Could the Lib-Dems nudge Labour into third?

We've all heard the opinions of the first leadership debate, and I thought that Nick Clegg did win the debate, he appeared normal and can berate both other parties equally. Cameron performed well-ish but he is so much better when he talks with passion. Brown did better than expected, but was the really the same old Gordon and it came across.

The first opinion polls also showed the same results but the most fascinating is the voting intention poll showing the Tories in the lead, Lib Dems in second and Labour in third. Of course polls taken immediately after an event tend to have unusual swings and so we cannot read too much into it, but it is clear that the Lib Dems will get a bounce.

I think in the next two debates Cameron will change his strategy and attack both candidates for their policies. In the third I think he will do the hope thing again. Whether Gordon Brown can change his approach is another matter, he may be less agreeable with Nick Clegg as he may be battling it out with the Lib Dems for second.

If the Lib Dems do come second in the election it is still very unlikely they will have more seats than either of the other parties, but the likelihood of a hung parliament is greater. If Labour come third but have most seats it would be impossible for the Lib Dems to back them up. All their arguments of the "party with the most legitimacy should form the Government" would be laughable if they even tired it. So it would have to be a Con/LibDem deal if not a coalition. This could kill the LibDem resurgence or kill Labour. It would be fascinating to watch.

It may now be seen as a mistake for Gordon Brown to cosy up to the Lib Dems, as it could go badly wrong. I think there will be some more distance in the next few days and also more scrutiny of the LibDem policies.

I'm now going to read the manifestos...what am I letting myself in for!

Squiffy.