The hand of history gives Gordie a slap in the face

Gordon Brown is trying desperately to show some success in leadership on difficult foreign policy and domestic issues. He remembers his success on the G20 summit and wants to replicate it, hence his big presence at Copenhagen, the Northern Ireland policing summit and now the Afghan summit.

 

Unfortunately his luck seems to have run out. There was no deal at Copenhagen, the Yemeni summit was a damp squib and yesterday all he got was a slap in the face and recriminations. It’s a far cry from Tony’s fantastic quote from the Good Friday agreement:

 

“This is no time for soundbites , you can leave them at home but I feel the hand of history on my shoulder”

 

No, Gordie, the summits will no longer work, and staying in Belfast for a few extra hours just looked like you were ducking PMQs to avoid answering questions on the 0.1% !

 

Squiffy.

 

Wow, we have amazing GDP growth of 0.1%

The latest GDP figures show that we have grown by 0.1% putting an end to the recession. It’s very weak though, and lends even more weight to my theory a few days ago that it may go negative again in Q1 2010, and lead to an earlier election.

 

Of course, these figures are an early estimate and may get revised up to show stronger growth. On the other hand, they could be revised down and show we are still in recession!

 

Squiffy.

 

Is it a March Election?

The collective wisdom seems to have settled on a May 6^th General Election, but a few things look like they might trigger an earlier election.

 

In the last few days Gordon Brown has offered to appear before the Chilcot inquiry. The letters have been published, and in response Chilcot says:

 

“The committee plans to conclude its hearings on Monday 8 February…That would mean, if you take up the offer, holding the hearings at the end of February or early March…..If, of course, in the meantime a General Election is called, we would need to postpone the hearing, as we have always made clear”.

 

Although Gordon Brown says he is relaxed about appearing before the inquiry, this may be bravado. Maybe he is worried that it would be a bad start to the Election Campaign. A General Election in March would be a get out clause.

 

Adding to the problems, Alistair Darling seems determined to start bringing the fiscal deficit down in the Budget. To avoid the bad headlines which would inevitably accompany the cuts and destroy one of Brown’s election tactics, or a possible resignation if Brown stops Darling getting his way this time, it makes sense to avoid having a budget.

 

We will also be likely to have briefly come out of recession before the we enter it again. To me it makes sense to go in March, will Brown jump though?

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

David Blunkett accuses the Tories of gerrymandering

David Blunkett has accused the Tories of planning to gerrymander future elections due to the plan to reduce the number of seats in Parliament. I know, that doesn’t make sense!

 

What he really means is that the plan to make each seat represent the same number of electors (i.e. having the same size constituency) will take away the current bias in the electoral system which means the Tories need a lead of 8% to get the same seats. The cheek of it!

 

He talks about poor people not being willing to vote – which obviously is going to hurt Labour more than the Tories, but that is a problem of the parties not enthusing poor people to vote and not a problem with the electoral system. Go and take a look at Obama’s campaign if you really want to tackle that!

 

He really wants to entrench the current bias in the system for years to come, i.e. gerrymander to keep Labour in power.

 

Squiffy.

 

Schumacher's mind tricks

It is not known whether Michael Schumacher will have outright No 1 status at Mercedes (one can guess that if there is any new kit – he’ll get it first though).

 

He was though supposed to get the Number 4 on his car, whereas Nico Rosberg was supposed to have 3. Traditionally, the lower number is for the number 1 in the team and I guess that Rosberg came to the team expecting to lead it after Button jumped ship to McLaren and expected to be adorned with “3”.

 

Apparently, Schumacher has a preference for odd numbers, funny that,  and has been granted a swap. He’s used to having Number 1 on his nosecone, maybe they should just try to get that for him.

 

I think the mind games for supremacy at Mercedes have started early!

 

Squiffy.

 

The double dip beckons

Today’s inflation figures show that CPI has risen by 1.0% in a month to 2.9%. I would have expected a rise like that to occur after January’s figures are produced (these will include the VAT rise), but not in December where all the retail outlets were targeting Christmas customers with sales.

 

It shows that the inflation we had before the recession (it was relatively high) has not been beaten out of the system by the downturn, and is ready to return with a vengeance. We’re not officially out of the recession yet, but the double dip is on the horizon. The effect of quantitative easing and VAT increases will combine to drive inflation up, meaning that the Bank Of England is likely to raise interest rates sooner than later. Add in the effect of the market’s view on our debt and the outlook looks bleak.

 

If we do to take hold get growth in Q4 2009, expect recession again in Q1 2010.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Brown's shameless grab for the middle

You’ve got to admire the sheer cheek of it. Gordon Brown is now a middle class warrior, declaring that he will protect the middle classes.

 

Er, come again? Wasn’t it Mr Brown who decimated the middle class pension pot with his cack handed raid on pension dividends. Or did he put NI contributions up time and time again? Or did he try to stop city academies? Or did he introduce IR35 legislation? Or did he introduce a 50% tax rate? Or did he increase stamp duty? Or did his Government force parents to register on the child register to take kids and friends to football matches?

 

All of these things. Tony Blair had a feel for the middle classes, so did Mandelson – they understand aspiration. Brown never has, so it’s a bit rich now for him to ask us to trust him.

 

I never will.

 

Squiffy.

 

Raise a toast to Tom Harris MP

It’s not often that I agree with a Labour MP (apart from Frank Field – who’s in the wrong party), but Tom Harris is one thoughtful MP, who’s blog is well worth reading.

This post about minimum pricing for alcohol is spot on.

The most important point is this:

And thirdly – and by far most importantly – minimum pricing of alcohol won’t work. Do you imagine that the type of person who gets blitzed on a 12-pack of Carlsberg from the local supermarket is going to see the new, increased price label and say to himself: “No, I can no longer afford to indulge my drinking habit. I will therefore save my money and spend it instead on books for my children.”?

Absolutely right. It’s not going to work, but all parties seem to be set on it. It will make no difference. The fact is that this country has relied on alcohol since its birth – it was better for us than the water! We have grown up around it, it oils our social lives and occasionally we have too much. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much else for large sections of our community to do, and occasionally turns into often, so Fridays and Saturdays become a drunkfest and town centres become no-go areas.

I don’t have a solution, if people had better things to do then maybe it could be reduced. Maybe aspiration is the key, but at the moment an aspiration for many is to get drunk at the weekend.

Squiffy. (Possibly aptly named).

David Cameron needs to change tack

Gordon Brown performed well in today’s PMQs, as he did last week. He’s having a good run. He still doesn’t answer questions and manages to bluster well, but that’s GB for you.

 

I think David Cameron now needs to change tack. Recognizing that he’s not going to make headway with Gordon Brown, as GB asks DC the questions, he should turn the tables and start to answer the questions. He could use his honesty (like saying that he misspoke last week) to his benefit and be more open. The sight of David Cameron answering a question, then asking one which gets blustered by Gordon Brown will show that he is more Prime Ministerial and open.

 

It would certainly be a surprise to the house, and would GB be able to cope with this change of tactic.

 

Squiffy.

 

Are we lining up for an almight Brown-Darling bust up?

The outcome of last week’s snow plot is that Alistair Darling seems to have convinced Gordon Brown of the need to talk about cuts. He made this plain by immediately getting out and telling the Times that he would be setting out the worst comprehensive spending review for 20 years.

 

Unfortunately, we’ve been here before. In the middle of last year when Brown was using the Investment vs Tory Cuts there appeared to be a parting of the waves. Until the nearly successful coup forced Brown to start using the C-word. He then  reverted to his previous message, managing never to use the C-word in last week’s interview with Andrew Marr.

 

It seems that the Cabinet drags him to the centre, then as time goes by Ed Balls drags him back to the left until we get a coup attempt. It was in this backdrop that the Pre-Budget Report was made, and typically avoided any mention of cuts. It was then made known that Darling and Mandelson wanted to make clear that cuts would be needed.

 

What if Brown starts to go back to the investment vs cuts arguments in the run up to the election and budget? Could Alistair Darling say enough is enough and walk out. It would be devastating. If he stayed, he would still leak that Brown had stamped all over his budget. It could get very messy.

 

For all Brown’s words of bringing in Darling, Mandelson & Harman, he can’t shake his Balls.

 

Squiffy.

 

What an absolute shower

They’ve now had three attempts to get rid of this deeply unimpressive Prime Minister. They know they are doomed. But they haven’t got the balls, excuse the pun, to get rid.

 

They can’t speak to each other to prepare a well organized coup, each attempt has ended being a damp squib. If they can’t even organize a leadership election in a political party, how can they run a country? Well, they’re not. Apart from reacting to events, it’s hard to think of anything concrete which has come from the last 5 years of this Government. Lots of words and policy announcements, but very little effect. As someone once said, in office but not in power.

 

On an alternative note, the Tories got themselves into a small difficulty on Monday when David Cameron appeared to downgrade the commitment to recognize marriage in the tax system. After some little twisting, he came back and corrected himself to  turn it back into a commitment. This morning on the Today programme, he fessed up and said that he made a mistake and apologized. How refreshing, a politician telling the truth? It would have been easier to have covered up his mistake. But as Jim Hacker said once, honesty is sometimes the best way of surprising the opposition!

 

Squiffy.

 

2010 : The Predictions

Happy New Year to all. I hope 2010 is a great year, and one in which this discredit Government is evicted from office.

Here are my predictions for the year ahead.

1. The Tories will win the election with a majority of around 80. Many people think it will be tighter than that, but I think the polls overstate the Labour position.
2. The election shares will be Tories 43%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 24%.
   
3. Gordon Brown will be succeeded by Harriet Harman. (They should chose Andy Burnham)
   
4. Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship.
5. Michael Schumacher will win 3 races this year.
6. David Davis and Malcolm Rifkind will be in the Cabinet.
7. The country will have recovered last quarter but will enter it again this quarter. It will re-emerge in the 3rd quarter.
8. CPI Inflation will hit 3.5% by years end.
9. Lord Mandelson will renounce his peerage in an attempt to rejoin the commons.
10. The first Cabinet Minister to resign will be Alan Duncan.

Lets see how it looks at the end of the year.

Squiffy.

A look at my 2009 predictions

It's the end of the year and so it is time to mark my predictions for the year. Here is what I said:

1. There will be no general election in 2009. Although Gordon Brown will have been lining up a May/June election for seven months, the polls won't look good enough to risk it, and so GB will go until the last moment in 2010.
   CORRECT.
2. The recession will last throughout 2009. CORRECT.
   
3. Several other high street names will experience problems. I'm guessing at HMV, W.H.Smiths, and Robert Dyas. I just hope I'm wrong. OTHERS DID, BUT NOT THE ONES MENTIONED. HALF POINT.
   
4. Interest rates will reduce to 0.5%, the CPI will also go down to 0.5%, and the RPI will briefly go negative. CORRECT.
   
5. Robert Kubica will win the F1 World Championship. WRONG.
   
6. A bad set of economic figures in the beginning of the year will signal a reversal to Labour's recovery, the polls will go back to a good Tory position of Con 45%, Lab 26%, LD 17% by year's end. CORRECT.
   
7. Ken Clarke will come back as shadow Business secretary. CORRECT.
   
8. David Blunkett will come back as Home Secretary. WRONG.
   
9. The Tories will win the Local/Euro elections on a percentage share of 43%. Labour will get 22% with the LibDems at 26%. CORRECT, BUT FIGURES WRONG. HALF POINT.
   
10. Peter Mandelson will be forced to resign over some business dealings as EU Comissioner. WRONG.
    

So, that's 6 points out of 10. Not bad. Tomorrow for my 2010 predictions.

Squiffy.

Exciting - the leaders debates

The excitement has already started to build. Next year the UK will see its first leaders debate in a general election. All across the globe these events are standard practice, but here in Blighty we’re used to one party calling for a debate and another saying no.

 

Now that the blockade has been broken, they will form a part of every general election campaign here on in. Halleluiah, it’s taken a long time to get here but thankfully we’ve got here. The old refrain that every PM puts himself to questioning once a week at Prime Ministers Questions as an excuse will now be put to sleep.

 

I like the fact that the three debates will be 85 to 90 minutes long, quite a serious amount of time!

 

Who’s got something to lose, and who’s got something to win?

 

On the face of it, Gordon Brown, being an unpopular, PM has nothing to lose. David Cameron has everything to lose by starting  ahead. Nick Clegg has the gift of a lifetime in that he will get equal airtime to the two main party leaders.

 

So far the commentary follows these lines. I think that is too simplistic. For David Cameron, the repeated mantra that he hasn’t sealed the deal may be getting wearing. I don’t think things will change before the campaign, but a good performance may see him get closer.

 

David Cameron comes across well on TV, whereas Gordon Brown is notoriously bad and has a tendency to make mistakes under pressure (remember the investment of 0%). I’ve blogged before that the PM may well lose his temper and blow up under sustained questioning by the public (something he has never faced as PM) and if this happens it could be a real game changer.

 

Finally, I think Nick Clegg will do well whatever happens to the other two, if he gains 4 to 5 % on the back of a good performance I’d expect it to be at the expense of Labour rather than the Tories. It could make this election more like 1983 or 1987 with a seriously divided left leaving the Tories to win handsomely.

 

Only a few months to wait and we shall see.

 

I can’t wait, I wonder if I can get tickets for the audience?

 

Squiffy.

 

Why David Cameron cannot seal the deal.

During the last year or so there have been many articles about current polling trends, many pointing out that the Tories are stuck around the 40% mark and that David Cameron is seemingly unable to 'seal the deal'.

 

My thesis is that this is not a problem with David Cameron and that any Tory leader would have the same problem.

 

Many people remember the Tories from the last time they were in power, it's only 13 years ago, and many of them have a visceral hatred for them from that time. Two things which people remember is the sleaze at the end of the Government and the harshness at beginning, they put them together and get a corrupt and uncaring Government. They tend not to remember the transformed economy, the end of the strike culture, the international head held high etc.

 

When Labour were evicted in 1979, the feeling (I'm guessing as I was 6 years old) was that many people thought that the Government had their hearts in the right place but were incompetent, especially economically. Throughout the 80's and early 90's the population wanted a Government who could mix the caring image with economic competence. When Labour promised that with Tony Blair's election with a pledge to stick broadly to Tory economic principles, the populace embraced them with glee. Hence the national jubilation on May 2nd 1997.

 

For the Tories, now, this is not possible. The abiding memory will not allow it. David Cameron can only do his best, and the best that can be achieved is that floating voters reluctantly vote Tory. It will be for David Cameron to demonstrate, if he gets into office, that he can mix the economic competence with a compassionate conservatism whilst bringing down the deficit. If he can do this then he will seal the deal, and the following election will be easier to win. It's a very tall order, but with the right mix it is possible.

 

P.S. The Labour party are in a worse position now than the Tories were in 1997. As well as sleaze, they now look incompetent and are increasingly looking like they don't care what happens to the country whilst trying anything to stay elected.

 

Squiffy.

 

Will my prophesy come true, it looks like it has started...

I don't know when the polls will come in but looking at the newspaper headlines, it appears that the media narrative will change once again from a Labour recovery to Labour disaster.

 

Yesterday was another bad day, for everyone. Bad for the Government because they had precious little to give away as an election sweetener, and also bad because they didn't tackle the deficit and showed that everyone earning above £20, 000 is seen as a cash cow to plunder. Bad for the taxpayer, spending is going up next year and the day of reckoning has been put on hold again. It will only get worse. It was another opportunity lost.

 

Thankfully the tax on jobs, i.e. National Insurance rise, may not happen as it is penned to come in 2011 and there will be an election before then. Will the Government risk another awful budget next spring? Maybe not, maybe March 25th is now more likely than not. I hope so. We need rid - now!

 

I'm intrigued by the strategy, if you can call it that, of keeping on with the mantra that you don't cut the deficit and stimulus until the economy grows. The stimulus of the VAT cut will be taken away in 21 days time. What happens if this quarter's growth shows there is none and another contraction? It blows their whole argument out of the water! There's no wonder they reduced the tax on Bingo, they're hoping their numbers come in pretty quickly.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Why is it always me?

The country is in a mess, and so people like me have to pay a bit more. Fair enough. Beforehand, the country is growing with a booming economy so we need to tax those making money to pay for services. Me again.

 

And so it goes on, under a Labour Government, whatever the occasion people who are not the poorest will pay more and more and more. Until you think is it worth it? I could go on benefits and do some things that I enjoy rather than sit around at work getting bored, putting up with the horrible commuting experience, in winter never seeing daylight and earning money which gets taxed more and more heavily.

 

When do I get a break? Oh yes, I remember, under a Tory Government. A party that believes that doing work is good for you, and letting you choose how to spend your own money gives you responsibility, and with extra responsibility you can maybe set up an entrepreneurial enterprise and employ someone else and that by doing such the whole economy grows, tax receipts go up and there is more to spend on the poorest.

 

I'm just counting down to the days when whenever the Government makes a mess of it, they don't just decide to take a look in my wallet and help themselves.

 

So ends the moan.

 

Squiffy.

 

Why can't Gordon own up

Again Gordon Brown has told a mistruth, albeit a minor one. Yesterday in PMQs he said that Spain was a member of the G20. They do attend meetings but are not a member of the G20.

 

Harriet Harman has just popped up and said that he was exactly right to say what he did and that Spain is a member of the G20. Well he wasn't so why can't he just fess up. Last week David Cameron made a mistake in the House about the two schools linked to dubious organisations, but he came back and apologised. The PM seems pathologically unable to do the same.

 

If he needs a refresher, these are the members of the G20, taken from the G20 website www.g20.org:

• Argentina
• Australia
• Brazil
• Canada
• China
• France
• Germany
• India
• Indonesia
• Italy
• Japan
• Mexico
• Russia
• Saudi Arabia
• South Africa
• South Korea
• Turkey
• United Kingdom
• United States of America

Hello, where is Spain? I've looked up and down the list but cannot find it. No, not there. Come on, just be a man.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Gordon wows at last

Gordon Brown's performance today at PMQs was his best - by far. He may not have answered any questions but he was able to get his one liners in effectively and was able to make David Cameron uncomfortable.

 

Will he be able to keep up this level of performance? Only time will tell.

 

Squiffy.

 

My view on the polls

There has been much talk lately of a narrowing of the polls, of hung parliaments and of difficult times ahead for David Cameron. Yes, there been a small narrowing in the polls, mainly due to a softening of the Tory vote and not through a resurgence of the Labour party.

 

I think this has mainly been through the following reasons. Gordon Brown and the Labour party have not managed to slip on a banana skin for the last month, in fact the PM was seen with pity when The Sun made an attack on him. David Cameron had to make the change on policy over the Lisbon referendum, leading to some people talking about moving to UKIP. There was also the incident of Elizabeth Truss and the 'Turnip Taliban'.

 

It all adds up to some small movements in the polls. I don't think this is a defining time though. Never underestimate Gordon Brown's propensity to turn some good news for him into bad news. Next week is the Pre-budget report, and if history is any guide then it will be full of partisan announcements designed to create dividing lines. The public see this for what it is, and want some honesty about what to expect after the election in putting UK Plc's finances back on track. They will not get it, and I think the usual backlash will occur.

 

By mid December, expect to see the Tories back in the low 40's and Labour around 25.

 

Squiffy.