Oh my. Britain makes a bad decision

In all my days, the British people have made the right decision at a General Election. This time they haven't.

The result looks like the Tories just shy of a majority, and Labour strengthened. This likely looks like Theresa May will have to resign, and Jeremy Corbyn will stay. That's the wrong way round.

Although the Tory campaign was woeful, I thought the British people would choose a proven pragmatist over an untried idealist.

I was wrong. Like some of the opinion polls. I'm going to stop giving predictions.

A hung parliament at this time, 11 days before the start of Brexit negotiations, leaves the country up in the air. Will Theresa May still be PM, or will there need to be a quick election? Will there have to be a new General Election?

It saddens me that so many of the population were seduced by the Corbyn spending and motherhood and apple pie, thinking that they wouldn't have to pay for it. It's so naive. Maybe letting Labour win and grind the country into the ground will wipe away the hopes of the ideologues, but we'll all suffer.

It will be interesting for the next few hours.

Squiffy.

The polls will open tomorrow

The polls will open tomorrow at the end of this snap election.

It's been an interesting period, but not the most enlightening. I'm not sure we know much more than we did when it was called. It's been a horrific time for the UK with two terrorist attacks too.

What can we draw from this period?

It's been the worst Conservative campaign I can remember. It's not been inspiring, it's not been focused and it's not been leading the news cycles. I remember the days when the Prime Minister would hold a news conference in the morning, and the news at lunch and in the evening would lead with it. That was in the 80's and 90's though. Jeremy Corbyn has been leading the bulletins.

I like Theresa May, but she has been robotic. I don't think she likes the set pieces, but is much better when it is more informal.

Jeremy Corbyn has had a great campaign. I suppose we should expect that: he has been campaigning for 30 years non stop, addressing rallies and protesting. He has done a serious responsible job in Government though and his time as leader of his party (apart from the last few weeks) has been atrocious.

Tim Farron's campaign has been rubbished. They attached themselves to the 50% of the 48% of remainers that want to overturn he result, that's 24% of the electorate. And they're doing worse than that, polls show that at 7%. I cannot remember anything liberal or democratic about their manifesto. The only thing that stands out is 1 pence on income tax and a second referendum. Both are unappealing.

UKIP are nowhere, the greens just annoy.

I was wrong the other week when I thought the Tory campaign would come good, and Corbyn would come a cropper due to his bad temper.

And the polls have narrowed.

But I don't believe them. I think they over-represent the youth, and the Labour areas. Remember to add 3% on the Tory shares, and take 3% from the Labour shares.

I expect tomorrow the vote share will be around Tories 46%, Labour 33%, Lib Dems 13%, UKIP 4%, SNP 4%.

We shall see tomorrow, but it will be an exciting evening (as always). I love elections!

Squiffy.

Election round-up

We're two weeks into the General Election campaign and so I thought I'd give my thoughts on what we've seen.

The Tories have so far had a lacklustre campaign, based solely around Theresa May. There have been very few policy pledges and so far nothing to write home about. I'm wondering if the Tories are keeping their powder dry and will wait for Labour to show their hand before bringing out new policies. For their sake, I hope so. If they are going to win big anyway, it's better if they have a radical manifesto.

The Labour party have shown quite a lot of policies so far, and on the surface they look attractive. More money for NHS workers, more money for schools, more money for police forces to recruit 10000/250000 officers (depending on which paper Diane Aboot is reading), more money for social care. Of course the common theme is "more money". Now the left is in control of Labour they only have one answer for every problem. I wonder what their answer is to the problem of the £50 billion deficit!

The flip side of all the spending, is tax rises. Corporation Tax up, Capital Gains Tax up, Vat on private schools up, Fees on private health care. It's quite easy to see where this is going. The behavioural changes of tax increases means that in the long run, the tax take will be reduced, and so the tax rises will have to spread wider. Corporation tax gong up by a third is certainly going to have an effect. Since it has been reduced the tax take from corporate profits has gone up from £43Bn to £49Bn. No wonder Labour see this as a magic money tree.

The Lib Dems have had a bad start, with a whole week taken over by whether Tim Farron thinks gay sex is a sin. There have been mentions of 1p tax rise for the NHS, which is nice and won't be too bad but will have very little effect. One thing that struck me this morning is that Tim Farron has ruled out any pacts or deals with other parties, which means that there is no point to the LibDems. Unless they are an alternative government then a minor party can only ever have influence by teaming up with a larger party. They have been confined to irrelevance, and back to an old Lib Dem position. They finally found some realism going into the 2010 election.

UKIP are finished, and they know it.

The Greens have been banging on about a progressive alliance, but no one else is taking the bait. I don't know what other policies they may have.

Let's see where we get to in a couple of weeks time when the manifestos have been published.

Squiffy.

P..S. I'm looking forward to the Question Time editions with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. Both of them tend to stay away from the general public and go to events of loyalists. She will have to appear not robotic and he will have to keep his temper in check.

What an absolute shower! Part One...

This is a little commentary on the Labour Party during this election campaign.

It's been less than a week since the election was called. At the end of last week Dawn Butler had a car crash interview on the PM programme with Eddie Mair. In it she was trying to claim that Theresa May had rigged the election, by calling it! It's a pretty unusual claim. She then said it had been rigged because the PM had got around the Fixed Term Parliament's Act, but when challenged that Labour had voted for it she had no real response. She then claimed it had been rigged because the Tories were reducing the number of MPs to 600. When asked how many MPs there would be after the election, she had to say the truth: there would be 650 (the boundary changes come in next year). It was a horrific interview!

Jeremy Corbyn managed to last at least a few days without getting into serious trouble but then came his 'big' Sunday interview with Andrew Marr. The first question posed was very hypothetical, if Jeremy Corbyn was elected the first task would be to write letters to the nuclear submarine captains with instructions what to do if Britain had been struck and there was no command structure. Corbyn responded: 'I would stress that we believe in a non nuclear world'. Well, I'm sure the sub captains will find that very reassuring. He went on: 'We believe in peaceful negotiations, and shall try to get the 6 parties together for talks on Korea'. Sure, that's all well and good PM, should I press the button?

When asked if the policy was still for trident renewal, he said the manifesto was not finished yet and that it was up for discussion. Today on the Daily Politics the shadow defence spokeswoman, Nia Griffiths, distanced herself and said the Labour Party policy is to renew trident. Great, but we know, as do all our enemies, that if they strike first, our sub commanders will open envelopes with nothing better than a 'Get Well Soon' message inside! Not much of a deterrence, but then Corbyn doesn't quite understand that principle!

When Corbyn, finally squeaked out something approaching a decent answer to Andrew Marr on the submarine question it was 'Wait for orders' - which would be great if Downing Street had not been annihilated.

The other interesting question was about a drone strike on the leader of ISIS, al-Baghdadi, if the defence and intelligence staff had good knowledge of his whereabouts. Again Corbyn could not say, 'let's take out the bastard' and made usual noises about negotiation and it would be better if he was not around but without any decisive action.

As expected, a complete shower. He will need to answer some of these questions better soon.

Squiffy.

Snap. Didn't see that coming

Theresa May surprised everyone today by putting the wheels in motion for a General Election on 8th June. Normally there are rumours in the weekend papers, but this weekend there were some rumours that she wouldn't face the next election due to not enjoying being PM and with overtones of ill health. When Gordon Brown became PM there were rumours for weeks, which is why it did so much damage when he bottled it.

I completely understand the PMs move. I am sure that she didn't want this election right now and that she meant what she had said when ruled out the election, but apparently on her walking holiday over Easter it dawned on her that to secure Brexit she needed to face down those in parliament determined to frustrate the will of the referendum, and at the same time secure an increase majority for her programme. She would also be able to ditch some of the commitments that David Cameron had made (such as no increase in NI whatsoever).

The timing is brilliant. Just before negotiations really begin, but after Article 50 has been invoked, ensuring that she gets the mandate for her version of Brexit as set out in the white paper.

I've heard a bit of rubbish today though. Firstly, that it's undemocratic for a PM to be able to decide the timing of a general election. How is that undemocratic? If you don't like what she has to offer you can vote against it.

Secondly, that it's political opportunism. Well of course. What PM wouldn't choose the timing of the General Election if they could? Tony Blair did it, Thatcher did it, Harold Wilson did it twice. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act was to re-assure the LibDems that the Tories wouldn't run at the earliest opportunity and bring down the coalition. And if you think that is cynical, it's called coalition politics.

Thirdly, from Paul Mason - the extreme left winger - that now is the time for a progressive alliance. How many times have were heard this? It's not going to happen, especially with that Mason's goon Corbyn running the Labour party!


Anyway, we have 7 full weeks before the election, and it's time to see what this new set of leaders make of it. I expect Theresa May to be competent but remote (she's already said that she won't be in leaders debates). Corbyn to be a catastrophe for his party but with a good start to the campaign descending into rancour and division (let's just wait until he really loses his temper when he has to face the real public and not one of his rallies). Farron will have quite a good campaign and the LibDems will do well. Nuttall will be practically invisible.

I expect Ruth Davidson to really take Nicola Sturgeon on too!

I predict at the end, the Tories will be on 44%, Labour on 25%, LibDems on 18%, UKIP 5%. There will be a Tory Majority of 100ish.

The question following the election is who will be the new Labour leader!

Looking forward to this next campaign.

Squiffy.

Breaking: Article 50 has triggered, the world has not fallen in

Two weeks ago Theresa May triggered Article 50. So far there has been no major change discernible, even Sterling has stayed relatively stable.

We were told everything was going to go to crap as soon as the referendum delivered the 'leave' vote, and it didn't. Then it was going to be when Article 50 was triggered, and it hasn't. I'm guess that we'll continue to get these warnings through the negotiations and then again when we finally leave. Has anybody heard about the boy who cried wolf?

Just one more thing, if I see another Remainer say that we didn't vote for an extreme/hard/soft/welsh/blue/poor Brexit I will scream. They have no idea. Just like Remainers didn't vote for a single state EU/new EU settlement/two speed Europe/seven speed Europe/EU with benefits. They have no idea. The simple fact is people voted to leave the EU, and it was explained to them in literature and interviews by the leaders of both campaigns that it meant leaving the single market and ECJ. Now don't treat people as fools.

Squiffy.

F1 2017 is here

Usually I give a brief look at how the new F1 season is looking but I'm a bit late this year!

We've already had two races in to the season. Vettel has won one, Hamilton the other. Both are leading the championship. It has already become clear that the Mercedes and Ferraris are equally matched, as are their two lead drivers. Whilst Bottas and Raikkonen are a little behind their lead drivers, it looks like the constructors championship will be extremely tight too!

Red Bull have been 30 to 40 seconds back in both races and a bit of a disappointment quite frankly. The reset in the regulations was supposed to be Adrian Newey's chance to catch up, but the car looks clean though under-developed where the Mercedes and Ferrari are the real deal. Maybe they will get there, but I suspect it will be too late to have a huge impact on the championship.

Williams are looking quite good, as are Toro Rosso, but Force India and Renault have quite a bit of catch up to do. The huge disappointment, yet again, is McLaren. The engine yet again is under powered, too thirsty and too unreliable. Alonso is putting a brave face on it, but he won't be there next year. I would not be surprised at all if he walked out mid-year. He has wasted a large amount of his career in non championship winning cars, and that is partly his fault for the way he treated management in his first stint at McLaren.

What about the new rules?

Good so far. The cars have the right shape, the tyres are back to being wide, the rear-wing lower again. It's like the last 19 years have not happened! Apart for the tail fin and the far too complicated wings, flips and flaps. Looking back to last year's car and they already look wrong, just like I felt when they were first introduced.

China showed that overtaking is possible but difficult. Just like it was without DRS. I guess DRS was invented when the rear wings were higher and are just less effective with the lower wings.

I'm liking it so far and the championship race ahead is going to be very exciting. This could be a classic season.

Squiffy

Theresa May's Brexit speech

Today the Prime Minister gave a reasonably detailed view of the Government's position for Brexit.

I have one thing to say: Wow. Just Wow.

The speech ticked every box. It was ambitious but realistic, sound and measured, detailed but not too detailed. It confirmed what I have been saying for a long time, we'll be out of the single market, will have control over our laws, be practically out of the customs union, and have a comprehensive free trade deal.

She even did enough to say that we are prepared to walk away : "no deal is better than a bad deal" and made a little threat about what we can withdraw from.

I was immensely proud and pleased.

Afterwards I started thinking about the post Brexit world and the contrast to what we've had for all of my life.

Imagine not having those horrendous EU summits every few months where we get ganged up on, where we are forced to swallow some horrible new centralisation. Let's forget all those treaties transferring more powers to the EU. Let's forget all the bashing about taking away our rebate. Let's forget having to choose between a bunch of nobodies to run the most powerful bodies, and then have our choices ignored. Let's ignore all the directives. Let's forget about the wasteful French farmers. Let's forget the ratchet driving towards ever closer union.

Let's think of the new trade deals we can do. Let's think of the laws we can enact, the freedoms we can have again. Let's privatise the railways in the way we want. Let's become the embodiment of free trade. Let's import from Africa with no import tariffs helping to reduce poverty. Let us be free.

Squiffy.

Theresa May after 6 months verdict

It's now six months since Theresa May became Prime Minister. It has been a time of deep thinking about the EU and a few nuggets of policy about grammar schools and the 'shared society'.

On the EU I think Mrs May has just about got it right. She gave away the broad brush of the deal we will have in her first speech to the Tory conference, control over our borders, control over our laws, and the best trade deal we can do. That means outside the single market, outside the customs union and withe a wide ranging free trade agreement.

In the 6 months since, we've been told that she doesn't know what she wants, she doesn't know how to do it, there's no plan, and that we can have a soft/hard/clean/dirty/scottish/red/white/blue/grey Brexit. She did not want a commentary, and she's just had speculation.

Tomorrow is supposed to be the speech which sets out the direction. It has been widely trailed as saying that we'll be outside the single market, customs union etc....just like she has said all along. I believe she will go as far as saying it but implying it.

She wants to show that Britain is willing to walk away completely from the EU. This is something David Cameron should have done, but he didn't and so he got a crap deal. Mrs May will show we are willing to walk away and the EU will really start to believe it. The EU will then have to look at the numbers and know that it really needs to have a good relationship with Britain. Only then can we make a good deal. Mrs May is playing this just right.

It now looks like we may get the right deal for Britain. Hurray.

On Mrs May's other policies, I think it is too early to say. I like the idea of more grammar schools but it is not a big issue for most people. I like the 'shared society' idea, but then I liked the 'big society', let's see if it turns into something more concrete. I wish she had someone a bit more effective for Prisons, I think Liz Truss is out of her depth. I liked the way Michael Gove was driving reform, and hope someone will pick this up.

I do like the way that she is running the government, A lot less spin, and just getting on with it.

Let's see the speech tomorrow, I hope it will clarify most of Brexit.

Squiffy.

Reflections on 2016

2016 will go down as a bit of a crazy year. For some people it will be the worst of years, and for some it will be best of years. For me, it's a bit of both.

First the negative.

There were a lot of celebrity deaths this year. The BBC Radio 4 programme "More or Less" looked into it a little and their conclusions were that maybe there's a lot of famous people who became celebrities along with mass TV ownership in the 60's and 70's, and these celebrities are now reaching the ages when they start to die off. If that is the case then we'll have to get used to this many celebrity deaths.

Of course, if you look at the people who have died there's quite a lot in their 80s and 90s who one could say had a good run, other's who have died earlier than they should have but had lives with drugs and alcohol, and others for which cancer took them too soon. For me, the saddest are Victoria Wood for the works we have now missed from her genius pen and Carrie Fisher who had put all the bad things in the past and was full of the joy of life.

The other negative was Donald Trump being elected as President. I still can't quite believe how someone so unsuitable for the job has landed it. After all the horrible things he said in the campaign to different groups, such as Mexicans, disabled and women he still managed to nail it where it mattered. It goes to show how unfavourable the US finds Hillary Clinton, that she wasn't able to beat him. Maybe we will be surprised and he won't turn out to be a disaster but I wouldn't bet any money on it!

Also we had the BBC losing Bake off to channel 4. Not a huge story, but for me it is a picture of 'Love productions' the independent company behind the baking tent show putting money ahead of a proven formula. I think they have killed the golden goose and it will fizzle out on Channel 4 without Mary, Mel & Sue. A similar thing could be said for the new Top Gear, it just wasn't as good without Jeremy, Richard and James. Camaraderie amongst presenters cannot be guaranteed.

For me, I was disappointed Lewis Hamilton was beaten to the F1 World Championship, not by Nico Rosberg but by uncharacteristic unreliability. I'm happy for Nico and I'm sure the new champ walked away because he knew he would never be able to do it again - it's best to leave asking 'what could have been'.

Now to the positives.

When David Cameron came back from the EU with barely any concessions to put to the British people I was extremely disappointed. I liked the ex-PM, and after hearing his Bloomberg speech in which he put forward a new manifesto for the EU, I thought he had it spot on. He watered it down for the 2015 manifesto, then watered it further for the negotiation and he came back with mush.

In my mind: 'If the EU is not ready to be more flexible to its second largest contributor of funds when the EU is undergoing problems in all areas then it's time we left.' I had already become deeply disillusioned by the EU project, but this was the icing on the Out cake.

I then became a fervent brexiteer. I think we can make a big success of being a beacon of free trade, and demonstrating that we can be a leading nation in the world again. I seriously think the EU is in danger of completely unravelling over the next few years. The Euro is a disaster, the Schengen agreement is showing to be similar after adding so many poorer nations, but there appears to be no appetite to fix it. For every problem the answer is more Europe.

I was disappointed with project fear, which thankfully has not happened - as I expected.

Overall, I'm really happy we have decided to leave and I think we will be proved right in the end, but it has been traumatic to the British psyche and I regret that.

This a positive for the Tory party, as the bearded wonder is still there guaranteeing the next Tory Government. It's bad for the country and disastrous for the Labour party which is now heading towards oblivion.

The Olympics were marvellous, and Team GB were amazing. I watch a lot of it this time and the cycling and gymnastics stood out for me. I loved it.

Roll on 2017.

Squiffy.

2016 is over, here comes 2017

Every year I try to predict what will happen, I usually get around half of them right. I have a feeling that when I mark myself for 2016 I'll be lucky to get any predictions correct. What a year with so many surprises.

Ok, now to copy and paste last year's predictions, and see the marks:

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship again. 0 points
2. Sebastien Vettel will be second in the F1 World Championship and will win more races. 0 points
3. Nico Rosberg will leave Mercedes at the end of the year, and Raikkonen will retire. 0.5 points, Rosberg did leave!
4. It will be Hilary Clinton vs Marco Rubio for the US presidency. 0.5 points, it was Hilary Clinton but I really though Trump would have been found out!
5. Marco Rubio will win the presidency. 0 points.
6. The EU referendum will happen this year with Remain winning by roughly 58% to 42%. 0 points, completely wrong.
7. The Tories will beat Labour in the local elections by a small margin, with the Lib Dems coming back quite strongly in third. 0.5 point, Lib Dems came bac strongly but Labout just pipped the Tories.
8. There will be a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. 1 point
9. Douglas Carswell will leave UKIP and stay independent. 0 points
10. At least 2 MPs will defect from Labour. 0 points

In total that makes 2.5 points which is pretty pathetic compared to last years' 6.75 points, but given the year we've had I'd take it!

Which makes me come to this year's predictions. Let's see how I fair this year.

1. Lewis Hamilton will regain the F1 World Championship
2. Daniel Ricciardo will be second in the F1 World Championship and it will get tense with Max Verstappen who'll come third.
3. Ferrari will fall further into disarray, with Vettel and Raikonnen leaving at the end of the year.
4. Francois Fillon will beat Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French Presidency, Emmanuel Macron will be pipped in the previous round.
5. Angela Merkel will remain German Chancellor
6. There will be another Eurozone crisis following Greece intransigence.
7. Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March as predicted by the Prime Minister
8. A rough outline of Brexit will be presented. Not a member of the Single Market, a free trade agreement on goods, no free movement of peoples and a sector-by-sector membership of the customs union (wheich we'll not get).
9. The parties will stay roughly where they are in the polls, Tories 40%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 9%.
10. 2 more Labour MPs will either defect or resign.
11. In the Copeland By-Election Labour will narrowly beat the Tories, by less than 2000 votes. UKIP will be a distant third.

Squiffy.

OMG!

Squiffy

F1 2016: The crunch

We're coming down to the crunch in the 2016 F1 season. There's two races to go and Nico Rosberg is 19 points ahead of Lewis Hamilton.

Nico Rosberg has definitely had his best ever season and won some races decisively. He has had quite a lot of luck, however, as Hamilton has suffered from multiple engine related problems. Two qualifying sessions in the early part of the season put Lewis towards the back of the grid, resulting in Lewis changing multiple engines in Belgium to build up his number of working engines and starting from the back again. Finally, his engine blowing up in Malaysia when he was near the end of the race in the lead and about to regain the lead in the championship was nearly a final straw.

Without those failures, it's hard to see how Rosberg would be in with a chance in this championship.

But, we are where we are.

There are two races left. Rosberg has won the last two Brazilian Grand Prix, and Hamilton has never won there. If history repeats itself and Rosberg wins again then he will be this year's champion. But Brazil has a habit of throwing up some unusual races. Quite often it rains and catches out some of the top players. Also, I'm not sure whether Rosberg has ever won a rain affected race - where Hamilton is a rain supremo.

If Hamilton was to get his first ever Brazilian GP win and Rosberg crashed out or drove defensively to a lower place in the points, like Monaco's race this year, then it will be game on.

Either way, this Brazil Grand Prix will be decisive, I think. If Hamilton comes out on top and back in the game, then I expect him to win the ABu Dhabi GP and win the championship. If Rosberg wins then I expect him to take the Abu Dhabi GP as well as his first championship.

Only if Hamilton wins and Rosberg is second or third, do we go onto to Abu Dhabi with it all still to play for. Hamilton know never to give up, in 2007 he was 17 points ahead of Raikkonen going into the last two races with 20 points available and yet Raikkonen won. Hamilton must be hoping for that misfortune to be cancelled out this time round.

We also don't know whether Rosberg will tighten up in these crunch rounds. So far he has been strong and stable so we should expect not, but you never know.

This time next week some of these questions will be answered.

Squiffy.

Oi thickie. We knew what we voted for?

I'm getting increasingly incensed by being told that I did not know what I was voting for in the EU referendum. I feel like a large number of the political elite are extremely condescending.

Yes, I'm thinking of you Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. Here is Nick Clegg in full condescension mode.

Apparently not one single voter said to Nick that they were voting leave to 'stop British exporters from their untrammeled access to their largest markets in Europe'. Well, I must say I'm surprised, that's what most people were saying on my high street! No, it's a straw man set up to be ridiculous.

The video shows leaders of both the remain and leave camps saying that leaving the EU would mean leaving the single market. We all knew that we would still be trading with the single market but would not be bound by the wealth of regulations in the rest of our economy.

Most people I know who voted leave knew £350m a week would not be going to the NHS - it was indicative, but wanted to have control over our laws, regulations and borders. Hence, we knew it was going to be a so called 'hard' Brexit.

We felt the EU was going in the wrong direction, and had been for a quarter of a century, and repeated attempts to change direction were rebuffed.

They are treating us like we are stupid, but

We knew what we were voting for - you thickie

Of course, Nick Clegg knows that most people did know what they were voting for. He is not thick, I just said that for effect. Like he does.

He is pushing for votes on various aspects of Brexit. The more votes the better. He wants to frustrate the process at all stage. He gives not one damn about democracy. The Lib Dem 2005 manifesto actually proposed an in/out referendum but he forgot about this when it became inconvenient.

There will be so many different ways in which Parliament will be pushed for votes, the Government is going to have to be vigilant.

I hope that Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband lose their seats at the next election. Let's show them what democracy is all about.

Squiffy.

Free Trade Agreements, access and membership of the Single Market

Now that we have made the momentous decision to leave the EU, we are constantly asking ourselves what does Brexit look like?

In much the same way as people get confused about the difference between debt and deficit, there is a great deal of confusion between free trade agreements, membership and access of the single market. I thought I might give you what I understand to be the differences, and what I think we should aim for.

Firstly, free trade agreements are generally agreements between two countries in which they agree not to impose tariffs (a tax) on imported goods and services. This may be across the board or only on goods, or in certain sectors of the economy. Many countries have these and there are some cases where there is a free trade agreement between a country and the EU. Within the EU we are in effect in a free trade agreement with the other 27 nations of the EU.

What is the EU single market? It is a customs union in which all members agree not to impose import tariffs, i.e. a free trade agreement between the 28 nations including ourselves.

Is that all? No. The single market is more than that. When you sell goods into the US the goods you sell must adhere to US regulations, likewise with the EU. The Single Market makes it so that every country within the EU has the same regulations, so as a member you know that if you make something for France it will also be good enough for Germany. Being a member of the Single Market means that you agree to adhere to all the EU regulations for all your goods and services (though the single market in services is not yet harmonized).

That sounds great, so we must have access to the single market? Yes, of course we must have access to the single market - but that's not really in question. The US has access to the single market, Western Samoa has access to the single market. Access just means that you are able to sell into the single market - well you can as long as the goods you sell adhere to EU regulations, just like with the US.

So what's the confusion? Some politicians and commentators confuse access to the single market with membership of the single market. We will have access, but whether we are a member is the crux.

It sounds good to be a member of the single market, so why would we not want to be? Those EU regulations which we need to adhere to, we also need to adhere to them for any goods which we don't intend to export to the EU. In fact around 95% of our economy does not export, and some of this regulation is very heavy handed. We could have lighter British regulation for all our economy, and then apply EU regulations for only those exporting to the EU.

Any other drawbacks on being a member? Yes. The EU has made it so that the single market negotiates with other countries on free trade agreements as a Block, which is why we have not been able to have FTA's with like minded countries like the US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and tigers such as India and China. Being outside, we can push ahead with new FTA's.

Furthermore as a custom's union, the single market does impose import tariffs on external countries, even if the UK does not wish to. Agricultural goods from Africa are cheaper, but with tariffs are more expensive. This is to protect inefficient french farmers and the common agricultural policy. Outside the single market we can drop those tariffs and get cheaper food from Africa which will help us and help Africa.

Also the EU single market membership holds that free movement of peoples is a pre-requisite which is why immigration has become an issue and, unless the EU becomes more flexible, the reason why we will have to stop being members.

The way in which Theresa May has set up the new departments, one for Brexit and an International
Trade seems to infer that we will have to stop being members of the single market (otherwise we could not negotiate FTA's).

I would bet my bottom dollar on not being members of the single market but having a free trade agreement with the single market in all areas which are already covered.

Hope that explains.

Squiffy,

A big day for May. A bad day for Labour and UKIP.

Theresa May becomes Prime Minister today, and I wish her well. She's a bit cold but maybe that is going to be useful in the upcoming negotiations with the EU.

I just hope her re-shuffle shows a break from Cameronism and embraces Brexit. I want to see George Osborne moving on from the Chancellorship, the Foreign Office is ok. I don't want to see Philip Hammond as Chancellor as he is gloomy, miserable and still scare mongering - even now. We need an optimist and someone radical to simplify the tax code. Maybe Gove, maybe Dominic Raab.

She should keep Gove in as either chief negotiator or to finish his Justice reforms. Boris should be brought in as maybe Party Chairman or Education Secretary. If not Gove then David Davis would be great as chief negotiator. She does have a few good female talents to draw on, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd and Anna Soubry. She could put Andrea Leadsom in as Treasury Number 2. We'll see.


Yesterday's meeting of the Labour NEC came up with the correct result of having Jeremy Corbyn on the ballot paper. He needs to be destroyed by a legitimate democratic voice and not a stitch-up. They then came up with silly rules to exclude new members from voting, but allowing registered supporters. They need to sort this out quickly. If Corbyn is ousted, Labour would do well to copy the Tory party process.

UKIP went equally mad yesterday and excluded every one from their leadership ballot who has not been a member for 5 years. The party has only been in existence for 20 years or so and the last 5 years has been their best. In one foul swoop they have taken out their brightest and most able media performers, especially Suzanne Evans and Douglas Carswell. Carswell does not want to be leader but Suzanne Evans would have added respectability to the party as she is likeable. It's now got an unknown in Stephen Wolf and Diane James who I don't rate. I think UKIP won't be around as a political force in 5 years time.

Squiffy.

Understanding Corbynistas

I had a conversation with a left wing friend the other day and he was saying how great a leader Jeremy Corbyn was. I was incredulous. How could an otherwise sensible man believe this? He couldn't understand why I couldn't see it.

Today I was listening to the Iain Dale programme on LBC and to a man who was calling Angela Eagle a Blairite or Thatcherite! In the days of Tony Blair you would have said that Angela Eagle was on the left of the party (just not as left as Corbyn). The caller then said that the vast majority of people who don't vote are supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, but obviously there is no evidence for this at all!

I think the caller exposed something though which I think is key to understanding Corbynistas. I think that people on the far left believe that everyone, by default, has the same beliefs as them.

I mean how could anyone believe anything different? And if they do believe something different, then if you're right wing then you must be evil and if you are centre-left then you are a traitor.

It is for this reason why moderate Labour MPs are being bombarded with extremely negative messages on twitter and facebook. They are being bullied with horrendous and vicious attacks - some sexist, racist and homophobic messages - from the supposed party of equality.

It is so easy to surround yourself with people who have the same views, especially on the new media of Twitter and Facebook. It's called the 'echo chamber' as you have your own views echoed back to you. Momentum is a big echo chamber of the far left and their member's are extremely vociferous in giving their views, but I doubt it will ever get more than one million members.

The members of the far left, though, forget about the silent millions of centre-left voters who want a reasonable Government with a bigger state but not a ruling state. It will become clear to them when the Labour party splits as it soon will in one way or another. But the people who don't support the people's front are traitors anyway aren't they?

Squiffy.

Corbyn vs PLP (or Eagle vs Corbyn)

It looks like Angela Eagle is set to challenge Jeremy Corbyn for leadership of the Labour party on Monday.

I cannot believe how slow the Labour party coup has been. It's taken two weeks already and the Labour party looks like a joke. The Tory party does this so much better, they do not accept crap leaders for long. And if Angela Eagle is the best challenger it shows the paucity of talent in the Labour ranks.

The Labour party is a mess from top to bottom. The party members are not representative of Labour voters. The Parliamentary Labour Party is not representative of the membership and Corbyn does not represent the PLP.

If Jeremy Corbyn wins there will have to be a split. The moderates will have to leave and set up a new party.

If Angela Eagle wins, will Momentum split taking Jeremy Corbyn and his small band of far left wingers?

I don't think the broad church of the Labour can sustain any longer, it just remains to be seen who takes custody of the Labour name and party machinery.

Squiffy.

May vs Leadson

The Tory party leader and next Prime Minister will either be Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom.

I think Michael Gove would be the best Prime Minister, he is a radical with great ideas on social justice. Unfortunately, by the way he treated Boris Johnson, he has seriously damaged his credentials and so was third out of the leadership contest.

The two ladies fighting it out now do not fill me with enthusiasm, like David Cameron did, and so I hope the hustings will show some ideas which get my mouth watering.

I think, though, that I want Theresa May to win. I think her experience will be very valuable. She has styled herself as the new Iron Lady and I hope she is able to live up to the original. I don't like the fact that we have two months of campaigning, we desperately need a new PM soon to start taking away the doubt in this post-referendum world. In fact it would be great if Andrea Leadsom stood down so we could have a new PM immediately.

The last few days has shown that Andrea is a bit politically naive and I hope she learns from this. She seems to have picked up the right wing and UKIPpers - which worries me greatly. She would benefit from a cabinet job in Theresa May Government.

Squiffy

Rosberg vs Hamilton

Last week in Austria Nico Rosberg made a mistake, collided with Lewis Hamilton and damaged his car. Note, how I lay the blame on Nico Rosberg. Lewis Hamilton left Nico plenty of room to turn, Nico left Hamilton none and only turned at the last moment.

Let's trace this back.

Rosberg started it.

In Bahrain 2014 we witnessed a fantastic race with overtaking hard but fair on both sides, with Hamilton coming out on top. All nice and clean. Apart from the fact that Rosberg had used an engine setting with more power - against Mercedes' own rule to get close to Hamilton.

Two races later in Spain, Hamilton retaliated and used the 'forbidden' engine mode to stay ahead of Rosberg to take the win.

Then Monaco. In qualifying, Rosberg had a very suspicious off, destroying Hamilton's lap as Rosberg was running ahead of him on the track. He even reversed back onto the track. It was clearly a foul. Hamilton was incandescent.

In Hungary, Hamilton had another problem in qualifying with his car on fire and so he had to come through the field. Hamilton and Rosberg found themselves running 3rd and 4th. Hamilton was asked to allow Rosberg to pass, but as he was still in the hunt for the win he said he wouldn't slow down - Rosberg would have to get closer, which he didn't.

In Spa, Rosberg got a good run on Hamilton up Les Combes and tried to pass but managed to clip Hamilton's rear tyre puncturing it. There was a public flair up and the first laying down of the law by Toto Wolff.

Turn to 2015.

In Japan, Hamilton was aggressive into the first corner, leaving Rosberg 'out to dry' as Hamilton had the racing line.

In Austin, again into the first corner on a wet track, Rosberg was slightly ahead on the outside, with Hamilton on the inside trying to turn and with cold brakes going straight on pushing Rosberg out. This is the most similar situation to the recent Austria incident, but Hamilton had cold brakes and tried to turn. Incidentally, Rosberg said he was 'slightly ahead so had the luxury to take the racing line.' Remember that.

Now to 2016.

In Spain, Rosberg passed Hamilton off the line but was in the wrong engine mode and stopped picking up speed as they went through turn three. Hamilton closed fast and went for the inside but Rosberg closed the space and went into Hamilton. Both were out, but both were at fault.

In Canada, Rosberg again got partially alongside Hamilton after the start but was on the outside and Hamilton again, with cold brakes, was about to take the racing line with Rosberg having to take to the grass. They had banged wheels.

Finally Austria. Interestingly, Hamilton was slightly ahead on the outside, Rosberg had failing brakes. This time Rosberg said 'he had the inside line and so was able to take the racing line' - which is the opposite of what he said in the race in Austin! He didn't even take the racing line, he failed to turn in and specifically pushed Hamilton wide.

In conclusion. Rosberg started hostilities. Hamilton has raced hard but fair and when he forced them to touch, they banged wheels with both cars continuing. Rosberg when racing wheel to wheel makes too many mistakes and causes bits to fall off cars. Hamilton is a better racer. That's why Hamilton has 3 world championships.

Squiffy.