Is Labour about to make a big error?

This morning's Indy has a report saying that Labour are going to go into the next election promising higher spending than the Tories.

They may be able to make the case but it's a difficult one for most people to understand. The Tories claim that you can't borrow yourself out of a debt crisis and it is a simple message that most people understand (even though its not always true).

I think, given the economic climate, that it would be a bad mistake. Most people think Labour spent too much before the last election, and have lost some economic credibility. To not try to regain that credibility is an error.

It is looking like they might make the 1992 election mistake again, when they promised higher taxes against the backdrop of recession.

Could this be the moment the polls turn?

Squiffy.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

George Galloway: Is this the most odious man in Britain today?

George Galloway has been on our TV screens today decrying that PMQs have be cancelled for this week, as many politicians will be at Baroness Thatcher's funeral. It's the latest outpouring of bile from the MP since saying they should 'tramp the dirt down', and from the party laughingly calling itself Respect.


He even had the temerity to have a go saying that she was a friend of dictators. Er, hello? Is this the same George Galloway who told Saddam Hussein that "Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability" and went on to justify the invasion of Kuwait.

The hypocracy and nastiness of the man knows no bounds. To now try to stop PMQs being cancelled, in order to stop MPs attending the funeral is beyond spiteful. He's a disgrace. I hope the people of Bradford can finally see what mistake they made when they elected this odious individual.

Squiffy.

The F1 season is under way, and the fun continues

We've now had three races and three winners. Similar pattern to last year: drivers complaining about tyres, no team showing outright consistent pace and Webber with bad luck.

The Ferrari is definitely looking like it will give the Red Bull a run this year. The Mercedes is fast over one lap but inconsistent over a race distance and the McLaren has some major problems.

It's funny how relaxed Lewis Hamilton is now looking, especially when he sees the problems McLaren are having. It will seem that he made the right decision, though I think it is probably too early to tell. It does seem, however, that McLaren only make good cars every other year, with one exception. The good cars for the last decade have been in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012, so maybe it was astute to jump ship for 2013!

I do hope that Lewis will win a few races this year, he's only 12 points behind and maybe they can make a championship challenge if they can make a couple of tenths for the race. He would certainly be surprised.

In Malaysia we had the Vettel/Webber falling out. It has been coming for a while. It is clear that the two have not got on for years and now it is all out war. I do now expect them to trip each other up, such is the animosity. It could be their undoing for this year, and maybe this is Alonso's chance.

It's a real shame that Williams haven't made the step forward I hoped, I really want them back in the big league consistently.

Anyway, just some idle thoughts.

Squiffy.

Mrs T: The best peace time PM we've had in the last century

It's a sad day, Lady Thatcher has died. In my opinion, she was the best PM we've had since World War 2.

Her achievements as the first female leader of a major political party and then the first PM are too numerous to mention, but I will give the headlines: Ending the cold war, winning the Falklands war, smashing the power of the unions, privatising loss making industries, lowering tax rates, bringing in an entrepreneur economy, beating inflation and lastly reforming the Labour party.

There will be many tributes and some people will be spiteful (which says more about them than the great Lady). For me, she was the other lady in my life aside from my mother while I was growing up. I saw the country go from a clapped out basket-case, the sick-man of Europe, to a European giant alongside German and France. She put the Great back into Britain.

Of course she made mistakes. The Poll tax shouldn't have happened, trying to be fair by making everyone have a share in making their local council work for them, she forgot about the ability to pay. She shouldn't have touched it. She should have tackled welfare, which is now being tackled 30 years later. Grant maintained schools should have been a first term priority and then they would have been bedded down much earlier, before Labour reversed them then brought them back as Academies.

She became too strident with colleagues and when she did one last time their patience broke, on top of the Poll tax unpopularity she was defeated by her own party.

The great that she did will far outweigh these mistakes for they were and can be overcome. The turning around of Britain will never be forgotten. Of this she can be proud.

Rest in peace Mrs T, I'm raising a glass to the life of a brilliant politician and true patriot.

Squiffy.

Morrissey says gays don't go to war

<p>I love the Smiths, and I also think that Morrissey is a genius with lyrics. As a Tory, I would no doubt get a load of crap my way for liking the Smiths from members of band, but how would I do as gay? I believe in self responsibility and great shoes! Buying your own shots and being fabulous while knocking them back. But I also thought the Smiths talked to me when I felt lonely, an odd one out, while I was coming out. </p>
<p>I'm still an odd one out, a gay Tory. Being both loved and hated by members of the band I revere.<br></p>
<p>Which brings me to Morrissey's latest pronouncement.

Maybe he thinks that the modern day gay man, out, proud and happy with himself will not go to war, and he might be on to something. But some of the most bloodthirsty people in history have been closeted gays who think showing masculinity by killing folk will show they're real men. The ultimate diversion tactic, has slain many people. Think Alexander the Great and you get the idea. In Britain we have Edward II and William II as examples as gay men not afraid to go to war.

The argument should not be that gays don't go to war, but gays comfortable with themselves don't go to war. There's not much worse than closeted gays, as history in politics and religion shows. Hypocrisy and bigotry abound.

Gays are as strong and angry as everyone else, until they find the thing that makes them angry. Mr Morrissey, please weave that into your next lyric.

Squiffy

Eastleigh: the aftermath

After the Eastleigh by-election, there will be a lot of guff spoken. It's the same after every election bar the general.

The Lib Dems did well to win, they are great local campaigners and once they get a foothold in an area they are hard to shift! UKIP did spectacularly well to come from nowhere to second. It was disappointing for the Tories and Labour.

That's the headlines. Underneath though it's quite interesting. UKIP have now become the party of protest, which should be worrying for Labour. If the public run for a party with only one recognisable politician and policy when the Government is so unpopular, and that person is not the leader of the opposition then the opposition is doing something wrong. The Labour party made no headway, and they should be in these circumstances.

It's a bit worrying for the Tories, but they are the prime governing party and so it would generally be unusual for them to win a seat when in midterm unpopularity. The Chris Huhne and Lord Rennard affairs didn't seem to have much effect and did not benefit the Tories. The Lib Dems may do worse in a general election though.

I would be surprised to see UKIP use this as a real springboard for national elections. They are still a party of protest with one known popular policy. The rest of the policies do not stand up to scrutiny, lots of tax cuts and more spending make the Labour party look economically sound. Voters thinking of going for UKIP who actually want a referendum would be better going for David Cameron's deal of a referendum after the next election.

The Tories should be worried that UKIP will pull enough votes to put Ed Miliband in number 10. And UKIPs should think again because Ed Miliband will never give a referendum (because he'll lose). Tory headbangers should beware a lurch to the right though, it will never win over the electorate.

Squiffy.

David Cameron has played a blinder

<p>The last few weeks David Cameron has been on top form, he made a fantastic speech on Europe with the promise of a referendum, he's said a big yes to gay marriage and he's secured an EU budget cut. These are big moments for the country's future economically and socially. </p>
<p>The referendum pledge is a slow burner that will be a big problem for Labour and Lib Dems whilst uniting the Tory benches. Ed Miliband has a big problem on his hands, and he has been very quiet recently. I think he'll have to agree to the referendum himself after some gnashing of teeth.

The PM also pushed through the gay marriage vote against vocal opposition and this will be remembered in years to come. He is a social liberal and that's exactly where the modern Tory party needs to be.

Finally, he delivered a budget cut when all were predicting a small rise for the EU. All those saying that Britain is isolated can now reevaluate. Ed Miliband wants to claim some credit, but we know his vote for a reduction was cynical and that he would have surrendered, just like Tony Blair!

Overall, and a great month for the PM.

Squiffy

2013 predictions: a bit late

It's been a very busy January for me and so I've not had any time to blog recently. I will try to resume now with more regular blog posts. And to start off, lets have a look at my predictions for the remaining 11 months.

1. The economy will really start to recover, growing by 1% overall this year.
2. Along with the economy, the Government's fortunes will improve slightly. Polls at the end of the year will be around 38% Labour, 34% Tory, 12% LibDem, 8% UKIP.
3. Chris Huhne will not go to prison, but he will not return to Government either.
4. Fernando Alonso will win the World Championship, from Sebastien Vettel.
5. Lewis Hamilton will win at least one race this year in his new Mercedes.
6. Andrew Mitchell will be exonerated of 'plebgate' and the officer who made the allegations will be found out. Mr Mitchell will return to Government in a mini reshuffle in the late summer.
7. Kate Middleton's baby will be a girl and will carry the name of Elizabeth and Diana in some order.
8. There will be a monetary scandal involving a cabinet minister forcing them to resign.
9. David Miliband will agree to join the Labour front bench.
10. The Eurozone will have a fresh crisis in September when everyone is convinced the problems have been solved.

Let's see what comes true.

Squiffy.

Last year's predictions

Every year I make some predictions and then see how well I do. Here's what I predicted for 2012 and how I mark it.

1. At least one country, probably Greece, will exit the Euro. The Euro will survive though. 0 points.
2. Ed Miliband will have another bad year, though the talk will be of being replaced by Yvette Cooper. 0 points
3. Britain will win around 24 golds at the Olympics. 1 point, quite close
4. The Diamond Jubilee will be a great success and provide a bounce to the coalition of around 5% in the opinion polls. 1/2 point.
5. Sebastien Vettel will win his third World Championship, closely from Lewis Hamilton. 1 point
6. Chris Huhne will resign from the Government when facing charges of speeding & perjury. 1 point
7. A reshuffle will see David Laws make a return to Government. 1 point
8. In the Euro 2012 championship, England will get knocked out in the quarter finals. 1 point
9. Mitt Romney will face Barrack Obama in the presidential election, and Obama will win. 1 point
10. The polls will remain similar to now, Tories 39%, Labour 42%, LibDem 12%. 1/2 point, Labour correct, Tories and LDs overestimated
11. Boris will win the London Mayoral election, defeating Ken by 6%. 1 point

8 points out of 11, not bad really.

Tomorrow, I'll do my 2013 predictions.

Squiffy.

Why is it okay to hate Tories?

There are rules in this country against inciting hatred. It can lead to a custodial sentence.

It's ok to hate Tories though. I know that because on the BBC News Quiz, two panellists announced their hatred in the first five minutes. This is the unbiased license fee funded BBC. Left wing comedians think it's ok to hate forty percent of the population.

Right wing people don't doubt the motives of left wing people just their methods, the reverse is not true. The 'compassionate' left show real hatred. How nice.

Squiffy.

"The poor didn't cause this problem..."

The title of this post is a statement often used when left wingers complain about austerity, and it is obviously true that the poor did not directly cause the financial crisis.

It must be noted, however, that we were running one of the largest structural deficits of the developed world before the financial crisis. Had we not run a deficit we may have been able to get y without an austerity drive. The reason for the deficit was due to excessive Government spending, and where was all this spending targeted? Quite rightly at the poor and needy.

The last Government created many tax credits and systems which meant that more people and families became dependent on Government benefits. Unfortunately, this means that when there is a squeeze, because the country has run out of money, the benefits are going to have to be squeezed too as it has become a larger part of Government spending.

The present Government wants to take people out of benefits but tax them less, so that they keep more of their own money before depending on the state for handouts. The Universal credit will be a great way of making work pay too.

Just don't always take simple phrases at face value.

Squiffy.

Go out and vote for your Police Commissioner

In the next few days there will be elections for police commissioners. Going from having an invisible police authority to an identifiable person holding the police to account is a big change and one that I support.

Unfortunately there will be a lot of politicos calling it a failure, mainly due to the fact that turn-out will be low. It's pretty much guaranteed as it's not been well publicised and I blame the Government for this, even though it's their policy. And I blame the Lib Dems for having the election in November rather than next May at the same time as local elections. It costs more and will then be seen as a failure on low turn-out. Sometimes the LDs are the most cynical of all!

Don't believe when they tell you that it is a failure. Over the next years each police commissioner will get air time in your local areas. They will get blamed for lots of problems and there will be lots of independent minded people stepping out to challenge at the next elections. Mark my words that turn out will be higher next time round, it will build and these positions will become more important.

We don't have elections in London but I implore you to find out who is standing who represents your views and make sure you go out to vote. It will be important.

Squiffy.

Some common sense is needed...otherwise it's just reckless

Mark Reckless MP has launched his proposal to reduce the EU budget. The Prime Minister's position is to call for a real terms freeze.

Personally, I'd love the see the EU budget reduced but I'd don't think it is possible. There are too many other countries which will not accept the position whereas there's quite a few influential countries who will stick by the real term freeze. We have to be realistic and if we go in with an unrealistic prospect we will just have to use the veto. If we veto then the budget will go up two percent, and we run the risk of future budgets being decided by qualified majority voting.

It's also playing into the Labour party hands. They've leapt onto this as a way of causing problems for the PM, they're not a real believer in lower budgets - otherwise they wouldn't have built up a huge structural deficit. Also at the last negotiation, they willingly gave up £5 Bn annual rebate for a supposed reduction of the CAP budget - which of course was never going to happen. They're just being cynical.

So let's be serious, stick to the freeze and hope we can push it through.We're going to have to reserve our vetos for the point when we have to threaten to stop further integration without a looser arrangement for the UK within an EEC type Europe.

We have to play this smart.

Squiffy.

If it's Merkel To Cameron, you're muppets - then bring it on!

It's been reported that Angela Merkel has compared David Cameron and Britain to Statler and Waldorf from the muppets. We're always grumbling and being obstructive.

Too right! Yes, we grumble. The reason we grumble is that no-one under the age of 50 has had a say on the terms of our EU membership, and those that did get to vote in the 1975 referendum believed they were voting to stay in an economic union. Only a few in 1975 believed we were on a never ending story of integration and submission to an unelected bureaucracy.

We are now at a crunch point. Our politicians in the UK are also coming to that conclusion. We now have an administration which on the whole wants to change the status quo. Although the core of the EU is trying to head to some federal system, probably without consulting the EU population, as is their way. We know we don't want it.

Finally the EU leaders, such as the German Chancellor, have realised that they can't just shove what they want past the UK PM and have come to the conclusion that there will need to be a two speed Europe. There's even talk of a separate budget for Eurozone members.

Hurrah, it's what a lot of us has been saying for a long time. Finally the EU elite is coming into line with the general population. It's taken about 20 years, but sense may finally be about to break out. We may finally get to be in a sphere like the old EEC, pity the poor countries which will not have a say.

It will still take several years though!

Squiffy.

Ed Balls: Zero Based Policy

Exactly. A way to have no policy.

Ed Balls has announced the adoption of Stella Creasy's policy of deciding Government spending by starting at zero and justifying every line item of spending. Brilliant, I love the policy - exactly the right thing to do. It should happen every time a Government comes in.

But, and it's a big but. I don't believe Ed Balls sincerity to the policy. I don't believe that he thinks that every item of public spending needs to be justified in this way. I think it is a happy diversion for every question about what Labour would cut. Remember this when Ed Balls is interviewed, the question will come "What would you cut?", the answer will come "I've announced that we will look through every existing spending decision on its merits, we will not announce our plans until we have looked through the books".

It is the perfect device in order to have no policy. So, call my cynical, but I don't believe that Spender Balls is really committed to reducing the deficit and justifying every single element of spending.

Squiffy.

Lewis to Mercedes: Good or Bad

Only time will tell.

I feel a little sad that Lewis Hamilton has decided to move from McLaren to Mercedes. I know a lot of Lewis fans will also, indeed it's a little like Nigel Mansell moving from Williams to Ferrari for 1989 or Jensen Button moving from Brawn to McLaren for 2010. Feels like the end of an era, and indeed it is. The all British team (just about) is over.

It feels like the wrong decision. McLaren creates cars that wins GPs nearly every year, it knows how to win, and at the moment it has the fastest car - so why would he leave?

Look at it from Lewis's point of view, though, and you may come to some different conclusions. McLaren has not won the drivers championship since 2008 (Brawn in 2009), and has not won the constructors championship since 1999 (Brawn in 2009). This year McLaren have had the best car for most of the season, barring a few races mid-season, and yet, even with Lewis driving magnificently, Lewis is 52 points behind Fernando Alonso in the championship. Pit-stop cock ups, bad performance on wet tyres, a major mess up in Barcelona qualifying, and a little unreliability have nearly destroyed his championship.

Even though McLaren know how to win races, they are a bit rusty on winning championships - the days of 1989 are long gone. Ross Brawn has much more recent experience of running a consistent championship contender.

Look to the future. In 2014 there is a new engine formula and the Mercedes engine could be the best one and gelled with a Mercedes chassis, designed so well for it, could be the class of the field. McLaren will be a customer team and might not have so privileged access to the data. There's rumours of Vodafone leaving McLaren too, probably hastened by Lewis's departure. Mercedes has also hired some big names this year; Aldo Costa from Ferrari and Bob Bell from Renault. They could be just about to set the world alight, whereas McLaren tend to build a good car every other year.

I think it's likely that the McLaren and Mercedes offers were pretty similar in monetary terms with a little more branding opportunities at Mercedes, but I don't think this is the crux of Lewis's motivation to move. An article on Autosport struck me as very pertinent. The essence of the article is that Lewis has grown up with McLaren, it's a parent-child relationship and now it's time for Lewis to break out and become an 'adult'. A good point made was that in 2007 Hamilton was on the verge of winning the championship on his first attempt in China and was kept out on very visible thread-bare tyres. I remember shouting at the TV screen for 5 laps that he should go into the pits and McLaren kept him out. That must rankle with him, he should have definitely won that championship. We know Lewis believes he should have won more than his solitary championship.

The relationship has soured in the last few years a little. There was the lying row in Australia a few years back, and there has been friction about Lewis's use of twitter. You may call this the teen years.

Once the parent-child relationship is formed, it's pretty difficult to break free (as any child returning to the parents would know) until you leave home. And as anyone knows, you can always return home and who knows Lewis may one day return home, calling the shots, as did Nigel Mansell.

But as I say, only time will tell.

Squiffy.

Forza Monza

or Force Monza!

I was lucky to be at the Italian GP two weekends ago. It was spectacular. Deep in a country park you find this incredible circuit of speed.

I managed to view the old banking - which would be terrifying in a modern car, or anything to be honest! The atmosphere was electric, the weather was hot, the tifosi devoted and action unstoppable.

Enough superlatives. It was better organised than Silverstone, you didn't need to wait more than 5 minutes waiting for a bus to take you between Monza train station and circuit, likewise on the way back. I was surprised that McLaren had a great deal of support - lots of Lewis and Jenson fans. It was great to be able to invade the track afterwards - and funny to watch guys taking away the polystyrene bollards at the first corner.

It was fantastic that Lewis won too, so shortly after his family bereavement. He was on it all weekend, and deserved the win.

A brilliant weekend. As Murray used to say, Faaantastic.

Squiffy.

Clegg was right to apologise

Nick Clegg has apologised for the tuition fees debacle.

Not for the U-turn, or for the policy, but for the fact that he promised to remove tuition fees in the first place. It is, finally, a moment when the Lib Dem leader has fully grown up. Hopefully the Lib Dems will follow.

For all my life, I have got used to the third party making rash promises, not tied down to the realities of possible Government. It was annoying to see the holier than thou, purer than pure attitude through the years - promising anything without a care. Safe in the knowledge that it would come to nothing. Every election they would say they would go into it to win and not talk about coalitions.

The last election taught a valuable lesson. You must have realistic costed policies. You must never make an absolute promise you are not certain to keep. As the third party your main chance is through coalitions so you need to take other party's manifestos into account. Nick Clegg has learnt this lesson, but I suspect the sandal wearers will have trouble adjusting to this, as they have to the nature of coalition (likewise the right wing Tory headbangers).

Unfortunately, I don't expect the grown up attitude to continue into the Lib Dem conference! There will be more grandstanding and unrealism.

Squiffy.

Virgin: What short memories people have!

The Downing Street petition to have Virgin Rail re-instated as the franchise holder of the West Coast Main Line has now reached 100,000 people. That's pretty impressive, especially for a private company involved in railways.

It does amaze me, however, why so many people have jumped on the bandwagon. It was only 10 years ago or so, that Virgin had a really bad name when it came to railways. It was the company cited by comedians and others when trying to point out that the railways were in a mess. Now it's all turned around, which is fantastic for Virgin.

I must say that I was always impressed by Virgin's commitment to give a good service on the troublesome West Coast. So, I am a little sad that Virgin lost out. The worry is that First Group will give a worse service, after all it's been panned for the service on the Great Western line. But one has to remember that the service provided is dependent on the state of the track, and whereas the West Coast has had a lot of investment, the Great Western has been neglected. This also explain's Virgin's turnaround in fortunes.

People are also wistful about the old British Rail. They also forget how bad it was. Years of under investment with old trains and bad service. The British Rail soggy sandwich was its emblem! Privatisation enabled new investors to enter. Now we ride new trains. New services like Great Central give variance to the old ways of doing things. It's not a coincidence that passengers numbers increased year on year since privatisation in 1995. We now have the most number of passenger journeys on railways since World War 2, probably ever:

So let's have a little perspective! Good luck to Virgin and First Group in the future. Thankfully the Great Western is about to get a lot if investment.Hopefully Virgin can take on the Great Western franchise!

Squiffy

Resolve

Today the borrowing figures showed that we borrowed £600 million for the last month, in fact for July we'd normally see a surplus. It gave me a jolt, but we need to have some resolve. Remember that you cannot borrow yourself out of debt.

The economy will come good, the GDP figures do not add up, employment is growing. If only George Michael had sung Faith at the Olympics closing ceremony and not his new one. We need to keep the faith.

Squiffy.