Formula 1 Shakedown Part 1

Similarly to last year, I thought I'd give my thoughts on the forthcoming season with a summary of what the teams look like going into this weekend's Melbourne Grand Prix.

Ferrari

The Ferrari team is looking good going into the season. The car is, again, looking like one of the fastest on the grid, although there are some worries about the reliability of the F60, especially with Ferrari's KERS device.

It looks like Felipe Massa will have a fight on his hands this year as the new car seems to be more to Kimi Raikkonen's handling. This will be partly due to the re-introduction of slick tyres, which will enable Kimi to use his oversteer style more readily. It will be great to see if Kimi can get back to his best, and take the fight to Felipe Massa. Massa should still be on top form although he also didn't cope well with the initial changes last year, but came back after two races to launch his challenge.

McLaren

When the new McLaren MP/4-24 was launched, it looked like the best looking car of the lot. It takes time to get used to the high rear wings and snow plough front wings, but McLaren looked to have produced an elegant solution. In testing however, McLaren stayed with the 2008 rear wing for too long and were struck by an absence of downforce when the 2009 rear wing was attached.

Either McLaren are sandbagging, or they really have a problem. If they do have a problem, don't expect to see them on the podium in the first few races, but if any team can pull it around it's name is McLaren.

Lewis Hamilton looks relaxed going into the season, and with the monkey off his back maybe he will eliminate some of the errors that blighted his season last year. It's going to be a testing time for him and will show whether he is a great driver outside of the car - by that I mean whether he has the technological feedback to help fix a recalcitrant car.

Heikki Kovalainen has one more year at McLaren to show that he has what it takes. If he can take the fight to Hamilton then he should be safe, but otherwise this could be a make or break year for him.

BMW Sauber

The BMW Sauber team look very good going into the season. They've been working on the KERS device for probably longer than anyone else and it is shown in their reliable testing. The times have been fast showing that they are well prepared for 2009.

Robert Kubica is also looking in good form, he was the most consistent driver of 2008 and possibly could have been champion has BMW continued to pile their efforts into the 2008 car rather than the F1.09. One thing that counts against Kubica is his size and if they run the KERS device the car will have limited scope for ballast, making corrections to help balance the car more difficult. If BMW can get around these problems then it is conceivable to see the Pole win his first world championship.

Nick Heidfeld had a terrible 2008 and was unable to match his team-mate. This year he has to show more speed, otherwise it could be his last in F1. Fortunately, his size, will aid him in his battle with Kubica, as BMW may fit the KERS device to Heidfeld's car but not to Kubica's.

Renault

When the Renault was launched it looked awful. The nose is too square and flat, and they say that ugly cars don't win (although that's not really true). From first tests, the car looked to be about two seconds off the pace but in true Renault style, they appear to have made some great leaps during the off season. The team is great at discovering lost pace, just like they did last year. So maybe Renault will surprise us.

Fernando Alonso is probably the best overall driver in the world and shows that he still has the spark to win. The car this year must win if it is to keep him on board, otherwise he could be heading to Ferrari or BMW at the end of the year if circumstances allow.

Nelson Piquet Jr had a torrid time in 2008, making more rookie mistakes than anyone else. I half expected him to be dropped for 2009, but luckily for him he's managed to keep his drive. This year he must deliver and be closer to his illustrious team mate to keep him in F1 for 2010.

Toyota

The Toyota team have been a bit of a puzzle. They have some of the best resources available to them and huge expenditure but have rarely delivered. In many cases the cars they have produced have looked a couple of years behind the game. Not so this year, the car is looking much better and has followed many of the current concepts. It will not be racing with KERS for a while, but we don't know yet whether that is a benefit or hindrance. If the team does not deliver their first win this year, I expect Toyota will go the way of Honda and pull the plug.

Jarno Trulli is also a bit of a puzzle. He is supremely quick in qualifying and naturally talented but sometimes falls asleep during a race. This may be his last chance to win a second race in F1 and he has to grab it with both hands, otherwise it could be curtains for him.

Timo Glock was a bit of a revelation in 2008. His previous spell in F1 with Jordan was not a major success and Toyota managed to gamble on him this time last year. After a shaky start, though, he seemed to settle in to Toyota and started delivering some great results. Unfortunately he will be dogged by the last corner of Interlagos 2008, and the stupid suggestion that he gave the world championship to Lewis Hamilton. He was on dry tyres on a wet race track, still kept the car on the island, and managed to gain a place by staying out on dries. He drove well. This could be the year he excels in Toyota.

A review of the next five teams will follow shortly.

Squiffy.