Today the Prime Minister gave a reasonably detailed view of the Government's position for Brexit.
I have one thing to say: Wow. Just Wow.
The speech ticked every box. It was ambitious but realistic, sound and measured, detailed but not too detailed. It confirmed what I have been saying for a long time, we'll be out of the single market, will have control over our laws, be practically out of the customs union, and have a comprehensive free trade deal.
She even did enough to say that we are prepared to walk away : "no deal is better than a bad deal" and made a little threat about what we can withdraw from.
I was immensely proud and pleased.
Afterwards I started thinking about the post Brexit world and the contrast to what we've had for all of my life.
Imagine not having those horrendous EU summits every few months where we get ganged up on, where we are forced to swallow some horrible new centralisation. Let's forget all those treaties transferring more powers to the EU. Let's forget all the bashing about taking away our rebate. Let's forget having to choose between a bunch of nobodies to run the most powerful bodies, and then have our choices ignored. Let's ignore all the directives. Let's forget about the wasteful French farmers. Let's forget the ratchet driving towards ever closer union.
Let's think of the new trade deals we can do. Let's think of the laws we can enact, the freedoms we can have again. Let's privatise the railways in the way we want. Let's become the embodiment of free trade. Let's import from Africa with no import tariffs helping to reduce poverty. Let us be free.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 17 January 2017
Monday, 16 January 2017
Theresa May after 6 months verdict
It's now six months since Theresa May became Prime Minister. It has been a time of deep thinking about the EU and a few nuggets of policy about grammar schools and the 'shared society'.
On the EU I think Mrs May has just about got it right. She gave away the broad brush of the deal we will have in her first speech to the Tory conference, control over our borders, control over our laws, and the best trade deal we can do. That means outside the single market, outside the customs union and withe a wide ranging free trade agreement.
In the 6 months since, we've been told that she doesn't know what she wants, she doesn't know how to do it, there's no plan, and that we can have a soft/hard/clean/dirty/scottish/red/white/blue/grey Brexit. She did not want a commentary, and she's just had speculation.
Tomorrow is supposed to be the speech which sets out the direction. It has been widely trailed as saying that we'll be outside the single market, customs union etc....just like she has said all along. I believe she will go as far as saying it but implying it.
She wants to show that Britain is willing to walk away completely from the EU. This is something David Cameron should have done, but he didn't and so he got a crap deal. Mrs May will show we are willing to walk away and the EU will really start to believe it. The EU will then have to look at the numbers and know that it really needs to have a good relationship with Britain. Only then can we make a good deal. Mrs May is playing this just right.
It now looks like we may get the right deal for Britain. Hurray.
On Mrs May's other policies, I think it is too early to say. I like the idea of more grammar schools but it is not a big issue for most people. I like the 'shared society' idea, but then I liked the 'big society', let's see if it turns into something more concrete. I wish she had someone a bit more effective for Prisons, I think Liz Truss is out of her depth. I liked the way Michael Gove was driving reform, and hope someone will pick this up.
I do like the way that she is running the government, A lot less spin, and just getting on with it.
Let's see the speech tomorrow, I hope it will clarify most of Brexit.
Squiffy.
On the EU I think Mrs May has just about got it right. She gave away the broad brush of the deal we will have in her first speech to the Tory conference, control over our borders, control over our laws, and the best trade deal we can do. That means outside the single market, outside the customs union and withe a wide ranging free trade agreement.
In the 6 months since, we've been told that she doesn't know what she wants, she doesn't know how to do it, there's no plan, and that we can have a soft/hard/clean/dirty/scottish/red/white/blue/grey Brexit. She did not want a commentary, and she's just had speculation.
Tomorrow is supposed to be the speech which sets out the direction. It has been widely trailed as saying that we'll be outside the single market, customs union etc....just like she has said all along. I believe she will go as far as saying it but implying it.
She wants to show that Britain is willing to walk away completely from the EU. This is something David Cameron should have done, but he didn't and so he got a crap deal. Mrs May will show we are willing to walk away and the EU will really start to believe it. The EU will then have to look at the numbers and know that it really needs to have a good relationship with Britain. Only then can we make a good deal. Mrs May is playing this just right.
It now looks like we may get the right deal for Britain. Hurray.
On Mrs May's other policies, I think it is too early to say. I like the idea of more grammar schools but it is not a big issue for most people. I like the 'shared society' idea, but then I liked the 'big society', let's see if it turns into something more concrete. I wish she had someone a bit more effective for Prisons, I think Liz Truss is out of her depth. I liked the way Michael Gove was driving reform, and hope someone will pick this up.
I do like the way that she is running the government, A lot less spin, and just getting on with it.
Let's see the speech tomorrow, I hope it will clarify most of Brexit.
Squiffy.
Monday, 2 January 2017
Reflections on 2016
2016 will go down as a bit of a crazy year. For some people it will be the worst of years, and for some it will be best of years. For me, it's a bit of both.
First the negative.
There were a lot of celebrity deaths this year. The BBC Radio 4 programme "More or Less" looked into it a little and their conclusions were that maybe there's a lot of famous people who became celebrities along with mass TV ownership in the 60's and 70's, and these celebrities are now reaching the ages when they start to die off. If that is the case then we'll have to get used to this many celebrity deaths.
Of course, if you look at the people who have died there's quite a lot in their 80s and 90s who one could say had a good run, other's who have died earlier than they should have but had lives with drugs and alcohol, and others for which cancer took them too soon. For me, the saddest are Victoria Wood for the works we have now missed from her genius pen and Carrie Fisher who had put all the bad things in the past and was full of the joy of life.
The other negative was Donald Trump being elected as President. I still can't quite believe how someone so unsuitable for the job has landed it. After all the horrible things he said in the campaign to different groups, such as Mexicans, disabled and women he still managed to nail it where it mattered. It goes to show how unfavourable the US finds Hillary Clinton, that she wasn't able to beat him. Maybe we will be surprised and he won't turn out to be a disaster but I wouldn't bet any money on it!
Also we had the BBC losing Bake off to channel 4. Not a huge story, but for me it is a picture of 'Love productions' the independent company behind the baking tent show putting money ahead of a proven formula. I think they have killed the golden goose and it will fizzle out on Channel 4 without Mary, Mel & Sue. A similar thing could be said for the new Top Gear, it just wasn't as good without Jeremy, Richard and James. Camaraderie amongst presenters cannot be guaranteed.
For me, I was disappointed Lewis Hamilton was beaten to the F1 World Championship, not by Nico Rosberg but by uncharacteristic unreliability. I'm happy for Nico and I'm sure the new champ walked away because he knew he would never be able to do it again - it's best to leave asking 'what could have been'.
Now to the positives.
When David Cameron came back from the EU with barely any concessions to put to the British people I was extremely disappointed. I liked the ex-PM, and after hearing his Bloomberg speech in which he put forward a new manifesto for the EU, I thought he had it spot on. He watered it down for the 2015 manifesto, then watered it further for the negotiation and he came back with mush.
In my mind: 'If the EU is not ready to be more flexible to its second largest contributor of funds when the EU is undergoing problems in all areas then it's time we left.' I had already become deeply disillusioned by the EU project, but this was the icing on the Out cake.
I then became a fervent brexiteer. I think we can make a big success of being a beacon of free trade, and demonstrating that we can be a leading nation in the world again. I seriously think the EU is in danger of completely unravelling over the next few years. The Euro is a disaster, the Schengen agreement is showing to be similar after adding so many poorer nations, but there appears to be no appetite to fix it. For every problem the answer is more Europe.
I was disappointed with project fear, which thankfully has not happened - as I expected.
Overall, I'm really happy we have decided to leave and I think we will be proved right in the end, but it has been traumatic to the British psyche and I regret that.
This a positive for the Tory party, as the bearded wonder is still there guaranteeing the next Tory Government. It's bad for the country and disastrous for the Labour party which is now heading towards oblivion.
The Olympics were marvellous, and Team GB were amazing. I watch a lot of it this time and the cycling and gymnastics stood out for me. I loved it.
Roll on 2017.
Squiffy.
First the negative.
There were a lot of celebrity deaths this year. The BBC Radio 4 programme "More or Less" looked into it a little and their conclusions were that maybe there's a lot of famous people who became celebrities along with mass TV ownership in the 60's and 70's, and these celebrities are now reaching the ages when they start to die off. If that is the case then we'll have to get used to this many celebrity deaths.
Of course, if you look at the people who have died there's quite a lot in their 80s and 90s who one could say had a good run, other's who have died earlier than they should have but had lives with drugs and alcohol, and others for which cancer took them too soon. For me, the saddest are Victoria Wood for the works we have now missed from her genius pen and Carrie Fisher who had put all the bad things in the past and was full of the joy of life.
The other negative was Donald Trump being elected as President. I still can't quite believe how someone so unsuitable for the job has landed it. After all the horrible things he said in the campaign to different groups, such as Mexicans, disabled and women he still managed to nail it where it mattered. It goes to show how unfavourable the US finds Hillary Clinton, that she wasn't able to beat him. Maybe we will be surprised and he won't turn out to be a disaster but I wouldn't bet any money on it!
Also we had the BBC losing Bake off to channel 4. Not a huge story, but for me it is a picture of 'Love productions' the independent company behind the baking tent show putting money ahead of a proven formula. I think they have killed the golden goose and it will fizzle out on Channel 4 without Mary, Mel & Sue. A similar thing could be said for the new Top Gear, it just wasn't as good without Jeremy, Richard and James. Camaraderie amongst presenters cannot be guaranteed.
For me, I was disappointed Lewis Hamilton was beaten to the F1 World Championship, not by Nico Rosberg but by uncharacteristic unreliability. I'm happy for Nico and I'm sure the new champ walked away because he knew he would never be able to do it again - it's best to leave asking 'what could have been'.
Now to the positives.
When David Cameron came back from the EU with barely any concessions to put to the British people I was extremely disappointed. I liked the ex-PM, and after hearing his Bloomberg speech in which he put forward a new manifesto for the EU, I thought he had it spot on. He watered it down for the 2015 manifesto, then watered it further for the negotiation and he came back with mush.
In my mind: 'If the EU is not ready to be more flexible to its second largest contributor of funds when the EU is undergoing problems in all areas then it's time we left.' I had already become deeply disillusioned by the EU project, but this was the icing on the Out cake.
I then became a fervent brexiteer. I think we can make a big success of being a beacon of free trade, and demonstrating that we can be a leading nation in the world again. I seriously think the EU is in danger of completely unravelling over the next few years. The Euro is a disaster, the Schengen agreement is showing to be similar after adding so many poorer nations, but there appears to be no appetite to fix it. For every problem the answer is more Europe.
I was disappointed with project fear, which thankfully has not happened - as I expected.
Overall, I'm really happy we have decided to leave and I think we will be proved right in the end, but it has been traumatic to the British psyche and I regret that.
This a positive for the Tory party, as the bearded wonder is still there guaranteeing the next Tory Government. It's bad for the country and disastrous for the Labour party which is now heading towards oblivion.
The Olympics were marvellous, and Team GB were amazing. I watch a lot of it this time and the cycling and gymnastics stood out for me. I loved it.
Roll on 2017.
Squiffy.
2016 is over, here comes 2017
Every year I try to predict what will happen, I usually get around half of them right. I have a feeling that when I mark myself for 2016 I'll be lucky to get any predictions correct. What a year with so many surprises.
Ok, now to copy and paste last year's predictions, and see the marks:
Ok, now to copy and paste last year's predictions, and see the marks:
- Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship again. 0 points
- Sebastien Vettel will be second in the F1 World Championship and will win more races. 0 points
- Nico Rosberg will leave Mercedes at the end of the year, and Raikkonen will retire. 0.5 points, Rosberg did leave!
- It will be Hilary Clinton vs Marco Rubio for the US presidency. 0.5 points, it was Hilary Clinton but I really though Trump would have been found out!
- Marco Rubio will win the presidency. 0 points.
- The EU referendum will happen this year with Remain winning by roughly 58% to 42%. 0 points, completely wrong.
- The Tories will beat Labour in the local elections by a small margin, with the Lib Dems coming back quite strongly in third. 0.5 point, Lib Dems came bac strongly but Labout just pipped the Tories.
- There will be a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. 1 point
- Douglas Carswell will leave UKIP and stay independent. 0 points
- At least 2 MPs will defect from Labour. 0 points
In total that makes 2.5 points which is pretty pathetic compared to last years' 6.75 points, but given the year we've had I'd take it!
Which makes me come to this year's predictions. Let's see how I fair this year.
Which makes me come to this year's predictions. Let's see how I fair this year.
- Lewis Hamilton will regain the F1 World Championship
- Daniel Ricciardo will be second in the F1 World Championship and it will get tense with Max Verstappen who'll come third.
- Ferrari will fall further into disarray, with Vettel and Raikonnen leaving at the end of the year.
- Francois Fillon will beat Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French Presidency, Emmanuel Macron will be pipped in the previous round.
- Angela Merkel will remain German Chancellor
- There will be another Eurozone crisis following Greece intransigence.
- Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March as predicted by the Prime Minister
- A rough outline of Brexit will be presented. Not a member of the Single Market, a free trade agreement on goods, no free movement of peoples and a sector-by-sector membership of the customs union (wheich we'll not get).
- The parties will stay roughly where they are in the polls, Tories 40%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 9%.
- 2 more Labour MPs will either defect or resign.
- In the Copeland By-Election Labour will narrowly beat the Tories, by less than 2000 votes. UKIP will be a distant third.
Squiffy.
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