After four races it's now Hamilton 4 - Rosberg 0 in Qualifying and Hamilton 4 - Rosberg in races. I think it's fair to say that Hamilton now has whip hand at Mercedes. Rosberg is looking more and more like a good number 2. Maybe his best chance to be World Champion has already passed.
Now Lewis Hamilton can focus on being a triple World Champion.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 21 April 2015
Thursday, 9 April 2015
Anti-business, anti-aspiration, anti-Britain: Ed Miliband's your man
The opening weeks of the election campaign have confirmed one thing. Ed Miliband hates success.
If you want to be successful, don't try to do it in Britain.
The Labour party has announced in the last few months that they would introduce:
If you want to be successful, don't try to do it in Britain.
The Labour party has announced in the last few months that they would introduce:
- the 50% upper band for anyone earning over £150,000 per annum
- a 'mansion' tax on any properties worth over £2 million
- reduction of tax allowances on pension pots
- 'abolition' of non-dom status for people non resident in the UK
- an increase of 1% in corporation tax
At each point, when the policies have been argued, the Labour party representative has argues that they wouldn't expect it to change any behaviour and so not have a detrimental effect on our economy. But taken together the above policies represent a comprehensive attack on any kind of aspiration, business or successful person.
We know that tax changes behaviour. Otherwise why put tax on alcohol, cigarettes and fuel? The Labour party policies will deter many people from investing in Britain, living here or setting up successful businesses. The message is clear: Ed Miliband prefers the politics of student bar envy to a entrepreneurial economy creating jobs, employing thousands, paying wages and creating a wider tax base. He would prefer to take money from the well off rather than increase the tax take.
Ed Miliband laughs in the face of Arthur Laffer and his curve!
My worry is that people will fall for it. It all sounds so nice to put the 'burden on those with the widest shoulders'. In 2006 the top 1% paid 24% of the UK income tax take, last year that had increased to 27%. I want to know at what point have the rich paid their fair share? 30%, 35%, 40%?
How much longer can we continue to soak the rich before they take their pots of money away and the burden then falls on the poor? How much longer will the golden goose lay its eggs? Not much longer if the leader of the Labour party has its way.
Let's hope that the people of Britain see sense.
Squiffy.
P.S. on another note - I hear Ed Miliband is as decisive as Gordon Brown. Oh God, don't take me back to 2007-2009!
Thursday, 2 April 2015
Thursday, 26 March 2015
Sunday, 1 March 2015
F1 testing roundup
The 2015 winter season has ended, it's now just two weeks until the first Grand Prix in Melbourne. So what have we learnt?
The cars are going to be quite a bit quicker than last year. They look better in 2015 and may even be a little bit louder. But what about the competitive order? Not much appears to have changed.
Mercedes appear to be out front again. They have completed the whole of testing on one engine, and have been quickest when they chose to show their hand. They completed the most number of laps and have some great reliability. Williams seem to be in a similar position to last year as best of the rest, half a second behind the Mercs.
Red Bull are a bit of a puzzle. They seem relatively quick, but may have dropped back from last year, but their testing is better than last year. It's possible that they have a very good car, but the Renault engine is down on power and they will have dropped back.
The Ferrari looks much improved. The engine appears to be much better, the aerodynamics look better and their times might show them as the third best team. The car looks like it will suit Raikkonen better so expect him to be closer to Vettel than Alonso last year.
The McLaren looks like a much improved chassis with reports that it is much more predictable, something that Button particularly needs. The installation with Honda has been problematic though, and they have had a multitude of reliability issues, meaning that they haven't been able to do enough laps and demonstrate their true pace.
Force India turned up for the last three days of testing after issues of 'build problems' delaying them. When they did turn up, though, the car was good and extremely reliable. With reports of money worries, let's hope they can build a great season.
Toro Rosso have also run a lot of laps, and the car looks reasonable, but the Renault engine may let them down. The young Verstappen looks impressive.
The Sauber looks much improved. On top of having a better Ferrari engine, the chassis looks more stable especially around braking. Tey have put in fast times, though I suspect they have been show-boating a little.
We hope to see Manor/Marussia on the grid, though I suspect its still touch and go. They will run with a 2014 engine so will be uncompetitive, but they have to make it to the end of the year to continue with the payments from FOM.
It looks like it will be Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg again as champion, with Mercedes as constructors champions. I'm still looking forward to it though.
Squiffy.
The cars are going to be quite a bit quicker than last year. They look better in 2015 and may even be a little bit louder. But what about the competitive order? Not much appears to have changed.
Mercedes appear to be out front again. They have completed the whole of testing on one engine, and have been quickest when they chose to show their hand. They completed the most number of laps and have some great reliability. Williams seem to be in a similar position to last year as best of the rest, half a second behind the Mercs.
Red Bull are a bit of a puzzle. They seem relatively quick, but may have dropped back from last year, but their testing is better than last year. It's possible that they have a very good car, but the Renault engine is down on power and they will have dropped back.
The Ferrari looks much improved. The engine appears to be much better, the aerodynamics look better and their times might show them as the third best team. The car looks like it will suit Raikkonen better so expect him to be closer to Vettel than Alonso last year.
The McLaren looks like a much improved chassis with reports that it is much more predictable, something that Button particularly needs. The installation with Honda has been problematic though, and they have had a multitude of reliability issues, meaning that they haven't been able to do enough laps and demonstrate their true pace.
Force India turned up for the last three days of testing after issues of 'build problems' delaying them. When they did turn up, though, the car was good and extremely reliable. With reports of money worries, let's hope they can build a great season.
Toro Rosso have also run a lot of laps, and the car looks reasonable, but the Renault engine may let them down. The young Verstappen looks impressive.
The Sauber looks much improved. On top of having a better Ferrari engine, the chassis looks more stable especially around braking. Tey have put in fast times, though I suspect they have been show-boating a little.
We hope to see Manor/Marussia on the grid, though I suspect its still touch and go. They will run with a 2014 engine so will be uncompetitive, but they have to make it to the end of the year to continue with the payments from FOM.
It looks like it will be Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg again as champion, with Mercedes as constructors champions. I'm still looking forward to it though.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 10 February 2015
A new chapter in Greek mythology
The final act in Greece's struggle with the Euro has started, in what will surely go down as a new story in Greek mythology.
Since the election of Syriza on a platform of ignoring debts, hoping people will lend money with no expected of being paid back and staying in the Eurozone whilst insulting the Germans, the new Government is demonstrating amazing hope over expectation.
The way the negotiations are going does not really bear out any likelihood that a deal will be done, though many commentators do expect a rabbit to be pulled from the hat. I don't think so. The Greek Government has got itself - quickly - into a position where by to pull back will be a humiliation. They have even asked the German Government to pay reparations for the second World War. Not bloody likely, and insulting to the people who have lent loads of money to the Greeks over the last few years.
The screws are being tightened on Greece whilst they raise the minimum wage, re-hire public sector staff that were laid off, re-open the public broadcaster, and scrap any privatizations. The European Central Bank has closed down a facility for providing liquidity to Greek banks, meaning that funding will have to come from the Greek central bank - that won't last long. In the mean time the stock market is plummeting and withdrawals from Greek banks is continuing at a steady rate.
It will not be too long, possibly the end of the month, by which Greece starts to feel some pain. It will need an emergency loan, and I don't think anyone, other than maybe Russia, will oblige. From there it will be a game of brinkmanship. Will the Greek Government give up, or will the German Government? I think the stakes are higher if the Germans give in. It then paves the way for Spain, Portugal and Irelend to start throwing debt repayments to the wind, and I don't think the EU will countenance Spain leaving.
I therefore think that Greece will be in a full blown crisis by the end of March, with runs on the banks and capital leaving the country. They will shortly have to leave the Eurozone, the return of a new Drachma and then major inflation and pain for the whole of Greece. It will then quickly turn itself around, and maybe Spain will be interested to go it's own way in the end anyway!
And it will be down to some short term choices, just when Greece had started to rebuild.
Let that be a lesson in not to fall for short term gimmicks, sometimes you need to just face the pain.
Squiffy.
Since the election of Syriza on a platform of ignoring debts, hoping people will lend money with no expected of being paid back and staying in the Eurozone whilst insulting the Germans, the new Government is demonstrating amazing hope over expectation.
The way the negotiations are going does not really bear out any likelihood that a deal will be done, though many commentators do expect a rabbit to be pulled from the hat. I don't think so. The Greek Government has got itself - quickly - into a position where by to pull back will be a humiliation. They have even asked the German Government to pay reparations for the second World War. Not bloody likely, and insulting to the people who have lent loads of money to the Greeks over the last few years.
The screws are being tightened on Greece whilst they raise the minimum wage, re-hire public sector staff that were laid off, re-open the public broadcaster, and scrap any privatizations. The European Central Bank has closed down a facility for providing liquidity to Greek banks, meaning that funding will have to come from the Greek central bank - that won't last long. In the mean time the stock market is plummeting and withdrawals from Greek banks is continuing at a steady rate.
It will not be too long, possibly the end of the month, by which Greece starts to feel some pain. It will need an emergency loan, and I don't think anyone, other than maybe Russia, will oblige. From there it will be a game of brinkmanship. Will the Greek Government give up, or will the German Government? I think the stakes are higher if the Germans give in. It then paves the way for Spain, Portugal and Irelend to start throwing debt repayments to the wind, and I don't think the EU will countenance Spain leaving.
I therefore think that Greece will be in a full blown crisis by the end of March, with runs on the banks and capital leaving the country. They will shortly have to leave the Eurozone, the return of a new Drachma and then major inflation and pain for the whole of Greece. It will then quickly turn itself around, and maybe Spain will be interested to go it's own way in the end anyway!
And it will be down to some short term choices, just when Greece had started to rebuild.
Let that be a lesson in not to fall for short term gimmicks, sometimes you need to just face the pain.
Squiffy.
Saturday, 7 February 2015
F1 will eat itself
It's the end of the first week of testing in F1 2015 and we can draw a few conclusions.
Firstly, Mercedes are continuing where they left off. They have concentrated on reliability and so we cannot be sure of their performance, but rest assured that they will still be the team to beat.
The surprise is Ferrari, who seemed to be genuinely quick and reliable. Maybe they will be in a position to challenge this year, but possibly leading the second pack. Sauber seemed to have a much better car this year, and although I think their speed was deceptive (using low fuel loads) , in a much better position than last year.
The new McLaren looks like a better car, more refined and tightly packaged. But they were running well off the pace, with multiple issues surrounding sensors and the new Honda engine. It looks similar to the Renault problems from last year. If they can be resolved maybe they can challenge Red Bull, Ferrari and Williams for best of the rest.
The biggest disappointment has been from the meeting this week which refused the restarted Manor/Marussia from using last year's car. Apparently it was Force India that voted first and they refused. There is the little matter of Marussia's prize money of £30m being split equally amongst the other teams if they do not race. It could come down to greed.
F1's ruling structures are crazy. How can it be that teams get to vote on their competitor's rights to race?! Surely it should come under the FIA to determine. I guess it's because they are asking to race last year's car, and need the others to agree. But F1 has lost so many teams in the last few years and the competitors should put the sport before themselves. I understand Ron Dennis and Christian Horner were going to allow Marussia, so good on them!
Squiffy.
Firstly, Mercedes are continuing where they left off. They have concentrated on reliability and so we cannot be sure of their performance, but rest assured that they will still be the team to beat.
The surprise is Ferrari, who seemed to be genuinely quick and reliable. Maybe they will be in a position to challenge this year, but possibly leading the second pack. Sauber seemed to have a much better car this year, and although I think their speed was deceptive (using low fuel loads) , in a much better position than last year.
The new McLaren looks like a better car, more refined and tightly packaged. But they were running well off the pace, with multiple issues surrounding sensors and the new Honda engine. It looks similar to the Renault problems from last year. If they can be resolved maybe they can challenge Red Bull, Ferrari and Williams for best of the rest.
The biggest disappointment has been from the meeting this week which refused the restarted Manor/Marussia from using last year's car. Apparently it was Force India that voted first and they refused. There is the little matter of Marussia's prize money of £30m being split equally amongst the other teams if they do not race. It could come down to greed.
F1's ruling structures are crazy. How can it be that teams get to vote on their competitor's rights to race?! Surely it should come under the FIA to determine. I guess it's because they are asking to race last year's car, and need the others to agree. But F1 has lost so many teams in the last few years and the competitors should put the sport before themselves. I understand Ron Dennis and Christian Horner were going to allow Marussia, so good on them!
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 31 December 2014
2014 ends, 2015 begins
As is customary at this time I mark last year's predictions and create some new ones for the coming year.
Firstly, last years:
Firstly, last years:
- The economy will grow by 2.5% to 3% this year. 1 point
- The opinion polls will end the year at 36% Tory, 35% Labour, 12% LibDem, 10% UKIP. 1/2 point (Tories and Labour are level pegging)
- The European elections will give Labour the lead, UKIP 2nd (just behind), Tories 3rd and LibDems 4th. 0 points, UKIP led and the LibDems did worse
- Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship. 1 point
- The Ferrari power plant will be bad, leading to Alonso ditching them and joining McLaren for 2015. 1 point
- Tony Blair will speak out against Ed Miliband's leadership. 1/2 point (he sort of did yesterday and backtracked today)
- Vince Cable will resign or be sacked (hopefully). 0 points, still hanging in there
- Peter Mandelson will do Strictly. 0 points
- Scotland will vote against independence. 1 point
- Gordon Brown will announce he's leaving parliament in 2015. 1 point
Overall 6 out of 10. Not bad this year, certainly better than last year!
Now for 2015 predictions.
- The economy will continue to recover, and will grow by 2.5% this year. Wages growth will really begin to outstrip inflation/
- The General Election will be close, final tally Tories 36%, Labour 31%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 12%.
- Tories and Lib Dems will form a second coalition.
- Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship again.
- Sebastien Vettel will not perform as well as Alonso at Ferrari, and Ferrari will end the year in greater turmoil with Raikkonen being sacked.
- Labour will have a leadership election with Chukka Umuna winning.
- Vince Cable will lose his seat in the election (hopefully)
- UKIP will gain 2 seats at the General Election, but Rochester & Strood will not be one of them. Douglas Carswell will be re-elected.
- Hilary Clinton, Jeb Bush and Rand Paul will all run for the US Presidential primaries.
- Nick Clegg will resign the leadership of the Lib Dems.
Ok, let's see what happens. The General Election is going to be the most unpredictable in generations, so most of the above could be wrong.
Squiffy.
Sunday, 23 November 2014
Four hours to the title showdown: Hamilton vs Rosberg
You may be reading this after the race and know the result, or just before and in anticipation of the culmination of a fascinating season.
Yesterday, as so many times this season, Nico Rosberg grabbed pole after Lewis Hamilton was strangely off-colour on a Saturday. Usually, however, Hamilton has come back stronger and faster on Sunday, and I expect no different today. Hamilton is quick around Abu Dhabi, and without any other issues I'd expect him to prevail.
There's 17 points difference and Hamilton only needs to come second, but I don't expect him to tighten and win just by settling, like he did in 2008. Let's really hope that there are no mechanical issues, and I think the mechanics on both sides of the Mercedes garage will be desperate to avoid any issues.
Nico Rosberg has shown prodigious speed this year, and has surprised many, including me. He's also shown ruthlessness with the deliberate actions in Monaco and Spa, he definitely isn't the Mr Nice Guy we all presumed. There is an arrogance there which most F1 champs have. For another take, read Will Buxton's blog.
Lewis Hamilton has shown a lot more maturity this year, he's made more mistakes than I would expect, but he always bounces back, which he wouldn't have done a few years ago. I think he's more tense than he appears, but that is understandable. He has shown brilliant race-craft, which is such a stark contrast to his wayward 2011 season, where he would quite often collide with Felipe Massa! If his Saturday's have been more troubled than usual, his Sundays have been spectacular. I think by 10 wins to 5 and by coming back from a points deficit twice, he deserves this championship. For another take, check Will Buxton's Blog again.
Just a few hours to go.
Now to another issue. The demise of Marussia, possible death of Caterham and struggles for Force India, Sauber and Lotus has highlighted the terrible financial state of Formula 1. It's absolutely crazy that Ferrari and Red Bull get over £100m per year, and Marussia were getting £7m! I don't mind having a premium for success but that is just ridiculous. I would say increments of £3m for each place in the constructor's championship. Meaning that the gap between the top and bottom teams should be £30m at most. If I can see this, why can't F1?
Bernie Ecclestone has been name calling the three teams of Force India, Sauber, and Sauber and his behaviour is becoming increasingly bizarre. He recently said that F1 doesn't need young fans who can't buy Rolex watches! Hello? Where do older fans comes from, younger fans you idiot! I'm still watching and can afford a Rolex, but I started at the age of 14, when I couldn't. It's time for Bernie to toodle off.
Finally, how to tackle F1 in the absence of a change in money. Three car teams and customer cars have been raised. Christian Horner, as Ecclestone's mouthpiece, has complained about the new engines and wants to go back to the old V8s. That would be a disaster for the whole grid. The new formula is interesting and gives F1 a new purpose in developing hybrid car technology for the future of the human race.
But the new engines are expensive at £25m and the old engines were only £5m. I would suggest we did something similar to the late 80's where there was a choice of turbo or normally aspirated engines. We could allow slightly de-tuned or RPM limited old V8s to be fitted to cars. The cars would be unlikely to win but could make it to the midfield. In 2006 Toro Rosso was allowed to run de-tuned V10s, so it's not so bizarre an option!
Anyway, rant over.
Enjoy the race!
Squiffy
Thursday, 20 November 2014
Rochester and Strood
Today has been the Rochester and Strood by-election following the defection of the Tory MP Mark Reckless to UKIP.
This is supposed to be a key by-election for the Tories, UKIP and Labour. Maybe a verdict on Ed Miliband, maybe whether the Prime Minister can keep his troops in line until the General Election, and maybe the end of the UKIP rise.
Exciting then? As a resident of Rochester I looked forward to discussing issues with the candidates as they came canvassing. Unfortunately none came, which disappointed me. We got plenty of leaflets, however, two from UKIP, around six from the Tories, two from Labour and one from the LibDems. But no people. The high street was busy with the shops converted into makeshift political offices.
Make of it what you will that UKIP took over a spiritualist ex-wiccan shop, the Tories an old games shop and Labour the old butchers (I still miss their fantastic sausage rolls).
I did go to one of the hustings in the corn exchange. The Labour candidate was the most impressive but was poorly supported. One of the other candidates was in the audience and asked whether the main candidates wanted disabled people and pensioners to have a sex life! A strange question, which was not answered!
This morning I voted early (at 7 am), there were four others in front of me - which is quite brisk in my view. I don't know what this means, which candidate out of the two possible victors it favours.
I'll be watching as much coverage as possible tonight, hoping for an early result as I have work to go to tomorrow morning and busy weekend of F1 championship deciders to watch.
Still exciting.
Squiffy.
This is supposed to be a key by-election for the Tories, UKIP and Labour. Maybe a verdict on Ed Miliband, maybe whether the Prime Minister can keep his troops in line until the General Election, and maybe the end of the UKIP rise.
Exciting then? As a resident of Rochester I looked forward to discussing issues with the candidates as they came canvassing. Unfortunately none came, which disappointed me. We got plenty of leaflets, however, two from UKIP, around six from the Tories, two from Labour and one from the LibDems. But no people. The high street was busy with the shops converted into makeshift political offices.
Make of it what you will that UKIP took over a spiritualist ex-wiccan shop, the Tories an old games shop and Labour the old butchers (I still miss their fantastic sausage rolls).
I did go to one of the hustings in the corn exchange. The Labour candidate was the most impressive but was poorly supported. One of the other candidates was in the audience and asked whether the main candidates wanted disabled people and pensioners to have a sex life! A strange question, which was not answered!
This morning I voted early (at 7 am), there were four others in front of me - which is quite brisk in my view. I don't know what this means, which candidate out of the two possible victors it favours.
I'll be watching as much coverage as possible tonight, hoping for an early result as I have work to go to tomorrow morning and busy weekend of F1 championship deciders to watch.
Still exciting.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 11 November 2014
Do the Tories want to lose?
I ask the question because last night's debacle over the European Arrest Warrant vote makes the party management look very amateur.
They had the vote in the bag and David Cameron had promised a vote before the Rochester by-election so why did they bottle the vote on some kind of technicality? It looks evasive and breaks a promise. What is the point? I despair sometime.
Was this David Cameron's mistake or maybe Michael Gove or even Theresa May. Whoever it was needs to have a serious talking to. It was a real gift to UKIP and right wing backbenchers.
I sometimes think that the whole world is wanting us to vote bloody UKIP.
On a second point, I attended the hustings for the Rochester by-election and the most impressive candidate was the Labour Party candidate, Naushabah Khan. I'm afraid that the Tory candidate was disappointing and very defensive and Mark Reckless was evasive.
Really, I'm not sure any of them deserve to win!
Squiffy.
They had the vote in the bag and David Cameron had promised a vote before the Rochester by-election so why did they bottle the vote on some kind of technicality? It looks evasive and breaks a promise. What is the point? I despair sometime.
Was this David Cameron's mistake or maybe Michael Gove or even Theresa May. Whoever it was needs to have a serious talking to. It was a real gift to UKIP and right wing backbenchers.
I sometimes think that the whole world is wanting us to vote bloody UKIP.
On a second point, I attended the hustings for the Rochester by-election and the most impressive candidate was the Labour Party candidate, Naushabah Khan. I'm afraid that the Tory candidate was disappointing and very defensive and Mark Reckless was evasive.
Really, I'm not sure any of them deserve to win!
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 14 October 2014
Where is the Ferrari announcement?
It's been an interesting and also sobering time in F1.
The injury to Jules Bianchi overshadows everything. I read that he hit his head with a force of 92G, it is a wonder that he's still alive. I hope that he manages to make a recovery and can make it back into a car, as he has shown such promise.
The season has been fascinating. For a while it looked like the bad luck would completely destroy Hamilton's campaign, but since Rosberg's error in Spa the momentum has all been with the Brit. In fact the latter half of the season has shown Rosberg is prone to errors under pressure and so far he has yet to better Hamilton in a straight fight.
We're entering the end of the season and mileages on the engines are going to get critical. Is it a possibility that for the last double point race Mercedes decides to have penalties and replace the both engines? Maybe, just in case there is a danger than one of the cars might not finish.
The big news on driver moves is that Sebastien Vettel is leaving Red Bull. He's been out of sorts all year, and when he learnt that Alonso had exercised his get out of Ferrari clause, he leapt upon it. So Vettel to Ferrari. Or is it? The likelihood is yes, but it's weird that Ferrari haven't announced it. Why wouldn't they?
An off the wall thought. It looks like Alonso is heading to McLaren, but they're just trying to tie down the contract. Maybe McLaren have signed Vettel too! It would explain why Ferrari haven't announced Vettel.
Probably not, but you never know! Maybe Ferrari are looking at a way of getting rid of Raikkonen who has been a disappointment this year. Maybe Alonso will take a sabbatical with the aim of getting his backside into a Mercedes in 2016 (in which case I think he may be disappointed).
Looking forward to the last three races, but I don't want double points or reliability problems to settle this championship. If Rosberg wins at the last race with Hamilton out, the win tally could be 11-5 to Hamilton. It would be a travesty.
#ForzaJules
Squiffy
The injury to Jules Bianchi overshadows everything. I read that he hit his head with a force of 92G, it is a wonder that he's still alive. I hope that he manages to make a recovery and can make it back into a car, as he has shown such promise.
The season has been fascinating. For a while it looked like the bad luck would completely destroy Hamilton's campaign, but since Rosberg's error in Spa the momentum has all been with the Brit. In fact the latter half of the season has shown Rosberg is prone to errors under pressure and so far he has yet to better Hamilton in a straight fight.
We're entering the end of the season and mileages on the engines are going to get critical. Is it a possibility that for the last double point race Mercedes decides to have penalties and replace the both engines? Maybe, just in case there is a danger than one of the cars might not finish.
The big news on driver moves is that Sebastien Vettel is leaving Red Bull. He's been out of sorts all year, and when he learnt that Alonso had exercised his get out of Ferrari clause, he leapt upon it. So Vettel to Ferrari. Or is it? The likelihood is yes, but it's weird that Ferrari haven't announced it. Why wouldn't they?
An off the wall thought. It looks like Alonso is heading to McLaren, but they're just trying to tie down the contract. Maybe McLaren have signed Vettel too! It would explain why Ferrari haven't announced Vettel.
Probably not, but you never know! Maybe Ferrari are looking at a way of getting rid of Raikkonen who has been a disappointment this year. Maybe Alonso will take a sabbatical with the aim of getting his backside into a Mercedes in 2016 (in which case I think he may be disappointed).
Looking forward to the last three races, but I don't want double points or reliability problems to settle this championship. If Rosberg wins at the last race with Hamilton out, the win tally could be 11-5 to Hamilton. It would be a travesty.
#ForzaJules
Squiffy
Saturday, 11 October 2014
Could Douglas Carswell's election as UKIP MP be bad for them?
I quite like Douglas Carswell. He believes in democracy and better structures to support democracy. He is very independently minded. In fact, he could put the Independence into UKIP.
He's now a big fish in a small pond, rather than a small fish in a big pond. He will be on our TV screens a lot more as a spokesman for UKIP.
I think though that we'll be seeing some obvious differences of opinion with the leadership of Nigel Farage. He's already been highlighting a different opinion on immigration to the leadership, as he pointedly mentioned it in his victory speech in Clacton.
For now, though, he is the only UKIP MP and although not the leader he is now the most senior elected representative of the party. A full on general election campaign, this time round, will be looking for major differences of opinion between the leader and its first MP. Expect there to be more controversies.
I think it's likely Carswell will win re-election in 2015, but what happens if La Farage does not become MP? The differences could get more extreme. I foresee fireworks! In fact I can imagine a leadership challenge which Carswell might win. Afterwards, though, if Farage is not leader he would be very grumbly and UKIP could lose it's best electoral asset, as Carswell doesn't have the common touch of the current leader.
We might just be in the phase of peak UKIP, it might be downhill from here. It's possible we've just witnessed a new Kilroy-Silk moment.
Squiffy.
He's now a big fish in a small pond, rather than a small fish in a big pond. He will be on our TV screens a lot more as a spokesman for UKIP.
I think though that we'll be seeing some obvious differences of opinion with the leadership of Nigel Farage. He's already been highlighting a different opinion on immigration to the leadership, as he pointedly mentioned it in his victory speech in Clacton.
For now, though, he is the only UKIP MP and although not the leader he is now the most senior elected representative of the party. A full on general election campaign, this time round, will be looking for major differences of opinion between the leader and its first MP. Expect there to be more controversies.
I think it's likely Carswell will win re-election in 2015, but what happens if La Farage does not become MP? The differences could get more extreme. I foresee fireworks! In fact I can imagine a leadership challenge which Carswell might win. Afterwards, though, if Farage is not leader he would be very grumbly and UKIP could lose it's best electoral asset, as Carswell doesn't have the common touch of the current leader.
We might just be in the phase of peak UKIP, it might be downhill from here. It's possible we've just witnessed a new Kilroy-Silk moment.
Squiffy.
Nick Clegg's Speech: Verdict
A bit dull as he was only talking to his own base.
He did the usual 'plague on both your houses' section which is now getting so old it needs a pension. Lambasting Labour for breaking the economy and Tories for being mean. Only the Lib Dems can save us! In which case Lord help us.
The big offer was some improvements on mental health. Whilst worthy, it doesn't exactly set the pulse racing.
He was trying to gee up his own base for the election next year rather than talking to the electorate. As I say, rather dull.
The Lib Dems, although in Government, increasingly seem like an irrelevance.
Squiffy.
He did the usual 'plague on both your houses' section which is now getting so old it needs a pension. Lambasting Labour for breaking the economy and Tories for being mean. Only the Lib Dems can save us! In which case Lord help us.
The big offer was some improvements on mental health. Whilst worthy, it doesn't exactly set the pulse racing.
He was trying to gee up his own base for the election next year rather than talking to the electorate. As I say, rather dull.
The Lib Dems, although in Government, increasingly seem like an irrelevance.
Squiffy.
Thursday, 2 October 2014
UKIP want Labour to win
Most commentators think that UKIP would prefer there to be a Tory Prime Minister and a European referendum campaign rather than a Labour PM. Not true.
The nightmare scenario for UKIP is that the Tories win, David Cameron wins some marginal powers back and manages to sell it to the country in the referendum.
In much the same way that the Scottish referendum was David Cameron's gamble in that would take independence off the table for a generation, UKIP think the same is possibly true about the EU.
Any way in which Labour win and deny us another referendum will further the calls for us to be out.
It's possible, though, that they could get us out of the EU sooner rather than later. Though, it would be a pretty big gamble on their part. In this scenario, they'd need David Cameron to win and hold the referendum. After a period of stability, we may be about to see a bigger Euro problem than we had two years ago.
EU interest rates are at rock bottom and it looks like there may be a period of deflation. At the moment inflation is 0.3% and looking to go lower. Growth is anaemic. Germany is faltering. France and Italy are sick. The ECB would have no options, it would be up to EU Governments to save their economies - difficult given their levels of debt!
Given this back drop we may actually see more convulsions than we did in sovereign debt crisis. If Britain can keep growing while the EU, including Germany, starts to really have difficulties then maybe the whole Euro and even the EU could be on the table. Maybe then we'd want to be out.
As I say, a lot of things have to happen for this scenario to occur. But you never know.
Squiffy.
The nightmare scenario for UKIP is that the Tories win, David Cameron wins some marginal powers back and manages to sell it to the country in the referendum.
In much the same way that the Scottish referendum was David Cameron's gamble in that would take independence off the table for a generation, UKIP think the same is possibly true about the EU.
Any way in which Labour win and deny us another referendum will further the calls for us to be out.
It's possible, though, that they could get us out of the EU sooner rather than later. Though, it would be a pretty big gamble on their part. In this scenario, they'd need David Cameron to win and hold the referendum. After a period of stability, we may be about to see a bigger Euro problem than we had two years ago.
EU interest rates are at rock bottom and it looks like there may be a period of deflation. At the moment inflation is 0.3% and looking to go lower. Growth is anaemic. Germany is faltering. France and Italy are sick. The ECB would have no options, it would be up to EU Governments to save their economies - difficult given their levels of debt!
Given this back drop we may actually see more convulsions than we did in sovereign debt crisis. If Britain can keep growing while the EU, including Germany, starts to really have difficulties then maybe the whole Euro and even the EU could be on the table. Maybe then we'd want to be out.
As I say, a lot of things have to happen for this scenario to occur. But you never know.
Squiffy.
Cameron Speech: Verdict
What a difference a week makes! Last week we had Ed Miliband's forget-athon, a real lesson in why he should not be Prime Minister. This week David Cameron made the best conference speech of his premiership.
When the PM's back is against the wall he really can turn it on, and he did. He's shown that he can do the no notes speaking before - in fact it was he who started the trend - but he has eschewed this tactic to be more prime ministerial. And it works.
The speech was serious when it needed to be. He mentioned Patrick Churchill, a D-day veteran. In this year of remembrance it was a fitting tribute. He did not go on about all the people he met whilst walking around the leafy suburbs of Hampstead Heath who managed to speak Ed Miliband-ese.
The PM did not revert to the Tory comfort zone either. He was visibly moved to tears when mentioned the anger he feels when being accused of not caring about the NHS. He also said he would banish exclusive zero hour contracts and modern day slavery.
The PM obviously got into his stride when talking about raising the personal allowances at the 20% and 40% bands. I would have wished he'd raised the level at which National Insurance starts being paid, rather than the personal allowance. This would really help the lower paid being taken out of income taxes altogether. Its about time NI was rolled into income tax completely by the way!
He was good on Europe, but I want him to kill off a line of attack by saying that he would be prepared to recommend leaving if he cannot get what he wants. Maybe he can't make himself a hostage to fortune as then he'd need to outline his exact dividing lines.
He laid into the hypocracy of Labour's education policies, though it hasn't changed them in 40 years - it's not about to start doing so now. I wish he'd really go for them on the brass neck they have about English Votes for English Laws.
It was a great speech, whether it translates into a change in the polls is difficult to say. But it should. Anyone with an iota of common sense can see that there can only be one realistic candidate for PM after the next election. Ed Miliband is a walking disaster, and he'd turn this country into one.
Squiffy.
When the PM's back is against the wall he really can turn it on, and he did. He's shown that he can do the no notes speaking before - in fact it was he who started the trend - but he has eschewed this tactic to be more prime ministerial. And it works.
The speech was serious when it needed to be. He mentioned Patrick Churchill, a D-day veteran. In this year of remembrance it was a fitting tribute. He did not go on about all the people he met whilst walking around the leafy suburbs of Hampstead Heath who managed to speak Ed Miliband-ese.
The PM did not revert to the Tory comfort zone either. He was visibly moved to tears when mentioned the anger he feels when being accused of not caring about the NHS. He also said he would banish exclusive zero hour contracts and modern day slavery.
The PM obviously got into his stride when talking about raising the personal allowances at the 20% and 40% bands. I would have wished he'd raised the level at which National Insurance starts being paid, rather than the personal allowance. This would really help the lower paid being taken out of income taxes altogether. Its about time NI was rolled into income tax completely by the way!
He was good on Europe, but I want him to kill off a line of attack by saying that he would be prepared to recommend leaving if he cannot get what he wants. Maybe he can't make himself a hostage to fortune as then he'd need to outline his exact dividing lines.
He laid into the hypocracy of Labour's education policies, though it hasn't changed them in 40 years - it's not about to start doing so now. I wish he'd really go for them on the brass neck they have about English Votes for English Laws.
It was a great speech, whether it translates into a change in the polls is difficult to say. But it should. Anyone with an iota of common sense can see that there can only be one realistic candidate for PM after the next election. Ed Miliband is a walking disaster, and he'd turn this country into one.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 23 September 2014
Ed Miliband Conference Speech: Verdict
What a long, turgid, affair. Oh dear me. By far his worst conference speech.
It was long on anecdotes with Gareth, Elizabeth and all, but it didn't add up to much. For policies, we had some extra money for the NHS, voting for 16 and 17 year olds, a mansion tax and extra taxes on tobacco companies.
You can tell when Labour are operating the core vote strategy, they focus on the NHS. I remember a tweet from Dan Hodges, commentator, and son of Glenda Jackson MP, who said when they start banging on about NHS you know that they know they'll lose. I'm not so sure but I'm not plugged into the party like Dan was. They'll reverse the NHS changes made by the coalition. Does that ring a bell? Yes, when Labour came into power in 1997 they reversed the previous Tory hospital organisation and then 5 years later started to bring it back. Will they ever learn?
Themansion 4 bedroom semi tax has been spent twice now, to bring the deficit down and fund the NHS. A new tax. There's also a new tax on tobacco companies, as if they don't pay a lot anyway with duties. There will no doubt be more bank taxes too.
Whatever the problem, the answer is always the same. A new or increased tax to provide increased Government spending. If not, use borrowing for increased spending.
What was striking was that there was no mention of the deficit. We now know that he meant to mention it, but forgot. It's so easy to forget the most pressing issue affecting the country today. Immigrations was forgotten too. Another doorstep high priority.
Talking of a current issue which Labour has no answer to, the impact of devolution and English votes for English laws, Mr Miliband said David Cameron was trying to divide the nation.
Since the referendum I have felt more and more incensed by repeated claims that we shouldn't rush the answer, and have some constitutional convention. Who rushed into lots of devolution as soon as they were elected last time? Labour. They created this monster of an issue and did not bother to seek out answers to the unbalanced state they created in 13 years of power. It's because it suited them to brush it under the carpet. It's extremely rich for them now to accuse the Tories of trying to solve this problem to their advantage!
Anyway, back to the speech. Oh must I? If this man is Prime Minister next May I may have to go on Prozac. He's the least impressive leader since Iain Duncan-Smith.
Squiffy.
By the way, funny that Rachel Reeves, shadow pension secretary didn't know what the standard state pension was - she thought it was just below £100. I fact it's £113. You'd think she'd know. Yesterday she seemed to not quite know the difference between capital and current spending. This lady is supposed to be in the next group to be leader. Give me strength.
It was long on anecdotes with Gareth, Elizabeth and all, but it didn't add up to much. For policies, we had some extra money for the NHS, voting for 16 and 17 year olds, a mansion tax and extra taxes on tobacco companies.
You can tell when Labour are operating the core vote strategy, they focus on the NHS. I remember a tweet from Dan Hodges, commentator, and son of Glenda Jackson MP, who said when they start banging on about NHS you know that they know they'll lose. I'm not so sure but I'm not plugged into the party like Dan was. They'll reverse the NHS changes made by the coalition. Does that ring a bell? Yes, when Labour came into power in 1997 they reversed the previous Tory hospital organisation and then 5 years later started to bring it back. Will they ever learn?
The
Whatever the problem, the answer is always the same. A new or increased tax to provide increased Government spending. If not, use borrowing for increased spending.
What was striking was that there was no mention of the deficit. We now know that he meant to mention it, but forgot. It's so easy to forget the most pressing issue affecting the country today. Immigrations was forgotten too. Another doorstep high priority.
Talking of a current issue which Labour has no answer to, the impact of devolution and English votes for English laws, Mr Miliband said David Cameron was trying to divide the nation.
Since the referendum I have felt more and more incensed by repeated claims that we shouldn't rush the answer, and have some constitutional convention. Who rushed into lots of devolution as soon as they were elected last time? Labour. They created this monster of an issue and did not bother to seek out answers to the unbalanced state they created in 13 years of power. It's because it suited them to brush it under the carpet. It's extremely rich for them now to accuse the Tories of trying to solve this problem to their advantage!
Anyway, back to the speech. Oh must I? If this man is Prime Minister next May I may have to go on Prozac. He's the least impressive leader since Iain Duncan-Smith.
Squiffy.
By the way, funny that Rachel Reeves, shadow pension secretary didn't know what the standard state pension was - she thought it was just below £100. I fact it's £113. You'd think she'd know. Yesterday she seemed to not quite know the difference between capital and current spending. This lady is supposed to be in the next group to be leader. Give me strength.
Thursday, 18 September 2014
Indyref: The time is nearly upon us
We don't have many referendums in the UK but usually they are for big questions. The referendum today is the biggest I've experienced.
I'm still convinced that it will be a No vote, but maybe closer than my prediction of 60/40, maybe even 55/45. We shall soon see.
The mammoth TV coverage will soon start, and I'm a sucker for it!
Bring it on MrDimbleby Edwards.
Squiffy.
I'm still convinced that it will be a No vote, but maybe closer than my prediction of 60/40, maybe even 55/45. We shall soon see.
The mammoth TV coverage will soon start, and I'm a sucker for it!
Bring it on Mr
Squiffy.
Sunday, 14 September 2014
Scottish Independence: One week to go.
We're into the last few days of the Scottish Independence referendum and I thought I'd write some of my thoughts down.
Firstly, about the question. I heard some people asking why 'Devo-Max' is not on the ballot paper. Imagine a not too unlikely scenario where Independence gets 45%, 'Devo-Max' gets 40% and no change gets 15%. What should happen then? It would be wrong to go to Independence as it would not have a majority (on something so crucial). 'Devo-Max' would have come second so it would be weird for it to be enacted, and so the most likely thing to happen would be no change, when it came third! That's why it had to be a straightforward yes/no question.
I personally don't want Scotland to leave the Union, I have many Scottish friends who would then be foreigners. It's difficult to imagine the end of Britain as we know it. I do believe that we are better together.
Looking at the arguments, it appears that the Yes camp have been a bit disingenuous with some of the figures regarding oil revenues, NHS spending etc. and tax figures. The No camp has been more negative, which I suppose was always likely given the nature of the question and risks involved. The better arguments for Yes are through self-determination which appeals to the heart.
The No camp has focused on the question of the currency, which is important - especially as the Yes campaign has stated they intend to use the Pound in a currency union with residual UK (rUK). The UK party leaders have said they won't allow it, but the SNP keep pushing that it will happen anyway. This is especially disingenuous as the rUK would not enter a currency union with a foreign nation, as we have shied away from joining the Euro area. The SNP should have had the nerve to go with a new currency as a backup option.
The implications on the military are immense and not thought through well enough.
Alec Salmond has also repeatedly talked about policies implemented by London by the Tories such as the 'Bedroom Tax' as reasons for independence but that is very short term. Some people think that Scotland would be a socialist haven if independence occurred, but I can see that Scottish politics would eventually move rightwards, as socialist policies increasingly failed and taxing and spending went out of fashion. For the rest of the UK, we may have more Tory Governments initially but the present equilibrium would eventually reassert itself.
Do I think there will be a Yes vote? No, I think the fear of the unknown is a major driver, also I believe that there are quite a lot of people who say they'll vote Yes but will actually vote No - due to the perceived disloyalty of voting 'against Scotland'.
That does not mean that the status quo will remain. If we do get 'Devo-Max' as promised by the UK party leaders there will have to be wider constitutional change for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Wales will certainly demand more powers, and how can England continue to be Governed by Scots and Welsh MPs in such circumstances? There's no way it could continue without the so-called West Lothian question being answered. There would have to be an English Parliament over English only issues.
The days of the existing Union is over, we need to fully think out the future of a more federal UK and this must be put to the people. It cannot be knocked up by the party leaders in a hasty fashion to scare off the Yes voters!
RIP GB 1707-2014.
Squiffy.
Firstly, about the question. I heard some people asking why 'Devo-Max' is not on the ballot paper. Imagine a not too unlikely scenario where Independence gets 45%, 'Devo-Max' gets 40% and no change gets 15%. What should happen then? It would be wrong to go to Independence as it would not have a majority (on something so crucial). 'Devo-Max' would have come second so it would be weird for it to be enacted, and so the most likely thing to happen would be no change, when it came third! That's why it had to be a straightforward yes/no question.
I personally don't want Scotland to leave the Union, I have many Scottish friends who would then be foreigners. It's difficult to imagine the end of Britain as we know it. I do believe that we are better together.
Looking at the arguments, it appears that the Yes camp have been a bit disingenuous with some of the figures regarding oil revenues, NHS spending etc. and tax figures. The No camp has been more negative, which I suppose was always likely given the nature of the question and risks involved. The better arguments for Yes are through self-determination which appeals to the heart.
The No camp has focused on the question of the currency, which is important - especially as the Yes campaign has stated they intend to use the Pound in a currency union with residual UK (rUK). The UK party leaders have said they won't allow it, but the SNP keep pushing that it will happen anyway. This is especially disingenuous as the rUK would not enter a currency union with a foreign nation, as we have shied away from joining the Euro area. The SNP should have had the nerve to go with a new currency as a backup option.
The implications on the military are immense and not thought through well enough.
Alec Salmond has also repeatedly talked about policies implemented by London by the Tories such as the 'Bedroom Tax' as reasons for independence but that is very short term. Some people think that Scotland would be a socialist haven if independence occurred, but I can see that Scottish politics would eventually move rightwards, as socialist policies increasingly failed and taxing and spending went out of fashion. For the rest of the UK, we may have more Tory Governments initially but the present equilibrium would eventually reassert itself.
Do I think there will be a Yes vote? No, I think the fear of the unknown is a major driver, also I believe that there are quite a lot of people who say they'll vote Yes but will actually vote No - due to the perceived disloyalty of voting 'against Scotland'.
That does not mean that the status quo will remain. If we do get 'Devo-Max' as promised by the UK party leaders there will have to be wider constitutional change for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Wales will certainly demand more powers, and how can England continue to be Governed by Scots and Welsh MPs in such circumstances? There's no way it could continue without the so-called West Lothian question being answered. There would have to be an English Parliament over English only issues.
The days of the existing Union is over, we need to fully think out the future of a more federal UK and this must be put to the people. It cannot be knocked up by the party leaders in a hasty fashion to scare off the Yes voters!
RIP GB 1707-2014.
Squiffy.
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