A look at my 2009 predictions

It's the end of the year and so it is time to mark my predictions for the year. Here is what I said:

1. There will be no general election in 2009. Although Gordon Brown will have been lining up a May/June election for seven months, the polls won't look good enough to risk it, and so GB will go until the last moment in 2010.
   CORRECT.
2. The recession will last throughout 2009. CORRECT.
   
3. Several other high street names will experience problems. I'm guessing at HMV, W.H.Smiths, and Robert Dyas. I just hope I'm wrong. OTHERS DID, BUT NOT THE ONES MENTIONED. HALF POINT.
   
4. Interest rates will reduce to 0.5%, the CPI will also go down to 0.5%, and the RPI will briefly go negative. CORRECT.
   
5. Robert Kubica will win the F1 World Championship. WRONG.
   
6. A bad set of economic figures in the beginning of the year will signal a reversal to Labour's recovery, the polls will go back to a good Tory position of Con 45%, Lab 26%, LD 17% by year's end. CORRECT.
   
7. Ken Clarke will come back as shadow Business secretary. CORRECT.
   
8. David Blunkett will come back as Home Secretary. WRONG.
   
9. The Tories will win the Local/Euro elections on a percentage share of 43%. Labour will get 22% with the LibDems at 26%. CORRECT, BUT FIGURES WRONG. HALF POINT.
   
10. Peter Mandelson will be forced to resign over some business dealings as EU Comissioner. WRONG.
    

So, that's 6 points out of 10. Not bad. Tomorrow for my 2010 predictions.

Squiffy.

Exciting - the leaders debates

The excitement has already started to build. Next year the UK will see its first leaders debate in a general election. All across the globe these events are standard practice, but here in Blighty we’re used to one party calling for a debate and another saying no.

 

Now that the blockade has been broken, they will form a part of every general election campaign here on in. Halleluiah, it’s taken a long time to get here but thankfully we’ve got here. The old refrain that every PM puts himself to questioning once a week at Prime Ministers Questions as an excuse will now be put to sleep.

 

I like the fact that the three debates will be 85 to 90 minutes long, quite a serious amount of time!

 

Who’s got something to lose, and who’s got something to win?

 

On the face of it, Gordon Brown, being an unpopular, PM has nothing to lose. David Cameron has everything to lose by starting  ahead. Nick Clegg has the gift of a lifetime in that he will get equal airtime to the two main party leaders.

 

So far the commentary follows these lines. I think that is too simplistic. For David Cameron, the repeated mantra that he hasn’t sealed the deal may be getting wearing. I don’t think things will change before the campaign, but a good performance may see him get closer.

 

David Cameron comes across well on TV, whereas Gordon Brown is notoriously bad and has a tendency to make mistakes under pressure (remember the investment of 0%). I’ve blogged before that the PM may well lose his temper and blow up under sustained questioning by the public (something he has never faced as PM) and if this happens it could be a real game changer.

 

Finally, I think Nick Clegg will do well whatever happens to the other two, if he gains 4 to 5 % on the back of a good performance I’d expect it to be at the expense of Labour rather than the Tories. It could make this election more like 1983 or 1987 with a seriously divided left leaving the Tories to win handsomely.

 

Only a few months to wait and we shall see.

 

I can’t wait, I wonder if I can get tickets for the audience?

 

Squiffy.

 

Why David Cameron cannot seal the deal.

During the last year or so there have been many articles about current polling trends, many pointing out that the Tories are stuck around the 40% mark and that David Cameron is seemingly unable to 'seal the deal'.

 

My thesis is that this is not a problem with David Cameron and that any Tory leader would have the same problem.

 

Many people remember the Tories from the last time they were in power, it's only 13 years ago, and many of them have a visceral hatred for them from that time. Two things which people remember is the sleaze at the end of the Government and the harshness at beginning, they put them together and get a corrupt and uncaring Government. They tend not to remember the transformed economy, the end of the strike culture, the international head held high etc.

 

When Labour were evicted in 1979, the feeling (I'm guessing as I was 6 years old) was that many people thought that the Government had their hearts in the right place but were incompetent, especially economically. Throughout the 80's and early 90's the population wanted a Government who could mix the caring image with economic competence. When Labour promised that with Tony Blair's election with a pledge to stick broadly to Tory economic principles, the populace embraced them with glee. Hence the national jubilation on May 2nd 1997.

 

For the Tories, now, this is not possible. The abiding memory will not allow it. David Cameron can only do his best, and the best that can be achieved is that floating voters reluctantly vote Tory. It will be for David Cameron to demonstrate, if he gets into office, that he can mix the economic competence with a compassionate conservatism whilst bringing down the deficit. If he can do this then he will seal the deal, and the following election will be easier to win. It's a very tall order, but with the right mix it is possible.

 

P.S. The Labour party are in a worse position now than the Tories were in 1997. As well as sleaze, they now look incompetent and are increasingly looking like they don't care what happens to the country whilst trying anything to stay elected.

 

Squiffy.

 

Will my prophesy come true, it looks like it has started...

I don't know when the polls will come in but looking at the newspaper headlines, it appears that the media narrative will change once again from a Labour recovery to Labour disaster.

 

Yesterday was another bad day, for everyone. Bad for the Government because they had precious little to give away as an election sweetener, and also bad because they didn't tackle the deficit and showed that everyone earning above £20, 000 is seen as a cash cow to plunder. Bad for the taxpayer, spending is going up next year and the day of reckoning has been put on hold again. It will only get worse. It was another opportunity lost.

 

Thankfully the tax on jobs, i.e. National Insurance rise, may not happen as it is penned to come in 2011 and there will be an election before then. Will the Government risk another awful budget next spring? Maybe not, maybe March 25th is now more likely than not. I hope so. We need rid - now!

 

I'm intrigued by the strategy, if you can call it that, of keeping on with the mantra that you don't cut the deficit and stimulus until the economy grows. The stimulus of the VAT cut will be taken away in 21 days time. What happens if this quarter's growth shows there is none and another contraction? It blows their whole argument out of the water! There's no wonder they reduced the tax on Bingo, they're hoping their numbers come in pretty quickly.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Why is it always me?

The country is in a mess, and so people like me have to pay a bit more. Fair enough. Beforehand, the country is growing with a booming economy so we need to tax those making money to pay for services. Me again.

 

And so it goes on, under a Labour Government, whatever the occasion people who are not the poorest will pay more and more and more. Until you think is it worth it? I could go on benefits and do some things that I enjoy rather than sit around at work getting bored, putting up with the horrible commuting experience, in winter never seeing daylight and earning money which gets taxed more and more heavily.

 

When do I get a break? Oh yes, I remember, under a Tory Government. A party that believes that doing work is good for you, and letting you choose how to spend your own money gives you responsibility, and with extra responsibility you can maybe set up an entrepreneurial enterprise and employ someone else and that by doing such the whole economy grows, tax receipts go up and there is more to spend on the poorest.

 

I'm just counting down to the days when whenever the Government makes a mess of it, they don't just decide to take a look in my wallet and help themselves.

 

So ends the moan.

 

Squiffy.

 

Why can't Gordon own up

Again Gordon Brown has told a mistruth, albeit a minor one. Yesterday in PMQs he said that Spain was a member of the G20. They do attend meetings but are not a member of the G20.

 

Harriet Harman has just popped up and said that he was exactly right to say what he did and that Spain is a member of the G20. Well he wasn't so why can't he just fess up. Last week David Cameron made a mistake in the House about the two schools linked to dubious organisations, but he came back and apologised. The PM seems pathologically unable to do the same.

 

If he needs a refresher, these are the members of the G20, taken from the G20 website www.g20.org:

• Argentina
• Australia
• Brazil
• Canada
• China
• France
• Germany
• India
• Indonesia
• Italy
• Japan
• Mexico
• Russia
• Saudi Arabia
• South Africa
• South Korea
• Turkey
• United Kingdom
• United States of America

Hello, where is Spain? I've looked up and down the list but cannot find it. No, not there. Come on, just be a man.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Gordon wows at last

Gordon Brown's performance today at PMQs was his best - by far. He may not have answered any questions but he was able to get his one liners in effectively and was able to make David Cameron uncomfortable.

 

Will he be able to keep up this level of performance? Only time will tell.

 

Squiffy.

 

My view on the polls

There has been much talk lately of a narrowing of the polls, of hung parliaments and of difficult times ahead for David Cameron. Yes, there been a small narrowing in the polls, mainly due to a softening of the Tory vote and not through a resurgence of the Labour party.

 

I think this has mainly been through the following reasons. Gordon Brown and the Labour party have not managed to slip on a banana skin for the last month, in fact the PM was seen with pity when The Sun made an attack on him. David Cameron had to make the change on policy over the Lisbon referendum, leading to some people talking about moving to UKIP. There was also the incident of Elizabeth Truss and the 'Turnip Taliban'.

 

It all adds up to some small movements in the polls. I don't think this is a defining time though. Never underestimate Gordon Brown's propensity to turn some good news for him into bad news. Next week is the Pre-budget report, and if history is any guide then it will be full of partisan announcements designed to create dividing lines. The public see this for what it is, and want some honesty about what to expect after the election in putting UK Plc's finances back on track. They will not get it, and I think the usual backlash will occur.

 

By mid December, expect to see the Tories back in the low 40's and Labour around 25.

 

Squiffy.