Why do we do it? Murray fails to shine

Why do we do it, time and time again? We get up early, we watch as another British hopeful promises so much and then fails to deliver in Tennis.

Although Andy Murray looks like he could do it one day, we should have known the writing was on the wall when all the pundits said he would win. In the end a 3 set to love defeat.

I think I will stick to Formula 1, where Brits do win!

Squiffy.

The hand of history gives Gordie a slap in the face

Gordon Brown is trying desperately to show some success in leadership on difficult foreign policy and domestic issues. He remembers his success on the G20 summit and wants to replicate it, hence his big presence at Copenhagen, the Northern Ireland policing summit and now the Afghan summit.

 

Unfortunately his luck seems to have run out. There was no deal at Copenhagen, the Yemeni summit was a damp squib and yesterday all he got was a slap in the face and recriminations. It’s a far cry from Tony’s fantastic quote from the Good Friday agreement:

 

“This is no time for soundbites , you can leave them at home but I feel the hand of history on my shoulder”

 

No, Gordie, the summits will no longer work, and staying in Belfast for a few extra hours just looked like you were ducking PMQs to avoid answering questions on the 0.1% !

 

Squiffy.

 

Wow, we have amazing GDP growth of 0.1%

The latest GDP figures show that we have grown by 0.1% putting an end to the recession. It’s very weak though, and lends even more weight to my theory a few days ago that it may go negative again in Q1 2010, and lead to an earlier election.

 

Of course, these figures are an early estimate and may get revised up to show stronger growth. On the other hand, they could be revised down and show we are still in recession!

 

Squiffy.

 

Is it a March Election?

The collective wisdom seems to have settled on a May 6^th General Election, but a few things look like they might trigger an earlier election.

 

In the last few days Gordon Brown has offered to appear before the Chilcot inquiry. The letters have been published, and in response Chilcot says:

 

“The committee plans to conclude its hearings on Monday 8 February…That would mean, if you take up the offer, holding the hearings at the end of February or early March…..If, of course, in the meantime a General Election is called, we would need to postpone the hearing, as we have always made clear”.

 

Although Gordon Brown says he is relaxed about appearing before the inquiry, this may be bravado. Maybe he is worried that it would be a bad start to the Election Campaign. A General Election in March would be a get out clause.

 

Adding to the problems, Alistair Darling seems determined to start bringing the fiscal deficit down in the Budget. To avoid the bad headlines which would inevitably accompany the cuts and destroy one of Brown’s election tactics, or a possible resignation if Brown stops Darling getting his way this time, it makes sense to avoid having a budget.

 

We will also be likely to have briefly come out of recession before the we enter it again. To me it makes sense to go in March, will Brown jump though?

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

David Blunkett accuses the Tories of gerrymandering

David Blunkett has accused the Tories of planning to gerrymander future elections due to the plan to reduce the number of seats in Parliament. I know, that doesn’t make sense!

 

What he really means is that the plan to make each seat represent the same number of electors (i.e. having the same size constituency) will take away the current bias in the electoral system which means the Tories need a lead of 8% to get the same seats. The cheek of it!

 

He talks about poor people not being willing to vote – which obviously is going to hurt Labour more than the Tories, but that is a problem of the parties not enthusing poor people to vote and not a problem with the electoral system. Go and take a look at Obama’s campaign if you really want to tackle that!

 

He really wants to entrench the current bias in the system for years to come, i.e. gerrymander to keep Labour in power.

 

Squiffy.

 

Schumacher's mind tricks

It is not known whether Michael Schumacher will have outright No 1 status at Mercedes (one can guess that if there is any new kit – he’ll get it first though).

 

He was though supposed to get the Number 4 on his car, whereas Nico Rosberg was supposed to have 3. Traditionally, the lower number is for the number 1 in the team and I guess that Rosberg came to the team expecting to lead it after Button jumped ship to McLaren and expected to be adorned with “3”.

 

Apparently, Schumacher has a preference for odd numbers, funny that,  and has been granted a swap. He’s used to having Number 1 on his nosecone, maybe they should just try to get that for him.

 

I think the mind games for supremacy at Mercedes have started early!

 

Squiffy.

 

The double dip beckons

Today’s inflation figures show that CPI has risen by 1.0% in a month to 2.9%. I would have expected a rise like that to occur after January’s figures are produced (these will include the VAT rise), but not in December where all the retail outlets were targeting Christmas customers with sales.

 

It shows that the inflation we had before the recession (it was relatively high) has not been beaten out of the system by the downturn, and is ready to return with a vengeance. We’re not officially out of the recession yet, but the double dip is on the horizon. The effect of quantitative easing and VAT increases will combine to drive inflation up, meaning that the Bank Of England is likely to raise interest rates sooner than later. Add in the effect of the market’s view on our debt and the outlook looks bleak.

 

If we do to take hold get growth in Q4 2009, expect recession again in Q1 2010.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Brown's shameless grab for the middle

You’ve got to admire the sheer cheek of it. Gordon Brown is now a middle class warrior, declaring that he will protect the middle classes.

 

Er, come again? Wasn’t it Mr Brown who decimated the middle class pension pot with his cack handed raid on pension dividends. Or did he put NI contributions up time and time again? Or did he try to stop city academies? Or did he introduce IR35 legislation? Or did he introduce a 50% tax rate? Or did he increase stamp duty? Or did his Government force parents to register on the child register to take kids and friends to football matches?

 

All of these things. Tony Blair had a feel for the middle classes, so did Mandelson – they understand aspiration. Brown never has, so it’s a bit rich now for him to ask us to trust him.

 

I never will.

 

Squiffy.

 

Raise a toast to Tom Harris MP

It’s not often that I agree with a Labour MP (apart from Frank Field – who’s in the wrong party), but Tom Harris is one thoughtful MP, who’s blog is well worth reading.

This post about minimum pricing for alcohol is spot on.

The most important point is this:

And thirdly – and by far most importantly – minimum pricing of alcohol won’t work. Do you imagine that the type of person who gets blitzed on a 12-pack of Carlsberg from the local supermarket is going to see the new, increased price label and say to himself: “No, I can no longer afford to indulge my drinking habit. I will therefore save my money and spend it instead on books for my children.”?

Absolutely right. It’s not going to work, but all parties seem to be set on it. It will make no difference. The fact is that this country has relied on alcohol since its birth – it was better for us than the water! We have grown up around it, it oils our social lives and occasionally we have too much. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much else for large sections of our community to do, and occasionally turns into often, so Fridays and Saturdays become a drunkfest and town centres become no-go areas.

I don’t have a solution, if people had better things to do then maybe it could be reduced. Maybe aspiration is the key, but at the moment an aspiration for many is to get drunk at the weekend.

Squiffy. (Possibly aptly named).

David Cameron needs to change tack

Gordon Brown performed well in today’s PMQs, as he did last week. He’s having a good run. He still doesn’t answer questions and manages to bluster well, but that’s GB for you.

 

I think David Cameron now needs to change tack. Recognizing that he’s not going to make headway with Gordon Brown, as GB asks DC the questions, he should turn the tables and start to answer the questions. He could use his honesty (like saying that he misspoke last week) to his benefit and be more open. The sight of David Cameron answering a question, then asking one which gets blustered by Gordon Brown will show that he is more Prime Ministerial and open.

 

It would certainly be a surprise to the house, and would GB be able to cope with this change of tactic.

 

Squiffy.

 

Are we lining up for an almight Brown-Darling bust up?

The outcome of last week’s snow plot is that Alistair Darling seems to have convinced Gordon Brown of the need to talk about cuts. He made this plain by immediately getting out and telling the Times that he would be setting out the worst comprehensive spending review for 20 years.

 

Unfortunately, we’ve been here before. In the middle of last year when Brown was using the Investment vs Tory Cuts there appeared to be a parting of the waves. Until the nearly successful coup forced Brown to start using the C-word. He then  reverted to his previous message, managing never to use the C-word in last week’s interview with Andrew Marr.

 

It seems that the Cabinet drags him to the centre, then as time goes by Ed Balls drags him back to the left until we get a coup attempt. It was in this backdrop that the Pre-Budget Report was made, and typically avoided any mention of cuts. It was then made known that Darling and Mandelson wanted to make clear that cuts would be needed.

 

What if Brown starts to go back to the investment vs cuts arguments in the run up to the election and budget? Could Alistair Darling say enough is enough and walk out. It would be devastating. If he stayed, he would still leak that Brown had stamped all over his budget. It could get very messy.

 

For all Brown’s words of bringing in Darling, Mandelson & Harman, he can’t shake his Balls.

 

Squiffy.

 

What an absolute shower

They’ve now had three attempts to get rid of this deeply unimpressive Prime Minister. They know they are doomed. But they haven’t got the balls, excuse the pun, to get rid.

 

They can’t speak to each other to prepare a well organized coup, each attempt has ended being a damp squib. If they can’t even organize a leadership election in a political party, how can they run a country? Well, they’re not. Apart from reacting to events, it’s hard to think of anything concrete which has come from the last 5 years of this Government. Lots of words and policy announcements, but very little effect. As someone once said, in office but not in power.

 

On an alternative note, the Tories got themselves into a small difficulty on Monday when David Cameron appeared to downgrade the commitment to recognize marriage in the tax system. After some little twisting, he came back and corrected himself to  turn it back into a commitment. This morning on the Today programme, he fessed up and said that he made a mistake and apologized. How refreshing, a politician telling the truth? It would have been easier to have covered up his mistake. But as Jim Hacker said once, honesty is sometimes the best way of surprising the opposition!

 

Squiffy.

 

2010 : The Predictions

Happy New Year to all. I hope 2010 is a great year, and one in which this discredit Government is evicted from office.

Here are my predictions for the year ahead.

1. The Tories will win the election with a majority of around 80. Many people think it will be tighter than that, but I think the polls overstate the Labour position.
2. The election shares will be Tories 43%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 24%.
   
3. Gordon Brown will be succeeded by Harriet Harman. (They should chose Andy Burnham)
   
4. Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship.
5. Michael Schumacher will win 3 races this year.
6. David Davis and Malcolm Rifkind will be in the Cabinet.
7. The country will have recovered last quarter but will enter it again this quarter. It will re-emerge in the 3rd quarter.
8. CPI Inflation will hit 3.5% by years end.
9. Lord Mandelson will renounce his peerage in an attempt to rejoin the commons.
10. The first Cabinet Minister to resign will be Alan Duncan.

Lets see how it looks at the end of the year.

Squiffy.