Budget 2012

Today's budget  will be intiguing. In the same way that Gordon Brown used to lay traps for the Tories, George Osborne has laid similar mines for Labour. The headline which the Government would like us to talk about is the increase in the personal tax allowance, but they must realise that the headlines will be grabbed by the 50% tax rate being reduced to 45%.

My own thoughts are that 50% is too high, and practice tells us that anyone earning enough to be in the high tax bracket also has the means to employ tax accountants who can use schemes to reduce the exposure to much less.  Unfortunately for many, they cannot comprehend that you get get more money out of the rich by having lower tax rates. Experience from the 80's when tax was reduced from 83% to 40% on the richest shows that this  truth exists, even if it is hard to grasp!

So, it's economically a good idea to have a competitive high tax band. Politically, though, it is difficult to explain and now the Government is on the hook to try to get the message across. The 50% tax rate is easy to understand, a lower rate bringing in more is difficult and so many people will think that this is the Tories being generous to their friends rather than trying to create a competitive tax system to out a booster under the economy.

Which brings us to the trap. Will Labour go into the next election promising to increase the rate back to 50%, maybe from a lower 40% rate? It is an axiom of modern times that parties lose elections by promising tax rises, so will they risk it even if it on the top earners? A party promising higher taxes on one section of society will be seen as a tax raiser on all.

The most disappointing aspect of the budget was the freezing of allowances for pensioners. This maybe a bigger story over the next few days and may come back to bite the Chancellor.

Squiffy.

F1 2012 is here

It's the start of the 2012 season. I normally give a bit of info on the teams, and this year is no different.

Rule changes
There's two major technical changes and two sporting changes for this year. The blown diffusers at the rear of the car have been banned, this is where the exhausts exited into the underfloor diffuser and help to suck air through the underfloor giving extra downforce. This has been outlawed by new regulations positioning the exhausts at the back of the sidepods facing upwards, but the clever teams are still trying to use the gases to mix with the air over the sidepods and down into the diffuser. The less ambitious teams are merely blowing onto the rear wing.

The other major change is a very visible one. To stop the front nose from puncturing a cockpit at a dangerous height in an accident, the nose has been lowered. Some teams have kept a higher cockpit to channel more air under the chassis, which has lead to a step at the front of the car. I think they look ugly, and F1 cars should not be ugly! Thankfully, McLaren have a different design philosophy and have a normal swooping nose, so on looks alone they deserve to win! The really ugly duckling is the Ferrari, no Ferrari should be that ugly and it reminds me of the 1996 F310.

On the sporting side, during a safety car period the lapped cars will be able to unlap themselves before the restart. This should enable us to see the front cars battling it out at the restart. The one reg change which will catch the drivers out is a change to overtaking. After going off-line to overtake, the overtaker must allow room for the trailing car to make the next corner on-line. This would have stopped Hamilton pulling back on-line when passing Kamui Kobayashiat Spa next year. I'm expecting it catch out quite a few drivers, so watch out Lewis!

Red Bull
The new Red Bull RB8 doesn't look like it has any trick devices, but does look like an evolution of last year's RB7. I expect it to be fast, and formidable in Sebastian Vettel's hands. He is probably going to be the one to beat, yet again, and I still don't see his team mate providing a significant challenge. Mark Webber has to provide some faster performances this year, otherwise, if Lewis is back in form, Red Bull will find tough opposition from McLaren for the constructor's championship.

McLaren
One of two cars to not feature the ugly platypus nose. The team has had a much easier winter testing than last year, when the octopus exhaust lead to the team not being able to complete a race distance. The car looks fast in faster corners, reliable and predictable. I expect McLaren to be providing the biggest challenge to Red Bull again but even more so this year. If Lewis is back in form and on top of the new sporting regulations then he could provide a great challenge this year, but I also expect Jensen Button to have some great races and challenge as well. If not Vettel as champion then Button looks good to make his second championship.

Ferrari
Ferrari look to be on the back foot. The car is ugly and looks like it has a very narrow performance window, which is a big problem in these no re-fueling days. This could be gruelling for the Red Team, after clearing out some of the old guard last year and being more adventurous this year. Luca di-Montezemolo is expecting a championship, and we could be witnessing a resurgence of the chaotic Ferrari politics of the 80s and early 90s.

Fernando Alonso will get the best out of the car, but I can't see this car mounting the top step any time soon. For Felipe Massa it is a make or break year, another year like last year and he will be out. A top team cannot afford to be basing its points on only one driver. If he can get a grip on the tyres then maybe he can recapture old form, otherwise he'll be looking for a new job - maybe mid-season.

Mercedes
The car is looking much better than previous years, and maybe about to challenge the top two. It looks like the car has a new 'f-duct' like device, which scoops air from the rear wing when DRS is enabled, down through the end plates and onto the lower rear wing. Perfectly legal to do this, as the driver has not directly moved to enable the 'f-duct'. It does still look like the Mercedes is slightly heavier on its tyres than Red Bull or McLaren, but will still be fast.

If the car is fast then expect to see Michael Schumacher re-discover his previous form and be more at the sharp end. It will be fascinating to watch the intra-team battle in such circumstances, as both Schumacher and Nico Rosberg are desperate to win a race.

Lotus
There is now only one Lotus team, the old Renault, in JPS style livery. It looks fast in the hands of returnee Kimi Raikonnen, and I expect it to be on the podium occassionally. Possibly even an outside chance of a race win! The team did have a bump in winter testing when a suspension rod failed at the beginning of the second 4 day test in Barcelona meaning that Lotus packed up and went home. We'll have to see whether Romain Grosjean can account himself better than his earlier Renault half season, after Nelson Piquet Jr was booted out.

Force India
The Force India is looking good, with a Mercedes engine, McLaren power train and two great young drivers, I expect this team to be regularly in the points. The car looks more refined than previous years and I'm expecting great things from Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenburg. It will be an interesting intra-team battle, and both will be desperate to get the upper hand.

Sauber
The car looks decent, if nothing special. This small team generally punches above its weight, but they weren't as impressive last year as the year before and there's nothing to convince me that they have discovered anything to push them forward this year. The two drivers Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez are both good, and Kamui can do some great overtaking manouevres. I expect them to make it into Q3 regularly and gain points. We'll have to see if the traditional Sauber drop off in performance occurs again this year.

Toro Rosso
The junior Red Bull team surprised many in the off-season by discarding both Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari. Maybe not wise to discard both, but the junior team is looking to bring on new talent and they couldn't see world champions in either driver. In comes Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Verne. Again, the intra-team battle will be interesting to witness as both drivers try to shine enough to be promoted to the senior team in case Mark Webber retires next year.

The car is again looking like a competent mid-fielder, but will need an epic performance to show Sebastien Vettel, circa 2008, race winning pace.

Williams
One of my favourite teams, it was really disappointing to see them drop back to ninth. Gone are the heydays of the 80s and 90s, but with a renewed relationship with Renault maybe the team can drag itself back up the front of the midfield. Unfortunately, without an experienced driver it may prove difficult. The incoming Bruno Senna has impressed from time to time and I would hope to see some consistent performances from Ayrton's nephew. I'm not convinced by Pastor Maldonado, here more due to money than talent. I hope to be proved wrong.

Caterham
The old Lotus team, now rebranded as Caterham, will be looking to join the midfield. With KERS added, maybe they'll reach the tail end of the midfield but I still expect there to be no opportunities for points. Jarno Trulli was replaced as a driver by ex-Renault Vitaly Petrov after the first winter test, and that is probably a good idea. Trulli has not been impressive in the last few years and has been beaten comprehensively by Heikki Kovalainen.

HRT
No running in the winter, this team is again on the back foot. Bringing Pedro de la Rosa back into racing, means this season has more older drivers than usual. With Narain Karthekayan, I'm not expecting anything other than tail enders again.

Marussia
A better line up than HRT, Timo Glock and newcomer Charles Pic should pull the car ahead. The car looks better than most due to the non-ugly nose, but I don't expect to be surprised by the old Virgin team. Expect it to be fighting it out with HRT for best of the last.


That's it, I expect it to be Sebastian vs Lewis vs Jenson vs Schumacher.

Squiffy.

this season have some of the oldest drivers looking for a new job - maybe mid-season.



hampion then Button looks good to make his second championship.

find tough opposition from McLaren for the constructor's championship.



back on-line when passing Kamui Kobayashiat Spa next year. I'm expecting it catch
hjhjk

How to reform the Lords?

In the Times the other day was a brilliant idea by former Blair speechwriter, Phil Collins, about how to reform the Lords.

The basis of the idea was following on from Billy Bragg's idea of a proportional seat count related to percentage of the vote at the last General election.    The parties would nominate people onto a priority list and those at the top would be elected. The twist that Phil added was that the percentage of election turnout would determine how many seats the parties got, the percentage who did not vote will form the crossbenchers.

To see how this works in practice, with a new chamber of 300 seats. The last election on a turnout of 65%, would give the Tories 70 seats, Labour 57, Lib Dems 45 and the Crossbenchers would be on 105. There would be no majorities, and it would have the option to keep some religious representation and keep the possibilities of having talented people who are not related to parties.

Brilliant.

Squiffy.

Andrew Neil is the country's best national interviewer

At the moment, it may seem that politicos cannot get away from Andrew Neil. He seems to be taking over BBC's coverage of politics. I don't mind that.

I know that some of my friends can't stand him, but that's probably due to their left leaning adherance to anything related to Rupert Murdoch being inherently bad. Mr Neil's old editorship of The Sunday Times explains their dislike. I completely disagree, he has been quite critical of Mr Murdoch recently.

As political interviewers go, though, he is thorough, well researched, knowledgeable, and tries to cut through to the crux of an issue. I like Jeremy Paxman and John Humphries, but they do tend to get hung up on catching interviewee's out rather than getting anything useful out from them. It's entertaining,  but generates more heat than light.

As an aside, I'd love to see a return to terrestial TV of the kind of interviews that Brian Walden used to do, a weekly 1 hour in-depth interview with a prominent politician. I used to love the yearly one between Mr Walden, another great interviewer, and Mrs Thatcher. Who could forget the repeated line, 'He was unassailable' when describing Nigel Lawson's resignation.

Squiffy