Government to listen to the first vote.

The one thing that isn't mentioned in the press is that last time the Government were very pro-Remain. Before the campaigns started the Government spent £9m of taxpayer money on a pamphlet for every house asking to vote remain. What would the Government do this time? This is the Government that said 'Brexit means Brexit'. They could not be pro-Remain this time. Corbyn will still be as luke warm. I think the likelihood is that there would be a bigger vote for leave this time.

Which takes us where?

Managed No Deal
I think when a few of the other options have been tried, we will get to a managed no deal. Small deals to keep the lights on, beneficial to us and the EU. And then we leave.

Squiffy.

F1 2018 is over

The Formula 1 season is over. Lewis Hamilton is champion as are Mercedes again. It's all too easy to think it was another walk in the park for the Mercedes crew but the statistics hide what was a closely fought battle.

At the beginning of the season the Mercedes seemed to have another 'diva' on its hands and Hamilton was not able to extract the maximum. It's been a pattern of the last few years that at the start of the season Hamilton and his team-mate (be it Bottas or Rosberg) are closely matched with Hamilton having the odd weekend where he can't unlock the speed. As the season rolls on he gets more comfortable in the car and then can unlock its potential, he then tends to leave his rivals for dust. This year was no different.As usual, from mid-season Hamilton was riding the peaks.

For much of the season the Ferrari was the fastest car. Vettel was able to take some impressive wins and the title battle was see-sawing between Vettel and Hamilton. For around three races in the second half of the year Ferrari went into a development cul-de-sac and actually made their car slower.  They then reversed the changes and were fastest again. Overall I would say the Ferrari was just a touch faster.

What made the difference? I think it was the drivers. Hamilton has made only a couple of minor errors this year, such as in qualifying in Russia. None of them have made a huge impact. On the other hand Vettel has made six or seven rather large errors which have severely hampered him. I believe if Hamilton had been driving for Ferrari this year then he would still have been World Champion and Ferrari would be celebrating their first for a decade.

Hamilton has been at the top of his game this year, driving better than ever. I think he is right up there with the best. In fact I would now say he's above Schumacher. Not just because the statistics are close, but because of the manner of his winning. He is fair, and he has a team-mate who does not have to be subservient. Schumacher was outright number one in the team and very early in the seasons his team mate would have to pull over for him (e.g. Austria 2002). Bottas let Hamilton through last year in Hungary to try to gain a place, but Hamilton let him back in front later. This year in Russia Bottas let Hamilton through, but at that time it was clear that Bottas was not going to win the championship. There are none of the controversies for Hamilton of Schumachers taking out Hill in 94, Villeneuve in 97 or parking it at Rascasse in Monaco 06.

Hamilton's team mate, Valterri Bottas started well but was really outclassed at the end of the season and really needs to improve next year for him to stop Ocon taking his seat for 2020.

As for Vettel, he needs to cut down the mistakes. That's two years running that his title campaign has been sent awry by big mistakes (Singapore 2017, Germany 2018). I think the pressure of Ferrari gets to him. I think he is going to find it very hard next year with Leclerc at his heels. In fact I think there will be fireworks, and maybe Leclerc will get the better of Vettel (like Ricciardo did in 2014).

For now Alonso is out of F1. A career marked by brilliance in the car and petulance out of it. What could have been? If he'd made different choices at times in his life Alonso could be a seven time World Champ. He may come back, maybe Ferrari in 2020?

For now we can rest on Sundays before it all starts up again next year. The cars will have a few simplified wings, which can only be a good thing. If I had my way they would look simpler still. Roll on 2019.

Squiffy.

Against

I've now fully decided on the EU. The deal which I hate must be voted down. Although I hated the backstop, I hoped the EU would be ok with it and not try to control the UK using it.

Emmanuel Macron has let the cat out of the bag. He said that he would force the UK into the backstop and keep us there until we agreed to let French fisherman have all their rights to UK fishing grounds.

Spain raised similar views on the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

Although EU countries don't have a veto on the withdrawal deal, they do on the trade deal which follows. It is clear they will push us into the backstop and keep us there. That is simply not acceptable and hoping for the EU to be nice to us is not going to cut it.

What will happen? No-one knows. Here's what I hope...

1) The vote goes down
2) Theresa May resigns
3) Labour tries to force a general election and fails
4) The People's Vote lot try to get that through and fail
5) The Tories elect a full-on brexiteer
6) The new leader stops the £39Bn payment.
7) The new leader agrees with the EU for small facilitating deals, for small payments to the EU. These would be deals like keeping the planes flying etc. The payment will be < £1Bn per annum.
8) Parliament feels unable to vote down these small deals.
9) We leave on 29th March with as many as these small deals in place. Maybe with a small delay to the leave date.
10) We become independent.
11) Later, several years later, we approach the EU for a Free Trade Agreement on a par with Canada.

Let's hope...

Squiffy.

The Deal

I'm in conflict. The EU Withdrawal agreement is horrible. I hate it. Especially that the notorious backstop that can only be escaped with the agreement of the EU. It seems to be a serious loss of sovereignty. In fact there is so much to hate. I really don't want it and would rather have a no deal.

But.

I suspect that if it fails, there will be no Brexit and possibly the Government will fail. Is it worth this bad deal in the hope that the Prime Minister is ousted in favour of a Brexiteer once we get into the transition period? That new PM could get a better final deal?

The Government and PM have made such a hash of it. The only solace I know is that Corbyn and his lot would be worse. But it could have been so much better if we'd played hardball.

Oh how I wish it had played out so much better. I suspected Theresa May would make a bad PM and I've been proved right. If only we'd had a proper Brexiteer as PM. It looks like its probably too late to get the Brexit we want and deserve.

Such a shame!

I don't know what I want now.

Squiffy.

One more mistake could lead to an F1 surprise

I've been mulling a possible scenario which may lead to unexpected turn of events in F1 at the end of the season.

Ferrari has the fastest car, marginally faster than the Mercedes, but Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes lead the World Championships. The reason being that Sebastien Vettel has made four serious point scoring errors and is now thirty points behind his rival.

Vettel will now be under immense pressure to deliver the first Ferrari World Championship since 2007. It is apparent too that Vettel does not always handle pressure well and it drives him to make more mistakes. Hamilton now makes very few mistakes, his disastrous 2011 season is well behind him.

What if, with a decisive car advantage, Vettel is unable to cut out the mistakes and bring the championship home? The Italian press will be in revolt and pressing for a change. But it will be clear who is at fault. Could Vettel be sacked at the end of the season? It's not unusual for Ferrari to sack a multiple World Champion, they did it to Alain Prost at the end of 1991 after he criticised the car. This time the crime will be more serious by not capitalising on a great car.

If Ferrari were to fire their team lead - who could step forward? They'd need a proven race winner, ideally a champion driving at the top of his game, free of contract. Step forward a certain Mr Alonso. We know he left Ferrari under unhappy circumstances, but he did so at McLaren under worse conditions and went back.

A strange turn of events? Maybe, but with each mistake Vettel makes, I think it becomes more likely.

Squiffy.

Moving fast: A new way forward. PM for PM

It looks like Theresa May's Brexit deal is already dead.

I thought it may be the best way forward but now that more amendments have been added there's no way the EU will accept it without modification. It cannot now stand. Remainers and Leavers are both angry. There can now only be one way forward (for now at least).

Theresa May must be deposed. The time has come for Boris Johnson to do his duty, find his inner Geoffrey How and create a resignation speech that changes the leadership. I believe he is going to make the resignation speech today. He needs to inspire and call for a change of leadership. He needs to go as far as possible to make members of the Government think there can be a better way - without him as Prime Minister.

There needs to be a vote of confidence with certainty that Theresa May will lose and that there is an attractive, viable alternative. Which means someone from the cabinet will have to stand down at that vote of confidence in order to provide an alternative.

There's several available, but right now I have Penny Mordaunt in my mind. Someone who talks human but is a Brexiteer.

If this can be put forward to the party after a barnstorming speech by her which also inspires MPs, the membership will go for it - like they did with David Cameron.

She can then put in place the David Davis White Paper being tough with the EU.

She needs to go to the wire with the EU.

It then needs to be put to the House Of Commons with the stark choice of that plan or no plan. If it fails, the new PM should call an election on the single issue of the deal. As someone new, fresh and human talking to the people she will have a good chance of winning the Brexit votes and Tory votes.

The manifesto will be sacrosanct and MPs will be expected to stick to it or be de-selected in favour of a pro-deal Tory.

At the moment Tories are scared of a general election, for the sole reason that Theresa May is PM. Take her away and put someone more empathetic in her place with a firm plan and Jeremy Corbyn becomes eminently beatable.

At the moment I cannot see another way.

Squiffy.

Brexit deal thoughts

I've had a little time to mull over the Chequers Brexit deal. As a Brexiteer, I think the deal is pretty poor. It' s complex, bureaucratic and does not deliver Brexit. I can fully understand why David Davis resigned. I understand why many people are unhappy with it. I'm unhappy with it. Lots of Tory members are unhappy with it.

So should Theresa May be toppled? Should the deal be scrapped. For me it's a close call.

But...

I've come down on the side of keeping the PM and keeping the deal. Why, when it's crappy? Simple, maths.

I would like there to be a harder Brexit, but there is no way it can get through the House of Commons. This softer Brexit has a slim chance. If the EU can broadly agree with the plan then I think there would be immense pressure on MPs to agree it. If the EU cannot agree, and demands more concessions, then all bets are off. With Tory Eurosceptics likely to vote against it would be dependent on Labour votes - and some of the Labour MPs are pragmatic enough to realise that this may be the best they get.

Let's look to the future, when this deal has been agreed. The Tory party will continue it's long walk to a more Eurosceptic future. After this betrayal, I doubt a non-Eurosceptic Tory will be elected leader by the membership. Once, we're out of the EU future Tory Prime Ministers will be able to re-negotiate the deal and head towards a more independent Britain.

It is depressing that the hope of Brexit has not been realised at this stage and it will take much longer to achieve, but we are where we are, and the PM has badly handled the negotiations and so there is so little time to get an agreement.

My betting, though, is that we will either stay in the EU and then there will be a Tory revolution with a very Eurosceptic leader, or a  nine month extension to the Brexit timetable so that we leave at the end of 2019. If that happens then I expect the PM to be ousted.


Squiffy.

Sick of being labelled dumb?

An article in The Sunday Times today titled 'Brainy Brits come out for Brexit' echoed my own thoughts. A group of intellectuals from economists, lawyers, philosophers, historians and scientists have come together to counter the argument that Brexiteers are thick.

Lately I've been getting pig sick at the unrelenting bias in the media against those who voted for Brexit. Labelled as thick, idiotic, unthinking, misguided and worse, as racists - those who voted for Brexit are beginning to get very annoyed.

As I've said before on these pages, I voted Brexit because I don't believe that Britain should go in the same direction as a unified EU with a single army, government, currency and foreign policy. I don't believe the words spoken recently, that those aims are not the EU's. Those aims have been clear for decades. I wanted control back, and for the EU politicians to stop outvoting the UK at all manner of summit meetings - imposing second rate politicians such as Jean-Claude Juncker on us. I wanted to stop paying loads of money to finance inefficient French farmers and the corrupt common agriculural policy, and greedy Spanish fishermen trawling their nets through British waters while British fishermen go empty handed.

It wasn't about immigration for me, but sovereignty.

That means every morning when I wake up, switch on the Today programme, listen to the business section, I listen daily to the proclamations of doom by various businessmen brought on and cajoled into anti-brexit sentiment by the presenters.

When I watch question time or listen to any questions, I see three or four remainers out-numbering the single brexiteer.

When I watch any TV satirical comedy, the all jokes will be at the expense of dumb brexiteers or the brexiteers in the cabinet. If the EU has just shoved out a draft that Britain will be punished in negotiations, the comedians have a go at British MPs and negotiators for daring to go in with a demanding position. There is no opprobrium for the EU side creating the threats. If it's not that it's because 'we want all foreigners to go home'. I'm beginning to tire of it all...

Another comedy the other day, which has never approached politics in any way, suddenly had the two thickest characters saying that they'd voted Brexit. It makes you want to chuck something at the screen.

There is a deep bias in the media, which we all know about, for trying to obstruct Brexit, trying to make out that we didn't have a clue what we were voting for, that it was stupid to vote for Brexit, and only enlightened people voted to remain. It is demonstrated daily by the presenters, the choice of panellists and choices of news stories.

I am sick of it. Please treat us with respect, as we have to the remainers.

Squiffy.

Brexit lies

A lot has been said about the lies told in the referendum campaign. But since then there a whole load of things said in the generality which are patently untrue.

One that gets me is the 'No one voted to leave the single market'. Well all the main leaders of both Remain and Leave stated that a vote to leave the EU meant to leave the single market also.

Another one has popped up. 'No one voted to be poorer'. Well, the remain campaign was entirely focused on their preposition that a vote leave would make us all poorer, and yet despite these protestations of doom, we still voted Brexit. So, no, we put sovereignty and self-rule above the economy, i.e. we'd take being a little poorer for the right to Govern ourselves.

These things really annoy me!

Squiffy.

2017 is over. Here comes 2018

It's the end of another year, and as is now tradition I mark my predictions and make some new ones. In what is becoming a more unpredictable world, this is getting increasingly difficult!

So here's goes my pitiful efforts from last year.

1. Lewis Hamilton will regain the F1 World Championship    1 points.
2. Daniel Ricciardo will be second in the F1 World Championship and it will get tense with Max Verstappen who'll come third.    0 points.
3. Ferrari will fall further into disarray, with Vettel and Raikonnen leaving at the end of the year.    0 points.
4. Francois Fillon will beat Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French Presidency, Emmanuel Macron will be pipped in the previous round.     0 points.
5. Angela Merkel will remain German Chancellor.      1 points.
6. There will be another Eurozone crisis following Greece intransigence.      0 points.
7. Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March as predicted by the Prime Minister       1 points.
8. A rough outline of Brexit will be presented. Not a member of the Single Market, a free trade agreement on goods, no free movement of peoples and a sector-by-sector membership of the customs union (wheich we'll not get).     1 point.
9. The parties will stay roughly where they are in the polls, Tories 40%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 9%.      0 points.
10. 2 more Labour MPs will either defect or resign.      0 points.
11. In the Copeland By-Election Labour will narrowly beat the Tories, by less than 2000 votes. UKIP will be a distant third.      0 points.

I make that 4 points out of 10 which isn't very good. No one would have predicted a General Election last year along with the crumbling of the Theresa May's reputation and Jeremy Corbyn's revival. I did get the winner of the F1 World Championship but not the other places. Anyway, I'll make some more predictions for 2018...

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a fifth time.
2. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship, with Red Bull beating Ferrari to 2nd in the constuctor's Championship.
3. There will be disarray in Ferrari this year as their car is not as successful as the 2017 version.
4. There will not be a General Election in the UK in 2018.
5. There will be a quick agreement on a a Brexit transition deal and a final deal will be ready in October.
6. It will be a very difficult process and possible constitutional crisis trying to get the EU Withdrawal through the House Of Lords.
7. The Labour Party will have a little crisis over their position on Brexit with some resignations, and Corbyn will end the year less popular.
8. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 41%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 3%.
9. UKIP will file for bankruptcy.
10. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail.

Here's to another year.

Squiffy.

Brexit round-up

We're five months into the Brexit negotiations. Many people think it is not going well, but I think differently - in fact I think is is going as well as can be expected.

We all knew beforehand that the EU would make a big effort to extort as much money out of the UK as possible - so it's unsurprising that the EU is holding out as long as possible before trade talks begin. In fact these parts of the negotiations, I believe, will be the hard part and the trade negotiations should be easier. That's because we start from a position of already having free trade and so there must be an effort to increase tariffs from one side or the other.

I believe that if we're close to starting trade talks then we must have got over a lot of issues with some sticking points remaining. But they should not be too much of an obstacle to a successful deal.

What I don't like is the back-biting on the Tory benches, and the rubbish spoken by prize idiot Juncker and his MEP side kick Guy Verhofstadt. Each time they speak they want me to urge walking away without a deal. They make me so angry! I heard their state of the nation speech and the old views of a federal Europe. I just think thank God we're getting out in time. If the EU continues on that path it is sure to disintegrate.

Nick Clegg and others make me angry in another way, by saying things which are patently untrue (and I know the £350m a day was an exaggeration). Peter Mandelson, the other day, said that 'no-one had said leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market' - when he actually said just that in the referendum campaign. Cleggy is pushing for a different kind of Europe with differing levels of membership. If only the EU had agreed to this before the vote, when Cameron wanted a different settlement. It's too late now.

I think there will be a deal, and once there is, it will be very difficult for MPs to back away from it.

Squiffy.

Nearly number 4 for Lewis

It's getting to the end of the F1 season and in a few hours it is possible we will see Lewis Hamilton crowned World Champion for the fourth time. Though it is unlikely. The likelihood is that he will be World Champion next week unless Ferrari screw up again. He will deserve the championship.

At the beginning of the year he was having a little difficulty with the Mercedes W08. The car is fast but the tyres have to get into the right working temperature and at some places that has been difficult. The Mercedes is temperamental and not the overwhelming power of previous seasons. In many ways this years Ferrari has been a better car. It's a car for all seasons, been good at all circuits and in Vettel's hand's has been extremely quick. It's only failure has been in wet conditions.

Until a few races ago it looked like it could be either Vettel or Hamilton winning the world championship, and it still technically is, but it is now overwhelmingly Hamilton's to lose. Ferrari has partially imploded. Vettel made a second mistake (after Baku) in Singapore being too aggressive into the first corner, and then reliability gremlins raised their heads in the next two races. I thought reliability may become an issue for Ferrari but not to this extent.

The problem for Ferrari, now, is that it looks like the image of the pre-Jean Todt era. In which case failure is not an option, and heads roll, on a regular basis. No one feels safe and are expected to have immediate results. When Jean Todt and Ross Brawn took over Ferrari they kept the president Luca Di Montezemolo away from the team as far as possible and took failures as something they could all learn from and  improve. It took them 3 years to become the super force of the 2000-2006 era and there were plenty of failures and blow-ups but it came good.

I read that pre-1996 every morning all senior managers arrived to find a daily assortment of press clippings on their desks from the very critical Italian media. Not exactly bring the spirit of team harmony.

We now stand on the cusp of Lewis Hamilton's 4th World Championship. He had a difficult start to the season but has come back stronger and at the moment no one can really touch him. He is outstanding, especially in qualifying. He now holds the record for most pole positions, most first row starts. He still needs to win 30 more races to equal Schumacher's record which is a tall order, but if anyone can it's Hamilton. I believe he stands at the same level of greatness.

In actual fact slightly greater. Why? Because he has not insisted on having a number 2 driver. Rosberg was equal number 1. Also he has not been dirty on the track like Schumacher vs Hill in Adelaide 94, Villeneuve Jerez 97, and Alonso Monaco 2006. He lets his driving do the talking. FIrm but fair.

In a few hours we will know. Let's hope Austin is wet and a good race. I can wait until Mexico, in fact it may be better so that I can open some champagne.

Squiffy.

Down and nearly out

It's been a few weeks since the General Election. Now the dust has settled, the Government is in position with a deal with the DUP, and the Brexit negotiations have started. So how do I feel?

Depressed and resigned.

I'm unhappy to see how Theresa May has been treated. Yes, she ran a crap campaign. Yes, she avoided debate and yes she wasn't brilliant in the interviews. I was mystified before the election why Mrs May had sky high approval ratings, I'm now mystified by the entire country and press turning on her so completely. She increased the Tory vote by 6%, that's not failure in my book.

The contrast is with a jubilant Labour party and Jeremy Corbyn, who did have success in increasing the Labour vote by 10%. All those MPs who complained beforehand are now falling into line. They seem to think they won the election! It's just the maths that prove them wrong.

The Tories are still in power, able to negotiate Brexit.

So why depressed?

I'm depressed that 40% can vote for a wish list of undeliverable promises, paid for by taxes on companies (with no side effects). I'm depressed that 40% can vote for someone who has sided with every enemy of Britain: Hamas, IRA, Russia and Iran.

I'm heartened that even with a rubbish Tory campaign, a realistic manifesto but with no goodies, ann a good Labour campaign, Labour still could not win the election.

I fear the tide maybe turning. It looks like the lessons of history are about to be ignored, and we may take a leap into the socialist quagmire. Maybe I'm resigned to it. Maybe this is a fight that needs to be won every 40 years ago. Let them into power, let them make a great mess of everything, and then come along to fix it.

Unfortunately we've just done that. The Tories have tried to fix the issues for the last 7 years, pulling us out of a huge deficit and it looks like people's appetite for corrective surgery is at and end and they want to go on a spending spree again.

I'd like to see a Tory Government come in occasionally with benign circumstances, able to shape the country and not look like heartless bastards. But it never happens!

It is also depressing that the new Government seems to have no rudder with many ministers saying what they want. Philip Hammond specifically needs reigning in. It's time Theresa May put her kitten heel down and laid down the law. Even if threatened by her ministers. This cannot go on. It already has the feel of the 1992 Major Government.

I think Theresa May needs to stay until Brexit is complete and then hand over to David Davis, or one of the younger crowd. I'd like to see Dominic Raab get a big job, so that he may become a runner when the time comes.

Anyway, I need to lie down.

Squiffy.

Oh my. Britain makes a bad decision

In all my days, the British people have made the right decision at a General Election. This time they haven't.

The result looks like the Tories just shy of a majority, and Labour strengthened. This likely looks like Theresa May will have to resign, and Jeremy Corbyn will stay. That's the wrong way round.

Although the Tory campaign was woeful, I thought the British people would choose a proven pragmatist over an untried idealist.

I was wrong. Like some of the opinion polls. I'm going to stop giving predictions.

A hung parliament at this time, 11 days before the start of Brexit negotiations, leaves the country up in the air. Will Theresa May still be PM, or will there need to be a quick election? Will there have to be a new General Election?

It saddens me that so many of the population were seduced by the Corbyn spending and motherhood and apple pie, thinking that they wouldn't have to pay for it. It's so naive. Maybe letting Labour win and grind the country into the ground will wipe away the hopes of the ideologues, but we'll all suffer.

It will be interesting for the next few hours.

Squiffy.