Tuesday 7 April 2009

The dead cat that did not bounce

Last week's G20 meeting seemed to be relatively successful for the Prime Minister, whether it is successful in bringing the worldwide recession to an end we'll have to wait and see. But for Gordon Brown, the threatened walk outs and violent demonstrations did not happen and he could pose in his favourite position as Chancellor to the world spouting large figures such as the $5 trillion fiscal stimulus. Never mind that the figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt (the $5 trillion being the total amount spent through the recession by all countries, including the natural automatic stabilizers such as unemployment benefit rather than specific fiscal stimuli packages).

For GB, it looked good and I would have been predicting a 5% increase in the Labour party poll figures which would quickly disappear as reality stepped in. The first poll (for YouGov) had the party increasing by 4%, but the second poll (for Populus) taken after the meeting showed no increase in the Labour party position and the Tories advancing by 1 point. It's too early to say whether the G20 lustre has so quickly faded, but it may be that the dead cat did not bounce this time. In fact it looks like the dead cat has been to a taxidermist and has that very strange stare that only stuffed animals and expense challenged MPs get.

Squiffy.

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