We escaped triple dip, we could still escape double dip

Last year we entered a double dip recession. Or did we?

Like a bureaucratic tardis, the ONS may be about to revise the figures for Q4 2011, Q1 and Q2 2012 so that the double dip becomes a figment of our imagination. It looks like one quarter only has to be revised upwards from - 0.07 to break the double dip.

If it does happen I hope the news outlets, BBC specifically, will give the same prominence to the news as it did to the news of the imaginary double dip... Some hope!

Squiffy.

Let UKIP be the protest vote, and not the vote of the right

Tonight and tomorrow we'll find out how well UKIP did in the local elections. I think they'll get just over 20 percent.

People of the left, and right and centre are voting for UKIP as a protest, which is fine. There always needs to be a party to represent protest, it used to be the Lib Dems but not now they're in Government. But anyone who classifies themselves as someone of the right and seriously thoughtful, should consider the policies and implications.

A vote for UKIP is a vote for tax cuts and extra spending to the tune of £60 a year. Margaret Thatcher wanted to balance the books, and Nigel Farage is not her heir. They will accelerate this country's descent into a debt abys. If the only reason is for a vote for a UK exit from the EU, then the likely outcome is a Labour Government which will not give you a chance to have your say. If you are centre right vote Tory, not for the fantasists.

Squiffy

Is Labour about to make a big error?

This morning's Indy has a report saying that Labour are going to go into the next election promising higher spending than the Tories.

They may be able to make the case but it's a difficult one for most people to understand. The Tories claim that you can't borrow yourself out of a debt crisis and it is a simple message that most people understand (even though its not always true).

I think, given the economic climate, that it would be a bad mistake. Most people think Labour spent too much before the last election, and have lost some economic credibility. To not try to regain that credibility is an error.

It is looking like they might make the 1992 election mistake again, when they promised higher taxes against the backdrop of recession.

Could this be the moment the polls turn?

Squiffy.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

George Galloway: Is this the most odious man in Britain today?

George Galloway has been on our TV screens today decrying that PMQs have be cancelled for this week, as many politicians will be at Baroness Thatcher's funeral. It's the latest outpouring of bile from the MP since saying they should 'tramp the dirt down', and from the party laughingly calling itself Respect.


He even had the temerity to have a go saying that she was a friend of dictators. Er, hello? Is this the same George Galloway who told Saddam Hussein that "Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability" and went on to justify the invasion of Kuwait.

The hypocracy and nastiness of the man knows no bounds. To now try to stop PMQs being cancelled, in order to stop MPs attending the funeral is beyond spiteful. He's a disgrace. I hope the people of Bradford can finally see what mistake they made when they elected this odious individual.

Squiffy.

The F1 season is under way, and the fun continues

We've now had three races and three winners. Similar pattern to last year: drivers complaining about tyres, no team showing outright consistent pace and Webber with bad luck.

The Ferrari is definitely looking like it will give the Red Bull a run this year. The Mercedes is fast over one lap but inconsistent over a race distance and the McLaren has some major problems.

It's funny how relaxed Lewis Hamilton is now looking, especially when he sees the problems McLaren are having. It will seem that he made the right decision, though I think it is probably too early to tell. It does seem, however, that McLaren only make good cars every other year, with one exception. The good cars for the last decade have been in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012, so maybe it was astute to jump ship for 2013!

I do hope that Lewis will win a few races this year, he's only 12 points behind and maybe they can make a championship challenge if they can make a couple of tenths for the race. He would certainly be surprised.

In Malaysia we had the Vettel/Webber falling out. It has been coming for a while. It is clear that the two have not got on for years and now it is all out war. I do now expect them to trip each other up, such is the animosity. It could be their undoing for this year, and maybe this is Alonso's chance.

It's a real shame that Williams haven't made the step forward I hoped, I really want them back in the big league consistently.

Anyway, just some idle thoughts.

Squiffy.

Mrs T: The best peace time PM we've had in the last century

It's a sad day, Lady Thatcher has died. In my opinion, she was the best PM we've had since World War 2.

Her achievements as the first female leader of a major political party and then the first PM are too numerous to mention, but I will give the headlines: Ending the cold war, winning the Falklands war, smashing the power of the unions, privatising loss making industries, lowering tax rates, bringing in an entrepreneur economy, beating inflation and lastly reforming the Labour party.

There will be many tributes and some people will be spiteful (which says more about them than the great Lady). For me, she was the other lady in my life aside from my mother while I was growing up. I saw the country go from a clapped out basket-case, the sick-man of Europe, to a European giant alongside German and France. She put the Great back into Britain.

Of course she made mistakes. The Poll tax shouldn't have happened, trying to be fair by making everyone have a share in making their local council work for them, she forgot about the ability to pay. She shouldn't have touched it. She should have tackled welfare, which is now being tackled 30 years later. Grant maintained schools should have been a first term priority and then they would have been bedded down much earlier, before Labour reversed them then brought them back as Academies.

She became too strident with colleagues and when she did one last time their patience broke, on top of the Poll tax unpopularity she was defeated by her own party.

The great that she did will far outweigh these mistakes for they were and can be overcome. The turning around of Britain will never be forgotten. Of this she can be proud.

Rest in peace Mrs T, I'm raising a glass to the life of a brilliant politician and true patriot.

Squiffy.

Morrissey says gays don't go to war

<p>I love the Smiths, and I also think that Morrissey is a genius with lyrics. As a Tory, I would no doubt get a load of crap my way for liking the Smiths from members of band, but how would I do as gay? I believe in self responsibility and great shoes! Buying your own shots and being fabulous while knocking them back. But I also thought the Smiths talked to me when I felt lonely, an odd one out, while I was coming out. </p>
<p>I'm still an odd one out, a gay Tory. Being both loved and hated by members of the band I revere.<br></p>
<p>Which brings me to Morrissey's latest pronouncement.

Maybe he thinks that the modern day gay man, out, proud and happy with himself will not go to war, and he might be on to something. But some of the most bloodthirsty people in history have been closeted gays who think showing masculinity by killing folk will show they're real men. The ultimate diversion tactic, has slain many people. Think Alexander the Great and you get the idea. In Britain we have Edward II and William II as examples as gay men not afraid to go to war.

The argument should not be that gays don't go to war, but gays comfortable with themselves don't go to war. There's not much worse than closeted gays, as history in politics and religion shows. Hypocrisy and bigotry abound.

Gays are as strong and angry as everyone else, until they find the thing that makes them angry. Mr Morrissey, please weave that into your next lyric.

Squiffy

Eastleigh: the aftermath

After the Eastleigh by-election, there will be a lot of guff spoken. It's the same after every election bar the general.

The Lib Dems did well to win, they are great local campaigners and once they get a foothold in an area they are hard to shift! UKIP did spectacularly well to come from nowhere to second. It was disappointing for the Tories and Labour.

That's the headlines. Underneath though it's quite interesting. UKIP have now become the party of protest, which should be worrying for Labour. If the public run for a party with only one recognisable politician and policy when the Government is so unpopular, and that person is not the leader of the opposition then the opposition is doing something wrong. The Labour party made no headway, and they should be in these circumstances.

It's a bit worrying for the Tories, but they are the prime governing party and so it would generally be unusual for them to win a seat when in midterm unpopularity. The Chris Huhne and Lord Rennard affairs didn't seem to have much effect and did not benefit the Tories. The Lib Dems may do worse in a general election though.

I would be surprised to see UKIP use this as a real springboard for national elections. They are still a party of protest with one known popular policy. The rest of the policies do not stand up to scrutiny, lots of tax cuts and more spending make the Labour party look economically sound. Voters thinking of going for UKIP who actually want a referendum would be better going for David Cameron's deal of a referendum after the next election.

The Tories should be worried that UKIP will pull enough votes to put Ed Miliband in number 10. And UKIPs should think again because Ed Miliband will never give a referendum (because he'll lose). Tory headbangers should beware a lurch to the right though, it will never win over the electorate.

Squiffy.

David Cameron has played a blinder

<p>The last few weeks David Cameron has been on top form, he made a fantastic speech on Europe with the promise of a referendum, he's said a big yes to gay marriage and he's secured an EU budget cut. These are big moments for the country's future economically and socially. </p>
<p>The referendum pledge is a slow burner that will be a big problem for Labour and Lib Dems whilst uniting the Tory benches. Ed Miliband has a big problem on his hands, and he has been very quiet recently. I think he'll have to agree to the referendum himself after some gnashing of teeth.

The PM also pushed through the gay marriage vote against vocal opposition and this will be remembered in years to come. He is a social liberal and that's exactly where the modern Tory party needs to be.

Finally, he delivered a budget cut when all were predicting a small rise for the EU. All those saying that Britain is isolated can now reevaluate. Ed Miliband wants to claim some credit, but we know his vote for a reduction was cynical and that he would have surrendered, just like Tony Blair!

Overall, and a great month for the PM.

Squiffy