Tuesday 1 January 2019

2018 is over. Here comes 2019

I make my predictions every year and then see how badly I did at the end of it.

Here's my list of predictions from 2018.
  1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a fifth time. 1 point
  2. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship, with Red Bull beating Ferrari to 2nd in the constuctor's Championship. 0 points
  3. There will be disarray in Ferrari this year as their car is not as successful as the 2017 version. 0 points
  4. There will not be a General Election in the UK in 2018.  1 point
  5. There will be a quick agreement on a a Brexit transition deal and a final deal will be ready in October. 1/2 point (transition was agreed quickly, withdrawal deal was later in November)
  6. It will be a very difficult process and possible constitutional crisis trying to get the EU Withdrawal through the House Of Lords. 1/2 point (it is a difficult process and has been cancelled once)
  7. The Labour Party will have a little crisis over their position on Brexit with some resignations, and Corbyn will end the year less popular. 0 points (this is still to come)
  8. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 41%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 3%. 1 point
  9. UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 0 points (still to come)
  10. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 0 points (still to come)

I make that 4 points out of 10, not good again. I thought Red Bull would do better than Ferrari, but that was not the case. Ferrari were in a little disarray but not as bad as I thought.

A lot of the political points I mentioned are still possible but now in 2019 - 2018 has been a year of treading water!

So here's my go for 2019 (11 this time as there's going to be a lot going on):

  1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship again.
  2. Sebastien Vettel will be beaten by Charles Leclerk.
  3. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship.
  4. Theresa May will lose the vote on EU Withdrawal deal.
  5. Attempts to force a second 'public' vote will fail.
  6. We will leave the EU on a managed no-deal basis
  7. Theresa May will resign and Dominic Raab will become Prime Minister after we have left the EU.
  8. The Labour Party will split after we leave the EU and there will be a new centrist party.
  9. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 35%, Labour at 23%, A new centrist party 24%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 1%. 
  10. UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 
  11. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 

Squiffy.