From disappointment to anger

After the budget I said that I felt disappointed. As time goes by I'm getting more and more angry.

The vindictive tax rises on entrepreneurs and wealth creators continues to unravel. This morning we found that there will be a further raid on their pensions, even though this is out for consultation they have included the figures in their future revenue forecasts. This Government has no shame, they wrecked the great pension provisions we had made by their 1997 raid on pensions, then set-up an inquiry on how to improved pension provision, and are now raiding the again. Absolutely scandalous.

The Chancellor said in his forecast that growth in Q1 2009/10 would be similar to Q4 2008/9. Well it was -1.6% in Q4 and is now -1.9% in Q1, so his growth forecasts are already being missed, only two days after being revealed! That is surely some record, even for this "numerically-challenged" lot.

The latest figures are showing that we may be back in balance by 2032! 23 years away! I'll say that again, it will take 23 years before we can pay back our debt, they have truly mortgaged our future. That's Wangernumb.

An top of all that, the treatment of the Ghurkas is absolutely disgraceful. They should be allowed to stay here after fighting for our country.

The Government should hang their heads. They are a disgrace. We need rid. Please, for God's sake go. Leave. Resign. If you had any decency left, you'd have gone by now. Your moral decency has passed, ceased to be, and gone to moral heaven. You have no bills and no ideas. You are destroying the UK, so call a General Election Now!

Nuff said.

Squiffy.

The dance mix

Check out this dance mix of dear leader.

Squiffy.

The verdict: disappointment

The hope of an honest and decent budget has gone. I feel disappointed. There were some piecemeal initiatives, which will get some headlines but will achieve very little. The 50% rise in the top rate of tax will raise very little a year, and is just an extension of the dividing line established in the pre-budget report. The Tories should say nothing, but repeal it at the first possible opportunity.

There were no significant ways mentioned on how to bring the budget back to balance. The Chancellor is hoping that by returning to growth in 2011 (at an unbelievable rate of 3.5%) he will start to pay off the debt. Well, it's not good enough, that sort of strategy got us into this mess in the first place. He's bearing his head in the sand whilst crossing every appendage he's got. Over-optimism is this Chancellor's Achilles heel, and he's stumbling around on it again.

This was a major disappointed, debt is going to get even further out of control. All Labour chancellors run out of money, and this one has just been added to the list.

Squiffy.

Will this budget be better received than the last few?

The last four occasions that the Chancellor has presented a budgetary report (two budgets and two pre-budget reports) the details have quickly unravelled. Each budget has been deemed as a springboard to Labour's comeback but each one has plunged the party into the abyss. Think back to the damage that the 10p tax fiasco caused.

Will this budget be any different? If the papers are to be believed, then maybe. From what we read, the Chancellor will finally give us some truths about the state of Britain Plc's finances and will not try to be too rosy. It sounds like he is not going to be pushed around by the Prime Minister any more, creating dividing lines with the Tories, rather he will try to get a grip on the amazing levels of debt we are now reaching.

If he does this, then it maybe seen as a successful budget - if not a cheerful one. Here's waiting with baited breath.

Squiffy.

Spot on

Dizzy gets dear leader exactly right.

What ever happened to purdah?

No not the noisy cat, the practice of keeping details of the Budget under wraps until Budget day. In days gone by, there were even prosecutions for Budget leaks, but I can't see Mr Plod doing a Damien Green-esq House of Commons type raid as the leakers are all on the Government benches.

The last two days have seen headlines stating that the Budget will help the construction industry, the stamp duty cut will be extended and that £15 billion will be cut from efficiency savings. On top of that the last month we've heard of car "scrappage", and eco-bonuses for electric cars which don't exist. These should not be announced until budget day, but the Government is desperate to change the subject of conversation away from smeargate to something more wholesome, like the terrible state of the country's finances!

Tomorrow is going to be bleak, and it needs to be. From what we hear Alistair Darling is going to fess up, he's going to tell us that we are deep in the poo, he's been unbelievable optimistic in the past few years and now he's going to give it to us straight. He probably won't go so far as to say that we wouldn't be so far up to our necks in it, if his boss had been more prudent with the finances because that would be too honest!

It's interesting to hear the figures of £15 billion efficiency savings, when the Tories have proposed such savings in the past the Government have screamed "cuts to nurses and teachers". I guess that's another tactic that has been blown away.

So, go out tonight and enjoy yourself. Tomorrow we will all be dealing with a massive hangover.

Squiffy.

Frank Field should cross the floor

Every time Frank Field speaks or writes an article, I'm impressed and bemused. Impressed that he seems to have grasped ideas which his fellow backbenchers haven't and bemused because everything he says points to Tory policies.

For instance read this article, and it strikes you that it could have been written by George Osborne or Kenneth Clarke.

So why on earth does he continue to sit on the Government benches? One of the big mysteries of our times!

Squiffy.

And on the sixth day...

Anyone who has watched the absolutely marvellous West Wing will know about how controlling the news cycle is a major part of Government's agenda. Watching CJ Cregg try to get to the serious news of the day whilst being dragged down by the media storm of the President's MS gave some idea of how difficult it can be.

Our Government finds itself in a similar situation. Guido Fawkes timed his smeargate attacks to perfection, in a quiet period known as Easter he did his worst. For the last five days the news has invariably led with the response to the smear e-mails. Today is different, but no better for the Government. Instead of a Government looking squalid by getting dirty in the ether, we have a Government looking incompetent over the arrest of Damian Green MP. From the frying pan into the fire!

It's not looking good, a Government amid sleeze and incompetence reminds me of a not too distant past. And if the Tom Watson libel suit were to go the way of the 'sword of truth and trusty shield of fair play' (not that it should) the parallels would be ever greater.

I doubt whether it will get better either, rumours exist that there are further e-mails to be released as part of smeargate affair, which will bring it to prominence again. Oh, if only GB had a CJ!

Squiffy

The world is poorer today without Sir Clement

It is a morning of great sadness, hearing of the death of Sir Clement Freud. A man of many talents, including MP for Ely and North Cambridgeshire, chef, horse racing fanatic, writer, television and radio performer.

As part of the Liberal contingent in parliament, I will always be grateful that he chose to vote against the discredited Callaghan government.

In my mind, though, his appearances on Radio 4's Just a minute will forever be in my memory. His dry tones were just the foil for a witty anecdote, sometimes we wouldn't know where he was heading but at the end it was always a delight. Some of his put downs to Nicholas Parsons were priceless, even if you could detect that occasionally he really did meant it!

That brings an end to the original line-up of Sir Clement Freud, Peter Jones, Derek Nimmo and Kenneth Williams and the passing of an era. Thankfully with talents like Ross Noble, Graham Norton and the wonderfully surreal Paul Merton "Just a Minute" will continue, but just like the loss of Humph in "I'm sorry I haven't a clue" it won't quite feel the same.

We'll miss you.

Squiffy.

Never shall he say it's about ishoos

One of Gordon Brown's frequent ripostes in PMQs is that the Tories don't want to talk about policies, but personalities. Now that the operation within Number 10 to reveal unfounded stories on political opponents on a new 'Red Rag' website has been exposed, he will not be able to repeat the jibe with effect.

That doesn't mean that he won't try, the PM has shown that he's not fleet footed within the Chamber and I will be extremely surprised if he stops himself saying something similar. If he does, David Cameron will bring up the McBride emails and the house will be in uproar.

One of Gordon Brown's stock answers has been taken away from him, as well as one of his key aides. The possibility of a Labour recovery has now further narrowed. And quite rightly.

Squiffy.

They have to go

I've said this before, but this Government has to go. The Damian McBride emails have shown that there is something rotten in the heart of Number 10. He may have gone, but the person who appointed him and set the parameters for his behaviour is still around - and that is dear leader.

Gordon Brown cannot wash his hands completely of what has been done in his name. He may not have typed the emails himself, but the tone is set by him - and the spinning and back stabbing throughout the years in power by his coterie of advisers has now gone too far.

Will no-one rid us of this troublesome Government?

Squiffy.

The dead cat that did not bounce

Last week's G20 meeting seemed to be relatively successful for the Prime Minister, whether it is successful in bringing the worldwide recession to an end we'll have to wait and see. But for Gordon Brown, the threatened walk outs and violent demonstrations did not happen and he could pose in his favourite position as Chancellor to the world spouting large figures such as the $5 trillion fiscal stimulus. Never mind that the figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt (the $5 trillion being the total amount spent through the recession by all countries, including the natural automatic stabilizers such as unemployment benefit rather than specific fiscal stimuli packages).

For GB, it looked good and I would have been predicting a 5% increase in the Labour party poll figures which would quickly disappear as reality stepped in. The first poll (for YouGov) had the party increasing by 4%, but the second poll (for Populus) taken after the meeting showed no increase in the Labour party position and the Tories advancing by 1 point. It's too early to say whether the G20 lustre has so quickly faded, but it may be that the dead cat did not bounce this time. In fact it looks like the dead cat has been to a taxidermist and has that very strange stare that only stuffed animals and expense challenged MPs get.

Squiffy.

He's not the messiah, just a very naughty boy

Which must be how Lewis Hamilton feels today. Whatever the details of whether he chose to lie or was told to by the team manager, it should have been clear that the car to pits radio would expose any discrepancies. In such circumstances it seems like a very foolish thing to have done and his reputation has suffered, in a similar way to Schumacher parking his car after Rascasse in Monaco 2006.

This year he needed to repair his relationship with the stewards after the controversies of the last two years. Unfortunately, it's all gone wrong from the first race of the season. The world championship is already looking like a tough ask this year, and it just got tougher.

Squiffy

Capitalism = Freedom

I was listening to an anti-capitalism protester today, when he said "Capitalism equals oppression, we need to rid the world of it."

How utterly, absolutely, undoubtedly wrong.

The guy doesn't seem to realise that capitalism gives people freedom. Not the democracy kind of freedom, but pretty close to it. He has the choice of what to spend his money on, that's capitalism. He has more of his money in his own hand before the tax man takes it, so that he can spend it on paint to splash over RBS windows if he so chose.

You need to ask yourself, what has capitalism done to China? Although the people of China do not have the freedom to choose their politicians, they have a choice of what they spend their money on. For those not living in the countryside, their standard of living has increased immesurably since the East embraced capitalism. They can choose when to borrow money to invest, how many people to employ, the rates that they employ people on and what to charge their customers. Everyone benefits and world spins on its axis.

There is not an enonomic/political system to rival communism for lack of freedom, but these demonstrators see some pseudo-communist state/system as the panacea for the world's ails. It's so wrong-headed, capitalism goes with the grain of the human condition, not against it.

Squiffy.

Ooo, er missus

Poor Jackie Smith. As I've said before, I quite like her (don't know why), but the expenses/porn (cash for porn, porngate?) row has shown that she cannot really run her own household properly (what was she doing signing off expenses for Raw Meat 3? unless it was really that good!) - so what can we expect from the Home Office?

It all goes to show that the MPs should have taken my advice last year and changed their expenses rules. Up their pay with a non-London weighting (something like £80K) and provide resources for constituency office staff from a House of Commons pool. Finally, banish allowances, expenses, second homes, the lot.

Simple, quite like some of our MPs.

Squiffy.

Wasn't it wonderful

Now that there's been time for it to sink in, wasn't it wonderful to see Jenson Button on the top step of the podium on Sunday? It's been a hard slog for him and he deserves it, this time the win was with a car that deserved it rather than luckily when everyone else fell off the track.

It's great that Brawn GP have produced a great car too, and Ross Brawn was close to tears afterwards. Honda management must be having kamikaze thoughts right now. I really enjoyed seeing Williams right up there again, they should be near the front.

Overall, the race was good and I think the cars seemed to be able to genuinely stay closer to each other. There were definately more slipstreaming overtaking moves in this race, so it's thumbs up so far on the new rules.

Looks like a great 2009 in F1 lies ahead of us. If the Barcelona GP is anything other than a bore-fest, we'll know for sure.

Squiffy.

The gall of the man

I've just heard Gordon Brown say what a mistake it was for RBS to take over ABN Amro, saying that it cost £80 billion, and now RBS is worth £10 billion. He says that obviously due diligence wasn't done properly.

For RBS read LLoyds, for ABN Amro read HBOS and the situation is the same. Who was it who pushed through this merger? Gordon Brown, and the complaints have been about a lack of due diligence. The man has no shame.

Squiffy.

Formula 1 Shakedown 2

As promised, a preview of the remaining 5 teams follows.

Toro Rosso

This team was the surprise of the 2008 season, managing to pull out the surprise win at Monza. It showed that small teams can still make it in F1, although this is disguising the fact that the car was largely the same as the Red Bull. The RB5 (on which the STR4 is based) is looking better than its predecessor (more on that later). The team will be using the Ferrari engine again this year, which gave it the edge of the senior team last year, let's see if the Renault engine falls behind again this year.

Again it's a time of Seb's. Out goes the wunderkind Sebastien Vettel, in comes the rookie Sebastien Buemi. It will be tough for Buemi as he has big shoes to fill, and as the only rookie the pressure will really be on. For his French counterpart, Sebastian Bourdais it will also be a difficult year. This year he has to put the difficulties behind him,take over as the number 1 and show what he's made of. Soon, the IndyCar championships will be a memory if he can't deliver this year.

Red Bull

Overshadowed by its junior team last year, this year the team has to deliver. So far the Adrian Newey effect has not paid off, but this year could be different. He has been usually very good at interpretating new rules and creating a fantastic car, such as the McLaren MP/4-13 in 1998. It's only when the rules are stable that he can push the envelope too far and go down a wrong route. The car this year does look quite different to the others and may be about to make a splash. Can Newey reclaim his mantle as designer extraordinaire? Not sure, the testing times look like it could get to the top of the midfield.

This year, Sebastien Vettel can build upon his reputation from last year. If he can regularly get the car on the podium I think he will cement his status as future world champion. It all depends on the man on the other side of the garage. If Mark Webber blows Vettel away as he has to all other team mates, then Webber will show that he should have been in a top team and Vettel's status will be diminished. If the opposite happens it could be the end of Webber's dreams of a top team and foreshorten his career. 2009 is make or break for Mark Webber.

Williams

It's been a tough few years for my favourite team. Times are still tough as their primary backers have suffered through the credit crunch. If there is a year for this team to find it's feet again it's 2009, they focused on the FW31 halfway through the 2008 season. They also may have made the right choice to use a flywheel version of KERS, it's too early to say yet. The testing pace has been great at times, showing that maybe it is time for a Williams resurgence.

For Nico Rosberg this may be his last year in Williams. If the Williams team can provide him with a good motor then we may be able to get a measure of the man, otherwise it will be another wasted year. There is no way that Rosberg can afford to stay if the car is bad, and he will probably jump to McLaren.

Kazuki Nakajima has shown a turn of speed and is regularly able to get the car home. He is regularly a couple of tenths behind his team-mate and he must get closer this year if he is to progress.

Force India

This team has shown some promise in testing, it now has the use of McLaren engines and gearbox, which will aid costs and reliability. If this team can occasionally find itself ahead of other teams then it will have done a great job.

It's amazing that Giancarlo Fisichella is still on the grid. He shows well when at the back of the grid, but falls asleep in races when he's in a top team. He's had his chance and been found wanting. This should surely be his last year.

Adrian Sutil was unlucky last year to lose out on points at Monaco, and at times as shown that he is the real deal. But at other times he's been ordinary, this year he really needs to pull out the stops.

Brawn GP

This could be the surprise of the season. After coming close to a complete no show, the team managed to get several testing sessions under their belt before arriving in Melbourne. And wow! From nowhere, the cars seemed to be the fastest. Whether this will show up in a Grand Prix, we'll have to find out in a few days time. Jenson Button thinks it's the fastest car he's driven in quite a few years, and it appears that Ross Brawn's technical and organisation genius has been brought to bear just at the right time. This could cause the biggest upset in quite a few years!

The cars look a bit bare, as they don't have the necessary sponsorship, but if the car proves to be fast expect all the real estate to be painted shortly.

For Jenson Button, it may be that he has made a very shrewd move by placing his career on the line with this team. If the car is fast, this may be his best chance to clink a world championship or at least to show that he's still a force to be reckoned with. The new cars rip the rear tyres up a bit, but Jenson's smooth driving style should be an advantage on the long runs.

It's understandable that Ross Brawn went with Rubens Barichello rather than a young gun for this year, he needs to lay some solid foundations for the future and he knows Rubens well. Hopefully both drivers will enjoy 2009 after two lousy years. Good luck to them.

Squiffy.

Formula 1 Shakedown Part 1

Similarly to last year, I thought I'd give my thoughts on the forthcoming season with a summary of what the teams look like going into this weekend's Melbourne Grand Prix.

Ferrari

The Ferrari team is looking good going into the season. The car is, again, looking like one of the fastest on the grid, although there are some worries about the reliability of the F60, especially with Ferrari's KERS device.

It looks like Felipe Massa will have a fight on his hands this year as the new car seems to be more to Kimi Raikkonen's handling. This will be partly due to the re-introduction of slick tyres, which will enable Kimi to use his oversteer style more readily. It will be great to see if Kimi can get back to his best, and take the fight to Felipe Massa. Massa should still be on top form although he also didn't cope well with the initial changes last year, but came back after two races to launch his challenge.

McLaren

When the new McLaren MP/4-24 was launched, it looked like the best looking car of the lot. It takes time to get used to the high rear wings and snow plough front wings, but McLaren looked to have produced an elegant solution. In testing however, McLaren stayed with the 2008 rear wing for too long and were struck by an absence of downforce when the 2009 rear wing was attached.

Either McLaren are sandbagging, or they really have a problem. If they do have a problem, don't expect to see them on the podium in the first few races, but if any team can pull it around it's name is McLaren.

Lewis Hamilton looks relaxed going into the season, and with the monkey off his back maybe he will eliminate some of the errors that blighted his season last year. It's going to be a testing time for him and will show whether he is a great driver outside of the car - by that I mean whether he has the technological feedback to help fix a recalcitrant car.

Heikki Kovalainen has one more year at McLaren to show that he has what it takes. If he can take the fight to Hamilton then he should be safe, but otherwise this could be a make or break year for him.

BMW Sauber

The BMW Sauber team look very good going into the season. They've been working on the KERS device for probably longer than anyone else and it is shown in their reliable testing. The times have been fast showing that they are well prepared for 2009.

Robert Kubica is also looking in good form, he was the most consistent driver of 2008 and possibly could have been champion has BMW continued to pile their efforts into the 2008 car rather than the F1.09. One thing that counts against Kubica is his size and if they run the KERS device the car will have limited scope for ballast, making corrections to help balance the car more difficult. If BMW can get around these problems then it is conceivable to see the Pole win his first world championship.

Nick Heidfeld had a terrible 2008 and was unable to match his team-mate. This year he has to show more speed, otherwise it could be his last in F1. Fortunately, his size, will aid him in his battle with Kubica, as BMW may fit the KERS device to Heidfeld's car but not to Kubica's.

Renault

When the Renault was launched it looked awful. The nose is too square and flat, and they say that ugly cars don't win (although that's not really true). From first tests, the car looked to be about two seconds off the pace but in true Renault style, they appear to have made some great leaps during the off season. The team is great at discovering lost pace, just like they did last year. So maybe Renault will surprise us.

Fernando Alonso is probably the best overall driver in the world and shows that he still has the spark to win. The car this year must win if it is to keep him on board, otherwise he could be heading to Ferrari or BMW at the end of the year if circumstances allow.

Nelson Piquet Jr had a torrid time in 2008, making more rookie mistakes than anyone else. I half expected him to be dropped for 2009, but luckily for him he's managed to keep his drive. This year he must deliver and be closer to his illustrious team mate to keep him in F1 for 2010.

Toyota

The Toyota team have been a bit of a puzzle. They have some of the best resources available to them and huge expenditure but have rarely delivered. In many cases the cars they have produced have looked a couple of years behind the game. Not so this year, the car is looking much better and has followed many of the current concepts. It will not be racing with KERS for a while, but we don't know yet whether that is a benefit or hindrance. If the team does not deliver their first win this year, I expect Toyota will go the way of Honda and pull the plug.

Jarno Trulli is also a bit of a puzzle. He is supremely quick in qualifying and naturally talented but sometimes falls asleep during a race. This may be his last chance to win a second race in F1 and he has to grab it with both hands, otherwise it could be curtains for him.

Timo Glock was a bit of a revelation in 2008. His previous spell in F1 with Jordan was not a major success and Toyota managed to gamble on him this time last year. After a shaky start, though, he seemed to settle in to Toyota and started delivering some great results. Unfortunately he will be dogged by the last corner of Interlagos 2008, and the stupid suggestion that he gave the world championship to Lewis Hamilton. He was on dry tyres on a wet race track, still kept the car on the island, and managed to gain a place by staying out on dries. He drove well. This could be the year he excels in Toyota.

A review of the next five teams will follow shortly.

Squiffy.

Are the inflation figures worrying?

Today's inflation figures are extremely worrying. The predicted fall by somewhere between 0.6% and 0.8% was exaggerated and the real fall was a mere 0.1%. With all the reductions in interest rates and home loans, that is not a great reduction. The CPI has actually gone up from 3.0% to 3.2%.

The recession should be having a large downward pressure on inflation, but it is not happening. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has cited the 28% devaluation of Sterling as a factor in the reduced effect of the recession on inflation. So are we in for a period of stagflation? Inflation with stagnation.

Stagflation would be the worst situation to find ourselves in. Unfortunately, our burgeoning debt & printing money policies will probably have a further depreciation on Sterling leading to continued high inflation. Stagnation seems to be the next stage in this economic cycle.

Squiffy.

The FIA has lost the plot

Yesterday's decisions by the World Motor Sport's Council were quite weird. Firstly, the decision to keep the points system but award the world championship to the driver with most wins is completely inconsistent.

I understand why they have decided to do it, they hope that drivers in with a shot of the world championship and winning races will go all out for the win. But how can it be sensible that driver A wins 5 races and crashes out of all other races through stupid mistakes beats driver B who wins 4 races and finishes 2nd in all 13 or 14 others? I know that example is a bit far fetched, but there will be uproar and the person who wins the world championship will not be deemed worthy.

In 2008 both Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton could have won the world championship, and Hamilton won under the points system and Massa would have won under the most wins system. But the point was that they both drove well at times, and made some silly mistakes at others. They both deserved the championship.

I think having a simple system of points along the lines of the FOTA suggestions with a greater differential for coming first would have been sufficient. Now we seriously can have two world champions a year! How bone headed.

The second decision is even more serious. To allow a voluntary cap of £30 million for the permission to have no technical restrictions is just plain barmy. The cap is very low, and most teams would have to make large redundancies. Not great in the current climate. And the drivers' salaries have to come from that £30 million too!

But what about the implications of no technical restrictions? We don't know all the details yet, but what can this mean? Can ground effects come back, can turbo engines? What has Max Mosley's driving force in the FIA been about? Safety. How can this ever square up with the lack of technical restrictions? It can't. For as long as I remember, the FIA and it's predecessor the FISA have been imposing restrictions to slow down cars for safety reasons, the teams naturally have gone to limits to recoup the speed. If those restrictions were lifted, all the old technology can come back and the cars could go 10 seconds a lap faster, containing drivers who drive without a salary (probably those traditionally at the back). Absolutely ridiculous. As Lynne Faulds-Wood used to say, it would be a grid of absolute death traps.

Of course, this is likely to be Max Mosley's usual tactic of going for something completely ridiculous in order to split the teams and then go for a compromise which is further than the teams ever wanted. I hope he doesn't succeed and the teams threaten to break-away from this annual madness.

Squiffy.

Could Mr Brown's temper be the last straw?

Yesterday the Prime Minister was interviewed on Radio 4's You and Yours programme. He came close to losing his temper with the interviewer and the phone-in callers.

We've heard of leaks from Downing Street of mobile phones being thrown across the room, sulks and shouting matches, though none of this can be substantiated. So how will this play out in a general election campaign?

Given that there are usually some difficult times for Premiers during the campaign, think of the Belgrano phone-in question to Mrs Thatcher in 1983 or the NHS clash with a mother of a bone marrow disease girl in the 2001 election campaign for Tony Blair. Never mind John Prescott's fisticuffs in the same campaign!

How will Mr Brown cope in similar circumstances? By then the recession may still be gripping the land, there will be high unemployment, maybe more bank bail-outs and the national debt will be astronomic. There may still be a push for the PMs acknowledgement that he got some things wrong.

Could it be that under the pressure of even more lack of sleep, travelling the land day and night, a stressful campaign, maybe a pseudo leadership campaign all under dire economic news, that Mr Brown verbally lashes out at a voter?

It cannot be discounted, for we have not seen the PM at the forefront of any election campaign, spearheading the BBC Question Time leader questions (I can't remember him ever being on QT) or confronted by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. We don't know how he'd react. If he does lose it, it will be game over.

Squiffy.

Sorry is such a small word

Gordon Brown came the closest he has ever done to accepting some responsibility for the economic crisis we find ourselves in, and apologising for it. But he still can't get over that final hurdle. He's still saying that this all started in America (although he won't say that to Congress!), and accepts no responsibility for allowing a mountain of debts to pervade our banking system. He even says that he's not sure that tougher regulation will have stopped the collapse, I think that a reasonable debt to capital ratio might have helped!

He won't accept responsibility for inflicting the Government with a mountain of debt before the crisis started and leaving it with few options. So which responsibility is he owning up to? Also he recognises that 'humility is needed'. Go on then, show some. Don't blather on about what is needed, just do it. Go on. Until you do, this is the narrative of the Government.

Squiffy.

Government out of control

It appears that the Government of the UK is increasingly out of control. At the weekend Harriet Harman proposed that Sir Fred Goodwin's pension be judged in the court of public opinion. What does that mean? Mob rule? And this was from a qualified lawyer! Completely bonkers.

If she were to extrapolate this new court of public opinion she'd probably find that the legality of the Iraq war would be called into question! It's obvious that she is angling for the job of leader of the Opposition after the next election.

It also appears that Lord Myners knew about the pension pot and that the deal to remove Sir Fred from RBS actually doubled the amount in exchange for a year's notice pay. In fact this actually costs more. So the anger, which seems a bit synthetic, should actually be focused like a mirror back onto the Government for handling the 'nationalisation' of RBS incompetently without doing due diligence. If they had done due diligence then it would have only needed one bank bail-out!

On top of all this and of much greater importance is the state of the general economy. As the stock markets plunge again, we find that the Government's loan guarantee scheme is still delayed (this is the most crucial measure in getting money to small businesses). Also the mortgage help, which was rushed out without much agreement from the banks, is still delayed. Other measures are also still 'in the pipeline'. It seems that this Government needs a can of Mr Muscle to remove these blockages. At the moment, the Government which 'will do everything it can to help real people in need' needs to pull its bloody finger out.

Squiffy.

The heart goes out to the Camerons

It's a sad morning in Westminster with the news that Samantha & David Cameron's son Ivan passed away in the night.

It must have been difficult for them on learning that their son had cerebral palsy, but it was obvious that they doted on their son and took pride in him.

Our thoughts are with Samantha and David through this difficult time.

Squiffy.

For anyone following the Derek Draper/blogosphere spat

This is brilliant.



Squiffy.

What is Frank Field doing on the Labour benches?

Every article that Frank Field pens shows that he's sitting on the wrong benches in the House Of Commons. Take this one from today's Independent. It could have been written by David Cameron or George Osborne and backs up what they are saying. Go on Frank, dare you.


Squiffy.

Why does it always rain?

Apologies for not blogging recently, but on returning from a weekend in Manchester I found my flat had been burgled. Apart from the general rubbish feelings that this brings, it also creates a lot of hassle in your life.

For me, I can cope with the loss of personal property as I was expecting to be burgled at some point - such is life, especially in these harder times. My partner is more distraught at the thought of someone trawling through the underwear drawer and making such a mess. No, my problem is the hassle it creates as you have to face up to a time dealing with officialdom, with strange procedure which make no sense and the constant phone calls.

So far, though, dealing with the Police has been ok, apparently our case was closed within 48 hours as there was no evidence other than a footprint on the toilet cistern. Rather disheartening, I know, to have only 2 days as an active crime! Being called at work by victim support was a surprise, and as I ran into a meeting I didn't have time but to ponder the fact that I'm now a victim with my own social group.

Sending details of the stolen items to the home insurance company was slightly annoying as after faxing the details through, there was no acknowledgment of receipt. A quick phone call eased my mind, but why couldn't I have been informed before having to pick up the phone? We'll see what happens when the claim is processed.

The aforementioned rain is from the Travis song, Why does it always rain on me? A sense of self-pity, brought on by the 'it never rains, but pours' sentiment. Apart from the burglary, my bank card has stopped working and I lost my Oyster card. It's all happened in the last few days, so while waiting for a new bank card I've had to use other ways to finance my luxurious life!

Sorting out a new Oyster card was fun, after reporing it lost I got a new one. Great, I thought, I can transfer my old tickets over to the new card. But had I filled in the form? Had I given it a password? No, the man in the tube office hadn't offered one up when I'd explained my situation. No matter that I'd had to go to the next tube station along, as the one I usually used was closed all weekend for engineering works. I popped into another station for the form, to find a man in the kiosk sat behind a sign saying 'Information Only. For tickets use the machine'. I think he may have been able to have read out the headlines to the News Of The World, as reading that seemed to be his job, but for handing out a form from the drawer next to his right hand - that's just too much.

Anyway, I've got my Oyster card now. And a new laptop, although that didn't have my name on the packaging - checking with work's post room made sure that I got it, means that I should be able to resume my blogging.

Hopefully the rain will move away now.


Squiffy.

What will Gordon Brown's legacy be?

It may seem premature to be asking such a question, but let's look forward to July 2010 when, according to the opinion polls, we'll be governed by David Cameron's Tories.

It all depends on what happens to the economy over the next year. If Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are right in their predictions then we'll have had one year of a recovery and they will be classed as brilliant minds who managed to pull Britain out of a deep recession or maybe even a depression. Gordon Brown will be a Chancellor par excellence. Also, if they are right then they will probably deserve to win the next election and we will be thinking that history has been cruel to them.

My own opinion differs somewhat from the above! Already, the economy seems to be much worse than the pre-budget report set out. If we do start growing in the third quarter of this year, I'll go out and buy a lovely hat, bake it and have it with some HP sauce. I think the economy will get worse during this year and maybe, just maybe, at the bottom of the cycle by year's end. This means that a recovery may be under way come the election, but the price will have been many billions of pounds seemingly squandered which made not one iota of difference to the recession. The public will be angry looking at the increased taxes which will be heading their way like a heat seeking missile.

Given my view, as it is, I think Gordon Brown will be seen in a similar light to Herbert Hoover. He took over in a boom and left in a recession. The previous years were all ruled by Republicans who did not spot the inflating bubble. Gordon Brown's tenure as Chancellor will be shaped by this view too. He mentioned the housing bubble in 2005 and did nothing to deflate it. People who still say that he was a good Chancellor will have differing views come 2015.

What of his other achievements as PM? It's pretty hard to think of them. He promised change, and we got change - a recession - but I'm not sure that was the intention. He was going to get rid of spin and sleeze, well I don't think that's been achieved. The announcment of reductions in British troops during the Tory Party Conference in 2007 put paid to spin, and now the big spinners are back in GB's tent. Sleeze is back with a vengeance now that four Labour peers have been accused of taking cash for changes to legislation.

What else? A big new housebuilding scheme - very unlikely given the economic circumstances. Eco-towns, struck down by Nimbyism. Great Britain day - disappeared. NHS constitution, ok I'll give him that - but until it makes a difference to the care people receive we'll have to wait and see.

I think that history will see him as a bad Chancellor and a desperately bad PM, characterised by high taxes, shocking waste, dithering, a complete lack of empathy, arrogance and bad temper.

Squiffy.

No More Inflationary Tory Boom and Bust

The Prime Minister was on the today programme this morning being interview by Evan Davies. At one point Evan asked him about the now legendary phrase of 'no return to boom and bust', and the PM couldn't - just couldn't - bring himself to say that it had been a mistake to utter those words.

When he said the words some voters may have been convinced, and went out on a spending borrowing splurge leading now to a greater boom and greater bust. So apart from being a factual mistake now that we're in 'bust' - he may have actually influenced behaviour to make it more likely.

It's funny that when we all realised we were heading for a recession Gordon Brown then started inserting the word Tory into the phrase - 'no more Tory boom and bust'. As if that means anything to the people who are now having their pay cut and are losing their jobs. Incidentally, it would be impossible for Gordon Brown to bring about a tory boom and bust as he was a Labour Chancellor. So that was some weird kind of thinking.

This morning he's changed the phrase again to 'no more inflationary boom and bust'. Oh well, that's ok then. It's so much better to be in a credit crunch, possibly deflationary boom and bust than an inflationary boom and bust. I don't think so. At least with an inflationary boom and bust we know which levers to pull. Gordon Brown is like the signal man in the 'The Great St Trinians Train Robbery', randomly pulling the levers without knowing which way the next train is going, when it's coming back and which way it's facing. He's mistaking activity with effectiveness.

One last point, yesterday Adair Turner - the new chair of the FSA - stated that new rules for banks would ensure that they increased capital in the good years to cope with less income in the bad years. Maybe he should apply that to Governments too and tell the PM, then maybe we wouldn't be looking at £1 trillion debt over the next few years.

Over and out.

Squiffy.

Ron Dennis to head the FIA?

Ron Dennis has announced that he is stepping down from the team principal role within McLaren. Last year while Max Mosley was embroiled in his 'strapped for cash' he said that he would not seek re-election as FIA president but I think he will do a U-turn and stand again. He likes the power.

I've just had a cheeky thought. Maybe Ron Dennis should stand for FIA president, probably against Max. The two men loathe each other, and after 2007's McLaren punishment it would be sweet justice for Ron to oust Max.

Sometimes dreams do come true.

Squiffy.

The Euro is a matter of foreign policy

I've just caught up with today's Daily Politics. Denis MacShane seemed to be affronted that it was William Hague who made a statement about the Tory party position on joining the Euro rather than George Osborne.

I don't see the problem. Membership of the Euro is a matter of economics and foreign policy, they are intertwined. Proponents of joining the Euro don't seem to think that ceding part of your economic policy affects sovereignty. I think it does.

Let's see how the Pigs do (Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain) coping with the recession within the constraints of the Euro.

Now back to Most Haunted Live.

Squiffy

KC/DC?

Most of the speculation around Westminster and the right of centre blogs revolves about the forthcoming Shadow Cabinet reshuffle. So I thought I'd add my own thoughts.

It's unusual for a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle to be so anticipated, usually they pass with only a small amount of comment. Of course this time the speculation has been mounting on the Ken Clarke Question? Should David Cameron bring Ken Clarke back?

The Tory right are fuming at the prospect of bringing this Europhile back into a front bench position, but should they be wary of Ken Clarke? In the Euro wars which inflicted so much damage on the Tory party, the right won. The Tories now oppose nearly every integrationist treaty and Euro membership. If Maastrict had happened now, the Tories would oppose. The Europhile wing of the party is vastly reduced in number and has virtually no sway on the party.

So should the right fear setting the cats amongst the apple cart by bringing back Ken Clarke? I don't think so. Unlike the Major Government when Europhiles and Europhobes were pretty much in equal number and tearing the party apart on a daily basis, the issue is resolved. It would be up to Ken to tow the party line, and any attempts to tie DC's hands over a Euro issue would be resolved with KC's exit. Ken Clarke would know this from the outset.

So what benefits could be gained? He was a fine Chancellor who did leave the present Government a golden legacy, he speaks with authority and he's a man of the people and not a part of the Notting Hill set. It has been a tragedy that this man has not been on the front line, and he is partly to blame for not wanting to put the hours in tackling the Government on a daily basis. But his presence, in the Business brief would soup up the Tory attack now, and they need it...

In one way, Gordon Brown bringing back Peter Mandelson was a sign that the Labour party could be reconciled after the TB-GBs. Bringing back Ken Clarke would be a sign that the Tories are back as a fully fighting force after the Euro wars.

So bring it on.

On a similar note, who else should be brought back and who should be let go. It's a shame David Davis did his foolish (but honourable) resignation last year, because he should be the next Home Secretary but I can't see DC giving him another chance this side of an election. I'd bring back Patrick Mercer too as he speaks with authority on defence. I think it's time for Caroline Spelman to go back to the back benches for a while, and so too Peter Ainsworth, he's just been too invisible. I wouldn't get rid of Alan Duncan, he's also got the common touch when explaining the Government's mess.

Anyway, my tuppence.

Squiffy.

Politicians in disguise

The world has gone mad. Gordon Brown has said that he thinks Optimus Prime from the transformers would solve most of our problems. The Tories have countered saying that Brown's got more in common with Decepticon. Is this the level of our political discourse? Maybe it's time for a new cartoon, Optimus Prime Mentalist vs DeceptiCam.

Squiffy.

Let's learn to save

Yesterday's announcement by David Cameron that the Tories are to propose abolishing basic rate tax on the interest earned on savings has got to be welcomed. Many people throughout the land have saved their money so that they can enjoy a good retirement living off the interest. And while the young 'uns, like myself, welcome lower Interest rates so that our mortgages are cheaper, it can decimate a pensioner's income. Reducing the tax on interest won't solve the problem, but it can certainly help.

There is also the moral case that someone shouldn't be taxed on earnings and then taxed again if they choose to save it rather than spend it. It will inevitably get taxed when it gets spent anyway, though VAT. This Government inherited a household savings ratio of nearly 10% of income in 1997, which is now down to just below 2%, showing just how much our savings culture has all but vanished. With figures also showing that household debt has ballooned is it any wonder why we're in a credit crunch built recession?

We need to learn to save again and rid ourselves of debt, saving to spend rather than borrowing to spend needs to be the new mantra. Let's each do our bit, I'm now going to put the money saved from the reduced mortgage interest payments into paying the mortgage off sooner. The Government needs to do likewise and reduce spending on extraneous projects (not NHS and Schools, but ID cards and expensive IT projects) and reduce its borrowing.

Only then will we have learnt the lessons of this credit crunch induced recession.

Squiffy.

No time to join the Euro

In yesterday's and today's papers there are two articles about whether we should join the Euro. In yesterday's Times Oliver Kamm states that we should join now. In today's Mail Peter Oborne says that the Euro will not see another 10 years and that we should not join.

Oliver Kamm believes that the first ten years of the Euro have been a success and it is now challenging the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Peter Oborne believes that the stresses of the recession will lead to break-up of the Euro Zone and the death of the Euro.

I think it is useful to separate the Euro as a currency from EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) to align these two views.

I think that after a shaky start the Euro has indeed proved to be a successful currency. That's as it should be, representing 16 nations, now that Slovakia has joined, and 300 million people it should be successful. Many people who wish us to join the Euro believe that it should be easier to travel without changing from one currency to another, and that without the cost of changing money from one currency to another the costs to business can be reduced. For this reason the Euro looks attractive.

EMU is the overarching principle for which the Euro was created. One single market, one currency and one central bank to align the economies of Europe. Thus far, though, EMU has only had to contend with relatively benign economic conditions.

The next few years will determine whether EMU and the Euro have a long term future. There are four main levers that Governments use to affect their economy; Interest Rates, Exchanges Rates, Tax Rates and spending. EMU has removed control over Interest Rates and influence on exchange rates and so Euro Land Governments only have control over their spending and tax levels. If the Euro Zone countries cannot effectively manage their tax and spending in these difficult times strains will be placed on EMU and the central bank. The central bank has to cope with the demands from 16 different countries and may not be able to help as much as necessary. Stresses may become amplified in such circumstances (such as those that affected Britain's exit from the ERM).

Countries which were closely aligned when EMU was launched should cope well, those that fudged their budgets and entry criteria to become members of the club may find themselves diverging from the economies of the Euro Zone and finding it ever more difficult.

If EMU survives with all 16 members still operating the Euro at the end of the recession, then it will have passed the test and may become the world's reserve currency (although I think the Chinese Yuan is more likely to supplant the Dollar) . Otherwise Peter Oborne will be proved right.

Until the recession is over and we're well into recovery it is too early to say which is right. For now, I prefer to have all four economic levers at our disposal even if our Government are not using them correctly!

Squiffy.

10 predictions for 2009

Here's some predictions for 2009, let see if I can do better than 4 points for 2008!

1. There will be no general election in 2009. Although Gordon Brown will have been lining up a May/June election for seven months, the polls won't look good enough to risk it, and so GB will go until the last moment in 2010.
2. The recession will last throughout 2009.
3. Several other high street names will experience problems. I'm guessing at HMV, W.H.Smiths, and Robert Dyas. I just hope I'm wrong.
4. Interest rates will reduce to 0.5%, the CPI will also go down to 0.5%, and the RPI will briefly go negative.
5. Robert Kubica will win the F1 World Championship.
6. A bad set of economic figures in the beginning of the year will signal a reversal to Labour's recovery, the polls will go back to a good Tory position of Con 45%, Lab 26%, LD 17% by year's end.
7. Ken Clarke will come back as shadow Business secretary.
8. David Blunkett will come back as Home Secretary.
9. The Tories will win the Local/Euro elections on a percentage share of 43%. Labour will get 22% with the LibDems at 26%.
10. Peter Mandelson will be forced to resign over some business dealings as EU Comissioner.

Squiffy.

Let's mark last year's predictions

In January I made some predictions for 2008. Let's see how I got on...

1. Gordon Brown's government will continue to unravel slowly. By the end of the year, the polls will look like Labour 28%, Lib Dems 18%, Tories 45%.
If I'd taken the snapshot in August this would have been true, the bank bail out seemed to reverse the position - though I don't think for too much longer. 1/2 point

2. The economy will slow, but avoid a recession. GDP for 2008 will be 1.5%.
Wrong. We're in recession. 0 points.

3. Interest rates will end the year on 4.5%, CPI 1.9%, RPI 3.9 %.
Wrong. Interest rates are 2%, CPI 4.1%, RPI 3.0%. 0 points.

4. Several ministers will resign, stating irreconcilable differences of opinion with the PM.
Wrong. Somehow, they all stuck in there. 0 points.

5. Charles Clarke, Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers will all pipe up asking for a real revolution in New Labour and stating that GB is not the change the country needs.
Right. They did ask for this through the beginning of the year. 1 point.

6. Nick Clegg will move the Lib Dems to the right whilst being put under pressure from his party for moving too far.
Half right, he did move the party to the right. 1/2 point.

7. Funding scandals will claim a scalp on the Labour and Conservative front benches. Probably Peter Hain, but not George Osborne.
Right. This was not the Yachtgate affair but I got this one right. 1 point.

8. Barack Obama will face John McCain and beat him to become President-Elect by the end of the year.
Spot on. When everyone though Hilary would win, and John McCain was out of it. 1 point.

9. Ken Livingstone narrowly beats Boris Johnson for Mayor of London.
Wrong, but who'd have thunk it? 0 points.

10. Kimi Raikkonen wins the F1 championship by 10 points from Lewis Hamilton. Felipe Massa comes third, Fernando Alonso fourth, Heikki Kovalainen fifth and Nick Heidfeld sixth.
Wrong. Kimi was with the fairies and Lewis claimed it in spectacular fashion. I'm glad I was wrong. 0 points.

Overall, 4 points. Not too bad but I think the events of September skewed quite a few outcomes. Tomorrow for the 2009 predictions!.

Squiffy.

Could we be in store for a May/June General Election?

Many commentators are wondering if there will be an early election, possibly in February 2009. I don't think that will happen, the history of elections in cold February point to the ruling party losing out. It could be advantageous to Labour though as it's likely that the recession will get worse before it gets better, and as it gets worse the polls could swing against Labour's recovery.

I think the timing of the withdrawal of troops from Iraq may be pointing to a May or June election. Normally you wouldn't play politics with the armed services, but Gordon Brown has form - remember his visit to Iraq to announce the return of 1000 troups during the Tory Party conference of 2007?

I think Gordon Brown will want to ride the wave of gratitude to the troops on their return and put the whole error of the Iraq war behind him. After their return the pressure will be on for a full inquiry into the lead up to the war and its conduct. If he delays an election to 2010, the outcome of any inquiry could be very embarrassing at the very moment when he goes to the country.

Also, the month of May has often seen General Elections, as the season of Spring brings forward feelings of optimism. The elections of 1997 and 2005 were in May and the 2001 election probably would have be had it not been for Foot and Mouth creating a delay.

Of course there are European Elections in June, so Gordon Brown may want to combine all the elections into one and create less spending/hassle for the councils. Saving money isn't really in GB's nature though so he may still go for May.

Squiffy.

How low can you go?

That's a question for Sterling. For the last six days the Pound has dropped to increasingly record lows against the Euro. It has now plunged by 30% in the last few months, even the drop when the currency was withdrawn from the ERM was not as great.

The worry is that the low value of sterling will create the need for higher interest rates than would be good for times in a recession. But why is the pound plunging? Because our economy is in a terrible state, and the markets know it! The huge levels of debt is creating a lack of confidence, where others such as Germany have until recently been running a surplus.

I'm afraid that the pound will continue to drop whilst the Government fanny about with small measures and extra borrowing. They need to solve the credit crunch before tinkering at the edges of VAT, the Tories' Loan Guarantee Scheme would be one such solution. Unfortunately the Government seem determined to land the future tax payers with a level of debt greater than those from World War 2. We're doomed Mr Mainwaring.

Squiffy.

There EU go again

Not very surprising, I know, but the decision by the Irish Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, to hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Constitutional treaty just typifies why the EU doesn't do democracy. The Irish people voted against the ratification of the Lisbon treaty by a margin of 54% to 46%, but are now going to be asked to think again. I bet there wouldn't be a second referendum had they voted in favour!

It's been happening for a while now, when the EU doesn't get a result it wants from a referendum the result is simply ignored (as in the case in France over the Lisbon treaty who then ratified it) or the question is put again. The Yes camp invariably says that there was a lot of scare mongering about proposals and, true, sometimes some of the predicted horrors are some way from the truth. But both sides are culpable, the British weren't exactly told the truth about our own referendum in 1975 (when I was two years old!), little did we know that we would be put on a course of political union rather than the free tree block most thought we would be joining.

Luckily for the Irish, they at least can express a view. We have been denied ours from the Government's election manifesto. Regardless of the merits and pitfalls of the Lisbon treaty, I urge the people of Ireland to vote the treaty down to demonstrate to the faceless bureaucrats that democracy matters and ignoring the wishes of the people cannot be treated lightly.

Come forth EU democracy.

Squiffy.

It's bloody awful

The key message from today's Pre-Budget report. The amount of borrowing is truly astronomical leading to a total of £1 trillion debt.

Ok, so the answer to my previous question was that the Government doesn't care about strict rules on keeping budget details under wraps. The only major figure not leaked was the 0.5% increase in National Insurance Contributions. A tax paid by employees and employers just as they will (hopefully) be leading the country out of recession.

I'm highly sceptical that the VAT reduction will work and I also think the economy will go down before it rises again - so the timing may be all wrong for a stimulus.

Just like the last three budgets (including PBR's), I think this budget will quickly unravel. The NIC and 45% tax is a timebomb waiting to go off as the Government heads to the left.

I think this may be a game changer, but probably not in the Governments direction.

Squiffy.

PBR Leaks

The leaking of the cut in VAT and proposed increase in high rate tax to 45% for those earning more than £150,000 have been widely leaked. The fact that they have been picked up by most newspapers and broadcast media suggests that the leaks have come from the Government. But why?

It years gone by, this would be nearly a criminal act, but in recent years small details have been leaked to the press. It is wrong and the city takes a very dim view on it. This time big measures have been leaked - either the Government doesn't care about previous procedures, is completely incompetent with details or is trying to wrong foot George Osborne.

I wouldn't be surprised if the VAT cut is not announced and another measure takes its place. This would be almost unheard of, but they really want to knock George Osborne off his feet as his prepared response has to be ditched!

Which reason will be revealed in the next hour.

Squiffy.

VAT to 15%

If the papers are to be believed, we are in for a cut of VAT to 15% in tomorrow's Pre-Budget report.

I'm not an economist, but I don't think it is going to work. Firstly, making items slightly cheaper isn't going to make everybody to rush out and buy goods when the economy looks dreadful. I also think that the drop in prices would have a bigger effect on inflation than desired.

If you're going to have fiscal stimulus package you need to put a large amount of money, a windfall, in people's hands. Some people would save the money, but a lot of people would go out and spend it.

Gordon Brown last week mentioned that the bigger threat to the economy now is deflation rather than inflation. Wouldn't the cut in VAT compound this possible problem?

What happens if none of this works? Another stimulus package, more borrowing and lots more tax later.

Squiffy.

Back to the Future

The 80's are upon us, the BBC should start re-running Dallas and Dynasty. Shoulderpads will be back, along with the mullets, perms and rock ballads.

To aid us in this trip down memory lane, the two big political parties have obliged by reverting to 80's economic policies. Labour has ditched the policies of golden rules and trying to balance the books (although they did this a while ago but didn't admit it). In fact they have for the last few years been doing the old tax-and-spend tango, with a quick chassé of tax cuts before the big tax rises after the next election.

The Tories have catapulted the policy of sharing the proceeds of growth and reverted to 'sound' money, only allowing tax cuts paid for by savings in the current budget. It's back to Thatcher.

So as we listen to Duran Duran, there is now a clear dividing line in politics again. The past two elections have been fought with Labour standing in the centre and the Tories to the right - a position which it could never win from, which is why the Tories also had to move to the centre. But now the Labour party have moved to the left, and so the Tories can move to the right and still win.

I'm hoping the British public will see through the current boost for the Government and appreciate that times will be getting significantly harder with the burgeoning debt. We need 'sound' money now more than ever.

Squiffy.

Shameful

Yesterday's performance by Gordon Brown at PMQ's was shameful. To not answer David Cameron's questions about the horrible death of baby P, and then accuse the opposition leader of party politics shows just how low this man can go. Tony Blair would have handled the situation with his usual aplomb.

If anyone still believes that this man has the necessary requirements to be Prime Minister, then think again.

Squiffy.

Gordon Brown's 18 percent

This week at PMQ's Gordon Brown re-iterated a figure that he used in the previous week's PMQs. He has now stated twice that UK interest rates rose to 18% on the day of Black Wednesday.

On the day of Black Wednesday, interest rates started the day at 10%, went up to 12%, then up to 15% before we withdrew from the ERM. After that decision in the evening, they went down again to 12% before diving to around 6% within several months. Gordon Brown is supposed to be a master of figures but these lapses show either that he's not up to basic economic facts, economic history, or honesty. Either way, it shows that he's not the man to guide us through troubled times.

Squiffy.

My Presidential Prediction

Tonight it's the US general election and I'm still sticking to my prediction of a win for Barrack Obama. I'm predicting a popular vote of 52% for Obama and 44% for McCain, and 340 electoral votes for Obama with the remaining votes going to McCain.

If this happens it will be consistent with my prediction for the election from the beginning of the year. Back then I predicted an Obama vs McCain fight with Obama coming out on top - this was when Hillary Clinton was the overwhelming favourite for the Democratic nomination and McCain was out of it for the Republicans.

A strange fact was unearthed in the Times this week. In all Presidential elections, apart from 1960, a Democrat has won the presidency when a Brit has won the F1 world championship!

Squiffy.

Wow!

As an avid Formula 1 fan, I'm really glad that I got my prediction wrong at the start of the year. I thought that Kimi Raikkonen would be even stronger this year after finally winning the championship in 2007. I was wrong, gladly.

The race today, in Brazil, was fantastic. Even if Felipe Massa had won, the race would have been momentous. Massa would have been a great champion, but as a Brit I'm ecstatic that Lewis Hamilton won. After missing out with bad luck (from a dodgy gearbox) last year, this year he deserved it after some fantastic drives in Monaco and Silverstone. Also he deserved to win after losing a total of 7 points to Massa after being penalised unfairly by the FIA at Spa (overtaking Raikkonen) and Fuji (Bourdais being penalised for Massa's dodgy move).

The race was brilliant and heart stopping. After sitting in despair with two laps to go, thinking how could it go wrong again - just like last year - to complete elation on the last corner before checkered flag.

The champagne is flowing tonight.

Squiffy.

Those golden (chipboard) rules

Alistair Darling has announced that the Government is not going to be applying the golden rule (to keep borrowing below 40% of GDP) and the sustainable investment rule (to balance the books over an economic cycle) rigidly. Well you could blow me down with a feather, the Government stopped following the rules rigidly in 2001 when they started plowing money into this and that.

At first, the Government created PFI projects which took debt off the books (although the future debt will be with us for years). They took the nationalisation of Network Rail off the public books, the nationalisation of Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley are likely to be taken off too. Public sector pension liabilities have also been removed. If you add all that up the borrowing is well above 100% of GDP. Bye Bye golden rule.

As the Government borrowed more money while the economy was growing, the sustainable investment rule looked under threat. So the Government changed the start point of what is termed the economic cycle. All the while stating that they had got rid of boom and bust, so they really didn't believe that the economic cycle still existed. The present oncoming recession has now changed all that. The economic cycle has reasserted itself - it had never really gone away.

So never mind that the Government didn't understand when the economic cycle started, they didn't understand the economic cycle. Full Stop. Which is why we're in such a mess; investors have decided that UK Plc is a bad bet and are selling Sterling and buying Dollars at a startling rate. Bye Bye sustainable investment rule.

The Government keep saying that the current economic turbulence started in America which is true. Unfortunately they don't say that over the last 10 years, politicians have believed their own statements of "no more boom and bust" and allowed the economy to be built on a house of (credit) cards, it only needed one shock to bring the whole edifice falling down. The US Government bringing down Lehman Brothers was that shock.

The Government is culpable for letting borrowing get out of control in a boom, and they think spending more of our money on the tick is the answer. Borrowing always increases in a recession, but usually from a low base - this time it's from high levels and will need some strict management to get the books balanced again when the economy starts to recover. This Government doesn't understand basic housekeeping, they only understand how to spend other people's money. Will somebody rid us of this turbulent Government?

Squiffy.

Brilliant

What if all music followed the videos?

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

Squiffy.

The party season

Apologies for it being so long to make a post, it's been a very busy time for me. Working hard, getting married and then a honeymoon.

Unfortunately, I missed the Lib Dem conference as I was still away. I did manage to catch Nick Clegg's speech, however, and he was trying to do the same as David Cameron last year - unfortunately I saw the autocue at the back of the conference hall.

The speech seemed to be fine, and secured his place as Lib Dem leader. Promising tax cuts is a great idea, although looks highly optimistic in the current economic turmoil. Especially as Vince Cable's plan for any bank in trouble is Nationalisation.

The Labour Party conference seemed less fevered than I expected, although I was not in the bars and meeting rooms afterwards. The speeches were not very exciting, although the happy chipmunk - Hazel Blears - made a good speech.

Gordon Brown did his best speech ever, and came up with the best line of the conference season - "No time for a novice". He still manages, though, to make me want to throw something at the TV screen when he tells some mis-truths. His whole little section on universal and women's suffrage was full of inaccuracies (being generous) or lies (being truthful).

I think he has secured his position for the time being, the financial situation seems to have given him a new narrative as the man of experience. The talk of 'change' on the steps of 10 Downing Street on becoming PM, must now be fully consigned to the dustbin - he is now the man of continuity.

The Conservative party conference has had to content with the backdrop of dire financial turmoil and this has made it difficult to be heard. Nevertheless, I believe the tone has been right - sober but sound, non-complacent but confident.

David Cameron's hastily written little speech on Tuesday was a masterstroke, he looked statesmanlike offering bipartisan co-operation. All that is pretty irrelevant, but ensuring 2 minutes on the daily news cycle after the bailout package was voted down by Congress was brilliant.

Today's speech by David Cameron was again excellent and fitted the mood of conference. It was on a par with last year's fantastic effort but against a completely different set of circumstances - showing that he catch the mood when necessary.

At the current moment the polls show that the Tory party lead is down to roughly 10 points, but as Mike Smithson says on the PoliticalBetting.com the Labour party always gets a 7% boost after conference. I do believe that within a week, the polls will be similar to those before the conference season - only changes by the economic turmoil will sustain through the polling period.

Let's see what happens next week.

Squiffy.

Will the re-writing of the rules be the real Black Wednesday moment?

There has been a lot of speculation surrounding the re-writing of the two fiscal rules that Gordon Brown has used to underpin the economy for the last eleven years. The speculation stems from the fact that the Government does not have enough money to handle the downturn without breaking the Golden Rule.

There has also been past talk of Gordon Brown's Black Wednesday, from myself too. I suspect that if the rules get re-written we will really witness the Black Wednesday moment. It will be the point in time when the Government's economic policy is destroyed completely.

If only the Government had actually stuck to it's rules and planned for the bad times, their policy would have worked. But they didn't - so it won't. And another thing, I'm not an economist, but how can the current economic cycle be ending now and have started in 1997? In 1997 the economy had been growing for 4 years and was looking towards 11 years more growth - surely the cycle started in 1990 when we were heading into recession! Maybe that's why I'm not an economist.

Anyway, watch out for the Brown Wednesday when the rules get re-written. It will happen.

Squiffy.

And as if by magic

A month or so ago I railed against new yellow markings at Kilburn tube station showing where the doors would be when a train stopped.

I disliked the way that the only advantage that the trod upon London commuter had in knowing where the doors were had been taken away, as well as the possibility for accident on a crowded platform of everyone surrounding small areas.

On Monday night, YouGov asked me what I would suggest as policies for Boris Johnson to pursue. Imagine my surprise on Tuesday when all the yellow markings had disappeared. Someone out there is listening - not to me though probably.

Also, incidentally, I asked for Boris to scrap bin taxes (although it's not in his power) and encourage council tax rebates for recycling. Two days later, George Osbourne announced a similar policy. Common sense seems to be prevailing.

Squiffy.

Come on Ireland

The initial signs from the Irish Referendum on the EU Constitution Lisbon Treaty are that it has been rejected. Hurrah!

It will be a good kick in the teeth for all those Governments, including our own, that reneged on their pledge to provide a referendum.

Unfortunately, this will not be the end of it. In an earlier post, I talked about the modus operandi that occurs in the EU. We will be able to watch it again. I would be surprised if the Irish are not given a second chance...to vote 'correctly' this time. If that does not happen or they vote 'No' for a second time, then the provisions in the treaty will find their way into law by other channels. The EU has form on this.

For all the talk of reform to Europe, there has been none. If only they took this as a chance to listen and find out from the EU citizens what we really want from the EU then they could provide referenda that we would happily pass. Alas, the political Elite think they know best and that we have no idea. So watch it all happen again.

I'll just have to revel (hopefully) in the EU's discomfort while I can!

Squiffy.

A surreal kind of day

It's been an unusual day. Last night I had some drinks with a group of friends, so I wasn't on top form today, but the day went a bit weird at around 12.50 today.

At that time the news came that David Davis had resigned as an MP. I was shocked, was there a personal skeleton in the closet? Had he become sickened by last nights vote on 42 days detention? Was he going to stand again?

After listening to Radio 5 live I found the truth. His speech was heart warming and resonated with everything I feel about civil liberties. I felt that here we had a courageous man who would put the good of the country before his own betterment. As the day wore on, it just started to feel strange. I can't remember anyone else doing this.

I just wonder that if Labour do not field a candidate, and it's not hard to think that they will be gutless, it will be a pointless gesture. Watching coverage on the telly, it looks like there is a focus on possible differences with David Cameron. Maybe it will blow over and the civil liberties discussion will re-invigorate politics. I hope so, but I fear that he might have made a big error. Which would be a shame as he's a very likeable politician.

Squiffy.

Raise a clog to Mr Timpson

Well done Mr Timpson on your by-election victory. The scale of the majority was in excess of what I predicted (roughly 5000), so I must congratulate you, David Cameron and the Tory team for making the victory so emphatic.

Maybe the Tory party can now learn from this for future by-elections and test it out again in Henley. They should hope to increase their majority.

It does seem that New Labour has now ceased to be the force it once was. There will now be open back-biting and Gordon Brown is living on borrowed time. It's over.

Squiffy.

How can the Labour Party turn this around?

How can the Labour Party improve its fortunes? I think the only way to do this is to start with the premise that Gordon Brown won't be able to do it. They also need to take a look at the route the Tories took.

Firstly, they need to recognise another coronation will not be able to do it. It got better for Michael Howard but the Tories still lost the election. The public will probably not take to a second unelected Prime Minister. Secondly, there needs to be an image switch away from the characters of the old guard from the Blairite/Brownite division.

The best way to do this would be to have an election in the same way the Tories did after the 2005 defeat. Although David Cameron was relatively unknown, the leadership election gave the Tories some great coverage and gave DC momentum to win - a momentum that carried him through when he gained the leadership. There needs to be an open debate about direction.

Only then will the Labour Party recover, but will they do this? I doubt it. The Labour Party does not regicide, so GB will probably trundle on. If it does do the unthinkable, they will probably go with someone associated with the past, Jack Straw maybe?

One thing that I find ironic in recent history, the Tory party splits along policy lines but has the will to depose it's leader. The Labour party splits along personality and characters, but will not get rid of their leader.

Squiffy.

Crewe & Nantwich

It's been fascinating watching the Crewe & Nantwich by-election campaign. I'm 35 years old and I've never seen the Tories gain a seat off another party at a by-election, but this time it seems like it might happen.

The Labour campaign has been disgusting. Apart from the Tory Toff's element, there has also been the raising of immigration and I read that they were saying that Edward Timpson was a friend of paedophiles because he had defended some in his job as a barrister.

When Labour is defeated on Thursday, the recriminations will fly. It's going to get even more rocky for Gordon Brown. Rumours today said that Alan Milburn is going to challenge for the leadership if Labour do spectacularly badly.

Each week seems to bring bad news for Gordon Brown and Labour. It feels more febrile than the dog days of John Major. How much longer before he is ousted?

Squiffy.

Well Done Boris

After a short break, I'm back. Congratulations to Boris Johnson for winning the London Mayoralty, I said to a friend that it would be a 6% lead and it proved to be correct.

The country's mood has changed and it is irreparable for Gordon Brown. We will now see his Government collapse like a flan in a cupboard. The knives are already beginning to show.

I think Boris Johnson will prove to be much better than we first thought, and be an effective Mayor. There will be a blaze of announcements over the next few days.

The Tories are officially back in business.

Squiffy.

BBC calls it a 20% lead for the Tories

So, it's 44% Tory, 24% Labour and 25% LibDem. It show's the recent opinion polls have been roughly right and that this is the nadir of Labour's support. It is just like 1995. Even being beaten into third.

More than 200?

The Tories have taken Southampton and are now up by 49 seats. Amazing! It's only 0:49 am.

Wow, 200+ for the Tories

It was seen as difficult for the Tories to gain 200 seats. It now looks plausible. It's looking bad for Labour and so-so for the Lib Dems.

Squiffy.

Looking good so far

Con 8 councils
Lab 1 council
LD 1 council
NOC 1 council

Love it!

Election day, and I'm excited. I really like election day, and I'm going to try and watch the election night special on BBC 1. It's just started and I think Boris is going to win by 6%, Tories gain 170 seats, Labour lose 150 and Lib Dems lose 20.

Should be fun!

Squiffy.

Absolutely Brilliant

Squiffy.

Are we watching 1990 to 1997 replayed in double speed?

It struck me the other day that the similarities between the present Government's problems and the problems of John Major's Government are similar but being played out a double speed.

Both leaders came into office after a coup had forced out the previous thrice election winning incumbent, and quickly saw their initial popularity wane as they were deemed useless compared to their illustrious predecessor. But the similarity does not end there...

After John major's election as leader of the Tory party, that he became a very popular figure for a short while and was able to pull off the spectacular coup of a fourth Tory election victory. There could be a similarity here with Gordon Brown's initial popularity which lasted a short 5 months.

There then followed an economic upheaval as Britain was forced (thankfully) out of the ERM. For Brown, this could be deemed his Northern Rock moment. From that moment on, Major's and Brown's popularity plummeted.

John Major then had to pass the Maastrict treaty against some rebels in his party, the Constitution anybody?

For John Major, the following Budget brought in tax rises in a very unpopular way. The addition of VAT to fuel was in the words of Sir Humphrey, 'Courageous' as it hit the poorest hardest, and had to be amended (halved) for the tax proposals to pass. Are you seeing the abolition of the 10% tax rate yet?

By this point, the Tories were backstabbing, inward-looking, and not interested in unity any more. John Major had to plead for loyalty. Maybe someone should tell the PLP.

John Major had seven years in office before being booted out, at most Gordon Brown has three years. The similarities are striking. I don't think Labour will recover.

Squiffy.

10% tax, 90% trouble

Gordon Brown is in a right pickle over the abolition of the 10% tax rate. It's a problem entirely of his own making.

For some reason, Gordon Brown forgot his own Labour principles when he announced with a fanfare the decrease in the basic tax rate from 22% to 20%. He pushed principles aside to get a quick headline, achieving what Margaret Thatcher had always wanted. As usual with GB the detail was in the 2007 budget red book, and not in his speech. He had quietly forgot to mention the scrapping of the 10% tax band.

It was Gordon Brown, in 1999, who introduced the 10% tax band. It was a good measure to decrease tax for all, but was of disproportionate benefit to those on lower incomes. He now claims that he wants to simplify the tax system! It was he of course who complicated the tax system in the first place. Had GB decreased the basic rate of tax in 1999, all would have benefited and he would not be in his present mess.

Gordon Brown has made much play of his help to low earning families, but he forgets all those who don't have a child. He wants to take as much money as he can, then he give it back to you in state aid through tax credits and benefits. He knows best - or should I say - knew best. I think he has shown that his earlier political instincts have deserted him and shown him as a political opportunist. Unfortunately for Britain, he's crap at it and he's making poorer people's lives worse.

Squiffy.

Gwyneth

It's so sad to hear of the news of Gwyneth Dunwoody's death. There's not many MPs you can appreciate across the political divide, but some can gain your respect through steadfastness and a sense of purpose - and not giving in to the prevailing wind.

Gwyneth Dunwoody was such a person, and as the chairman of the Transport select committee showed her brilliance in asking awkward questions of ministers from her own Government. She would, frequently, show her independence of spirit and would often entertain by not towing the party line.

Tonight, I feel much poorer for her passing. Heaven has gained a new straight-talking angel.

Squiffy.

Will Brown be ousted?

The short answer is No. It is practically impossible to remove a Labour Prime Minister, whereas it is easier to remove a Labour leader in opposition.

The fact that we are even beginning to ask this question must be shocking to Labour MPs, and no less to Mr Brown himself. It seems like an age ago when Mr Brown was crowned leader of the party and country, seemed at ease with himself, and had the country in the palm of his hand with his sureness of touch in dealing with initial troubles.

Since October, his political acumen has alluded him. He now does not seem like Prime Ministerial material, he is surrounded by political pygmies, and looks like he is not enjoying the job. After the non election, he asked to be given time to explain his vision. We are still waiting. After the abolition of the 10 pence tax rate, even Labour MPs are beginning to ask what is the purpose of this Government.

Today, the Guardian's leader has mentioned the PM in trouble, there are open leadership questions and Polly Toynbee now thinks that GB has not got the necessary qualities. When your former backers are now posing problems you can tell that you are in deep do do. Ask John Major.

I think we are watching Labour's endgame (for now) being played out. Only a change of leadership will raise their fortunes, but I cannot see it happening.

Squiffy.

The travails of the commuter

I arrived this morning at Kilburn tube station, just like normal, to find that the platform has yellow squares painted onto it. The idea is to show where the doors will be when the train stops. Nice idea. But please, London Transport, stop now. One of the only bonuses of being a commuter in this city is having the insider knowledge, i.e. knowing where the doors will be. Don't give away our secrets.

While I'm having this rant, I want to make a few other points. During peak hours, please stop all the announcements. I know I shouldn't smoke, there's signs everywhere. I know that I should tap my oyster card in and out. I know that Baker Street comes after St John's Wood. I know Bond Street has a change to the central line. I know to mind the gap. I know to stay behind the yellow line.

I don't need to be told every 30 seconds! Maybe this information is useful for tourists, but if they're travelling around at 8 in the morning and 6 in the evening then they must be mad.

Just like the earlier post about street furniture, please trust us to know what we're doing.

Squiffy.

Get rid of street furniture

I'm interested in the idea of removing street furniture to make our roads a safer place. As a perennial pedestrian I can see some great merits in the idea.

For the pedestrian, there's too many barriers stopping your from crossing the road at convenient points.

I can see that drivers speed as fast as they can between green traffic lights, hoping to make some progress before they hit the inevitable red. Given these overriding thoughts it's no wonder that drivers aren't paying too much attention to the pedestrians on the pavement, and accidents do happen.

The idea of removing barriers, traffic lights and a multitude of other signage is to make everybody a first class citizen of the road, and give everyone an equal chance to move at a sensible speed. It may sound mad, but experiments in the Netherlands have shown that people get to their destination quicker and accidents are reduced. As well as that, roads are clearer and it costs councils less.

A trial is going to happen in Kensington & Chelsea. I hope it's a success.

Squiffy.

Max Mosley should go

It is time for Max Mosley to resign. That is quite obvious. Now that BMW, Mercedes and Honda have criticised him, it is clear that he has lost the support of the major F1 teams.

It's interesting to note that Jean Todt has just stepped back from the front line and is being mentioned as a possible successor. Given that the FIA has been accused of Ferrari bias, is this wise? It is also to be noted that this week Ron Dennis has been giving his views on the future of F1 and interesting reading it makes.

To try to bring some balance back to F1, let's hear a cheer for Ron Dennis, President of the FIA.

Squiffy.

Has the Brown bubble now completely disappeared?

The latest opinion polls have shown the Tories with double digit leads. It seems that something seismic has occurred in the political world. It all started with the election that never was, that burst the Brown bubble, but now it seems that political good will has now evaporated.

Last week, the Budget did what was expected of it. It was the most boring budget in years, not much happened. I think, though, that it showed that in the present crisis this Government has no ideas on how to move forward and that it had boxed itself in. It has finally dawned on the public that this Government has mismanaged the economy, and has nowhere to go.

I think last Wednesday will in future be seen as this Government's Black Wednesday. The day the Government's competence was seen to be lost.

From now on, this Government is on borrowed time.

Squiffy.

What a race!

The Australian GP was fantastic. Not only did Lewis Hamilton win in great style, withstanding 3 safety car periods similarly to his maiden win in Canada, but the Ferrari drivers were made look pretty ordinary. Apart from Raikkonen's middle stint, he was out of sorts for most of the weekend. He made several unforced errors and nearly joined Felipe Massa in the wall.

There were several surprises. The McLaren seemed to be as fast, if not faster, than the Ferrari. The Honda was better than expected, as was the BMW. I think the biggest surprise, though, was that the cars looked twitchy without traction control - and quite a handful.

F1 is back, and better.

Squiffy.

Hamilton on Pole, nearly Pole on Pole

It was great to see Hamilton start the season on pole, but what a surprise to see Robert Kubica on the 2nd spot. He just missed out, and if he hadn't had a small excursion on the grass he may have made it to pole.

Looking forward to the race now.

Squiffy.

F1 2008 is here (part 2)

Completing the round up of F1.

Williams

I am a big fan of the Williams team, ever since they had Nigel Mansell driving for them. They are true racers; Frank Williams and Patrick Head are honest down to earth petrol heads and have not been persuaded, thus far, to allow a corporation to buy into their team. Maybe that was a mistake, as the team have not been close to the front for a few year, but I respect them for it.

Unfortunately, Williams suffered greatly when Adrian Newey left during 1996, and have only added one more driver's title since (and that car would have had Newey's imprint). They have won races, but apart from 2003 and not come close to their heyday. Last year they recovered from their appalling 2006 season, when they finished 8th, to rise to 4th.

Sam Michael, the technical director, seems to have settled into his role and now that the wind tunnel is calibrated correctly, has produced a promising car for this year. So far, the car looks fast and may be in the running for 3rd spot.

Nico Rosberg is a driver with a large amount of talent and hopefully should thrive with a good car underneath him. He seems to enjoy the atmosphere at the team, and personifies the 'Williams' racer. Kazuki Nakajima also shows a turn of speed if somewhat erratic. He will need to calm down and not try too hard, as once labelled as accident prone - the tag will not leave.

Renault

The Renault team should be advancing this year, after a lacklustre 2007. They will have Fernando Alonso back in the fold and that should be a boost, even if he is only around for a year. Renault lost their way last year; after having designed cars around the Michelin tyres they did not effectively change their design for the Bridgestones and suffered badly.

With a great engine and aero team behind them, Alonso and Nelson Piquet Jr should be able to run up front, although a third championship for Alonso looks unlikely. Fernando has to undo some of the damage that he did to his reputation last year and buckle down to some stellar performances. Piquet Jr was narrowly beaten to the GP2 championship in 2006 by Lewis Hamilton and so should be competitive, although I doubt whether he will be able to provide Alonso with the headaches from last year.

Toro Rosso

The Red Bull 'B' team will be starting the year with last year's car. This may give them an advantage at the start of the season as they will know the car inside out, and with the reliability problems sorted out they may outgun the 'A' team. The team will move up to the RB4 for the Turkish GP, by which time niggles with the new car should have been laid to rest. I would expect them to drop back at this point before coming back after a few races.

Sebastian Vettel will be at Toro Rosso for a full season. He's a great talent and will no doubt be plucked by one of the bigger teams at the end of the year, maybe alongside Webber at the 'A' team? After watching him at the Race of Champions it's clear that he's a future race winner.

His namesake, Sebastian Bourdais is a 4 times Champ car champion and finally gets his F1 chance. It's a shame that it has taken him so long to achieve his ambition, and I feel that he may struggle after being out of European single seaters for a while. He will have tough competition from Vettel and may find himself eclipsed.

Force India

It's been sad to see the old Jordan team going from championship contenders in 2000 to tail enders via some changes in ownership. It would be great to have EJ back in the frame, maybe as the successor to Max Mosley.

After Midland and Spyker, the team has now become Force India. It should be on the up, Mike Gasgoyne is back as technical director with Mark Smith as chief designer. Vijay Mallya is the millionaire behind Kingfisher lager and a petrol head, since buying the team he's injected money and renewed optimism. Hopefully this will lead the team back up the grid.

Giancarlo Fisichella is back at the team, for a third spell, and will provide some experience alongside the accident prone but fast Adrian Sutil. I expect Fisichella to be a star, bringing the car home higher than it should. How is it that Fisichella excels in middling teams and disappoints in front running teams? I think this will be his last team though. Sutil needs to calm down and show his speed without the excursions on the grass, if he proves to be close to Fisichella he will deserve his place in F1.

Honda

The Honda team had a diabolical 2007. The car was awful, it gave the drivers conflicting feedback and left them not knowing whether the next corner would demonstrate understeer or oversteer. Honda have suffered from Geoff Willis's departure (what a mistake to make) and upheaval in the engineering department. It looked like Honda may go the same way as Toyota with management by committee, but fortunately they wrestled Ross Brawn from Ferrari. This should be the key to Honda's resurgence. Mr Brawn is extremely talented and should help the team to thrive by setting a good direction for development.

After last year's recalcitrant RA107, the RA108 looks marginally better. Honda have gone back to first principles and developed a plain looking chassis. This is a good step, they need to get to understand their car again before making complicated aero upgrades. Last year, they were throwing parts at the car in the hope that it would help. Hopefully, they will be able to make leaps this year.

It's been terrible to see Jenson Button get so close to having a car which can show his talents (in 2006) and then stumble back. He's super smooth and deserves better, Honda have to deliver soon otherwise it will be a talent wasted. This will probably be Rubens Barrichello's last year, and I don't think he'll be quite as fast as Jenson, but it's great to see that enthusiasm is still there when it would have been so easy to lose heart.

Super Aguri

A few weeks ago it looked like the team would not make it to Melbourne, but thankfully some investment has enabled them to make the flight. They will be using last year's Honda, so I wouldn't expect any fireworks from the team.

Takuma Sato is looking better these days, but was shaded by Anthony Davidson towards the end of last year. In fact Davidson looked the better of the pair overall, but was unlucky to earn less points. Let's hope for better this year, but the RA107 is less than likely to deliver.

Squiffy.