Thursday 29 April 2010

The Debate (Part 3)

Let's hope this works. A real live blog.




Squiffy.

David Cameron has it all to do tonight

As I've said before each debate DC has it all to do. Tonight is his last chance. I know he can blow the others out of the water, but he has pulled his punches and I end up feeling that he has lost his chance to make a game changer.

He needs to be passionate, pin the economic disaster on Gordon Brown and say that it would be worse under the Lib Dems because we'd be in the Euro now. He needs to make the case for strong Government and end on optimism and power to the people.

If he can do these he might be able to make the game changer we need.

Also he needs to rebut the line 'taking money out of the economy' otherwise I might explode!

Squiffy.

Just in case you missed it...




Squiffy.

What should Cameron's opening statement be?

On Thursday David Cameron faces making the public appearance of a lifetime. Here's the opening speech i hope he makes.


"We are at a crucial moment in this island's story. You have a big choice to make. Labour got us into this mess, and they only have one solution to every problem, more money. This time there's none left. The Liberal Democrats want to give away money based on double counting and dodgy savings. They would have taken us into the Euro. With them we could be facing a Greek style crisis right now. We could get the worst of all, a hung parliament with delay, political deals behind closed doors, no confidence and a future Greek crisis.

Alternatively, you could choose the Conservatives. Where others will need to raise your tax, we will strain every sinew to leave your money in your hands. It is in our DNA. Anyone who tells you that we will take money out of the economy, believe it is their right to dip into your pockets whenever they want. We trust you to spend your money in the way you want, trusting you to support our private enterprise.

We don't want a job's tax to finish off this spluttering recovery. We want to let employers keep their money so that they can employ more people. We want to let them employ their first 10 people without paying National Insurance. We want to set entrepeneurs free, untethered by the dead hand of Government.

Together we can make Britain grow again. Our trust in the great people of this country to bring about the big society where we all support a person, a family or dare we say, the economy, will help us to fix this fantastic country. Through hope and working together we can bring about the change that you all deserve. "




Squiffy.

Wednesday 28 April 2010

The final nail in the coffin?

Gordon Brown has made the inevitable gaff. Put this awkward man in front of a normal member of the public and he will come across as a man with a sore head. The clip shows that he is as false as can be, and this to a Labour voter.

Don't know whether this will have an effect on the polls but it cannot help!

Squiffy.

Tuesday 27 April 2010

If I hear "I'm not the Kingmaker, the public are" again...

...I might be sick.

Nick Clegg know's this is a semi-truth. Sure the public can create a scenario where no one has a majority, but at that point their involvement ends. Politicians take over in a series of electoral trysts, dosey do-ing with each other until they find the partner they want in a sort of party political speed dating.

At the end of the process the engagement is announced, but the public have no choice of popping up at the moment of 'does anyone here know of any just impediment...' to say hang on a minute. The wedding takes place, with everyone knowing the marriage won't last. In the end the inevitable divorce happens and finally the people get their say.

If we get PR, this will be a permanent feature. I can't bear to think about it. Pass the bucket.

Squiffy.

Monday 26 April 2010

What a waste of paper!

I've just seen the latest Lib Dem party political broadcast and I was thinking what a waste of paper. Not very good for an 'environmental' party.

It was when the camera panned you could see that the CGI couldn't quite keep up. Throughout I was thinking about the paper, can't remember what Nick Clegg said.

squiffy.

Labour only has itself to blame

Labour is now firmly in second place in the polls. If things stand they will lose a large number of seats to the Tories and Lib Dems.

With 10 days to go, there are a few things they could try such as announcing a new uncosted but popular policy. But i think the public would see through it and continue on their chosen path. The fact is that Gordon Brown cannot change and everyone knows it. Whereas David Cameron and Nick Clegg are young and fleet footed, the clunking fist is merely clunking.

Labour had 4 opportunities to get rid of him but didn't do it. It's too late for them now, and they deserve it.

I don't think the Tories can drop below 30 percent as even at the nadir of 1997 they managed this, so it must be the core vote. Where Labour can drop to we do not know, my feeling is 25 percent. Only 10 days to go to find out.

This is truly a memorable and bewildering time.

Squiffy.

Thursday 22 April 2010

The Debate (Part 2)

Here's what I think during the second debate.

- Everyone wearing the correct tie. Cameron using purple this week, next week it must be Clegg's.

Europe:
- Gordon Brown just lied about the social chapter. We had paid holidays before.
- Nick Clegg starts using a example. We had enough of those last week.
- Cameron looking a bit more assured.
- Cameron is being more emotive.
- Gordon Brown was foolish to attack Clegg - he came across as petulant.

Afghanistan:
- Cameron makes best case on Afghanistan.
- Brown makes impassioned defence of our forces.
- Clegg makes a good response about the vehicles being used and breaking down.
- Trident makes its appearance. Clegg is good here - even if I disagree with him.
- Cameron agree's with Gordon!

Environment:
- Gordon Brown goes solar.
- Some jokes from Cameron.
- Nick Clegg is human when he says he can't do enough. He's brave bringing up his air travel tax. People don't know about that.
- Cameron, attack Clegg on his air tax!
- Clegg "hold your horses" will be the soundbite.
- Gordon Brown seems strong here on the energy balance.
- Clegg is winning again, I think

Pope (what!):
- Clegg not as good here.
- Brown is putting on a better performance.
- They all agree.
- Brown is very string here.

Expenses and faith in politics:
- Same as last time in the statements about this.
- Cameron, now is your chance.
- Cameron made his point about the big society at lasy. Now hammer it home.
- Inheritance again....
- Gordon Brown is a cracked record.

Pensions:
- All want to bring back the earnings link.
- Some passion from Cameron. Go for it.
- Cameron is getting very passionate. Love it. It's now coming alive - he tells GB that the leaflets are lies and he should be ashamed.
- Clegg is making me want to hurl, being so consensual on elderly care.
- Cameron needs to mention the robbing of our pensions by GB.
- Now on elderly care - covered it last week.

Coalition Government:
- Cameron makes a good case for cutting the NI increase.
- Gordon Brown can't help himself referring to the Lib Dems as Liberals.
- 'Taking money out of the economy' - it's driving me f***ing mad. Someone tell the idiot that it is not taking money out of the economy.
- Cameron missed the opportunity again.

Immigration yet again:
- Did this last week.
- This is depressing me now.
- Good point by Clegg about 900,000 people living in the shadows.

Closing statements:
- Gordon Brown. Broken record time.
- David Cameron does the Big Society again.
- Nick Clegg mentions difference but doesn't provide any. Good ending.

Too many issues were covered last week. Nearly gave up.

Squiffy.

Debate 2

Today we have the second Prime Ministerial debate. After Nick Clegg’s winning of last week’s debate, we should look at the challenges facing each.
 
Gordon Brown: He has to perform better. At the moment it looks like his campaign is dead in the water and the polls should a gradual decrease. I don’t know what he can do to be better, as it’s just not him.
 
Nick Clegg: He won the debate by being likeable, putting the rivals into the same bucket and looking like the outsider. I’m not sure he will be able to do the same tonight, it looks like the second difficult album. It depends on how he handles the issues tonight where LibDems can be seen as weak. David Cameron is going to be highlighting LibDem policies, and Nick Clegg needs to be robust. Although he did extremely well, it’s hard to remember anything specific from last week.
 
David Cameron: As has happened twice before, David Cameron needs to perform at his very best and do a relaxed but formidable performance. He needs to be passionate, bang on about the Big Society, and show that the Tories are not amateurs on the international scene. It’s a tough ask – he can do it, but I wish he had last week!
 
Squiffy.
 

Vince gets Cabled



What i've been saying all along.

Squiffy.

Saturday 17 April 2010

Could the Lib-Dems nudge Labour into third?

We've all heard the opinions of the first leadership debate, and I thought that Nick Clegg did win the debate, he appeared normal and can berate both other parties equally. Cameron performed well-ish but he is so much better when he talks with passion. Brown did better than expected, but was the really the same old Gordon and it came across.

The first opinion polls also showed the same results but the most fascinating is the voting intention poll showing the Tories in the lead, Lib Dems in second and Labour in third. Of course polls taken immediately after an event tend to have unusual swings and so we cannot read too much into it, but it is clear that the Lib Dems will get a bounce.

I think in the next two debates Cameron will change his strategy and attack both candidates for their policies. In the third I think he will do the hope thing again. Whether Gordon Brown can change his approach is another matter, he may be less agreeable with Nick Clegg as he may be battling it out with the Lib Dems for second.

If the Lib Dems do come second in the election it is still very unlikely they will have more seats than either of the other parties, but the likelihood of a hung parliament is greater. If Labour come third but have most seats it would be impossible for the Lib Dems to back them up. All their arguments of the "party with the most legitimacy should form the Government" would be laughable if they even tired it. So it would have to be a Con/LibDem deal if not a coalition. This could kill the LibDem resurgence or kill Labour. It would be fascinating to watch.

It may now be seen as a mistake for Gordon Brown to cosy up to the Lib Dems, as it could go badly wrong. I think there will be some more distance in the next few days and also more scrutiny of the LibDem policies.

I'm now going to read the manifestos...what am I letting myself in for!

Squiffy.

Thursday 15 April 2010

The Debate (Part 1)

This is my blog during the debate...

- Everyone is wearing the right colour tie

- All good opening statements

- Immigration - it sounds like Gordon Brown stops people coming in if he speaks to them. Good answers by Cameron and Clegg. Brown says it is falling, that's due to the fact our economy is in the mud. Clegg makes flippant remark on a cap. Brown is not performing well on this point.

- Law & Order - Good point by Cledd on ID cards. Do people believe Gordon Brown when he says that 80% of police time needs to be on the street? Doesn't mention burglary. Cameron recognizes the drug problem related to burglary, very good point. Clegg performing well, but what is the policy? Brown is a one trick pony on funding. Has to mention Ashcroft too.

- Expenses - Brown can't talk about irresponsibility. Hello, £167Bn deficit. We know AV voting has nothing to do with expenses. Clegg doing a plague on both your houses again. Brown is trying to love-bomb Clegg. Brown has been found out saying that Clegg supports him. He doesn't. David Cameron is mediating!

- Education - Brown has no new answers on Education. Same old. Cameron is not answering the questioner's point. Oh, he is now. Clegg is answering it properly. Clegg is saying the same as Cameron. Brown's "every school has to be a good school", oh please. We know that, and it is not going to happen. Cameron mentions discipline, hurrah! Massage suite in the Department of Children, Schools etc, oh that's how Ed Balls gets bugging eyes. One trick pony Brown again - more money. He talks discipline but doesn't mean it.

- No adverts, amazing. If only they'd done it for Formula 1.

- Budget deficit - Cameron doing well tonight. Brown sometimes looks like he is about to pout. Brown mentions taking money out of the economy - it is not out of the economy it's in people's pockets. Stop lying. Please Cameron tackle him on it. Clegg doesn't sound so sure on the Economy. Brown only believes the Government can bring us out of the recession. Glad to see Cameron attacking the LibDems. Cameron please talk about this line of taking money out the economy! Please! Now's your chance. Missed it.

- Armed Forces - Brown is doing the father of the nation voice again. Nobody believes him on equipment. Cameron makes a good point on the TA. Good point by Clegg. Cameron says we should keep Trident. A good point by Brown, it can be a bargaining chip. Cameron attacks Brown on helicopters - is he going to lie now?

- Health - Cameron is very effusive about the care his son received. Clegg points out all the closures. Brown bangs on about personal guarantees. Brown can't shake his head when NI increase will take money out of NHS. He's doing it again. Cameron seems knowledgeable about cancer drugs. Inheritance tax! Not the biggest issue in the Tory manifesto.

- Elderly care - Cameron makes a good point. Clegg wants unity. Brown is spending money as we speak. Cameron makes good speech about carers. Cameron tries to bring the manifesto into play. Clegg ends on the consensus note.

- Closing statements - Clegg does his name check. Brown tries to be populist. Brown tries to scare, Cameron tries hope. Cameron has the best finish.

Squiffy.

Countdown to the leaders debate

It’s so exciting. I can’t wait for tonight’s debate, it’s (hopefully) going to be fascinating to watch the three men go up against each other on weighty issues (rather than PMQs in which the leaders try not to answer questions!).
 
Gordon Brown has nothing to lose, he needs to make sure that he keeps his answers brief, doesn’t bamboozle with statistics and tries to come across as normal.
 
David Cameron has the biggest challenge in that he has most to lose. He needs to talk to people on their level and show passion. I was particularly impressed when he shown real passion when asked a question by a journalist at the manifesto launch. His fervor about how the Labour party only understands how to spend money really hit home. He must not lose his rag though.
 
Nick Clegg is just happy to be included. It gives him a level playing field for the first time in a TV debate for a Lib Dem leader. He should do well as long as he does not hector which he can do from time to time. I also hope he tries to stay equi-distant between Labour and Tories. Recently his spokesmen seem to be cosying up to Labour, and while that maybe where their ideology lies it will give them huge problems if there is a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party.
 
They must all try to answer the questions, otherwise they will be found out.
 
I will blog during the debate, and during the weekend will give my thoughts on the Manifestos (they take time to read!).
 
Squiffy.
 

Saturday 10 April 2010

Ed 'blinkety blink' Balls

If, like me, you really dislike Ed Balls and his continuous stream of misrepresentations and eye popping mis-truths then you can donate to his opponent, Antony Calvert here.

I made my donation this morning, after hearing Ed Balls saying that the NI tax non-rise will greatly deprive his department of money and thus hit children's schools really hard. The fact is that Ed Balls has already announced some cuts, and there will be more in 2011/12 by Labour's own plans. He wants us to believe that his cuts will not affect teachers and children, but Tory cuts will. He deceives as a rule of course, there are so many occasions through the last few years when he has been found to be dodgy. Let's think SATs and the report over the tragic Baby P case. Let's castrate Labour, as they need their own Portillo moment.

Squiffy.

Wednesday 7 April 2010

Why did David Cameron allow Gordon Brown to get away with the £6 Bn out of the economy line?

I was nearly screaming at the radio today during PMQs. Twice (or was it three times?) the PM said that the National Insurance non-rise by the Tories would take £6 Bn out of the economy. I wanted DC to counter that but he did not. It typifies this Government’s approach, they believe that if the Government can spend the money, it is investment in the economy, but if the people and their employers are allowed to spend their own money then it is money taken out of the economy. Just ridiculous.
 
They think that they can help themselves to our money when they want to, and they have a much better way to spend it. It makes me angry.
 
Squiffy.
 
 
 

Tuesday 6 April 2010

And we're off

All that waiting for Gordon Brown to announce the election date is over. He’s called it for May 6th, the most likely date but he’s in a weaker position than he was in early March.
 
I’ve been looking forward to this election for such a long time. Firstly, because I want a new Government desperately. Secondly, because I love election campaigns. I love all the interviews with the leaders, the set piece morning conferences and this time we’ll have the leader debates. I will love to see Paxo have a go at Gordon Brown – he’s not put himself forward for a Paxo grilling since becoming Chancellor. I’d also like to see him face the public – something which he is reluctant to do.
 
I also feel a sense of disappointment, that the present exciting time will be over soon.
 
Squiffy.
 

Thursday 1 April 2010

Fast and loose with the figures! That's our Gordy

For the second time in a few weeks Gordon Brown (or at least his number 10 office) has had to apologise for the misuse of statistics. First there was his defence spending at the Chilcott inquiry, and now it is the migration figures (best not to get it wrong when talking about such an emotive issue).
 
I’m not surprised, over the years, especially as Chancellor, Mr. Brown frequently double counted, changed the baseline and forgot about ‘real-terms’. Many of us got used to it, which is why the opposition always has to look at the small print.  He even altered the definition of the economic cycle to get around his own golden rule. The annoying thing about it is that the PM so frequently uses statistics to make his argument, bandying around figures at the drop of a hat. The trick is not to be taken in.
 
Squiffy.