There has been much talk lately of a narrowing of the polls, of hung parliaments and of difficult times ahead for David Cameron. Yes, there been a small narrowing in the polls, mainly due to a softening of the Tory vote and not through a resurgence of the Labour party.
I think this has mainly been through the following reasons. Gordon Brown and the Labour party have not managed to slip on a banana skin for the last month, in fact the PM was seen with pity when The Sun made an attack on him. David Cameron had to make the change on policy over the Lisbon referendum, leading to some people talking about moving to UKIP. There was also the incident of Elizabeth Truss and the 'Turnip Taliban'.
It all adds up to some small movements in the polls. I don't think this is a defining time though. Never underestimate Gordon Brown's propensity to turn some good news for him into bad news. Next week is the Pre-budget report, and if history is any guide then it will be full of partisan announcements designed to create dividing lines. The public see this for what it is, and want some honesty about what to expect after the election in putting UK Plc's finances back on track. They will not get it, and I think the usual backlash will occur.
By mid December, expect to see the Tories back in the low 40's and Labour around 25.
Squiffy.
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