I make my predictions every year and then see how badly I did at the end of it.
Here's my list of predictions from 2018.
- Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a fifth time. 1 point
- Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship, with Red Bull beating Ferrari to 2nd in the constuctor's Championship. 0 points
- There will be disarray in Ferrari this year as their car is not as successful as the 2017 version. 0 points
- There will not be a General Election in the UK in 2018. 1 point
- There will be a quick agreement on a a Brexit transition deal and a final deal will be ready in October. 1/2 point (transition was agreed quickly, withdrawal deal was later in November)
- It will be a very difficult process and possible constitutional crisis trying to get the EU Withdrawal through the House Of Lords. 1/2 point (it is a difficult process and has been cancelled once)
- The Labour Party will have a little crisis over their position on Brexit with some resignations, and Corbyn will end the year less popular. 0 points (this is still to come)
- At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 41%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 3%. 1 point
- UKIP will file for bankruptcy. 0 points (still to come)
- Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail. 0 points (still to come)
I make that 4 points out of 10, not good again. I thought Red Bull would do better than Ferrari, but that was not the case. Ferrari were in a little disarray but not as bad as I thought.
A lot of the political points I mentioned are still possible but now in 2019 - 2018 has been a year of treading water!
So here's my go for 2019 (11 this time as there's going to be a lot going on):
- Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship again.
- Sebastien Vettel will be beaten by Charles Leclerk.
- Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship.
- Theresa May will lose the vote on EU Withdrawal deal.
- Attempts to force a second 'public' vote will fail.
- We will leave the EU on a managed no-deal basis
- Theresa May will resign and Dominic Raab will become Prime Minister after we have left the EU.
- The Labour Party will split after we leave the EU and there will be a new centrist party.
- At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 35%, Labour at 23%, A new centrist party 24%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 1%.
- UKIP will file for bankruptcy.
- Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail.
Squiffy.
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