I have been thinking about the options facing the UK after Theresa May's inevitable defeat on the vote on Tuesday. There's lots of pages in the press in the options facing us so let's take a look.
Confidence Vote
The DUP have said they will vote for the Government in the event of a confidence vote. The Tories will not vote to let in Corbyn so it is extremely unlikely that this event will happen.
General Election
This option is if Prime Minister decides on a General Election. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for it. I don't think the Prime Minister will go for this, especially after the last one wiped out her majority.
Theresa Resigns
I think this is quite highly likely. She has so far been very resilient, but I have a hunch that she just wants to get to this vote and to say that she tried her best. Maybe not.
Vote of Confidence in Theresa
This would happen if 48 letters go into the Graham Brady as the chairman of the 1922 committee. I think that this is guaranteed if she doesn't resign of her own accord. I think she will then lose, or not win by enough to stay on.
Small Renegotiation
Theresa May somehow clings on and tries to get something small as a concession by the EU. I honestly don't think she will be able to get anything big enough to get a second vote passed.
Delay
So far Theresa May has shown she likes to kick the can down the road. If she does try to delay I reckon the 48 letters will go in. I'm not sure the EU will be happy too.
Big Renegotation
She rips up the plan and starts again? No way. It would have to be under a new PM. Will the EU show any ankle? No way too.
Parliament Tries to Pivot to Norway
There is a mood amongst some remainers to pivot to Norway. Norway gives access to the single market for a fee. It also requires freedom of movement. The one thing it doesn't do is solve the perceived Northern Irish border problem, so it would have to be Norway+, i.e. be in the single market and the custom union.
This, some think, could command a majority in the House of Commons. I'm not sure. This will not satisfy any of Theresa May's red lines, or the aims of the vote. No trade deals, no stopping of freedom of movement, and still paying for being in the single market. It will also stop Corbyn from doing state aid and some of the other protectionist schemes he wants. I would think Labour in the main would go against. It still doesn't satisfy their six tests (although nothing will).
I think it is unlikely.
People's Vote
This will do it's best to get off the line. There will be lots of people against a second referendum, but let's say there is a majority for some kind of referendum. The next question is what will be on the vote. Remain/May's deal, Remain/No deal, Remain/Renegotiate, Remain/May's Deal/No Deal. If it's a three way there would have to be some kind of AV, otherwise there would be accusations of trying to blatantly scupper Brexit. Can you imagine one of those getting a majority out of those that want a referendum? I can't.
But let's say there is some kind of agreement, and it becomes Remain/No deal. The remainers think that the crap negotiation will swing some 2016 leavers in to remain, and it is likely for a small group. There will also be some more youthful voters eligible. There will also be some people who wanted to vote leave last time but were scared by project fear, and now see that nothing bad really happened, so will vote leave. There will also be people who voted remain but see the second vote as an affront to democracy and will vote leave to send a strong message to the Government to listen to the first vote.
The one thing that isn't mentioned in the press is that last time the Government were very pro-Remain. Before the campaigns started the Government spent £9m of taxpayer money on a pamphlet for every house asking to vote remain. What would the Government do this time? This is the Government that said 'Brexit means Brexit'. They could not be pro-Remain this time. Corbyn will still be as luke warm. I think the likelihood is that there would be a bigger vote for leave this time.
Which takes us where?
Managed No Deal
I think when a few of the other options have been tried, we will get to a managed no deal. Small deals to keep the lights on, beneficial to us and the EU. And then we leave.
Squiffy.
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