October 19th is key

Phew. It's been a few mad weeks.in politics. SO24 has been triggered and a bill to force the PM to ask the EU for an extension has been enacted. BoJo asked twice for a general election, but the opposition parties refused. Proroguing parliament has been an issue and is now going to the Supreme court.

It's been a crazy time.

It looks like the remainers have got BoJo over a barrel and he is toast. So why does he look reasonably chipper? Apparently Dominic Cummings has a plan, whatever that is.

Here is my hunch of what will happen.

The EU negotiations will continue but it's unlikely anything will come to it. On October 14th when parliament returns there will be a Queen's speech which will then have a debate and vote. On October 17th and 18th there is an EU council, at which Boris will refuse to ask for an extension. This will cause consternation as everyone will think he is breaking the law, but he and the government will resign just before the expiry of the window on 19th October, so just excuse themselves from breaking the law.

The Queen will ask Corbyn to form a Government, but will he be able to? Could the law actually apply to Corbyn with him racing to get a letter to the EU to ask for an extension. Afterwards any Corbyn Government will be voted out in a vote of no confidence. There will then be 14 days to try to find any Government. The likelihood is that there then be an election, taking us beyond 31st October.

If the extension hasn't been asked for, would we be out by default. Otherwise we have an extension, with Boris probably back as PM afterwards with a mandate at the end of the next extension.

We will then leave.

It is so difficult to predict what will happen. We live in the most unpredictable of times.

Squiffy.