Well done Boris. Pull your socks up Cameron.

Now that the local elections are over, we can see that the Coalition got a drubbing and Boris' popularity/Ken's unpopularity gave the Tories their only real victory. I think Boris' victory is a good thing. I'd like him to have a few more ideas, but generally the ideas are better and more believable than Ken's. Mr Johnson is a different figure from 4 years ago. He is more serious now although still has the possibility to entertain. It was a shame that Mr Livingstone could not be gracious in defeat, but hopefully we have seen the last of him now! The overall local results were bad for the Coalition partners. I don't think it was a platform for Labour victory and the situation is recoverable for the Government. It certainly looks worse for the Lib Dems as their local base is becoming ever more diminished. I don't think they will be decimated though and can recover in future elections. The Tories don't look too bad on 31% of the projected national vote, given the austerity measures and the recent bad months. But, the Tories only succeed in Government if they look competent and the last few months has shown them wanting. I think, again, this is recoverable and they have not had another ERM moment. The Tories do need to get on top of the competence issue, though, and not make silly mistakes (such as the date of Abu Qatada's last possible appeal). A change of political weather can happen, Boris' election, a Hollande victory quickly turning to French economic disaster, the GDP figures being revised up and future growth can do it. At the moment, it has been raining too much on the Coalition but Labour does not have a decent rival offering and their progress is a sign of dissatisfaction. So Cameron, don't rush to the right but cut down the silly mistakes, and be seen to be straining everything for growth within your austerity plans and it could come good. Squiffy.

Local Elections live blog 2012

For as long as I stay awake...


Squiffy.

Will a Hollande victory be good for Cameron?

On Sunday France may get a new President. As I've said before, it would be better for France if Sarkozy gets re-elected. It looks, however, that François Hollande will win.

A socialist victory may be a marvellous fillip for the Prime Minister. Just as the Government here is looking a little shaky, with bad economic results spreading from the Euro-zone, could a left-wing victory in France show us what we may have experienced if Gordon Brown had won the 2010 election. High taxes subsidising extra spending, and along with more borrowing could give us an idea of the current Ed Balls plan too.

My hunch is that France will get a very quick shock from the ratings agencies, and and plunge the Euro-zone into more problems. Expect stock markets around the world to plummet on Monday and a large amount of lashing out.

It could get messy, but may be more so for the two Eds.

Squiffy.

France is ready to vote

Tomorrow is the first round in the French Presidential election. It's pretty certain that Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande will go through to the final round.

Let me just say that I wouldn't want to be in France if Hollande wins. His policies of reopening the EU stability pact from December, a 75% top rate of tax and reimposing the 35 hour working week are steps backward. The ratings agencies will have a field day and France will be put under significant pressure.

He's not great and shows petulance, but Sarkozy is France's only reasonable option!

Squiffy.

DC: Time to scream and shout

It has been a turbulent time for the Coalition. Starting with Donorgate, we've had the Pasty tax, the Granny tax, the Caravan tax, the Charity tax, Jerry cans, and finally the dodgy date.

A very bad month, but I think the most of those issues were related to the budget and most of the budget measures were correct. There was bad presentation from the Government. A lot of the controversial measures came out of a desire to simplify taxes (whilst raising a little). The fact that luxury food is supposed to have VAT and other food has no VAT causes quite a few edge cases. One such being take away food, and it seems right that all take away food has VAT and the fact that pasties did not have VAT but Fish & Chips does seems slightly bizarre.

On the Granny tax, why should older people have a different personal allowance to younger workers? It makes no sense to me, older people don't have to pay National Insurance so they already have an advantage. This last year, the allowance has gone up greatly and the proposal is that the differential is gradually fazed out from next year while the normal personal allowance is raised to the same level. It's not a huge figure.

Why should static caravans not have VAT where mobile caravans do have VAT? Those designed as year round houses are still exempt.

The Charity tax is one that perturbs me. I don't like the fact that Charities will be hit by having less money, but it was a revelation to me that rich benefactors could put all their money into Charities and avoid paying income tax at all. It seems fair to pay income tax first and then make charitable donations like most people.

So I still think the budget was fair overall. Which takes me to the unforced errors. Donorgate was plain stupidity by a treasurer who should know better, I don't believe there would have been undue influence. Political funding is a completely separate issue, but its fair to say that those who have money have a great chance to have their views heard as long as they don't buy influence.

The possible fuel strike was badly handled. It made sense to warn people to fill up once a strike day had been announced, but it was cack handed to panic people before the date was set! The Jerry can issue was silly, Francis Maude should be more careful.

The whole issue around Abu Qatada and the date at which he could lodge an appeal is serious. Serious in that it shows how useless the Home Office is. I can't understand why they couldn't wait a day to be sure. I wonder, given the previous month, whether there was some pressure for good headlines. It has spectacularly backfired. It may be a resigning issue for Theresa May because she is ultimately responsible for her department and she should have urged caution before rushing to the House of Commons when there was doubt about the day. The home office is a curse that may have just snaffled its latest victim!

Ultimately, Qatada will probably always have appealed anyway so the bigger picture has not really changed by the date issue but it is adding to a certain narrative. At the moment the Government is looking decidedly amateur. Too many unforced errors and once the idea of a reputation for incompetence takes hold, it will be difficult to get it back. It's what killed the last Tory Government on 16 September 1992.

It's time for David Cameron to bang the table, read the riot act, and make sure his team are double checking every announcement they make.

While I'm at it, DC needs to look after his backbenchers a little more. He is not loved by the right of the party, which is a significant section and he alienates them at his peril. He should not force House of Lords reform down their throats because it could be very divisive. Proposals have been brought forward, as mentioned in the Coalition agreement. It should be a free vote. The Lib Dems should not make a quid pro quo for the boundary review, they had that for the AV vote - they can't use their capital twice!

Squiffy.

Budget 2012

Today's budget  will be intiguing. In the same way that Gordon Brown used to lay traps for the Tories, George Osborne has laid similar mines for Labour. The headline which the Government would like us to talk about is the increase in the personal tax allowance, but they must realise that the headlines will be grabbed by the 50% tax rate being reduced to 45%.

My own thoughts are that 50% is too high, and practice tells us that anyone earning enough to be in the high tax bracket also has the means to employ tax accountants who can use schemes to reduce the exposure to much less.  Unfortunately for many, they cannot comprehend that you get get more money out of the rich by having lower tax rates. Experience from the 80's when tax was reduced from 83% to 40% on the richest shows that this  truth exists, even if it is hard to grasp!

So, it's economically a good idea to have a competitive high tax band. Politically, though, it is difficult to explain and now the Government is on the hook to try to get the message across. The 50% tax rate is easy to understand, a lower rate bringing in more is difficult and so many people will think that this is the Tories being generous to their friends rather than trying to create a competitive tax system to out a booster under the economy.

Which brings us to the trap. Will Labour go into the next election promising to increase the rate back to 50%, maybe from a lower 40% rate? It is an axiom of modern times that parties lose elections by promising tax rises, so will they risk it even if it on the top earners? A party promising higher taxes on one section of society will be seen as a tax raiser on all.

The most disappointing aspect of the budget was the freezing of allowances for pensioners. This maybe a bigger story over the next few days and may come back to bite the Chancellor.

Squiffy.

F1 2012 is here

It's the start of the 2012 season. I normally give a bit of info on the teams, and this year is no different.

Rule changes
There's two major technical changes and two sporting changes for this year. The blown diffusers at the rear of the car have been banned, this is where the exhausts exited into the underfloor diffuser and help to suck air through the underfloor giving extra downforce. This has been outlawed by new regulations positioning the exhausts at the back of the sidepods facing upwards, but the clever teams are still trying to use the gases to mix with the air over the sidepods and down into the diffuser. The less ambitious teams are merely blowing onto the rear wing.

The other major change is a very visible one. To stop the front nose from puncturing a cockpit at a dangerous height in an accident, the nose has been lowered. Some teams have kept a higher cockpit to channel more air under the chassis, which has lead to a step at the front of the car. I think they look ugly, and F1 cars should not be ugly! Thankfully, McLaren have a different design philosophy and have a normal swooping nose, so on looks alone they deserve to win! The really ugly duckling is the Ferrari, no Ferrari should be that ugly and it reminds me of the 1996 F310.

On the sporting side, during a safety car period the lapped cars will be able to unlap themselves before the restart. This should enable us to see the front cars battling it out at the restart. The one reg change which will catch the drivers out is a change to overtaking. After going off-line to overtake, the overtaker must allow room for the trailing car to make the next corner on-line. This would have stopped Hamilton pulling back on-line when passing Kamui Kobayashiat Spa next year. I'm expecting it catch out quite a few drivers, so watch out Lewis!

Red Bull
The new Red Bull RB8 doesn't look like it has any trick devices, but does look like an evolution of last year's RB7. I expect it to be fast, and formidable in Sebastian Vettel's hands. He is probably going to be the one to beat, yet again, and I still don't see his team mate providing a significant challenge. Mark Webber has to provide some faster performances this year, otherwise, if Lewis is back in form, Red Bull will find tough opposition from McLaren for the constructor's championship.

McLaren
One of two cars to not feature the ugly platypus nose. The team has had a much easier winter testing than last year, when the octopus exhaust lead to the team not being able to complete a race distance. The car looks fast in faster corners, reliable and predictable. I expect McLaren to be providing the biggest challenge to Red Bull again but even more so this year. If Lewis is back in form and on top of the new sporting regulations then he could provide a great challenge this year, but I also expect Jensen Button to have some great races and challenge as well. If not Vettel as champion then Button looks good to make his second championship.

Ferrari
Ferrari look to be on the back foot. The car is ugly and looks like it has a very narrow performance window, which is a big problem in these no re-fueling days. This could be gruelling for the Red Team, after clearing out some of the old guard last year and being more adventurous this year. Luca di-Montezemolo is expecting a championship, and we could be witnessing a resurgence of the chaotic Ferrari politics of the 80s and early 90s.

Fernando Alonso will get the best out of the car, but I can't see this car mounting the top step any time soon. For Felipe Massa it is a make or break year, another year like last year and he will be out. A top team cannot afford to be basing its points on only one driver. If he can get a grip on the tyres then maybe he can recapture old form, otherwise he'll be looking for a new job - maybe mid-season.

Mercedes
The car is looking much better than previous years, and maybe about to challenge the top two. It looks like the car has a new 'f-duct' like device, which scoops air from the rear wing when DRS is enabled, down through the end plates and onto the lower rear wing. Perfectly legal to do this, as the driver has not directly moved to enable the 'f-duct'. It does still look like the Mercedes is slightly heavier on its tyres than Red Bull or McLaren, but will still be fast.

If the car is fast then expect to see Michael Schumacher re-discover his previous form and be more at the sharp end. It will be fascinating to watch the intra-team battle in such circumstances, as both Schumacher and Nico Rosberg are desperate to win a race.

Lotus
There is now only one Lotus team, the old Renault, in JPS style livery. It looks fast in the hands of returnee Kimi Raikonnen, and I expect it to be on the podium occassionally. Possibly even an outside chance of a race win! The team did have a bump in winter testing when a suspension rod failed at the beginning of the second 4 day test in Barcelona meaning that Lotus packed up and went home. We'll have to see whether Romain Grosjean can account himself better than his earlier Renault half season, after Nelson Piquet Jr was booted out.

Force India
The Force India is looking good, with a Mercedes engine, McLaren power train and two great young drivers, I expect this team to be regularly in the points. The car looks more refined than previous years and I'm expecting great things from Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenburg. It will be an interesting intra-team battle, and both will be desperate to get the upper hand.

Sauber
The car looks decent, if nothing special. This small team generally punches above its weight, but they weren't as impressive last year as the year before and there's nothing to convince me that they have discovered anything to push them forward this year. The two drivers Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez are both good, and Kamui can do some great overtaking manouevres. I expect them to make it into Q3 regularly and gain points. We'll have to see if the traditional Sauber drop off in performance occurs again this year.

Toro Rosso
The junior Red Bull team surprised many in the off-season by discarding both Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari. Maybe not wise to discard both, but the junior team is looking to bring on new talent and they couldn't see world champions in either driver. In comes Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Verne. Again, the intra-team battle will be interesting to witness as both drivers try to shine enough to be promoted to the senior team in case Mark Webber retires next year.

The car is again looking like a competent mid-fielder, but will need an epic performance to show Sebastien Vettel, circa 2008, race winning pace.

Williams
One of my favourite teams, it was really disappointing to see them drop back to ninth. Gone are the heydays of the 80s and 90s, but with a renewed relationship with Renault maybe the team can drag itself back up the front of the midfield. Unfortunately, without an experienced driver it may prove difficult. The incoming Bruno Senna has impressed from time to time and I would hope to see some consistent performances from Ayrton's nephew. I'm not convinced by Pastor Maldonado, here more due to money than talent. I hope to be proved wrong.

Caterham
The old Lotus team, now rebranded as Caterham, will be looking to join the midfield. With KERS added, maybe they'll reach the tail end of the midfield but I still expect there to be no opportunities for points. Jarno Trulli was replaced as a driver by ex-Renault Vitaly Petrov after the first winter test, and that is probably a good idea. Trulli has not been impressive in the last few years and has been beaten comprehensively by Heikki Kovalainen.

HRT
No running in the winter, this team is again on the back foot. Bringing Pedro de la Rosa back into racing, means this season has more older drivers than usual. With Narain Karthekayan, I'm not expecting anything other than tail enders again.

Marussia
A better line up than HRT, Timo Glock and newcomer Charles Pic should pull the car ahead. The car looks better than most due to the non-ugly nose, but I don't expect to be surprised by the old Virgin team. Expect it to be fighting it out with HRT for best of the last.


That's it, I expect it to be Sebastian vs Lewis vs Jenson vs Schumacher.

Squiffy.

this season have some of the oldest drivers looking for a new job - maybe mid-season.



hampion then Button looks good to make his second championship.

find tough opposition from McLaren for the constructor's championship.



back on-line when passing Kamui Kobayashiat Spa next year. I'm expecting it catch
hjhjk

How to reform the Lords?

In the Times the other day was a brilliant idea by former Blair speechwriter, Phil Collins, about how to reform the Lords.

The basis of the idea was following on from Billy Bragg's idea of a proportional seat count related to percentage of the vote at the last General election.    The parties would nominate people onto a priority list and those at the top would be elected. The twist that Phil added was that the percentage of election turnout would determine how many seats the parties got, the percentage who did not vote will form the crossbenchers.

To see how this works in practice, with a new chamber of 300 seats. The last election on a turnout of 65%, would give the Tories 70 seats, Labour 57, Lib Dems 45 and the Crossbenchers would be on 105. There would be no majorities, and it would have the option to keep some religious representation and keep the possibilities of having talented people who are not related to parties.

Brilliant.

Squiffy.

Andrew Neil is the country's best national interviewer

At the moment, it may seem that politicos cannot get away from Andrew Neil. He seems to be taking over BBC's coverage of politics. I don't mind that.

I know that some of my friends can't stand him, but that's probably due to their left leaning adherance to anything related to Rupert Murdoch being inherently bad. Mr Neil's old editorship of The Sunday Times explains their dislike. I completely disagree, he has been quite critical of Mr Murdoch recently.

As political interviewers go, though, he is thorough, well researched, knowledgeable, and tries to cut through to the crux of an issue. I like Jeremy Paxman and John Humphries, but they do tend to get hung up on catching interviewee's out rather than getting anything useful out from them. It's entertaining,  but generates more heat than light.

As an aside, I'd love to see a return to terrestial TV of the kind of interviews that Brian Walden used to do, a weekly 1 hour in-depth interview with a prominent politician. I used to love the yearly one between Mr Walden, another great interviewer, and Mrs Thatcher. Who could forget the repeated line, 'He was unassailable' when describing Nigel Lawson's resignation.

Squiffy

They want Greece to leave

But they daren't say so. They now ask for things which they dont expect to be fulfilled only fot Greece to surprise them, so thry add an extra condition. Been done many times before, we can spot it!

Good luck with that.

Squiffy

Ken vs Boris

Ken Livingston pulled slightly ahead in the polls for London Mayor last year. This has primarily been due to his promise to cut tube fares by 7% and bus fares by 11%. I can't think where is going to get the money from, as I said here.

Channel 4 News regularly does fact checks on claims by politicians and they've had a crack at Ken's claims. In summary, they don't think he'll be able to finance his fare cuts without cuts in investment. For details see here.

After this news was reported, Ken's supporters were tweeting loudly, so Channel 4 had another go at a claim:

"Fares might be soaring, but the service is plummeting! Delays and line closures have become a daily part of Londoners’ lives."

The details are here, but suffice to say that Boris comes out much better, see the diagram on the right.

Squiffy.

The lynch mob strikes again

Sometimes you have to marvel at the short-termism and idiocy that infects our politics. Since the announcement of Stephen Hester's bonus there has been an outcry, the media, MPs and opposition whipped up a storm and last night Mr Hester felt he had to refuse the bonus.

The stupidity behind the decision stems from what we are asking Mr Hester to do. He came in to run RBS after Fred Goodwin left in disgrace in 2008. His task is to rid the RBS books of the bad debt, bring back profitability and put the bank into a position to be sold off to re-coup the taxpayers money.

He's doing the first of those two items during a terrible economic climate. The share price is bouncing along, similarly to other banks. How are we going to re-coup the taxpayers money? The share price has to rise, valuing the company higher, and enabling the shares to be sold off for a higher price.

Which brings me back to the bonus. The bonus was often quoted as £963,000, but the bonus wasn't cash but shares to the value of £963,000. The shares were not exercisable until 2014, meaning he can't sell the shares now. We need the share price to rise, Mr Hester's bonus would have increased at the same time. The personal monetary incentive for Mr Hester was therefore tied to the future performance of the bank. We benefit if he benefits.

Now he's been stripped of the bonus, what's his incentive? Only his reputation is now staked, but who would blame him from walking away from the job when his compensation package is the subject of the lynch mob. And if he did, who would want to step in - when you could get a banking job in the private sector without the hassle.

We've just shot ourselves in the foot.

As an aside Chuka Umunna, the Labour shadow Business Secretary, has been saying that RBS employees should be treated as public sector employees. No, completely disagree. If RBS is going to become profitable and get the taxpayer its money back it is going to need to compete against the private banks. Mr Umunna's plan would lead to a demoralised staff, leaving in droves and the ultimate failure of RBS.

Squiffy.

The proposed Scottish referendum

Today Alex Salmond announced what he wants the referendum question to be: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?".

I say 'what he wants' rather than saying that the question is a fait accompli. I cannot see David Cameron agreeing to such a question as I'm sure he will think it should mention the UK in some way. I expect the final question to be something like: "Do you agree that Scotland should become independent from the United Kingdom?".

Without mentioning the UK the question is slightly biased as it does not even try to infer what the implications would be. The Electoral Commission would, no doubt, not allow the question to stand.

Squiffy.

No growth, and don't hold your breath

The GDP figures showed a disappointing fall by 0.2%. Of course there will be the usual calls for stimulus measures such as tax cuts, more public jobs, temporary job creation schemes.

It will all be for nought. There will be no recovery until the Eurozone crisis is sorted out. Companies have cash to invest, but no confidence. All measures to try to give a boost will be throwing money away until confidence returns. Confidence will not return until the Eurozone crisis is resolved.

Our growth completely and utterly depends upon Angela Merkel and the other Eurozone leaders coming up with a plan that the market believes. When the market believes it, confidence will return and hey presto, our growth will start to spurt.

Squiffy.

1 trillion and counting

Today marks the day when we have £1 trillion debt. It probably won't stop growing until it reaches £1.4 trillion and will probably never fall below £1 trillion again.

The national debt has grown hugely in recent years. To think that it was only £413 billion in 1997 after all those years beforehand and it's more then doubled in 15 years.

The early years of the Labour government made good and reduced the debt to £385 billion before reverting to type, letting rip and allowing it to expand to £618 by the end of 2007 - the growth years. That's an extra £200 billion borrowed while we were making hay!

The structural debt had become built in as many more people became dependent or assisted by the welfare state and the public sector bloated. Add in the bank bailout and recession and bang, £1 trillion debt.

A somber day for the economy, growth figures tomorrow and Greece and the EU on a knife edge. Welcome to 2012!

Squiffy.

Gripe of the day: Toilet guys

By toilet guy, I mean those blokes who lurk in toilets with a saucer, a hand towel, and cheap cologne - not something less wholesome.

Why has this happened to our loos? Who thought it would be a good idea to have a guy hanging around the loos expecting to get a pound for turning a tap on for you and handing you some paper towel? It really isn't a chore for me to do it myself! I've lived for nearly 40 years on this planet knowing how to wash and dry my hands and I don't need help when in some dingy pub toilet.

In fact I really hate it. Sometimes you feel under pressure to tip them, and are tempted to forego the handwashing so as not to have to face the man with his hand out. My friends and I actively avoid going to pubs who host toilet guys, so let that be a tip to any publicans tempted to employ such a man.

Squiffy.

The Iron Lady

Have just watched the Iron Lady. To say that Meryl Streep made a great performance would be to understate the brilliance of it.

As a diary of a frail woman dealing with dementia it was also a great film, but as the biopic of one of the most important women of the 20th Century it is lacking.

As an unbelievably supportive husband, it is hard to imagine Dennis asking Mrs T to put family before running for Tory leadership.

There are also several inaccuracies, such as rubbish piling up whilst the Tory party was in Government during 70-74, it was the winter of 78-79. Apart from a small summary of her time as PM, apart from the Falklands, it whizzes through the years.

I'm not sure the incident which caused Geoffrey Howe to resign is accurately reflected, there is no mention of the previous EU summit which so annoyed her.

It's a good film with a great performance about an old woman with dementia dealing with the loss of her beloved husband. As a story about Mrs T and her years in power, it could be much better.

Squiffy.

The London Mayoral Campaign has truly started

This morning on the way to the tube, a couple of people were trying to thrust some leaflets at me. The leaflets were from the Ken Livingstone Mayoral campaign.

It was a good choice by Ken's team to run the leaflets today, on a day when tube fares are going up by 6%, as the leaflets re-iterated Ken's promise to reduce fares by 7%.

The question is where is Ken going to get the money from? It's an old political question, but all the more potent now that we have less money to play with. I don't believe the Livingstone campaign has really answered this yet, the money they have mentioned has already been spent by Transport for London, according to Mayor Boris.

The current Mayor has restricted some programmes so that the council tax precept for the Greater London Authority has remained flat for the last three years - a great help at the present time. I think that if Ken is elected, fares will go down for one year only, then shoot-up to pay for a deficit in the GLA's finances, along with a hike in the council tax precept.

I don't believe politicians promising something for nothing, so Ken has much more to do.

Squiffy.

2012 Predictions

Last year was poor, let's see how well I can do this year. So here's the 2012 predictions...

1. At least one country, probably Greece, will exit the Euro. The Euro will survive though.
2. Ed Miliband will have another bad year, though the talk will be of being replaced by Yvette Cooper.
3. Britain will win around 24 golds at the Olympics.
4. The Diamond Jubilee will be a great success and provide a bounce to the coalition of around 5% in the opinion polls.
5. Sebastien Vettel will win his third World Championship, closely from Lewis Hamilton.
6. Chris Huhne will resign from the Government when facing charges of speeding & perjury.
7. A reshuffle will see David Laws make a return to Government.
8. In the Euro 2012 championship, England will get knocked out in the quarter finals.
9. Mitt Romney will face Barrack Obama in the presidential election, and Obama will win.
10. The polls will remain similar to now, Tories 39%, Labour 42%, LibDem 12%.
11. Boris will win the London Mayoral election, defeating Ken by 6%.

Everyone have a great year.

Squiffy.

2011 Predictions revisited

2011 is over, let's see how badly I did...

David Laws will make an early return to Government, in a reshuffle sometime in January or February. 0 points.

The AV referendum will be narrowly lost, but on a low turnout. 1/2 point - it wasn't so narrow

Vince Cable will walk out of the Government. 0 points

Ed Miliband will have a poor year despite the polls and there will be a whispering campaign around to bring his brother back. 1 point

Diane Abbott will walk out of her shadow portfolio. 0 points

The coordinated strikes threatened for Easter will be a damp squib compared to the jollity of the Royal Wedding. 1/2 point.

Sebastien Vettel will be F1 World Champion again, just beating Lewis Hamilton. 1/2 point - Vettel won, but by a healthy margin over Button

Michael Schumacher will walk away from F1 mid-way through the year. 0 points

CPI Inflation will hit 4.0%, but we will have annual growth of 1.8%. 1/2 point, CPI did hit 4%, growth was worse than 1.8%

The parties will end the year on: 39% Tories, 42% Labour, 12% LibDem. 1 point.

Overall 4 points, which is pretty bad. Let's see what next year brings...

Squiffy.