In January I made some predictions for 2008. Let's see how I got on...
1. Gordon Brown's government will continue to unravel slowly. By the end of the year, the polls will look like Labour 28%, Lib Dems 18%, Tories 45%.
If I'd taken the snapshot in August this would have been true, the bank bail out seemed to reverse the position - though I don't think for too much longer. 1/2 point
2. The economy will slow, but avoid a recession. GDP for 2008 will be 1.5%.
Wrong. We're in recession. 0 points.
3. Interest rates will end the year on 4.5%, CPI 1.9%, RPI 3.9 %.
Wrong. Interest rates are 2%, CPI 4.1%, RPI 3.0%. 0 points.
4. Several ministers will resign, stating irreconcilable differences of opinion with the PM.
Wrong. Somehow, they all stuck in there. 0 points.
5. Charles Clarke, Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers will all pipe up asking for a real revolution in New Labour and stating that GB is not the change the country needs.
Right. They did ask for this through the beginning of the year. 1 point.
6. Nick Clegg will move the Lib Dems to the right whilst being put under pressure from his party for moving too far.
Half right, he did move the party to the right. 1/2 point.
7. Funding scandals will claim a scalp on the Labour and Conservative front benches. Probably Peter Hain, but not George Osborne.
Right. This was not the Yachtgate affair but I got this one right. 1 point.
8. Barack Obama will face John McCain and beat him to become President-Elect by the end of the year.
Spot on. When everyone though Hilary would win, and John McCain was out of it. 1 point.
9. Ken Livingstone narrowly beats Boris Johnson for Mayor of London.
Wrong, but who'd have thunk it? 0 points.
10. Kimi Raikkonen wins the F1 championship by 10 points from Lewis Hamilton. Felipe Massa comes third, Fernando Alonso fourth, Heikki Kovalainen fifth and Nick Heidfeld sixth.
Wrong. Kimi was with the fairies and Lewis claimed it in spectacular fashion. I'm glad I was wrong. 0 points.
Overall, 4 points. Not too bad but I think the events of September skewed quite a few outcomes. Tomorrow for the 2009 predictions!.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 31 December 2008
Thursday, 18 December 2008
Could we be in store for a May/June General Election?
Many commentators are wondering if there will be an early election, possibly in February 2009. I don't think that will happen, the history of elections in cold February point to the ruling party losing out. It could be advantageous to Labour though as it's likely that the recession will get worse before it gets better, and as it gets worse the polls could swing against Labour's recovery.
I think the timing of the withdrawal of troops from Iraq may be pointing to a May or June election. Normally you wouldn't play politics with the armed services, but Gordon Brown has form - remember his visit to Iraq to announce the return of 1000 troups during the Tory Party conference of 2007?
I think Gordon Brown will want to ride the wave of gratitude to the troops on their return and put the whole error of the Iraq war behind him. After their return the pressure will be on for a full inquiry into the lead up to the war and its conduct. If he delays an election to 2010, the outcome of any inquiry could be very embarrassing at the very moment when he goes to the country.
Also, the month of May has often seen General Elections, as the season of Spring brings forward feelings of optimism. The elections of 1997 and 2005 were in May and the 2001 election probably would have be had it not been for Foot and Mouth creating a delay.
Of course there are European Elections in June, so Gordon Brown may want to combine all the elections into one and create less spending/hassle for the councils. Saving money isn't really in GB's nature though so he may still go for May.
Squiffy.
I think the timing of the withdrawal of troops from Iraq may be pointing to a May or June election. Normally you wouldn't play politics with the armed services, but Gordon Brown has form - remember his visit to Iraq to announce the return of 1000 troups during the Tory Party conference of 2007?
I think Gordon Brown will want to ride the wave of gratitude to the troops on their return and put the whole error of the Iraq war behind him. After their return the pressure will be on for a full inquiry into the lead up to the war and its conduct. If he delays an election to 2010, the outcome of any inquiry could be very embarrassing at the very moment when he goes to the country.
Also, the month of May has often seen General Elections, as the season of Spring brings forward feelings of optimism. The elections of 1997 and 2005 were in May and the 2001 election probably would have be had it not been for Foot and Mouth creating a delay.
Of course there are European Elections in June, so Gordon Brown may want to combine all the elections into one and create less spending/hassle for the councils. Saving money isn't really in GB's nature though so he may still go for May.
Squiffy.
Monday, 15 December 2008
How low can you go?
That's a question for Sterling. For the last six days the Pound has dropped to increasingly record lows against the Euro. It has now plunged by 30% in the last few months, even the drop when the currency was withdrawn from the ERM was not as great.
The worry is that the low value of sterling will create the need for higher interest rates than would be good for times in a recession. But why is the pound plunging? Because our economy is in a terrible state, and the markets know it! The huge levels of debt is creating a lack of confidence, where others such as Germany have until recently been running a surplus.
I'm afraid that the pound will continue to drop whilst the Government fanny about with small measures and extra borrowing. They need to solve the credit crunch before tinkering at the edges of VAT, the Tories' Loan Guarantee Scheme would be one such solution. Unfortunately the Government seem determined to land the future tax payers with a level of debt greater than those from World War 2. We're doomed Mr Mainwaring.
Squiffy.
The worry is that the low value of sterling will create the need for higher interest rates than would be good for times in a recession. But why is the pound plunging? Because our economy is in a terrible state, and the markets know it! The huge levels of debt is creating a lack of confidence, where others such as Germany have until recently been running a surplus.
I'm afraid that the pound will continue to drop whilst the Government fanny about with small measures and extra borrowing. They need to solve the credit crunch before tinkering at the edges of VAT, the Tories' Loan Guarantee Scheme would be one such solution. Unfortunately the Government seem determined to land the future tax payers with a level of debt greater than those from World War 2. We're doomed Mr Mainwaring.
Squiffy.
Friday, 12 December 2008
There EU go again
Not very surprising, I know, but the decision by the Irish Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, to hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Constitutional treaty just typifies why the EU doesn't do democracy. The Irish people voted against the ratification of the Lisbon treaty by a margin of 54% to 46%, but are now going to be asked to think again. I bet there wouldn't be a second referendum had they voted in favour!
It's been happening for a while now, when the EU doesn't get a result it wants from a referendum the result is simply ignored (as in the case in France over the Lisbon treaty who then ratified it) or the question is put again. The Yes camp invariably says that there was a lot of scare mongering about proposals and, true, sometimes some of the predicted horrors are some way from the truth. But both sides are culpable, the British weren't exactly told the truth about our own referendum in 1975 (when I was two years old!), little did we know that we would be put on a course of political union rather than the free tree block most thought we would be joining.
Luckily for the Irish, they at least can express a view. We have been denied ours from the Government's election manifesto. Regardless of the merits and pitfalls of the Lisbon treaty, I urge the people of Ireland to vote the treaty down to demonstrate to the faceless bureaucrats that democracy matters and ignoring the wishes of the people cannot be treated lightly.
Come forth EU democracy.
Squiffy.
It's been happening for a while now, when the EU doesn't get a result it wants from a referendum the result is simply ignored (as in the case in France over the Lisbon treaty who then ratified it) or the question is put again. The Yes camp invariably says that there was a lot of scare mongering about proposals and, true, sometimes some of the predicted horrors are some way from the truth. But both sides are culpable, the British weren't exactly told the truth about our own referendum in 1975 (when I was two years old!), little did we know that we would be put on a course of political union rather than the free tree block most thought we would be joining.
Luckily for the Irish, they at least can express a view. We have been denied ours from the Government's election manifesto. Regardless of the merits and pitfalls of the Lisbon treaty, I urge the people of Ireland to vote the treaty down to demonstrate to the faceless bureaucrats that democracy matters and ignoring the wishes of the people cannot be treated lightly.
Come forth EU democracy.
Squiffy.
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