F1 2008 is here

We're halfway through January and F1 has started to create a buzz again. We've had team launches from Ferrari, McLaren, BMW, Toyota and Red Bull. So far all of the teams are buoyant with enthusiasm, and there are a lot of positive comments. So let's assess what is happening with the first teams out of starting block for 2008.

Ferrari
Ferrari must start this year as favourites. They had the fastest car in 2007, even if it lost some of it's well known reliability. The car had a few limitations, it did not handle slow and twisty tracks well (Monaco and Hungary), and its suspension gave it problems at bumpy tracks or those where riding kerbs is a must (Canada and Italy). To combat these shortcomings, they have gone for a slightly shorter wheelbase and changed the suspension. They have also tackled some of the problems in getting heat into their tyres which caused some problems in qualifying.

The car is an evolution of F2007, but if Ferrari have done a good job, and there is no reason to believe that they won't the F2008 will be a more rounded performer and the car to beat.

I expect Kimi Raikkonen to perform even better than last year. After his first win, he had a slump while he was getting on top of the new Bridgestones. This year he should hit the ground running. He knows the team now, and they respect him, so he is the man to beat. I see Felipe Massa as a David Coulthard type figure, he can be unbelievably fast and will win a lot of races, and every year will go into the season thinking (and saying) that he's much stronger than last year and can win the world championship. Unfortunately, he still doesn't seem able to keep the consistency going and wilts a little when not leading. If he starts the season by beating Kimi then I think the situation could change however.

McLaren
McLaren had some incredible highs and lows last year. A very strong team, a fantastic rookie and a great car for the first time since 1999 (2005 was good but way too fragile). But the team tore itself apart, lost all its constructor points and lost a drivers world championship that seemed like a certainty with two races to go.

The good points were that they did have a great car, and a fantastic driver which they take into 2008. McLaren have changed their philosophy on car building recently. They used to push for absolute speed (under the guidance of Adrian Newey) at the expense of reliability, and the cars would quite often be a revolution rather than evolution. This lead to a great but fragile car followed by a consolidating year making the concept more reliable. They are now changing to look for speed but also reliability, last year the car was bullet proof for the first time since at least 1988 (even then there were more failures). This year looks like more of the same.

If the Ferrari had characteristic problems at some tracks, McLaren lived in the alternate universe where their car would be slow at fast sweeping and smooth tracks (Australia, Barcelona, Belgium). They had great qualifying pace but could eat their tyres up more. So, McLaren with the new MP4-23 have gone for the reverse changes to Ferrari. Slightly longer wheelbase, softer suspension, improved aero efficiency and softer on the tyres.

Lewis Hamilton will be an even better driver this year, with more confidence and
experience. I don't think we'll see him slide off the road at China this year - he will call to the pits and make sure they change his tyres! He will put up a great fight with Kimi. I expect to see Heikki Kovalainen perform better this year. He says he's happier now than at any other time in his career, and McLaren have been good to Finns. He should come close to Lewis on several occassions.

Although Ferrari and McLaren both had great cars last year, they were approaching the same problems from two sides and came up with diametrically opposite car characteristics. So even with a close title fight, we had too few close track battles. If both teams have done a great job, both cars should be approaching the same happy medium, and expect sparks to fly!


BMW
The BMW squad have done a great job to be snapping at the heals of McLaren and Ferrari. They seem to have tackled some of the perceived weaknesses of the old Sauber team and can develop a car through the year. The new BMW, the F1.08, seems to be an evolution of last year's car and needs to push the development in order to make up the 0.5 second deficit to the two top teams.

The new car will have a longer wheelbase, tighter sculpted sidepods and some interesting wings sprouting from the engine cover. Also, there are improvements to mechanical grip, in order to gain stability, downforce and keep a good balance.

Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica are great drivers, and will both need to push really hard to get BMW their first win. I think it will be possible but difficult to break through to the winners circle, but if the first two teams have problems then it may be possible.

Red Bull
It will be the fourth Red Bull car this year, the RB4. The new design from Adrian Newey is an evolution from the RB3 but is physically very similar. The RB3 was fast but unreliable, a particular trait of Adrian Newey I'm afraid. Red Bull seems to have taken on board the characteristic development ethos of McLaren under Newey's technical directorship. The addition of Geoff Willis, though, may bring some focus back to reliability and it may be for this reason why the RB4 seems a little less ambitious than other new cars.

Both Mark Webber and David Coulthard are good drivers and evenly matched, Mark goes well in qualifying and David does better in races. It's possible this maybe David's last year in F1, so he really needs to remind people of his previous victories with some memorable drives if he is to appear on the grid in 2009.

This year Mark Webber needs to stamp his authority in the races, he needs to out-race DC and become a consistent front runner. Webber looked an exciting prospect a few years ago but has been marginalised by the new rookies making a splash. This year he will have to push his way back into the paddock's consciousness.

Toyota
On paper, Toyota should be winning races regularly. They have a big budget and a good motor racing history in the WRC and IndyCar/Champcar. So far, they have not broken out of the midfield. Their best season was 2005 and the 2006 and 2007 cars have followed the same design philosophy. Unfortunately, this has meant that they have not made big strides and fallen back.

The new TF108 looks like a more radical approach, and has poached some ideas from the other teams. Unfortunately, design does not look entirely consistent. I think Toyota suffer from 'management by committee' without a strong technical leadership focusing everyone is a specific direction. Losing Mike Gascoyne in 2006 was a big error, and they seem not to have recovered yet. Noises from Japan are saying that Toyota have another two years to start making the big strides to regularly fight for podiums. Undoubtedly, this car will be an improvement, but it's looking like fairy steps to me.

On the driver front, losing Ralf Schumacher was a good decision. He's great when out front but is a bit wayward when in the midfield. I'm glad to see Jarno Trulli keep his place, as changing both drivers would be a big mistake, but he needs to be more consistent to earn a place for 2009. Timo Glock looks good, and as the current GP2 champion should help to push the team forward. I'm not expecting the same kind of hype as Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton however, which is a shame.

More from the other 6 teams later.

Squiffy.