Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Alternative vote referendum is on

So, we learn that the alternative vote referendum is going ahead, along with a reduction in the size of constituencies.

It was disappointing that the language was no better than under Labour. Ken Clarke, noticably, did not walk backwards after giving the speech to the Queen.

Squiffy.

The state opening of Parliament

I'm on holiday but still managing to watch the state opening of Parliament. The day when new meets old; new proposed laws meets the tradition of centuries.

I believe there will be 21 bills, including the most important aspects to control the deficit and set up free schools.

Squiffy.

Saturday, 22 May 2010

Ed Balls does the usual - dividing lines

Blinky Balls has come out against the Iraq war. Bit late I know, and for someone with loads of influence over his then master - Gordon Brown - it is possible that he could hadve stopped Britain's involvement by getting Brown to oppose the invasion.

Call me a silly old sceptic but am I sensing one more of the famous Brown/Balls dividing lines. Possibly, he probably hadn't factored in that the other Ed would join the party!

Squiffy.

Thursday, 20 May 2010

Why take on the 1922 committee?

I don't think I understand why DC had to take on the Tory 1922 Backbench committee. Maybe he suspects that it will cause him massive problems in the coalition or that Graham Brady, the likely new chairman, will make waves. By trying to make the 1922 a meeting of the whole Parliamentary Conservative Party he's made the awkward squad more stubborn and more likely to vote him down on a significant issue.

I don't understand why he is taking on his own party in which sections are still smarting from having their red meat removed from the manifesto menu. The 1922 committee will re-form under a new name and maybe go underground and cause more problems. He may have a much grander plan which he is playing out like chess, but he is playing with Tory fire. It won't be long before they turn...

Squiffy.

Early morning weirdness - Abbott to stand

Sometimes a moment in the morning makes you think you've woken up in a parallel universe.

One such moment came when Diane Abbott announced that she would stand for Labour Leader. It was unexpected and James Naughty was lost for words. Me too, it looks like this race might be more fun than first thought.

Squiffy.

Tuesday, 18 May 2010

David Miliband says the era of New Labour is over

The nerdy half of the 0.2 centibands told us that new Labour is over. It's not a good start though as he was re-announcing his candidature. Re-heating announcements is so last decade.

Squiffy.

Monday, 17 May 2010

Alistair Darling lives in another world

The new Government has been busy telling the press that there are new spending commitments made in the last days of the old Government and blaming the old Government for the country's economic mess. Fair enough you may say.

Up pops Alistair Darling saying that it's the oldest trick in the book to blame the previous Government. Really! You surprise me. I can't remember the last Government blaming the previous Tory Government. No wait a minute, they did exactly that again and again, right until they were booted out.

The country's finances are a mess. Labour was in charge. It is Labour's fault. Get used to it, learn from you mistakes and promise not to do it again. And this time mean it. Next time you're in Government don't leave your successor an almighty mess to clear up - it would be a novelty.

Squiffy.

Some time for reflection

I've taken some time away blogging, so that the picture can settle and we can begin to get a clear view of the new politics.

Now that the new Government has started its serious work, I feel it is now time to give some thoughts and observations.

Firstly, it seems that the public are broadly supportive of the new coalition Government and wish it to succeed. I think the public just want the Government to get on with it now, announce the pain that we are going to have, let us feel it for a few years and then begin to get us out of this trough.

It appears that the vast majority of Tory and LibDem MPs are also supportive but there are rumblings on the Tory right and LibDem left. I can sympathise with the Tory right as it appears that a few too many policies were ditched to enable to coalition. I can sympathise with the LibDem left who always envisaged a relignment of the left, but the maths made it impossible.

I think we need a period to see how the new coalition performs before complaining. I'm heartened by David Cameron's reach out to Frank Field, as I think he has the right ideas about poverty and welfare. He will have to throw the right some red meat soon though to placate them and firm up his position.

I believe that David Cameron has been extremely bold in not choosing the easy option and going for the coalition. He is seeing a larger picture than the rest of us. He wants a realignment of the centre-right, for he knows that the Orange-book LibDems are closer to One-Nation Tories than Labour.

Maybe the end goal for the Tories and Labour (and one in which Nick Clegg must have foreseen) is to split the LibDems down the middle, back to their roots. The Libs, back in their Whig days, are close to the Tories. The Dems are social democrats closer to New Labour. The coalition may highlight the contradictions that are built into the LibDem party which have been papered over for too many years.

Let's look at some of the new policies. I agree with fixed term parliaments, but the 55% majority required for a dissolution is arbitrary and should be dropped. There needs to be a cross party consensus on a way forward for fixed term parliaments.

It's good to see that George Osborne is going to include all the PFI projects and off-book pension liabilities in the overall deficit. It is frankly ludicrous to omit certain items. He does run the risk that the overall deficit which could be heading towards £3Tr, could scare the bejesus out of the markets but I would expect them to know better. It looks like he's going to make a very early start to cuts, next Monday, indeed and not a moment too soon.

I don't like the increase to Capital Gains Tax and NI contributions for employees. The Tories should have stuck to their guns, and said that they wanted to increase the personal allowance to £10K (which I support) at some point in the future, but we cannot afford it now.

I think the referendum for AV is fine, but I'm glad it did not go as far as PR. I'd like to see a quick move to elect members of the House of Lords by PR though. We do need to keep some elements of party independence in the House though, via some form of appointments.

Anyway, I wish them well so far. We'll be watching closely.

Squiffy.

Tuesday, 11 May 2010

Going to bed with a smile on my face

It's been 13 long years, of hope, disappointment and then anger.

As a natural Tory, even I believed that some things would get better in 1997. It wasn't so bad, those first four years; the Labour party hadn't unleashed, at that point, the usual spending splurge.

Then after 2001, it did. It was necessary to some extent, to fix some of the funding issues in the NHS and Education, but then it became the only answer to every problem. As the spending went out of control, each year we were told it was spending for investment and not for current spending, I felt this would end in tears. Eventually, it did go wrong and as the economy tanked the Labour party only knew one way to get out of it. Spend more.

On other fronts the Labour Party was good for me. I was eternally grateful for social policy. I had the happiest day of my life when I had my civil partnership with the love of my life in 2008, and that was unthinkable under the Tories of old. Time has moved on, and gay issues are largely neutered - I feel like a full member of society.

But as time went on, earning a middle income wage, it felt like whenever anything went wrong the Government felt they could put its hands in my pockets whenever it felt like it. I know I need to pay my fair share, but it started to feel like an unfair share as you could turn on ITV in the morning and watch someone of a similar age who had never done a day's work, living off state benefits, spending their days watching TV, getting people pregnant and drinking their lives away. I quite frankly resent that.

The outright lying by allowing the Lisbon treaty was the worst politicking I can remember, absolutely shameful. Gordon Brown took the spin to new depths, even after saying that he wouldn't spin. The PM could spin for himself, but would have negative results. The twisting and turning over the "boom and bust" quote, and redefining the economic cycle whenever he felt like it were terrible.

So, tonight, I look towards a new Prime Minister, a new Government and a new Tory/LD Britain. I expect less spin and more efficient but quiet Government. I expect more respect from Government, I want them to treat people as adults, and I would - eventually, when we've sorted out the economic mess - like to see less taxes and more enterprise.

I believe that Labour MPs have the right hearts but don't know how to enact their policies to achieve the right results. I believe Tories also have the same hearts, but have a different but seemingly uncompassionate method of achieving the same aim. It's unfortunately unpopular, but I feel that the Tory methods are more likely to achieve the aims that both Labour and Tories wish to achieve.

Tonight I go to bed in hope again, as in 1997. But I'm a realist and this time I hope the disappointment will be much less.

Squiffy.

Will the parties sit as clique's on the green benches?

When Parliament starts next week, will the Tories and Lib Dems be mixed up on the same benches or will they sit in their party cliques....

Just a question.

Squiffy.

Prime Minister David Cameron's (+ Nick Clegg's appointments)

It is looking like the following is happening:

George Osborne as Chancellor
William Hague as Foreign Secretary
Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister
Vince Cable as Chief Secretary of the Treasury
David Laws as Education Secretary
Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary

I think I would put David Davis as the Home Secretary, Chris Huhne as Environment Secretary, Ken Clarke as Business Sec, Frank Field as Work & Pensions (as a cross-party move). I would keep Liam fox as Defence Secretary and not Lord Ashdown, because Paddy was being very sniffy this morning and was reportedly pushing for the Labour deal.

It's amazing that Lib Dems will have a minister in each department - that might cover half the Lib Dem party - surely that doesn't mean that the best person for the job gets it.

More news as we get it....

Squiffy.

David Cameron as PM

He first started with some good words about the previous regime: "Old government was open at home and compassionate abroad."

The aim is for a coalition with the Lib Democrats. He mentioned responsibility and some of the tough decisions ahead.

A good statesman like speech, highlighting how difficult it will be.

We now await the details of the coalition.

Squiffy.

David Cameron arrives at the Palace

We have a new Prime Minister, David Cameron. Well done David. I wish you the best of luck in making this country a better country.

Squiffy.

Gordon Brown resigns

Gordon Brown has resigned as Prime Minister. You always feel a little sad for the individual involved even if you completely disagree with them. He was obviously emotional and you could feel it when he said how much he loved Sarah and the sons.

We don't know when David Cameron will be called for and at the moment we have an absolute monarchy.

God save the Queen!

Squiffy.

Things are moving quickly now

It appears the Lab/LD talks are over. There is talk of bags being packed in Downing Street. If this is the case, I may have to open a bottle of wine.

Squiffy.

Moving back to a Con-LD coalition

The words coming out of the Lab-LD talks are that there are difficulties with bringing the deficit down - which is more serious than the difficulty with PR. It also looks like Ed Balls has been rude in the meeting which is why Lord Mandelson had a face of thunder.

Iain Dale is saying that Nick Clegg and Vince Cable want to do a deal with the Tories, Ming Campbell and Paddy Ashdown are stopping them. Oh dear.

Squiffy.

Get ready for the Lib Dems to do no deal

Nick Clegg needs to row back from his current position. He knows now that he is damaged goods. He may have personally wanted to do the Tory deal, but was browbeaten into opening talks with Labour. But if he is sensible, he needs to draw a line. If I was David Cameron I would put a time limit of 11am for a decision to force Nick Clegg's hand.

Nick Clegg has to say there will be no deal, but Lib Dems would abstain on a Queen's Speech and Budget. This would enable a Tory minority Government to do enough to start sorting out the financial mess and guarentee an election later in the year.

Anything else now would be very bad. The Lib Dems cannot be trusted, and any coalition needs to have some element of trust at its heart.

Squiffy.

Monday, 10 May 2010

Adam Boulton vs Alastair Campbell

Fight fight fight...



Squiffy.

David Cameron speaks to Nick Clegg; Lib Dems to meet at 10pm

Apparently DC has spoken to NC, and the Lib Dem MPs are going to meet at 10pm. I'm guessing that DC has put down an ultimatum to Nick Clegg and said that he has to make a decision tonight.

He has probably made it clear that Nick Clegg can not play Labour and the Tories against each other in some cheap bartering. Tonight has still some way to play out.

Squiffy.

The pound is crashing right now...

It's already lost a cent.

Squiffy.

Nick Clegg has made the biggest mistake of his life

By opening the negotiations to Labour before the Tory negotiations have been complete has shown immaturity. He has now set in motion a sequence of events which will have a major negative effect on the Lib Dems and lead to a large Tory majority.

Firstly, the Tories had to respond quickly. They have just done so, with an open offer of a referendum of AV, but this is time limited and the last offer. I think this is a masterstroke by George Osborne. The Lib Dems have a very quick decision to make.

If they try to form a coalition with Labour, they may not succeed. But the one thing that will happen is that they will be severely punished. Either by a split or an election catastrophe. A second unelected Prime Minister without the winner of the election campaign will sign their death knell for years. They will not win a referendum if they try - not now.

I think they will be severely punished anyway now. They have put their own interests above the country's. If the Con-LD offer is refused, the economy will tank. It may do so tomorrow anyway because the coalition will be very unstable.

Nick Clegg is playing with fire, I think he has made a huge tactical mistake. The country is now going to be punished, and we will punish him.

Squiffy.

GB is going

Gordon Brown has finally tendered his resignation as leader of the Labour party whilst facilitating negiotiations between Labour and the Lib Dems.

It's good that he goes, but if he thinks that a Lab-LD coalition is likely then he is in cloud cuckoo land. That wouldn't be the first time.

Squiffy.

The likely options - anything but Lab-LD

It's midday on the Monday after the general election and there is no effective Government in this country. The Lib Dems and Conservatives are still talking and there is a deadline of this evening in place, put by Nick Clegg.

I think the most likely option is that there will be a Con-LD coalition, with the 4 key principles still in play. The 'political reform' will include MP recall, reform of the House of Lords and changes to political funding. I think there will be a committee on electoral reform and a free vote on a PR referendum.

If this happens it will be quite difficult to get it through the Tory party, but I think they will with grumbling. I think the LDs will get it through with a few minor defections to Labour. I then think that the LD vote share in the polls will plummet with many saying they would not help prop up a Tory Government. The pact would last two years.

The second most likely options is a supply and confidence agreement with Tories operating as a minority with support for some political reforms and the budget and a small Queen's speech. The Lib Dems will grumble about this but continue until later this year when a second general election will be called. The LDs would do badly in this election.

The least likely option is that of a Lab-LD coalition. Primarily because the numbers don't add up to make a majority and would need the rag tag of other smaller parties. Any kind of rainbow coalition would be extremely unstable and would show that there is no willingness to deal with the deficit as the Government would be in hock to vested local interests. The economy would tank quickly and we would have a general election in the summer.

The other reason why this is unlikely, is that Nick Clegg cannot be so stupid to believe that the country would accept a new unelected Labour leader, and even more so that any Labour leader cannot deliver on a promise of PR. Most MPs in the Labour party prefer First-Past-The-Post and so the LD leader would need to have a lobotomy to believe any PR promises. Especially as the Labour party would be going through a moment of soul-searching.

Finally, again the LDs would have a few defections and would tank in the polls. Any solution is probably bad for the Lib Dems, but any Lib Dem voter who thought that any of the possible scenarios above should not happen is obviously living in cloud cuckoo land. These are the scenarios that a vote for the LDs infer. It also demonstrates the hazards of PR - we are having the PR demo right now...

Squiffy.

Hello on the Jubilee line

This morning was bad on the way to work. Not only is it monday, but there were two incidents of people being ill on tubes in front, another tube had a pull of the emergency cord and the train I was on had to be taken out of service due to a door fault.

Thankfully now that Boris has pulled the plug on the crappy PPP, we may get a tube system that works better.

Squiffy.

Sunday, 9 May 2010

Could Brown be about to jump?

The Prime Minister has arrived back in London and is speaking individually to cabinet ministers. This sounds like he maybe about to make his intention to resign as leader of the Labour party.

It sounds like phone calls with Nick Clegg have not gone well. They may be discussing a handover to someone else as a caretaker in the hope that it may encourage the Lib Dems to make a deal. That would be my hunch.

Squiffy.

Friday, 7 May 2010

Election aftermath blog



Squiffy.

The people have spoken: we don't know

It's a shame that the public cannot decide. We have the worst of all worlds...I think we will rue today. An election in september beckons.

Thursday, 6 May 2010

Election Live Blog

I'll be blogging live from 10pm. Join me here as I give my thoughts until such time as I get tired or drunk!



Squiffy.

10 predictions for the day

1. Turnout will be up at 72%
2. The Tories will win a slim majority.
3. The percentage share will be Tories 38%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 25%.
4. The seats tally will be Tories 336, Labour 216, Lib Dems 79.
5. Gordon Brown will resign at 9 a.m.
6. David Cameron will accept that he is Prime MInister in a small gathering at 7 a.m.
7. Ed Balls will keep his seat but Jon Denham will not.
8. Charles Clarke will make a scathing attack on gGordon Brown just after the exit polls have been published.
9. The polls will be shown to have understated Tory support while overstating Labour support by 2% each.
10. Frank Field will be made a minister in the new cabinet.

Squiffy.

Queuing at the polling station

Never been a queue at a polling booth before when I've gone to vote. This is going to be a big turnout.

Squiffy.

Today's the day.

After 5 years of waiting for this Labour government to come to an end, it is nearly in our grasp. Some things they did right, bank of England independence, funding the NHS and civil partnerships to name a few, but they got so miuch wrong - especially with the economy - that they need to be put out of their misery.

The next few years will be very tough. We need to get a grip very quickly and sort ou the mess, then we can look to a brighter future. There's only one person and party I trust to do that.

Today, put your cross against the Conservative candidate and let Great Britain be Great again.

Squiffy.

Tuesday, 4 May 2010

Cats in a bag

The tension has been building for a while, but as we head into the last week the bubble has burst.

Manish Sood the Labour PPC for Norwich north west says that the PM is the worst we have had. The full Labour smear machine turned on him with Jack Straw saying even his mother disowned him.

Other Labour figures are now positively encouraging tactical voting. They know they cannot win and so all unity is breaking down.

Friday morning is going to be fascinating.

Cats in a bag. Lets throw them into the water.

Squiffy.