It's Red Egg

Today Ed Miliband was hit by eggs. It's pretty symbolic of the Labour party in the last few weeks, as MP after commentator after MP has thrown eggy suggestions to the leader of the opposition.

It has been a turnaround in fortunes for the two parties, the first change since the Omnishambles budget. The polls have narrowed but not quite turned yet, but there is a new trend setting in and Mr Miliband needs to change the narrative quickly. The story at the moment is of drift, no clear message and wavering policies.

A shadow reshuffle is in the offing and shadow ministers have been silent over the summer and when they have spoken up, like Chris Bryant, they've made a hash of it. The rumour is that Ed Miliband has been focussing on his conference speech, but a speech rarely changes the national mood, and while he has been silent the Government has been making hay (which is usually the opposition's job in summer).

It appears that the uptick in the economy is obliterating the Labour message of 'cutting too fast and too soon' and the public are now swinging behind the cuts more firmly. It's funny that the biggest cuts were enacted this April and so if the cuts were going to have an effect on the economy, you'd expect a contraction - in fact there was further expansion. It seems confidence and Europe have been a bigger factor. Anyway, the new Labour message is about the cost of living. They won't tell you has been getting worse since 2005, never mind the biggest recession since the depression.

The next few weeks and months will be interesting...

Just as an aside, the BBC are referring to today's German growth figures of 0.7% as strong, but referred to the UK's of 0.6% as weak. Bias? I couldn't say.

Squiffy.

It is summer, so Felipe Massa's position is under threat

For the third year running Felipe Massa's seat is under threat. The rumour this year is that Ferrari may decide to lure Kimi Raikkonen away from Lotus to replace the Brazilian. This would be a strange turnaround, after all Ferrari paid Raikkonen off to get him out of his contract to bring Fernando Alonso in. They chose Massa over Raikkonen.

It has become transparently clear, though, that Massa is on borrowed time. Either his injury, or the latest selection of tyres has stopped him being ultimately competitive and there has only been one occasion when he has threatened for a win, when he was forced aside as Rob Smedley delivered the line 'Fernando is faster than you'.

The yearly discussion over whether Massa should retain the Ferrari seat is as predictable as snow messing up the railways. It's clear that Massa is not pushing Alonso, he won't be in a position to challenge for the championship and Ferrari's constructors championship points are being hampered by the Number 2's side of the garage. They need a stronger driver.

Whether that is Raikkonen I don't know. He likes it at Lotus where they let him live his life as he wants. Also, he is also wanted by Red Bull, and the Alonso to Red Bull, Raikkonen to Ferrari rumours may be just bargaining tools from both sides of the Red Bull/Raikkonen deal. In which case Ferrari should go for Di Resta, Hulkenburg or Bianchi.

It would be good to see Raikkonen at Red Bull to give Vettel a good challenge, but I think Lotus needs him more than he needs them so they may try hard to convince him to stay. Also there is the fact that what is the Red Bull young driver programme for if it doesn't deliver drivers into the senior team. Daniel Ricciardo is a good driver and we still have to see whether he has what it takes - so to encourage other young drivers maybe they should keep the faith.

Where does this leave Massa? He's still a good driver, and maybe he could end up at Lotus or a third stint at Sauber. But it's time to end the yearly Massa-hunt.

Squiffy.

Lies, Damned lies, and statistical revisions

As I predicted in an earlier post, the double dip recession has now vanished. The revisions have removed them from history. At the same time, and even worse for Labour, the first recession has been revised to be even worse. So the recovery is harder to take hold.

Earlier in the week we heard that the deficit had slightly increased for 2012/13, and Labour were all over it. But remember revisions! The 2011/12 deficit was revised down more than the 2012/13 deficit and so it appeared to increase, but just like 2011/12 was revised down this year so can 2012/13 next year keeping the downward trend. The good news is that the deficit is being revised down rather than up.

Things seem to be improving at the moment, and I think it will continue. I expect growth to be nearer 1.5% this year, and the deficit to reduce further than official expectations. I really hope so!


Squiffy.

We escaped triple dip, we could still escape double dip

Last year we entered a double dip recession. Or did we?

Like a bureaucratic tardis, the ONS may be about to revise the figures for Q4 2011, Q1 and Q2 2012 so that the double dip becomes a figment of our imagination. It looks like one quarter only has to be revised upwards from - 0.07 to break the double dip.

If it does happen I hope the news outlets, BBC specifically, will give the same prominence to the news as it did to the news of the imaginary double dip... Some hope!

Squiffy.

Let UKIP be the protest vote, and not the vote of the right

Tonight and tomorrow we'll find out how well UKIP did in the local elections. I think they'll get just over 20 percent.

People of the left, and right and centre are voting for UKIP as a protest, which is fine. There always needs to be a party to represent protest, it used to be the Lib Dems but not now they're in Government. But anyone who classifies themselves as someone of the right and seriously thoughtful, should consider the policies and implications.

A vote for UKIP is a vote for tax cuts and extra spending to the tune of £60 a year. Margaret Thatcher wanted to balance the books, and Nigel Farage is not her heir. They will accelerate this country's descent into a debt abys. If the only reason is for a vote for a UK exit from the EU, then the likely outcome is a Labour Government which will not give you a chance to have your say. If you are centre right vote Tory, not for the fantasists.

Squiffy

Is Labour about to make a big error?

This morning's Indy has a report saying that Labour are going to go into the next election promising higher spending than the Tories.

They may be able to make the case but it's a difficult one for most people to understand. The Tories claim that you can't borrow yourself out of a debt crisis and it is a simple message that most people understand (even though its not always true).

I think, given the economic climate, that it would be a bad mistake. Most people think Labour spent too much before the last election, and have lost some economic credibility. To not try to regain that credibility is an error.

It is looking like they might make the 1992 election mistake again, when they promised higher taxes against the backdrop of recession.

Could this be the moment the polls turn?

Squiffy.


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George Galloway: Is this the most odious man in Britain today?

George Galloway has been on our TV screens today decrying that PMQs have be cancelled for this week, as many politicians will be at Baroness Thatcher's funeral. It's the latest outpouring of bile from the MP since saying they should 'tramp the dirt down', and from the party laughingly calling itself Respect.


He even had the temerity to have a go saying that she was a friend of dictators. Er, hello? Is this the same George Galloway who told Saddam Hussein that "Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability" and went on to justify the invasion of Kuwait.

The hypocracy and nastiness of the man knows no bounds. To now try to stop PMQs being cancelled, in order to stop MPs attending the funeral is beyond spiteful. He's a disgrace. I hope the people of Bradford can finally see what mistake they made when they elected this odious individual.

Squiffy.

The F1 season is under way, and the fun continues

We've now had three races and three winners. Similar pattern to last year: drivers complaining about tyres, no team showing outright consistent pace and Webber with bad luck.

The Ferrari is definitely looking like it will give the Red Bull a run this year. The Mercedes is fast over one lap but inconsistent over a race distance and the McLaren has some major problems.

It's funny how relaxed Lewis Hamilton is now looking, especially when he sees the problems McLaren are having. It will seem that he made the right decision, though I think it is probably too early to tell. It does seem, however, that McLaren only make good cars every other year, with one exception. The good cars for the last decade have been in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012, so maybe it was astute to jump ship for 2013!

I do hope that Lewis will win a few races this year, he's only 12 points behind and maybe they can make a championship challenge if they can make a couple of tenths for the race. He would certainly be surprised.

In Malaysia we had the Vettel/Webber falling out. It has been coming for a while. It is clear that the two have not got on for years and now it is all out war. I do now expect them to trip each other up, such is the animosity. It could be their undoing for this year, and maybe this is Alonso's chance.

It's a real shame that Williams haven't made the step forward I hoped, I really want them back in the big league consistently.

Anyway, just some idle thoughts.

Squiffy.

Mrs T: The best peace time PM we've had in the last century

It's a sad day, Lady Thatcher has died. In my opinion, she was the best PM we've had since World War 2.

Her achievements as the first female leader of a major political party and then the first PM are too numerous to mention, but I will give the headlines: Ending the cold war, winning the Falklands war, smashing the power of the unions, privatising loss making industries, lowering tax rates, bringing in an entrepreneur economy, beating inflation and lastly reforming the Labour party.

There will be many tributes and some people will be spiteful (which says more about them than the great Lady). For me, she was the other lady in my life aside from my mother while I was growing up. I saw the country go from a clapped out basket-case, the sick-man of Europe, to a European giant alongside German and France. She put the Great back into Britain.

Of course she made mistakes. The Poll tax shouldn't have happened, trying to be fair by making everyone have a share in making their local council work for them, she forgot about the ability to pay. She shouldn't have touched it. She should have tackled welfare, which is now being tackled 30 years later. Grant maintained schools should have been a first term priority and then they would have been bedded down much earlier, before Labour reversed them then brought them back as Academies.

She became too strident with colleagues and when she did one last time their patience broke, on top of the Poll tax unpopularity she was defeated by her own party.

The great that she did will far outweigh these mistakes for they were and can be overcome. The turning around of Britain will never be forgotten. Of this she can be proud.

Rest in peace Mrs T, I'm raising a glass to the life of a brilliant politician and true patriot.

Squiffy.

Morrissey says gays don't go to war

<p>I love the Smiths, and I also think that Morrissey is a genius with lyrics. As a Tory, I would no doubt get a load of crap my way for liking the Smiths from members of band, but how would I do as gay? I believe in self responsibility and great shoes! Buying your own shots and being fabulous while knocking them back. But I also thought the Smiths talked to me when I felt lonely, an odd one out, while I was coming out. </p>
<p>I'm still an odd one out, a gay Tory. Being both loved and hated by members of the band I revere.<br></p>
<p>Which brings me to Morrissey's latest pronouncement.

Maybe he thinks that the modern day gay man, out, proud and happy with himself will not go to war, and he might be on to something. But some of the most bloodthirsty people in history have been closeted gays who think showing masculinity by killing folk will show they're real men. The ultimate diversion tactic, has slain many people. Think Alexander the Great and you get the idea. In Britain we have Edward II and William II as examples as gay men not afraid to go to war.

The argument should not be that gays don't go to war, but gays comfortable with themselves don't go to war. There's not much worse than closeted gays, as history in politics and religion shows. Hypocrisy and bigotry abound.

Gays are as strong and angry as everyone else, until they find the thing that makes them angry. Mr Morrissey, please weave that into your next lyric.

Squiffy

Eastleigh: the aftermath

After the Eastleigh by-election, there will be a lot of guff spoken. It's the same after every election bar the general.

The Lib Dems did well to win, they are great local campaigners and once they get a foothold in an area they are hard to shift! UKIP did spectacularly well to come from nowhere to second. It was disappointing for the Tories and Labour.

That's the headlines. Underneath though it's quite interesting. UKIP have now become the party of protest, which should be worrying for Labour. If the public run for a party with only one recognisable politician and policy when the Government is so unpopular, and that person is not the leader of the opposition then the opposition is doing something wrong. The Labour party made no headway, and they should be in these circumstances.

It's a bit worrying for the Tories, but they are the prime governing party and so it would generally be unusual for them to win a seat when in midterm unpopularity. The Chris Huhne and Lord Rennard affairs didn't seem to have much effect and did not benefit the Tories. The Lib Dems may do worse in a general election though.

I would be surprised to see UKIP use this as a real springboard for national elections. They are still a party of protest with one known popular policy. The rest of the policies do not stand up to scrutiny, lots of tax cuts and more spending make the Labour party look economically sound. Voters thinking of going for UKIP who actually want a referendum would be better going for David Cameron's deal of a referendum after the next election.

The Tories should be worried that UKIP will pull enough votes to put Ed Miliband in number 10. And UKIPs should think again because Ed Miliband will never give a referendum (because he'll lose). Tory headbangers should beware a lurch to the right though, it will never win over the electorate.

Squiffy.

David Cameron has played a blinder

<p>The last few weeks David Cameron has been on top form, he made a fantastic speech on Europe with the promise of a referendum, he's said a big yes to gay marriage and he's secured an EU budget cut. These are big moments for the country's future economically and socially. </p>
<p>The referendum pledge is a slow burner that will be a big problem for Labour and Lib Dems whilst uniting the Tory benches. Ed Miliband has a big problem on his hands, and he has been very quiet recently. I think he'll have to agree to the referendum himself after some gnashing of teeth.

The PM also pushed through the gay marriage vote against vocal opposition and this will be remembered in years to come. He is a social liberal and that's exactly where the modern Tory party needs to be.

Finally, he delivered a budget cut when all were predicting a small rise for the EU. All those saying that Britain is isolated can now reevaluate. Ed Miliband wants to claim some credit, but we know his vote for a reduction was cynical and that he would have surrendered, just like Tony Blair!

Overall, and a great month for the PM.

Squiffy

2013 predictions: a bit late

It's been a very busy January for me and so I've not had any time to blog recently. I will try to resume now with more regular blog posts. And to start off, lets have a look at my predictions for the remaining 11 months.

1. The economy will really start to recover, growing by 1% overall this year.
2. Along with the economy, the Government's fortunes will improve slightly. Polls at the end of the year will be around 38% Labour, 34% Tory, 12% LibDem, 8% UKIP.
3. Chris Huhne will not go to prison, but he will not return to Government either.
4. Fernando Alonso will win the World Championship, from Sebastien Vettel.
5. Lewis Hamilton will win at least one race this year in his new Mercedes.
6. Andrew Mitchell will be exonerated of 'plebgate' and the officer who made the allegations will be found out. Mr Mitchell will return to Government in a mini reshuffle in the late summer.
7. Kate Middleton's baby will be a girl and will carry the name of Elizabeth and Diana in some order.
8. There will be a monetary scandal involving a cabinet minister forcing them to resign.
9. David Miliband will agree to join the Labour front bench.
10. The Eurozone will have a fresh crisis in September when everyone is convinced the problems have been solved.

Let's see what comes true.

Squiffy.

Last year's predictions

Every year I make some predictions and then see how well I do. Here's what I predicted for 2012 and how I mark it.

1. At least one country, probably Greece, will exit the Euro. The Euro will survive though. 0 points.
2. Ed Miliband will have another bad year, though the talk will be of being replaced by Yvette Cooper. 0 points
3. Britain will win around 24 golds at the Olympics. 1 point, quite close
4. The Diamond Jubilee will be a great success and provide a bounce to the coalition of around 5% in the opinion polls. 1/2 point.
5. Sebastien Vettel will win his third World Championship, closely from Lewis Hamilton. 1 point
6. Chris Huhne will resign from the Government when facing charges of speeding & perjury. 1 point
7. A reshuffle will see David Laws make a return to Government. 1 point
8. In the Euro 2012 championship, England will get knocked out in the quarter finals. 1 point
9. Mitt Romney will face Barrack Obama in the presidential election, and Obama will win. 1 point
10. The polls will remain similar to now, Tories 39%, Labour 42%, LibDem 12%. 1/2 point, Labour correct, Tories and LDs overestimated
11. Boris will win the London Mayoral election, defeating Ken by 6%. 1 point

8 points out of 11, not bad really.

Tomorrow, I'll do my 2013 predictions.

Squiffy.

Why is it okay to hate Tories?

There are rules in this country against inciting hatred. It can lead to a custodial sentence.

It's ok to hate Tories though. I know that because on the BBC News Quiz, two panellists announced their hatred in the first five minutes. This is the unbiased license fee funded BBC. Left wing comedians think it's ok to hate forty percent of the population.

Right wing people don't doubt the motives of left wing people just their methods, the reverse is not true. The 'compassionate' left show real hatred. How nice.

Squiffy.

"The poor didn't cause this problem..."

The title of this post is a statement often used when left wingers complain about austerity, and it is obviously true that the poor did not directly cause the financial crisis.

It must be noted, however, that we were running one of the largest structural deficits of the developed world before the financial crisis. Had we not run a deficit we may have been able to get y without an austerity drive. The reason for the deficit was due to excessive Government spending, and where was all this spending targeted? Quite rightly at the poor and needy.

The last Government created many tax credits and systems which meant that more people and families became dependent on Government benefits. Unfortunately, this means that when there is a squeeze, because the country has run out of money, the benefits are going to have to be squeezed too as it has become a larger part of Government spending.

The present Government wants to take people out of benefits but tax them less, so that they keep more of their own money before depending on the state for handouts. The Universal credit will be a great way of making work pay too.

Just don't always take simple phrases at face value.

Squiffy.

Go out and vote for your Police Commissioner

In the next few days there will be elections for police commissioners. Going from having an invisible police authority to an identifiable person holding the police to account is a big change and one that I support.

Unfortunately there will be a lot of politicos calling it a failure, mainly due to the fact that turn-out will be low. It's pretty much guaranteed as it's not been well publicised and I blame the Government for this, even though it's their policy. And I blame the Lib Dems for having the election in November rather than next May at the same time as local elections. It costs more and will then be seen as a failure on low turn-out. Sometimes the LDs are the most cynical of all!

Don't believe when they tell you that it is a failure. Over the next years each police commissioner will get air time in your local areas. They will get blamed for lots of problems and there will be lots of independent minded people stepping out to challenge at the next elections. Mark my words that turn out will be higher next time round, it will build and these positions will become more important.

We don't have elections in London but I implore you to find out who is standing who represents your views and make sure you go out to vote. It will be important.

Squiffy.

Some common sense is needed...otherwise it's just reckless

Mark Reckless MP has launched his proposal to reduce the EU budget. The Prime Minister's position is to call for a real terms freeze.

Personally, I'd love the see the EU budget reduced but I'd don't think it is possible. There are too many other countries which will not accept the position whereas there's quite a few influential countries who will stick by the real term freeze. We have to be realistic and if we go in with an unrealistic prospect we will just have to use the veto. If we veto then the budget will go up two percent, and we run the risk of future budgets being decided by qualified majority voting.

It's also playing into the Labour party hands. They've leapt onto this as a way of causing problems for the PM, they're not a real believer in lower budgets - otherwise they wouldn't have built up a huge structural deficit. Also at the last negotiation, they willingly gave up £5 Bn annual rebate for a supposed reduction of the CAP budget - which of course was never going to happen. They're just being cynical.

So let's be serious, stick to the freeze and hope we can push it through.We're going to have to reserve our vetos for the point when we have to threaten to stop further integration without a looser arrangement for the UK within an EEC type Europe.

We have to play this smart.

Squiffy.

If it's Merkel To Cameron, you're muppets - then bring it on!

It's been reported that Angela Merkel has compared David Cameron and Britain to Statler and Waldorf from the muppets. We're always grumbling and being obstructive.

Too right! Yes, we grumble. The reason we grumble is that no-one under the age of 50 has had a say on the terms of our EU membership, and those that did get to vote in the 1975 referendum believed they were voting to stay in an economic union. Only a few in 1975 believed we were on a never ending story of integration and submission to an unelected bureaucracy.

We are now at a crunch point. Our politicians in the UK are also coming to that conclusion. We now have an administration which on the whole wants to change the status quo. Although the core of the EU is trying to head to some federal system, probably without consulting the EU population, as is their way. We know we don't want it.

Finally the EU leaders, such as the German Chancellor, have realised that they can't just shove what they want past the UK PM and have come to the conclusion that there will need to be a two speed Europe. There's even talk of a separate budget for Eurozone members.

Hurrah, it's what a lot of us has been saying for a long time. Finally the EU elite is coming into line with the general population. It's taken about 20 years, but sense may finally be about to break out. We may finally get to be in a sphere like the old EEC, pity the poor countries which will not have a say.

It will still take several years though!

Squiffy.

Ed Balls: Zero Based Policy

Exactly. A way to have no policy.

Ed Balls has announced the adoption of Stella Creasy's policy of deciding Government spending by starting at zero and justifying every line item of spending. Brilliant, I love the policy - exactly the right thing to do. It should happen every time a Government comes in.

But, and it's a big but. I don't believe Ed Balls sincerity to the policy. I don't believe that he thinks that every item of public spending needs to be justified in this way. I think it is a happy diversion for every question about what Labour would cut. Remember this when Ed Balls is interviewed, the question will come "What would you cut?", the answer will come "I've announced that we will look through every existing spending decision on its merits, we will not announce our plans until we have looked through the books".

It is the perfect device in order to have no policy. So, call my cynical, but I don't believe that Spender Balls is really committed to reducing the deficit and justifying every single element of spending.

Squiffy.