2019 is over. Here comes 2020.

It has become extremely difficult to predict what will happen in politics for the last few years, but I suspect it may get a bit easier. 2019 was a bumper year for a bumpy year!

Let's first look at what I thought might happen over the last year:

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship again.  1 point 
2. Sebastien Vettel will be beaten by Charles Leclerk.  1 point
3. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship.  0 points, it was Valtteri Bottas
4. Theresa May will lose the vote on EU Withdrawal deal.  1 point (maybe it should be 3 points!)
5. Attempts to force a second 'public' vote will fail.   1 point
6. We will leave the EU on a managed no-deal basis    0 points
7. Theresa May will resign and Dominic Raab will become Prime Minister after we have left the EU.   1/2 point as Theresa May resigned but Boris Johnson took over
8. The Labour Party will split after we leave the EU and there will be a new centrist party.   1/2 point, there was a small split for Change UK.
9. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 35%, Labour at 23%, A new centrist party 24%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 1%.    0 points (the missing of the 29th March deadline changed everything)
10. UKIP will file for bankruptcy.    0 points, but who are UKIP?
11. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail.     1/2 point, ok he was impeached in the House of Representatives but we've not had the resolution in the Senate yet. 

In total 5 1/2 points. That's not too bad given how much has changed in the last year. That failure in March 29th changed the whole political outlook for 2019, UKIP all but disappeared but the Brexit party came from nowhere to lead in the EU elections, the Tory party nearly died then rose like a phoenix from the flames.

Here's what I predict for 2020, hopefully I will get better results this time (I'm not putting leaving the EU on 31st January - as it is now a given): 

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a seventh time.
2. Sebastien Vettel will be beaten again by Charles Leclerc.
3. Sebastien Vettel will announce his retirement at the end of the year.
4. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship.
5. The early trade talks with the EU will founder on fishing rights and there will be a walk out.
6. There will however be a deal by the end of 2020.
7. Rebecca Long Bailey will become leader of the Labour Party.
8. Angela Rayner will become deputy.
9. There will be a bigger Labour split this year when centrists finally realise they have lost their party,
10. Layla Moran will become Lib Dem leader
11. The Brexit party will not morph into the reform party and will disappear entirely. 
12. The polls at the end of the year will be Tories 42%. Labour 21%. Lib Dems 10%, New Centrist Labour party 22%.
13. Elizabeth Warren will win the democratic nomination
14. Donald Trump will win a second term as US president.

Squiffy.