The likely options - anything but Lab-LD

It's midday on the Monday after the general election and there is no effective Government in this country. The Lib Dems and Conservatives are still talking and there is a deadline of this evening in place, put by Nick Clegg.

I think the most likely option is that there will be a Con-LD coalition, with the 4 key principles still in play. The 'political reform' will include MP recall, reform of the House of Lords and changes to political funding. I think there will be a committee on electoral reform and a free vote on a PR referendum.

If this happens it will be quite difficult to get it through the Tory party, but I think they will with grumbling. I think the LDs will get it through with a few minor defections to Labour. I then think that the LD vote share in the polls will plummet with many saying they would not help prop up a Tory Government. The pact would last two years.

The second most likely options is a supply and confidence agreement with Tories operating as a minority with support for some political reforms and the budget and a small Queen's speech. The Lib Dems will grumble about this but continue until later this year when a second general election will be called. The LDs would do badly in this election.

The least likely option is that of a Lab-LD coalition. Primarily because the numbers don't add up to make a majority and would need the rag tag of other smaller parties. Any kind of rainbow coalition would be extremely unstable and would show that there is no willingness to deal with the deficit as the Government would be in hock to vested local interests. The economy would tank quickly and we would have a general election in the summer.

The other reason why this is unlikely, is that Nick Clegg cannot be so stupid to believe that the country would accept a new unelected Labour leader, and even more so that any Labour leader cannot deliver on a promise of PR. Most MPs in the Labour party prefer First-Past-The-Post and so the LD leader would need to have a lobotomy to believe any PR promises. Especially as the Labour party would be going through a moment of soul-searching.

Finally, again the LDs would have a few defections and would tank in the polls. Any solution is probably bad for the Lib Dems, but any Lib Dem voter who thought that any of the possible scenarios above should not happen is obviously living in cloud cuckoo land. These are the scenarios that a vote for the LDs infer. It also demonstrates the hazards of PR - we are having the PR demo right now...

Squiffy.