Thank God for that

An election is on.

After three attempts to get an election via the dreadful Fixed Term Parliament Act failed, the workaround worked. Ironically, it was passed by 438 votes to 20 using a simple workaround bill. It needed 434 to pass via the FTPA! Corbyn's excuse of needing 'no deal' to be taken off the table seemed to work on Tuesday but not on Monday, even though the EU had granted the extension. The difference was that the SNP and Lib Dems had decided for an election and Labour couldn't be seen as the only party not wanting one!

Anyway, thank God that the parliament is nearly at an end. Hopefully we will get a new Tory Government with a reasonable majority to deliver Brexit. Woe betide us that we get any other result as it would either be a similar result to now, or even worse: a Corbyn Government. That would be dreadful. I can't imagine it, and so really hope it does not happen. My partner has already decided that we should leave the country if Corbyn becomes PM.

It will be a fascinating election.

Oh and to top it off, we also see the end of John Berk-ow as speaker. The pompous idiot has finally gone.

Brilliant.

Squiffy.

A very clever strategy?

I have been mulling for a few says why the EU is being so stupid as to wait for the MPs to do something before deciding whether to allow the UK to have an extension.

I don't think it is the EU, it is President Macron as has been widely reported.

Is it possible though that he is working in unison with Boris Johnson? He refuses to grant an extension unless something happens in Westminster and every day Boris Johnson puts down a motion asking for a General Election. It sound like a chicken and egg situation, and interminable delay - but there is a deadline of 31st October in only 6 days time.

All the MPs that have been bleating about 'taking no deal off the table' will be precisely the same MPs who are keeping no deal on that table. As the clock keeps ticking they are going to start to terrify themselves. Are they really going to wait until the day before Brexit day in the hope that Macron allows an extension besides what he has already said (admittedly via spokesmen)? I can imagine they really don't want to get the blame for no deal! Would that persuade them to allow an election in order to secure the extension?

Maybe I'm being hopeful that there is a coordinated strategy rather than just a three sided stand-off. We shall see shortly.

Squiffy.

Will anyone rid us of this troublesome Parliament?

Well my predictions for 19th October did not come to pass. For a start there was a deal.

That changed everything.

You'd think for the better, and many senses it is. The really good things are that there is a deal which most people can get behind. All the existing Tory MPs voted for it (unity practically unheard of in the modern Tory party). It's even beating all the other options in opinion polls. Most people just want it to be done, to let us move on.

So why am I so mad?

All the shenanigans. There was an EU council planned for October 17th and 18th, which is why the Benn act was planned to force the Government to send the extension on October 19th. The remainers in Parliament expected there to be no deal agreed at that EU council so it was an insurance policy to stop us leaving without a deal on 31st October.

But BoJo got the deal. And it looked like it would pass the meaningful vote. That scared the remainers again as their Benn act didn't cope with that scenario. The useful idiot Oliver Letwin put down an amendment which turned the 'meaningful vote' (that vote was demanded by remainers a few years earlier) into a meaningless vote! The amendment turn the vote on its head, to actually withhold approval! The Saturday sitting of parliament and all its expense was made useless. Good one!

The letters to the EU were sent. BoJo didn't have a great plan, but I don't think that was the point. It was to make the EU believe there was a plan so that they would concede more in the negotiations.

Still the October 31st deadline was possible. The next attempt at a meaningful vote was stopped by the puffed up ball of self importance known as Speaker Bercow. It was then down to the Withdrawal Bill the day afterwards.

Amazingly, it passed! The first time any deal has passed a voting stage in the Commons. Hurrah! But woe betide us mere mortals for thinking that finally Brexit might have a chance to complete.

In order to meet the timescale between 19th October (Benn Act) and 31st October (EU deadline) it left a short window in which to debate the bill and so needed a Programme motion to speed up the bill. That failed as the remainers decided it needed more time for them to discuss how quickly they would decide to vote down the bill. If anyone is under the impression that there was a genuine need for more days then just think how many people are likely to change their minds. None: all the MPs are so entrenched in their positions and have been for a long time. They just need time to vote on the various wrecking amendments tabled against the bill.

The standard practice is to pause a bill if the timetabling motion fails (as did the Lords reform bill did in 2011), which is what the Government did pending the news of the extension from the EU.

It is now clear that this Parliament will do absolutely nothing. It will delay everything. If the Withdrawal bill went ahead without a timetable it will be forever under debate and it will get stuck in the Lords and be susceptible to ping pong. It will be delayed and delayed.

The PM knew this and so said that we need a General Election. We do. We desperately need an election. But he would allow the Bill to go ahead for a short time before the dissolution for a General Election. The opposition had said the Bill needed more time, they also said that once the extension had been agreed that they would agree an election.

The EU have said they will wait for what is going on the UK before deciding how long the extension will be. The opposition are deciding how to respond to the election call by what happens with the extension. It is a chicken and egg situation. It is so crazy!

This is where we are.

What has made me so angry is the constant moving of goalposts by the remainers. They said we needed a deal, Boris got a deal. They said they needed a 'meaningful vote' but then made it meaningless. They forced there to be an extension letter sent to the EU under any circumstance. Corbyn had said he'd allow an election to be called once the Benn act had been passed into law then didn't. He then said he'd allow an election when the Benn act has Royal Assent, and then didn't. The most recent offer was that he'd go for an election once the EU has granted an extension until 31st Jan, which could be on Monday.

Today he moved that goalpost again. There now, it appears, to be a further requirement that the Withdrawal Bill needs to take no deal off the table in the future. What is the point? He won't vote for that Bill anyway. And if the Government did change the Bill and there was an election before Christmas it could be changed afterwards. It is preposterous and another phoney reason to not agree to an election.

This Parliament is completely rotten. It has ceased to be useful. The remainers are being completely despicable. Boris is trying to work around their shenanigans in order to enact the result of the 2016 referendum but by doing so they just accuse him of being untrustworthy. Well, how is saying you will do something repeatedly (like accept an election) and then not doing it a demonstration of trust? It isn't. The remainers keep saying BoJo is untrustworthy to excuse their actual untrustworthy actions. And don't cite the 31st October 'Do or Die' Boris quote as evidence of Boris lying, it was his absolute intention and he tried everything to do it but the remainers put obstacle after obstacle in his way.

I don't have a clue how this will end. Maybe the Queen needs to take control and call an election, she'd have the people backing her! Maybe Boris needs to bite the bullet and do a one line bill and hope the amendments aren't too bad.

One thing is that I'm close to going on a march myself. I'm so fed up. I've never been one to protest, I think it is pretty pointless, but I feel the most politically impotent in my life. I do fear that the anger against this Parliament is building up to a huge level. MPs are beginning to play with fire and lets hope this boil is lanced soon.

Squiffy. 

October 19th is key

Phew. It's been a few mad weeks.in politics. SO24 has been triggered and a bill to force the PM to ask the EU for an extension has been enacted. BoJo asked twice for a general election, but the opposition parties refused. Proroguing parliament has been an issue and is now going to the Supreme court.

It's been a crazy time.

It looks like the remainers have got BoJo over a barrel and he is toast. So why does he look reasonably chipper? Apparently Dominic Cummings has a plan, whatever that is.

Here is my hunch of what will happen.

The EU negotiations will continue but it's unlikely anything will come to it. On October 14th when parliament returns there will be a Queen's speech which will then have a debate and vote. On October 17th and 18th there is an EU council, at which Boris will refuse to ask for an extension. This will cause consternation as everyone will think he is breaking the law, but he and the government will resign just before the expiry of the window on 19th October, so just excuse themselves from breaking the law.

The Queen will ask Corbyn to form a Government, but will he be able to? Could the law actually apply to Corbyn with him racing to get a letter to the EU to ask for an extension. Afterwards any Corbyn Government will be voted out in a vote of no confidence. There will then be 14 days to try to find any Government. The likelihood is that there then be an election, taking us beyond 31st October.

If the extension hasn't been asked for, would we be out by default. Otherwise we have an extension, with Boris probably back as PM afterwards with a mandate at the end of the next extension.

We will then leave.

It is so difficult to predict what will happen. We live in the most unpredictable of times.

Squiffy.

A Government of National Unity?

At the moment there is a right who-ha about what happens if Boris Johnson refuses to resign to allow a Government of National Unity to take over following a loss of a confidence vote when parliament resumes on 3rd September.

There are quite a lot of hurdles which have to be jumped before we get to that point. Firstly, would Corbyn actually table a vote of confidence? I suspect that he will delay as much as possible. His argument before parliament broke up was that it could actually strengthen Boris. I'm not sure what is likely to change in the next month or so - apart from being closer to the Halloween deadline. Also, I think Corbyn wants the Tories to go through a no deal Brexit in the hope that it is a disaster and then Corbyn can then do a confidence vote and swoop in as a saviour!

Let's assume he does table a confidence vote. Will he win it? Everyone thinks the Tories have a majority of 1, but in fact it is actually more when you count the non voting speakers and non-whipped Tories such as Charlie Elphicke. Then add in the fact that it is suicide for any Tories who vote against, a sure fire whip removal, and then loss of seat at the election. It is then possible for some ex-Labour MPs not enamoured with Corbyn but who are not standing again to back the PM (maybe Frank Field & Kate Hoey).

Let us now assume that Boris loses. The fixed term parliament act only needs Boris to resign if there is an alternative viable Government. Boris could try to span it out to try to put together another Government and go for another vote after fourteen days.

Then what would be this viable Government of National Unity be? Boris Johnson would still be leader of the Tory party and so any Tories joining the Government would most likely be de-selected and lose the whip. It would only be a small number of Tories, but then it would need all the Lib Dems, all the independents and nearly all of the Labour party to join. Do you think Corbyn and his cronies would back a remainer Tory or Blairite Labour MP? No chance, and the other independents won't support Corbyn. I honestly can't see them cobbling together the numbers.

So many hoops have to be jumped through before we get to the point at which Boris needs to resign. If he doesn't there may be court case to push him out, it will all be wasting time until such point as he resigns and then calls an election for after Halloween.

There could be some more shenanigans by remainers using every technique to stop Boris going through what the law already says, but Boris will stick to the rule of law - I'm sure. So who is being casual with parliament? The one sticking by the votes, elections, and referendums, or those that are using every tactic to deny the result of the referendum?

 Squiffy.

BoJo MoJo

It's been just over a week since Boris Johnson was elected to be leader of the Conservative Party and  hence the Prime Minister. I voted for him with a little trepidation, but so far I have been extremely happy with how things are going.

He hit the ground running and had his cabinet in place extremely quickly. I'm really happy with the cabinet apart from the sacking of Penny Mordaunt - who I rate highly. I would have kept her in place, but I'm happy with the rest of the choices. It needed to have a top heavy pro-Brexit bias so there is no chance of resignations destabilising the Government at a later date, when it gets sticky.

The appointment which sticks out though is obviously Dominic Cummings. The man who ran the Vote Leave campaign has shown he can run a strategy to success and that is what is needed now. In many ways it is the take over of Government by the Vote Leave operation. It feels like it should have been done three years ago, but better late than never.

The Brexit strategy has been spot on since then. Prepare for no-deal and say to the EU "come back to us when you are ready to re-open the withdrawal agreement, otherwise we leave on 31st Oct". I've been impressed by the unified appearance of the cabinet, especially after the leaky divided May cabinet. The new Prime Minister hasn't really put a foot wrong yet, surprisingly. It's a breath of fresh air. The May Government was so depressing, nothing was being done, it now seems like we have an active Government again.

I think the EU will come back with something when they realise that the UK is serious about leaving without a deal. But I feel their offer will not be enough and we will have to leave anyway. But whether our parliament and the speaker finds a ruse to somehow force us not to leave is still open. The period just after parliament comes back is key. But again the Government is impressive, they say "if MPs find archaic ways to try to stop Brexit, then the Government will play the game likewise".

The next few months are going to be absolutely fascinating, but I think it's now a 60% chance we will leave on October 31st. It's also possible there be a snap election. This is probably going to be the most interesting three months in politics in my lifetime.

Squiffy.

Hard Labour

The Labour party is a disgrace. Never mind the 1970's policies. It's the anti-semitism row. It has been rumbling on ever since Corbyn became leader. Why? Because the far left that Corbyn represents has a world view that believes that Jews run the world with money and influence. It's almost like David Icke's view that the world is run by 10 foot lizards! Absolutely crazy.

They have always had this view. What is so disappointing is the number of sane middle of the road Labour MPs, who regularly tweet and complain but do nothing else. They still say they want Corbyn to be Prime Minister where they don't share the world view, and know that this problem his due to Corbyn and his ardent followers.

My message to them is this:

DO SOMETHING.

It's all being done in your name, you are complicit. Split. Form a party within a party. Don't allow it to go on. Don't just tweet.

Squiffy.

Johnson vs Hunt

I don't get much to time to blog these days but I wanted to comment on the Tory leadership race which is almost over. If it had been my choice I would have wanted a Johnson vs Gove final and then it would have been easy for me to choose Michael Gove (as I do have a vote).

Alas it wasn't to be, and so it has been Johnson vs Hunt. I have been completely torn on which way to vote. In normal times it would be a simple choice and I would go for Jeremy Hunt. Why? Because I think Boris Johnson is extremely risky. It's not quite clear to know what his general views are, he has a very tricky past, and is very polarising. On the other hand Jeremy Hunt is affable, quietly capable, and could run a good managerial government.

These are not normal times. We need to achieve Brext. Democracy is at stake. The party system that is relatively stable is at risk of breaking down, which could lead to the worst thing of all. An inadvertent Corbyn government.

In some senses I can equate this to World War II. Theresa May is Neville Chamberlain, she brought back her paper but it was worthless. Which means that Jeremy Hunt is Lord Halifax and Boris Johnson is Winston Churchill. A maverick. So it is with some reticence that I think I will put my cross next to the Johnson name. This could be a disaster or the breakthrough we need. I certainly think we need the optimism that Johnson can bring.

Here's hoping.

Squiffy.

Holding back the tears. The end of May.

Yesterday the Prime Minister, Theresa May, resigned. It was not unexpected and had been on the cards at any time over the last three months. Her options had closed and she had finally lost the support of the cabinet. Although I'm glad to see her premiership over, it's always sad to see someone on the steps of Downing Street give up the job they love and when she broke down it did bring a tear to my eye.

I have no animosity to her but it was clear very early on (as I suspected before she got the job) that she was not equipped with the talents necessary for the job - and her disastrous election campaign showed exactly why. A shame.

On Thursday we had the EU elections, elections which we should not have been having, another symbol of her failure as PM. It is the only time I have gone into a voting booth not knowing who to vote for. I am a Tory but although I really wanted Dan Hannan to be re-elected as the MEP for our area I also really wanted to register my protest at the lack of will of parliament to deliver on the Brexit referendum.

My pencil hovered.

And then I did something I couldn't have imagined a year or so ago. I voted for Nigel Farage's party. Not for him, but for the simple message that we should be out of the EU by now. I want the Brexit party to have such a high vote that all those pushing for a second referendum realise that the leave vote is still there and in large numbers. Angry and ashamed of our parliament.

When the Tory party leadership election has concluded and there is a genuine Brexiteer in command I will return to my previous voting ways I am sure.

And now to the election itself.

I think there is only one strategy that can deliver Brexit. The candidate has to have a strategy mapped out. He or she needs to say:

When I am elected I will deliver Brexit. No ifs or buts. I am absolutely prepared to leave without a deal. I will contact the EU on my election in order to put in place the necessary deals to mitigate some of the effects of no deal so it can be as smooth as possible. If the EU wish to come to me and make an offer to change the Withdrawal agreement then I will consider it, but it won't delay us past the end of the year delivering Brexit. We leave on 31st October if they do not. 

Boris Johnson is the front runner but front runners in the Tory party hardly ever win. I have serious reservations about a BoJo premiership. He is now as divisive as other candidates. He was a rubbish foreign secretary. I don't trust him.

Matthew Parris and other remainers are tacking to BoJo as someone who can tack away from a difficult Brexit. That's also why I don't want him as PM.

I would much prefer someone serious like Dominic Raab, though I would hope his other policies aren't as simple as 1p off income tax. We need reform, of the type Michael Gove can provide. Unfortunately Gove has probably killed of his premiership by staying in as a cabinet member and selling May's deal.

One Cabinet Member that might just get away with it, that I really like, is Penny Mordaunt. She is human and a Brexiteer and can make fab speeches. Although she stayed in cabinet I did not hear her speak up for the deal and that may benefit her. If she has the opportunity to make a big public speech to the membership then I really hope she can nail it like David Cameron did in 2005.

Once we have a new leader I would hope that the polls quickly change and the Brexit party support can back the new PM. With Labour splintered the new PM should go for a quick election with a simple Brexit message in order to get a mandate to take us out whatever. If the polls don't change then we have a problem. Whatever, Corbyn cannot be allowed in, but without delivering Brexit it's a real chance.

So, at this stage, I hope PM for PM.

Squiffy.

May's deal is dead. Her premiership is over.

This morning Jeremy Corbyn pulled out of the Brexit talks, this followed Theresa May's meeting with the 1922 backbench committee. There is no compromise deal and it seems now inevitable that she will have to resign in a couple of weeks.

The Prime Minister will bring her deal back in the week beginning 3rd June, but this time as a bill rather than a motion. This is her last throw of the dice, and she has said she will go whatever the result. Though in order to get rid of her as quickly as possible pretty much guarantees that it will be voted down (even though there was a cat in hell's chance of it passing).

I wish she'd go now and as soon as possible, but I guess we can wait for another few weeks - it seems like we've been waiting for ever!

There now appears to be around twenty candidates for the leadership campaign when it starts, I hope that the vast number of candidates does not mean that it will be too long a campaign and they can whittle it down to the last two quickly. I want a new leader to be in place by mid to late July.

I though May would be a bad leader but she has been even worse than I imagined. I'll vote for the Brexit party in the EU elections and revert to Tory for any new General Election that I hope any new leader will call.

Squiffy.

Betrayal?

Yesterday there was a Cabinet meeting which lasted seven and a half hours. After which Theresa May made a podium speech where she opened the door to talks with Jeremy Corbyn whilst firmly shutting the door on a no-deal.

I have been angry since.

Now it is possible that this is a genius solution. They offer talks to Corbyn, he comes up with something which she can't agree to because it is lunacy and then he refuses to continue. We then drop through to no-deal forced on us by the EU. Thereby damaging the EU and Labour in the process. Genius right? Yes, but so unlikely. Do we really believe the PM has a really good tactical brain? No. She has made so many bad decisions that we can only believe that this is another one!

She has now thrown her party under the bus along with Brexit. Betrayal is a hard word, and with her current deal I would never had said it. A bad deal but basically achieving most of the Leave campaign. But Corbyn wants a customs union, which would betray one of the three pillars of the Leave campaign. It is betrayal.

We would end up in a position where our trade policy would be made in Brussels without our say so. Even less power than now and we would not be able to make our own trade deals. We are the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world and we cannot allow our trade policy to be determined elsewhere. It is ludicrous.

I cannot believe the cabinet has gone a long with this. There should be many resignations. The PM should resign immediately. I am so disappointed in Michael Gove, a talented secretary of state and leader of the Leave campaign. How could he countenance this?

None of this cabinet can be allowed to replace the leader of the remnants of the Tory party when this is over.

I will keep my membership until the next leader is announced, and depending on their policy I shall decide on whether to keep it.

Squiffy.

The Endgame?

The last few weeks have been very tumultuous in British politics. Theresa May's meaningful votes on her Brexit deal have failed twice. Other plans to leave via motions attached to the votes have not passed, but a 'no deal' motion did pass though this is non binding.

Over the last few days the PM has been to an EU summit and got a extension to the Brexit leave date, moved from March 29th to May 22nd if we pass a third meaningful vote or April 12th if we wish to participate in the next EU elections on account of needing a longer delay.

The PM also made a very bad speech to the country, in which she accused MPs of ignoring their constituents and that most people wanted to get on with Brexit. She was correct to say that most people want it over with but the tone was bad.

The Tory party is ripping itself apart. The Labour party has so many positions that it wouldn't look out of place in the Karma Sutra. No-one has a clue what will happen next.

There will be another meaningful vote in the next week, and probably some indicative votes to see if we need to go for a longer extension. I think that nothing will get a majority. Where will we go from there? Who knows.

It appears that Theresa May has moved slightly to favouring a no deal if her deal cannot pass, but it might be taken out of her hands! She has also enraged so many of her party colleagues that her premiership is hanging by a thread.

I'm of the opinion now that maybe her terrible deal is the best that can be hoped for, that parliament will not allow us to leave the EU if her deal goes down. Although I would prefer no deal, I suspect it won't happen by design only by accident and I'd rather have more certainty. But then again it's unlikely that deal will pass.

These are the strangest of times.

Squiffy.

More Leave Than Ever

It is now fewer than 60 days until we are supposed to leave the EU. I would like to reflect on everything that has happened since that day on 23rd June 2016.

I was pretty happy on the morning of 24th June. I had not always wanted to to leave the EU, but after the disaster of the Euro and how they had handled the financial crises of 2008, I had come to the conclusion that this organisation was no longer fit for purpose. And so I was happy: we were going to leave. We had been told that the referendum results would be respected.

I knew that the £350 million claim on the side of a bus was exaggerated (more like £250 million), and that Turkey was not close to joining. They had not been a factor in my choice to leave. Now though, the lies of the Remain side were exposed. There was a drop in the pound, but there was no emergency budget or major job losses. There was no economic pandemonium as predicted. Project Fear had not been correct. More on that later.

There was political pandemonium however. David Cameron had resigned, which I was sad about, I had liked him as Prime Minister. He fitted the part and had the emotional intelligence required for the role. I did not want Boris Johnson as PM and rather favoured Michael Gove as an intelligent man with radical ideas and very good at explaining himself. Unfortunately, Theresa May got the premiership by everyone else taking themselves out.

She was immediately popular and I could not understand why. She had survived as Home Secretary for 6 years which is a great feat for the most difficult office of state. But she had done that by keeping her head down. You can't do that as Prime Minister. In my mind she had been impressive once, when telling the party that they were described as the nasty party back in a party conference years ago. I could not expect her to carry the public with her for long because of that lack of emotional intelligence. It would be found out soon.

The Prime Minister did say the right things, however, about the direction of Brexit. She wanted to respect the results and go for a free trade agreement while leaving. No longer in the customs union or single market. This was what had been promised in the leave campaign and by the leaders of the remain campaign. She did make a few mistakes though. Her speech of  'people of somewhere vs people of nowhere' rubbed some up the wrong way.

While the Prime Minister was formulating how to proceed, the losers of the referendum started trying to find ways to frustrate the way. First was Gina Miller making it necessary for Parliament to agree to Article 50 to be passed rather than the Prime Minister. Although this was a pretty good idea it made it so that the Government was wrapped up in this supreme court case rather than creating a good view of the process. The Government should have accepted that the UK parliament should have a vote quickly without fighting.

Instead the Government should have started preparations for no deal. Six months to a year of intense planning and legislation should have been prepared. All the while this would be a contingency. The Government should also have been forming a settled view on what they wanted for a future partnership. The Prime Minister made an impressive speech at Lancaster House. It was what I had wanted.

She need to steel herself to fight against the EU plan for a two stage process, withdrawal then trade talks. This needed to be rejected outright. The Irish border would make a catch 22 situation out of these two stages. There was no way the withdrawal could be completed without a settled view on the border for the ending trade deal.

Unfortunately, agreeing to the two stage process has brought us to where we are today. There would be a further major mistake along the way to make everything so much harder.

And then we had the General Election. Theresa May was exposed as the deeply unimpressive campaigner. The 'Maybot' was coined. Her popularity plummeted and Corbyn's improved. What a disaster. The very reason why I had not wanted Theresa May as Prime Minister in the first place was now the general view. She could never fight another election as Prime Minister. We now had a Government dependent on the DUP and much harder numbers for parliamentarians to get a majority. Again, what a disaster!

We had triggered Article 50 and the date set for March 29th 2019 for our exit earlier in April, but due to the stupid EU rules the clock was now ticking, and we did nothing visible really apart from fight a pointless general election. 

After the election, we engaged in talks. During that time the forces of remain had started to gather again and it looked like not much progress was being made. In October the Prime Minister had her disastrous coughing fit at conference, and I could not watch. It wasn't her fault, but it did signify everything that was happening.  

It was at this time that it felt like the talks were going awry. The Irish border was becoming a problem. In December the Prime Minister was desperate for a signal that the deal was getting closer and so there was some artificial milestone for which she got some agreement. But, it had a bad form of words around the border and this was damning. The Prime Minister told her colleagues it was just a form of words and not sacrosanct. In fact this was the time that the 'Backstop' came about. David Davis, our Brexit secretary, had been blind sided as the PMs adviser Olly Robbins had taken over the negotiations. It was definitely going the wrong way.

But it was some kind of agreement. They had decided on £39Bn payment and some more on the way forward including a transition agreement. But it wasn't the end of the first step, withdrawal, it was just the beginning. How depressing.

The remainers continued to gather.

2018 continued along with the EU saying 'we don't know what the UK want'. They did, the Lancaster house speech specified the direction. A further Florence speech had re-iterated the way. But the Government did not have a settled view on how close to the EU we would be. Would our rules mirror the EU's, or would we go our own way? The lack of a decided view kept popping out into the open, with Government ministers speaking against each other. Philip Hammond vs Boris Johnson epitomised this conflict. The Chancellor wanted to stay in the customs union. The Foreign Secretary wanted a free trade agreement but with good alignment, so called Canada+++. After all we started from a position of being fully aligned. The speeches of the Prime Minster had set the path for Canada+++.

Then the bombshell. While the Brexit department had been planning for a Canada+++ kind of arrangement, Olly Robbins acting on behalf of the PM had prepared a much closer relationship with close alignment. The Chequers agreement was unveiled. The Government secretaries had not had much of a view on this, it was being done behind the scenes by civil servants.

The Brexit secretary and Foreign secretary resigned, as did many other ministers. Theresa May had lost the trust of many and ripped up her previous speeches. It was disgraceful. The Tory European Research Group (ERG) were outraged. The Prime Minister had lost them.

And the backstop.

The backstop had emerged from the text from those seeds in December. It would continue to be argued and negotiated by the new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, but he also didn't realise that he was just the face of Brexit and it was still Olly Robbins behind the scenes.

We were getting close to the withdrawal agreement emerging in full. The remainers had started a second referendum campaign, the so called 'People's Vote'. The first vote only having included the undead, animals and racists. Under the guise of  'we must be able to vote on the deal' this was just another way to undo the original referendum. If it wasn't then why would 'Remain' still be an option, and why is it only remainers who want a so called 'People's vote', who then say if it were to happen they'd vote remain, i.e. nothing to do with the deal.

The Withdrawal Agreement was agreed. The Backstop came fully into the open as a mechanism we may drop into as a customs union but with no exit clause. It was the worst aspect of the EU. Trying to trap us whilst saying they weren't. How could our Government agree to this constitutional hell? 

The Brexit secretary again resigned as did many other ministers. This was truly dire.

Some remainers were now pushing a 'Norway for now' deal'. A kind of stop gap on the way to a Canada+++ deal. A way to stay in the single market. This would evolve into a Norway+ deal, the plus being for the Customs Union - as a way to solve the Irish border problem. This really is awful, it is essential EU-. We would have the single market and customs union without any voting rights. So much worse than now. This would be rebranded again into Common Market 2.0. An abomination of a solution that should never have been born. The one thing that they didn't really explain, was that the Withdrawal Agreement would still have to be agreed to anyway.

So to the votes. It was clear there was no chance of it being passed. The Tories were largely split. The Labour party would not agree to anything. Their own position as clear as a muddy field. Corbyn wants the Tories to take the blame and then come in as PM through a General Election. He desperately doesn't want the 'People's vote' as many of his backbenchers do. In that case he would have to come down on one side of Remain and Leave again, and he'd not done it well the first time. He would continue to obfuscate.

Half way through the debate the PM decided to pause the process. What for, who knows? But now the ERG were completely up in arms and submitted their letters of no confidence, which she won and would now be safe for a year. It was high drama. But the clock was still ticking.

Christmas came and went. 2019 and three months left. The calls in parliament by remainers now is that 'no-deal must be taken off the table'. What? How does that work? You cannot legislate that one side of a negotiation has to agree no matter what. So that's not the reason - it's so that we remain in the EU. Of course it is.

Project Fear 2.0 is around again. Mars bars won't be in Britain, we won't have lettuces, tomatoes, medicines, water. Britain will be a massive car park. The scare mongering hasn't worked time and time again, why does anyone think we'll buy this bunkum again. Yesterday the BBC said a survey had announced a third of UK businesses would move operations abroad in the event of no deal. Not big business alone, all businesses. Now only 6% of UK businesses export to the EU. 85% of UK businesses are completely internal, but of course all those hairdressers down the high street will up sticks and move to Germany because of Brexit. They take us for fools.

The vote started again with no reason for the pause. She lost big time, 230 votes down. A calamity. What now?

The media panels are infuriating. The referendum was won 52% leave, but since the referendum 70% of panellists on Question Time have been those who voted remain. On any Question Time panel there is one who favours leave, a Corbynite who voted remain and who can't give any straight answers but that we can't leave on no deal, a remainer who wants Common Market 2,0 (i.e. EU-) or a People's vote where they would vote to remain and some comedian who thinks that all leavers are racists. Oh and a Government minister who voted to remain but now, through gritted teeth, thinks we should leave with this horrible plan. It is so biased.

There's been a series of votes in parliament as the EU is still saying 'We don't know what you want'. A second referendum wasn't even voted on as there aren't the numbers in parliament for it, but it won't stop them saying it's the only way forward. Taking no deal off the table has had a semi-thumbs up, intention but no legislation. Norway+/EU- has not been put forward as it will go down in flames even harder than the 'People's vote'. But there was a vote to change the backstop.

Some progress. The Withdrawal Agreement is woeful but the backstop is the worst of it. We won't agree to it, and now we have Donald Tusk still saying, what do you want. Well, we've told you that we may just swallow the withdrawal agreement but the backstop has to be removed, time limited, or have an exit mechanism for the UK. No the EU says. 'The agreement is agreed it cannot be re-opened'. Well, it is not agreed. Parliament has not agreed to it. It is a worthless collection of 585 pages without parliament agreeing to it. 

They may get the message, but for now we just get Irish, French and German politicians on our airwaves saying it cannot be changed. If there is an argument for leaving the EU, this is it. We cannot have any agreement because the EU is so inflexible. If anyone still thinks the EU can be reformed from within, take a look. It cannot.

Our remainers in parliament cannot reconcile themselves to the result of the referendum. They will try any way to stop us leaving. Norway+, EU-, Norway for Now, Common Market 2.0, People's Vote, Article 50 delayed, No deal off the table. They are all mechanisms to make sure we don't leave. And all those politicians are liars. They don't say that the real reason is to remain, but it is.

We can and should leave on 29th March. It will be bad if there is no deal, but we'll manage, and then we can put it all back together again. From outside the EU, they will will want a deal very quickly but without the threats. This time we won't be paying £39Bn. They will have had their chance, and their brinkmanship will not have worked, liked it didn't work when they brushed aside David Cameron's attempt at a meaningful renegotiation.

Maybe the EU will see sense and do something with the backstop, but they're holding out for our gutless remainers in parliament to take no deal off the table and do the EU's bidding for them. And I think that will happen. 

If we don't leave soon, there will be a new party and we will leave one day soon when that party comes into power and revokes our membership at the drop of a hat.

We must leave on 29th March and move on with our lives, we cannot keep going around this. We are getting very angry.

Our crappy government led badly from the top has badly served us but the alternative is worse and this rotten rump of parliamentarians are helping the EU. Meanwhile the EU watches on saying 'NO' to anything reasonable.

That's why I'm More Leave Than Ever.

Squiffy. 

2018 is over. Here comes 2019

I make my predictions every year and then see how badly I did at the end of it.

Here's my list of predictions from 2018.

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a fifth time. 1 point
2. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship, with Red Bull beating Ferrari to 2nd in the constuctor's Championship. 0 points
3. There will be disarray in Ferrari this year as their car is not as successful as the 2017 version. 0 points
4. There will not be a General Election in the UK in 2018.  1 point
5. There will be a quick agreement on a a Brexit transition deal and a final deal will be ready in October. 1/2 point (transition was agreed quickly, withdrawal deal was later in November)
6. It will be a very difficult process and possible constitutional crisis trying to get the EU Withdrawal through the House Of Lords. 1/2 point (it is a difficult process and has been cancelled once)
7. The Labour Party will have a little crisis over their position on Brexit with some resignations, and Corbyn will end the year less popular. 0 points (this is still to come)
8. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 41%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 3%. 1 point
9. UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 0 points (still to come)
10. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 0 points (still to come)

I make that 4 points out of 10, not good again. I thought Red Bull would do better than Ferrari, but that was not the case. Ferrari were in a little disarray but not as bad as I thought.

A lot of the political points I mentioned are still possible but now in 2019 - 2018 has been a year of treading water!

So here's my go for 2019 (11 this time as there's going to be a lot going on):

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship again.
2. Sebastien Vettel will be beaten by Charles Leclerk.
3. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship.
4. Theresa May will lose the vote on EU Withdrawal deal.
5. Attempts to force a second 'public' vote will fail.
6. We will leave the EU on a managed no-deal basis
7. Theresa May will resign and Dominic Raab will become Prime Minister after we have left the EU.
8. The Labour Party will split after we leave the EU and there will be a new centrist party.
9. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 35%, Labour at 23%, A new centrist party 24%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 1%. 
10. UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 
11. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 

Squiffy.

The options after the defeat on Tuesday

I have been thinking about the options facing the UK after Theresa May's inevitable defeat on the vote on Tuesday. There's lots of pages in the press in the options facing us so let's take a look.

Confidence Vote
The DUP have said they will vote for the Government in the event of a confidence vote. The Tories will not vote to let in Corbyn so it is extremely unlikely that this event will happen.

General Election
This option is if Prime Minister decides on a General Election. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for it. I don't think the Prime Minister will go for this, especially after the last one wiped out her majority.

Theresa Resigns
I think this is quite highly likely. She has so far been very resilient, but I have a hunch that she just wants to get to this vote and to say that she tried her best. Maybe not.

Vote of Confidence in Theresa
This would happen if 48 letters go into the Graham Brady as the chairman of the 1922 committee. I think that this is guaranteed if she doesn't resign of her own accord. I think she will then lose, or not win by enough to stay on.

Small Renegotiation
Theresa May somehow clings on and tries to get something small as a concession by the EU. I honestly don't think she will be able to get anything big enough to get a second vote passed.

Delay
So far Theresa May has shown she likes to kick the can down the road. If she does try to delay I reckon the 48 letters will go in. I'm not sure the EU will be happy too.

Big Renegotation
She rips up the plan and starts again? No way. It would have to be under a new PM. Will the EU show any ankle? No way too.

Parliament Tries to Pivot to Norway
There is a mood amongst some remainers to pivot to Norway. Norway gives access to the single market for a fee. It also requires freedom of movement. The one thing it doesn't do is solve the perceived Northern Irish border problem, so it would have to be Norway+, i.e. be in the single market and the custom union.

This, some think, could command a majority in the House of Commons. I'm not sure. This will not satisfy any of Theresa May's red lines, or the aims of the vote. No trade deals, no stopping of freedom of movement, and still paying for being in the single market. It will also stop Corbyn from doing state aid and some of the other protectionist schemes he wants. I would think Labour in the main would go against. It still doesn't satisfy their six tests (although nothing will).

I think it is unlikely.

People's Vote
This will do it's best to get off the line. There will be lots of people against a second referendum, but let's say there is a majority for some kind of referendum. The next question is what will be on the vote. Remain/May's deal, Remain/No deal, Remain/Renegotiate, Remain/May's Deal/No Deal. If it's a three way there would have to be some kind of AV, otherwise there would be accusations of trying to blatantly scupper Brexit. Can you imagine one of those getting a majority out of those that want a referendum? I can't.

But let's say there is some kind of agreement, and it becomes Remain/No deal. The remainers think that the crap negotiation will swing some 2016 leavers in to remain, and it is likely for a small group. There will also be some more youthful voters eligible. There will also be some people who wanted to vote leave last time but were scared by project fear, and now see that nothing bad really happened, so will vote leave. There will also be people who voted remain but see the second vote as an affront to democracy and will vote leave to send a strong message to the Government to listen to the first vote.

The one thing that isn't mentioned in the press is that last time the Government were very pro-Remain. Before the campaigns started the Government spent £9m of taxpayer money on a pamphlet for every house asking to vote remain. What would the Government do this time? This is the Government that said 'Brexit means Brexit'. They could not be pro-Remain this time. Corbyn will still be as luke warm. I think the likelihood is that there would be a bigger vote for leave this time.

Which takes us where?

Managed No Deal
I think when a few of the other options have been tried, we will get to a managed no deal. Small deals to keep the lights on, beneficial to us and the EU. And then we leave.

Squiffy.

F1 2018 is over

The Formula 1 season is over. Lewis Hamilton is champion as are Mercedes again. It's all too easy to think it was another walk in the park for the Mercedes crew but the statistics hide what was a closely fought battle.

At the beginning of the season the Mercedes seemed to have another 'diva' on its hands and Hamilton was not able to extract the maximum. It's been a pattern of the last few years that at the start of the season Hamilton and his team-mate (be it Bottas or Rosberg) are closely matched with Hamilton having the odd weekend where he can't unlock the speed. As the season rolls on he gets more comfortable in the car and then can unlock its potential, he then tends to leave his rivals for dust. This year was no different.As usual, from mid-season Hamilton was riding the peaks.

For much of the season the Ferrari was the fastest car. Vettel was able to take some impressive wins and the title battle was see-sawing between Vettel and Hamilton. For around three races in the second half of the year Ferrari went into a development cul-de-sac and actually made their car slower.  They then reversed the changes and were fastest again. Overall I would say the Ferrari was just a touch faster.

What made the difference? I think it was the drivers. Hamilton has made only a couple of minor errors this year, such as in qualifying in Russia. None of them have made a huge impact. On the other hand Vettel has made six or seven rather large errors which have severely hampered him. I believe if Hamilton had been driving for Ferrari this year then he would still have been World Champion and Ferrari would be celebrating their first for a decade.

Hamilton has been at the top of his game this year, driving better than ever. I think he is right up there with the best. In fact I would now say he's above Schumacher. Not just because the statistics are close, but because of the manner of his winning. He is fair, and he has a team-mate who does not have to be subservient. Schumacher was outright number one in the team and very early in the seasons his team mate would have to pull over for him (e.g. Austria 2002). Bottas let Hamilton through last year in Hungary to try to gain a place, but Hamilton let him back in front later. This year in Russia Bottas let Hamilton through, but at that time it was clear that Bottas was not going to win the championship. There are none of the controversies for Hamilton of Schumachers taking out Hill in 94, Villeneuve in 97 or parking it at Rascasse in Monaco 06.

Hamilton's team mate, Valterri Bottas started well but was really outclassed at the end of the season and really needs to improve next year for him to stop Ocon taking his seat for 2020.

As for Vettel, he needs to cut down the mistakes. That's two years running that his title campaign has been sent awry by big mistakes (Singapore 2017, Germany 2018). I think the pressure of Ferrari gets to him. I think he is going to find it very hard next year with Leclerc at his heels. In fact I think there will be fireworks, and maybe Leclerc will get the better of Vettel (like Ricciardo did in 2014).

For now Alonso is out of F1. A career marked by brilliance in the car and petulance out of it. What could have been? If he'd made different choices at times in his life Alonso could be a seven time World Champ. He may come back, maybe Ferrari in 2020?

For now we can rest on Sundays before it all starts up again next year. The cars will have a few simplified wings, which can only be a good thing. If I had my way they would look simpler still. Roll on 2019.

Squiffy.

Against

I've now fully decided on the EU. The deal which I hate must be voted down. Although I hated the backstop, I hoped the EU would be ok with it and not try to control the UK using it.

Emmanuel Macron has let the cat out of the bag. He said that he would force the UK into the backstop and keep us there until we agreed to let French fisherman have all their rights to UK fishing grounds.

Spain raised similar views on the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

Although EU countries don't have a veto on the withdrawal deal, they do on the trade deal which follows. It is clear they will push us into the backstop and keep us there. That is simply not acceptable and hoping for the EU to be nice to us is not going to cut it.

What will happen? No-one knows. Here's what I hope...

1) The vote goes down
2) Theresa May resigns
3) Labour tries to force a general election and fails
4) The People's Vote lot try to get that through and fail
5) The Tories elect a full-on brexiteer
6) The new leader stops the £39Bn payment.
7) The new leader agrees with the EU for small facilitating deals, for small payments to the EU. These would be deals like keeping the planes flying etc. The payment will be < £1Bn per annum.
8) Parliament feels unable to vote down these small deals.
9) We leave on 29th March with as many as these small deals in place. Maybe with a small delay to the leave date.
10) We become independent.
11) Later, several years later, we approach the EU for a Free Trade Agreement on a par with Canada.

Let's hope...

Squiffy.

The Deal

I'm in conflict. The EU Withdrawal agreement is horrible. I hate it. Especially that the notorious backstop that can only be escaped with the agreement of the EU. It seems to be a serious loss of sovereignty. In fact there is so much to hate. I really don't want it and would rather have a no deal.

But.

I suspect that if it fails, there will be no Brexit and possibly the Government will fail. Is it worth this bad deal in the hope that the Prime Minister is ousted in favour of a Brexiteer once we get into the transition period? That new PM could get a better final deal?

The Government and PM have made such a hash of it. The only solace I know is that Corbyn and his lot would be worse. But it could have been so much better if we'd played hardball.

Oh how I wish it had played out so much better. I suspected Theresa May would make a bad PM and I've been proved right. If only we'd had a proper Brexiteer as PM. It looks like its probably too late to get the Brexit we want and deserve.

Such a shame!

I don't know what I want now.

Squiffy.

One more mistake could lead to an F1 surprise

I've been mulling a possible scenario which may lead to unexpected turn of events in F1 at the end of the season.

Ferrari has the fastest car, marginally faster than the Mercedes, but Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes lead the World Championships. The reason being that Sebastien Vettel has made four serious point scoring errors and is now thirty points behind his rival.

Vettel will now be under immense pressure to deliver the first Ferrari World Championship since 2007. It is apparent too that Vettel does not always handle pressure well and it drives him to make more mistakes. Hamilton now makes very few mistakes, his disastrous 2011 season is well behind him.

What if, with a decisive car advantage, Vettel is unable to cut out the mistakes and bring the championship home? The Italian press will be in revolt and pressing for a change. But it will be clear who is at fault. Could Vettel be sacked at the end of the season? It's not unusual for Ferrari to sack a multiple World Champion, they did it to Alain Prost at the end of 1991 after he criticised the car. This time the crime will be more serious by not capitalising on a great car.

If Ferrari were to fire their team lead - who could step forward? They'd need a proven race winner, ideally a champion driving at the top of his game, free of contract. Step forward a certain Mr Alonso. We know he left Ferrari under unhappy circumstances, but he did so at McLaren under worse conditions and went back.

A strange turn of events? Maybe, but with each mistake Vettel makes, I think it becomes more likely.

Squiffy.

Moving fast: A new way forward. PM for PM

It looks like Theresa May's Brexit deal is already dead.

I thought it may be the best way forward but now that more amendments have been added there's no way the EU will accept it without modification. It cannot now stand. Remainers and Leavers are both angry. There can now only be one way forward (for now at least).

Theresa May must be deposed. The time has come for Boris Johnson to do his duty, find his inner Geoffrey How and create a resignation speech that changes the leadership. I believe he is going to make the resignation speech today. He needs to inspire and call for a change of leadership. He needs to go as far as possible to make members of the Government think there can be a better way - without him as Prime Minister.

There needs to be a vote of confidence with certainty that Theresa May will lose and that there is an attractive, viable alternative. Which means someone from the cabinet will have to stand down at that vote of confidence in order to provide an alternative.

There's several available, but right now I have Penny Mordaunt in my mind. Someone who talks human but is a Brexiteer.

If this can be put forward to the party after a barnstorming speech by her which also inspires MPs, the membership will go for it - like they did with David Cameron.

She can then put in place the David Davis White Paper being tough with the EU.

She needs to go to the wire with the EU.

It then needs to be put to the House Of Commons with the stark choice of that plan or no plan. If it fails, the new PM should call an election on the single issue of the deal. As someone new, fresh and human talking to the people she will have a good chance of winning the Brexit votes and Tory votes.

The manifesto will be sacrosanct and MPs will be expected to stick to it or be de-selected in favour of a pro-deal Tory.

At the moment Tories are scared of a general election, for the sole reason that Theresa May is PM. Take her away and put someone more empathetic in her place with a firm plan and Jeremy Corbyn becomes eminently beatable.

At the moment I cannot see another way.

Squiffy.