What an absolute shower! Part One...

This is a little commentary on the Labour Party during this election campaign.

It's been less than a week since the election was called. At the end of last week Dawn Butler had a car crash interview on the PM programme with Eddie Mair. In it she was trying to claim that Theresa May had rigged the election, by calling it! It's a pretty unusual claim. She then said it had been rigged because the PM had got around the Fixed Term Parliament's Act, but when challenged that Labour had voted for it she had no real response. She then claimed it had been rigged because the Tories were reducing the number of MPs to 600. When asked how many MPs there would be after the election, she had to say the truth: there would be 650 (the boundary changes come in next year). It was a horrific interview!

Jeremy Corbyn managed to last at least a few days without getting into serious trouble but then came his 'big' Sunday interview with Andrew Marr. The first question posed was very hypothetical, if Jeremy Corbyn was elected the first task would be to write letters to the nuclear submarine captains with instructions what to do if Britain had been struck and there was no command structure. Corbyn responded: 'I would stress that we believe in a non nuclear world'. Well, I'm sure the sub captains will find that very reassuring. He went on: 'We believe in peaceful negotiations, and shall try to get the 6 parties together for talks on Korea'. Sure, that's all well and good PM, should I press the button?

When asked if the policy was still for trident renewal, he said the manifesto was not finished yet and that it was up for discussion. Today on the Daily Politics the shadow defence spokeswoman, Nia Griffiths, distanced herself and said the Labour Party policy is to renew trident. Great, but we know, as do all our enemies, that if they strike first, our sub commanders will open envelopes with nothing better than a 'Get Well Soon' message inside! Not much of a deterrence, but then Corbyn doesn't quite understand that principle!

When Corbyn, finally squeaked out something approaching a decent answer to Andrew Marr on the submarine question it was 'Wait for orders' - which would be great if Downing Street had not been annihilated.

The other interesting question was about a drone strike on the leader of ISIS, al-Baghdadi, if the defence and intelligence staff had good knowledge of his whereabouts. Again Corbyn could not say, 'let's take out the bastard' and made usual noises about negotiation and it would be better if he was not around but without any decisive action.

As expected, a complete shower. He will need to answer some of these questions better soon.

Squiffy.

Snap. Didn't see that coming

Theresa May surprised everyone today by putting the wheels in motion for a General Election on 8th June. Normally there are rumours in the weekend papers, but this weekend there were some rumours that she wouldn't face the next election due to not enjoying being PM and with overtones of ill health. When Gordon Brown became PM there were rumours for weeks, which is why it did so much damage when he bottled it.

I completely understand the PMs move. I am sure that she didn't want this election right now and that she meant what she had said when ruled out the election, but apparently on her walking holiday over Easter it dawned on her that to secure Brexit she needed to face down those in parliament determined to frustrate the will of the referendum, and at the same time secure an increase majority for her programme. She would also be able to ditch some of the commitments that David Cameron had made (such as no increase in NI whatsoever).

The timing is brilliant. Just before negotiations really begin, but after Article 50 has been invoked, ensuring that she gets the mandate for her version of Brexit as set out in the white paper.

I've heard a bit of rubbish today though. Firstly, that it's undemocratic for a PM to be able to decide the timing of a general election. How is that undemocratic? If you don't like what she has to offer you can vote against it.

Secondly, that it's political opportunism. Well of course. What PM wouldn't choose the timing of the General Election if they could? Tony Blair did it, Thatcher did it, Harold Wilson did it twice. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act was to re-assure the LibDems that the Tories wouldn't run at the earliest opportunity and bring down the coalition. And if you think that is cynical, it's called coalition politics.

Thirdly, from Paul Mason - the extreme left winger - that now is the time for a progressive alliance. How many times have were heard this? It's not going to happen, especially with that Mason's goon Corbyn running the Labour party!


Anyway, we have 7 full weeks before the election, and it's time to see what this new set of leaders make of it. I expect Theresa May to be competent but remote (she's already said that she won't be in leaders debates). Corbyn to be a catastrophe for his party but with a good start to the campaign descending into rancour and division (let's just wait until he really loses his temper when he has to face the real public and not one of his rallies). Farron will have quite a good campaign and the LibDems will do well. Nuttall will be practically invisible.

I expect Ruth Davidson to really take Nicola Sturgeon on too!

I predict at the end, the Tories will be on 44%, Labour on 25%, LibDems on 18%, UKIP 5%. There will be a Tory Majority of 100ish.

The question following the election is who will be the new Labour leader!

Looking forward to this next campaign.

Squiffy.

Breaking: Article 50 has triggered, the world has not fallen in

Two weeks ago Theresa May triggered Article 50. So far there has been no major change discernible, even Sterling has stayed relatively stable.

We were told everything was going to go to crap as soon as the referendum delivered the 'leave' vote, and it didn't. Then it was going to be when Article 50 was triggered, and it hasn't. I'm guess that we'll continue to get these warnings through the negotiations and then again when we finally leave. Has anybody heard about the boy who cried wolf?

Just one more thing, if I see another Remainer say that we didn't vote for an extreme/hard/soft/welsh/blue/poor Brexit I will scream. They have no idea. Just like Remainers didn't vote for a single state EU/new EU settlement/two speed Europe/seven speed Europe/EU with benefits. They have no idea. The simple fact is people voted to leave the EU, and it was explained to them in literature and interviews by the leaders of both campaigns that it meant leaving the single market and ECJ. Now don't treat people as fools.

Squiffy.

F1 2017 is here

Usually I give a brief look at how the new F1 season is looking but I'm a bit late this year!

We've already had two races in to the season. Vettel has won one, Hamilton the other. Both are leading the championship. It has already become clear that the Mercedes and Ferraris are equally matched, as are their two lead drivers. Whilst Bottas and Raikkonen are a little behind their lead drivers, it looks like the constructors championship will be extremely tight too!

Red Bull have been 30 to 40 seconds back in both races and a bit of a disappointment quite frankly. The reset in the regulations was supposed to be Adrian Newey's chance to catch up, but the car looks clean though under-developed where the Mercedes and Ferrari are the real deal. Maybe they will get there, but I suspect it will be too late to have a huge impact on the championship.

Williams are looking quite good, as are Toro Rosso, but Force India and Renault have quite a bit of catch up to do. The huge disappointment, yet again, is McLaren. The engine yet again is under powered, too thirsty and too unreliable. Alonso is putting a brave face on it, but he won't be there next year. I would not be surprised at all if he walked out mid-year. He has wasted a large amount of his career in non championship winning cars, and that is partly his fault for the way he treated management in his first stint at McLaren.

What about the new rules?

Good so far. The cars have the right shape, the tyres are back to being wide, the rear-wing lower again. It's like the last 19 years have not happened! Apart for the tail fin and the far too complicated wings, flips and flaps. Looking back to last year's car and they already look wrong, just like I felt when they were first introduced.

China showed that overtaking is possible but difficult. Just like it was without DRS. I guess DRS was invented when the rear wings were higher and are just less effective with the lower wings.

I'm liking it so far and the championship race ahead is going to be very exciting. This could be a classic season.

Squiffy