It's only one week, in fact a little less, until we leave the EU. It's so close and yet it feels so understated.
Before the general election every day felt like a tipping point between some "catastrophic crash out" (a description by the hard remainers) and a betrayal of democracy. All of UK politics was at Defcon 5. The general election has dropped our level to Defcon 1, we're leaving the EU in 5 days time and the front pages of the newspapers are all talking about something else. Everything has changed.
Some people say that the 31st January is not getting Brexit done, but in the sense that the argument moves on completely from "whether we leave the EU" to "how we leave the EU" it is getting Brexit done. We will be out of the EU's structures with a temporary trade deal. It will feel different even if there's no immediate difference in our trading relationship. Only 11 more months and the EU relationship will be mainly settled (I'm sure of that).
But there still will be differences. Expect there to be announcements of new trade deals with third countries being rolled over from the EU trade deals. The US trade discussions will start immediately, probably before the EU ones! Australia, New Zealand and Canada will be quick on the heels.
After stasis for the last three years, it will feel like Britain is going gangbusters. I expect the economy to pick up immediately until at least the third quarter of the year, then it depends on how the EU trade talks are going. I expect that there will be an early blow up about fishing but, once resolved, other issues will be a bit more straightforward.
It is a fact that the EU sells more to the UK than vice versa. This has been repeated a lot over the last few years but it didn't really matter for the withdrawal agreement, but it will be very important for the new trade agreement though. The UK will have a much stronger hand. Also the UK government will be much more united for this phase and the EU will have divisions as they all have to look after their individual industries. The Germans will be trying to protect their car manufacturers, the French will be looking after their wine industry, etc etc. The UK will be a much stronger player in the negotiations this time around. The boot will be on the other foot...
I have some champagne ready for 11 pm on Friday. I will celebrate. Now I'm hoping that all the fears of the remainers will prove unfounded and the UK powers ahead of the sclerotic EU. I'm sure I will be proved right.
Squiffy.
