My message to the EU

Get over it. It doesn't work, it won't work, accept it, move on.

Squiffy.

Dan Wheldon, RIP

It is such a shame that Dan Wheldon has died in the horrific accident at Las Vegas. He was a fantastic racer, winning the Indy 500 twice and IndyCar championship in 2005. It was a shame that he was dropped from a permanent seat this year due to lack of sponsorship.

It seems like it was too small a venue for 34 cars and was probably an accident waiting to happen.

Dan Wheldon, rest in peace.

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband: life in cloud cookoo land

A bad speech, from a bad orator. Absolutely hopeless.

Squiffy.

Crunch time

As George Osborne says, we have 6 weeks to save the world economy. It's amazing how badly the world leaders are performing. David Cameron and the Chancellor are doing their best to gee the major economic powers up to do something, but to no avail.

Greece cannot be saved within the Euro. Fact. It will default. Accept it, let it happen in as orderly way as possible and shore up the other Eurozone economies. It will be awful, but the delaying tactics are making the day of reckoning look worse and worse.

Day by day, rating agencies are downgrading banks and countries. The Eurozone banks are in danger, they desperately need to be recapitalized, like the UK banks were in 2008. It is a fact that there has been no Eurozone bank to bank lending in the last 10 weeks. That is very unusual and shows that we are already in another credit crunch.

There needs to be some grasping of nettles, grabbing bulls by horns, and some leadership.

Angela Merkel needs to grow a pair, and stop worrying about her election prospects. If she can help turn the Eurozone around then she'll deserve re-election. As of now, she doesn't. The writing's on the wall for Greece and she needs to recognise that.

There needs to be another round of quantative easing in the US and UK. We need to move some money around to kick start capital projects without adding to the deficit.

Italy needs to have a firm plan for deficit reduction. Spain needs a new Government with a similar plan. France needs to desperately recapitalize their banks. A reduced Eurozone (without Greece and a few others) needs to issue Eurobonds. There needs to be closer fiscal consolidation in the Eurozone.

We can thank Gordon Brown for recapitalizing our banks, and for keeping us out of the Euro. But we can also curse him for flouting his own "golden rule", throwing lots of money down the drain and giving us a large structural deficit. we now have little room for manoeuvre.

Hopefully the G20, maybe inspired by David Cameron, will come to the worlds's aid. We can only hope.

Squiffy

Erm, Nigel Lawson?

Funny how Nigel Lawson has been on the radio talking about how the whole Euro project was a disaster from the get go.

I seem to remember that he was very keen on the ERM, the pre-cursor to full monetary union. It was partly the reason for his resignation, along with disagreeing with Margaret Thatcher's economics advisor, Alan Walters.

He had also run a policy of shadowing the Deutschmark, one reason for the "Lawson blip" or early Nineties recession. Bit rich to now be banging the anti-Euro drum now isn't it?

Squiffy

Postscript to last Thursday's Question Time

Last week the latest series of Question Time started. It was a 'special' about 9/11.

What struck me most was the good points and reasonableness of David Miliband. It really struck me how much Labour messed up by electing his younger brother.

David Miliband has the stature to be statesman rather than an opportunist like his brother.

When will Labour realise, or have they already?

Squiffy.

Memories of 9/11

It will be 10 years tomorrow that the twin towers came down. I, like most people, have vivid memories of that day.

The day started normally, I had my lunch and was quietly working when my boss received a phone call from his American wife. She told him that a plane had hit the world trade centre. We all looked on the BBC news website, which was creaking under the strain.

We then heard of the second plane going into the South tower. We headed down to the main office. Our company was Venture capitalist funded, and one of the other companies they funded had really large TV screens.

We started watching in disbelief at the unfolding atrocity. I remember watching in horror that some people were leaping from the top, and I'm sire I saw one clinging to the side before falling. I thought how hellish it must have been for them to think throwing themselves to their death was a better fate.

And then it got worse. The South tower came down. Terribly weakened by the fire half way up, it collapsed. Apart from the death of thousands of people in there, including those trying to rescue such as brave firemen, that must have been absolutely terrifying for those in the North tower.

They may have been under the impression that the towers would survive and they could calmly descend to the bottom. The realisation that they were in a race against time must have been truly horrendous.

When the second tower came down, we continued to watch, hoping there would be no more atrocities but we heard of other hijacked planes. Thankfully there were no more images of the other crashes that day apart from a grainy picture if the Pentagon.

I left the office at 6 and watched more news at home, struck by the tragedy of it all. The enormity of it hit my emotions, and I remember crying for around 15 minutes.

I turned in early but didn't really sleep.

The world changed that day, and the stories we hear today reminds us of what we faced. It was the modern apocalypse. A vision of hell on earth.

Squiffy.

A bridge too far

Apologies for not posting as often as I once did. Especially for the one reader...

The last six months have been really busy. I'm in a new job in a new industry, which is a lot more stressful than before. I've also started playing Bridge, two or three times a week. It's a great game of partnerships and cooperation, maybe something the coalition could learn from.

Which brings me to the wondrous prophet, Vince cable. There's a saying that if you put 100 economists in a room you'll get 200 opinions (or something like that). The business secretary show this admirably.

Today, in the same interview, he says that the banks need to be broken up now but also that his great worry is about growth! Does he not get that a complicated overhaul of banking regulation now will damage prospects for recovery. Better to leave it until the recovery haz bedded in for a couple of years.

He also days that he's not worried about anew financial crisis. In April he said that he was most worried about a new financial crisis. The man is no sage after all.

In fact he's a bit of an embarrassment now. What once seemed refreshing now seems like muddled headed ness.

Squiffy.

Lewis Hamilton, too many mistakes

I'm a big fan of Lewis Hamilton. He's fast, audacious and exciting. Unfortunately, he is making too many mistakes. Today, in Spa, he had a good chance of winning and yet again a collision took him out. Others thought that it was Kamui Kobayashi's fault, but it is clear that Hamilton took a line which was unnecessary and he wasn't looking to find where Kamui's car was.

It is a trait which is becoming a bit too frequent. His wins are fantastic, and I'm still a fan but please, Lewis, stop making the silly mistakes - just take a bit more care. Especially when overtaking fiery characters such as Kamui Kobayashi!

Squiffy

Livingstone shame

I'm usually one for accepting that occasionally politicians mis-speak and we should let it pass, but I think Ken Livingstone has gone a bit too far this time.

On the back of calling someone a Nazi concentration camp guard a few years ago, he has now said that his London opponent, Boris Johnson, is like Hitler. He also says that the poll will be a contest between good and evil.

Finally, he goes on to say that anyone not voting for him will burn in hell.

He was probably joking and meant it all light-heartedly, but many a true word spoken in jest. I think the jokey comment belies his true inner feelings. So maybe not a joke at all.

Quite a few people on the left think that people on the right are evil. Only today I was reading an article by John Redwood responding to John Harris in a newspaper. Mr Harris thought Redwood seemed to like inequality and poverty. Mr Redwood had to respond that he believes in getting rid of inequality and liberties as much as the next man, but through different means.

We don't believe in paying people to keep them in the ghetto, whilst taxing people so hard that they think working isn't important. We think responsibility, self-respect and saving more of the money you earn will encourage people to make a life for themselves.

Ken believes that these views are wrong, possibly evil. I may disagree with him, but I believe he wants to do good even if he is mistaken in the means. But he has proved that he is not fit to be Mayor again.

Squiffy.

UK Riots: Day 4

It's been a scary few days in our major cities. Thankfully, my neck of the woods has been ok so far.

The thugs and scum responsible for these mindless acts of violence should be locked up. They have no legitimate excuse for what they have done.

It is such a shame that so many of our young can get involved in this level of disorder. It goes to show how deficient some modern day parenting is. Why were these kids out on the street so late? The parents should have a short sharp shock too.

It makes me feel so sad that modern day Britain can have descended so low in the moral morass. Like some of our politicians, their morals for finding an excuse in poverty, jobs, drop of EMA shows how far some have sunk. Ken Livingston and Harriet Harman are two such people.

It's also a shame that I'm not all that surprised by it all.

Squiffy.

Fascinating TV: Vote 2011

Just watching TV. Chris Huhne lashing out at the Tories, and then Labour. The Yes campaign are now in-fighting.

Facinating.

Squiffy.

Vote 2011: Sleep deprived

I hadn't realised how tired I was when I sat down to blog last night, shortly after 2 I fell asleep. I woke up this morning to see the results.

It looks like the SNP have been the most successful so far, possibly winning a majority in Scotland. If that is the case it will be the first time since devolution that the Scottish Parliament has had a majority Government. What a woeful performance by Labour in their back yard. Alec Salmond is a canny campaigner and it looks like they will finally have to put forward the independence referendum - which they will lose.

In Wales, Labour have done well. If they hadn't done well there, I think the knives would have been out for Ed Miliband, so it's a bit of a save but the English local elections haven't looked quite so good for Labour. OK, they have made advances but it is looking around the 1000 level which, in my mind, is making up for losses for their disastrous 2007. They haven't been taking seats off the Tories, which they would need to look to form a Government. They have benefitted from the LibDem collapse.

The Tories have kept their seats and gained a few councils making a very good night for them as opposed to the predicted 1000 seat loss. For the LibDems it has been disastrous. They have lost roughly half their councillors and councils. It makes Nick Clegg's position questionable, and there have been calls for his head. It would be a shame if that is how his courage to go into the coalition was rewarded. It looks like a lot of the LibDems prefer opposition to power.

Squiffy.

Election Live 2011

I wasn't going to do this, but a bit of bridge, a bit of alcohol and no work tomorrow makes me think I'll give it a go until I get knackered.

Here's the blog...

Squiffy.

Time to get rid of Cable

I used to like the man, the non politician politician, spoke some sense and was a little humorous.

Since entering the coalition, he's looked like a bulldog chewing a wasp. On several occasions he has shown scant regard for collective responsibility, has shown a chronic lack of judgement and exaggerated his own importance.

Today, he says that we should vote for AV on the basis that it keeps the Tories out. So much for the fairness that pro-AV activists claim. He says that the Tories have won elections without a majority mandate. Hello, have the Labour party done differently? Even the 1997 landslide was won by 43% just as the Tory victories of the 80s.

If he really wants to make sure governments have over 50%, maybe he should suggest winding up the Liberal Democrats and throwing his lot in with Labour.

After all what are the LibDems for? Are they on the left or right? What is their unique selling point? I can't think of one. Their only purpose seems to be denying other parties a majority by espousing popular policies to voters then ditching them as soon as is expedient.

The man has become a joke, he doesn't seem to have any principles otherwise he'd resign. So if he isn't going to go on his own then give him a push.

Squiffy.

F1 2011: I'm liking it

This morning's race in China was one of the best dry weather races I have ever seen. There were many passes, action up and down the order, and stints where certain cars were faster than others only for the position to be reversed later.

The new rules seem to be working, but Pirelli has to be congratulated on making tyres which degrade quickly.

Lewis Hamilton drove superbly, and I think this was his best race and shows a new maturity. Unfortunately, Jenson Button made a silly mistake, pitting in the Red Bull box! Mark Webber drove very well, as did Felipe Massa.

So, 2011 is looking to be an excellent year.

Squiffy.

F1 2011: Part 2

Here's part two of my round-up of the teams.

Williams - It looks like this team is finally on the up. And not before time. Last year they seemed to find some aerodynamic stability which had been sorely lacking for several years. They now have a pretty radical car with a vastly undercut tail fin, and it is looking good. I think Rubens Barrichello will perform well as he is experienced and is really driving the car forward. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about Pastor Maldonaldo to make a judgement but he did very well in GP2 so should shine, but I think that Nico Hulkenberg was harshly treated (even if it was for understandable reasons).

Force India - A great car two years ago, became a marginally good car a year ago. I'm hoping the car is better this year, as this small team has a good aerodynamic team and a great engine in the Mercedes. I'd like to see Brit Paul di Resta do well in the new car, and show talented but patchy Adrian Sutil a clean pair of heels. For Sutil, it's this year or never for him to prove he has what it takes to move forward.

Toro Rosso - It is the second year of Toro Rosso's own car, and I hope they can come up with a good design. For the two drivers it is make or break for both, Sebastien Buemi has a lot to prove - he's been generally faster than his team mate but at the end of last year Alguersuari was faster. If this turns into a trend it will be the end of Buemi. If Alguersuari fails to beat Buemi then it is probably game over.

Sauber - Last years car wasn't great, and it looks like Sauber have reverted to pre-BMW years of showing well in pre-season testing but then failing to develop and back it up. Hopefully for them it will be better this year, and for Kamui Kobayashi he needs a good car to allow him to pull off the great overtaking moves which he has become known. He really is looking like the best Japanese driver so far, very exciting. Again, I'm not sure of Sergio Perez, good in GP2 he has a lot to prove.

Lotus - I like this plucky team, it has Mike Gascoyne as technical director whom I respect greatly. I'm really hoping this team can get close to the midfield, as they deserve it and give the Lotus name a good name - whilst they still have it. I'd like to see Heikki Kovalainen do well as I think he is underrated, but maybe it's time for Trulli to hang up his helmet as he's not really going anywhere.

Virgin - After last years embarrassing problem of a car with a too small fuel tank, the team need to really show something this year. I'm not convinced that the all CFD route is proving to be brilliant successful though. Maybe it helps make a slow car, but not much better. I think Timo Glock's talent is wasted here, and I'm not too sure about Jerome D'Ambrosio.

HRT - Another year and another dodgy start to the season. No wheels have turned, will they ever?

Squiffy.

F1 2011: It's nearly here

It should have been two weeks ago but the start of the season will be this weekend instead. It's been an incredibly long winter but it only adds to the excitement.

The season holds several technical changes which could add to the spice. Firstly, KERS is back. It was a shame that it went away, green technology is future and it is only a good thing. Although most teams will have it and so there won't be too much advantage to gain unless they malfunction. It should favour McLaren and Mercedes who had the best systems in 2009.

Secondly, there are movable rear wings which mean that at certain points on the track a car which is following closely (1 second) behind another will be able open a slot between two planes on the rear wing. This will reduce drag and add to the speed of the following car. Some have said that this means overtaking will be easy, I don't think so. Mainly because it is very difficult to get to a gap of 1 second.

Finally, and most significantly there is a new tyre supplier. Out go Bridgestone, in come Pirelli. Although tyres may seem a bit boring, they are absolutely key as they are the only point where the car touches the car - everything the driver and car does is through this rubber. All cars will have Pirellis with the choice between two compounds, like last year.

The guys at Pirelli signed the deal just after last year's Canadian GP. For those with flaky memories, tyre usage was key as the tyres were getting worn very quickly. It was a very exciting race and Pirelli took it as the blueprint for this year's tyres. So, expect drivers complaining about tyres going off, but with added tyres changes there may be more excitement. It looks like the tyres wear down in a physical way more than a chemical way, i.e. by using more rubber than by losing stickiness - which may not help Jenson Button as much as thought. There are also issues with the tyres giving off too many 'marbles', little bits of rubber which fly off the tyres and stay off line. This may not help the overall aim of increasing overtaking as it gets very slippery off-line.

Here's a quick round of how the teams stand.

Red Bull - Looking very good after testing. The car has been built upon last year's RB6, it is evolution rather than revolution. The main advantage seems to be that it has kept its speed but gained reliability - which hampered it in the early parts of last year. I expect Sebastien Vettel to retain his speed but lose a bit of his impetuousity, it may be tougher for Mark Webber. Seb and Red Bull are my tips for champions this year.

Ferrari - Again, they look fast and reliable and may be at the speed of Red Bull. I expect Fernando Alonso to be really challenging the Red Bull duo this year, and with a few less mistakes will be well placed if the RB duo take points off each other. Felipe Massa doesn't seem to have regained the speed to put him on a par with Alonso, and so it is make or break for him.

McLaren - The car is revolutionary, and so far quite unreliable. It has also not been as fast as hoped for. Both drivers have complained of a lack of grip, and it would be understandable if they had long faces. It looks like problems with the blown exhaust, and they are turning up to Australia with a simpler system. They want to surprise us, for their sakes lets hope they can because it took them a while last year to get new parts working. I expect Lewis Hamilton to make the best of it again with Jenson Button being creative in unusual circumstances.

Mercedes - Similarly to McLaren, it was looking bad for Mercedes a little while ago. The car seemed slow, but Ross Brawn said that some new parts would largely improve matters. Entering the final test, the new parts transformed the car to being fastest - whether that is accurate we shall see. If it works, expect to see Michael Schumacher back at the sharp end, otherwise I think he will walk away. It will be fascinating to see the rivalry between him and Nico Rosberg.

Renault - It looks like Renault are back in the game, they have a radical new exhaust which blows forward from the sidepods and channels extra air below the car to the diffuser. In testing the car looked fast and in Robert Kubica's hand's it could have won a few races. Now that Kubica is sadly in hospital, the burden falls on Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov. Nick can be occasionally quick and this is his last chance to prove himself. Petrov was a bit accident prone at the start of last year but got better, if he can sustain that level of improvement then it may be good for him. Otherwise it could be Nelson Piquet...

Other teams to follow.

Squiffy.

The Budget 2011 Verdict

Mildly positive. There wasn't much change in this budget, after all most of the work had been done last year. The fuel cut was a nice touch, especially seeing as the Government does not have to fund it.

I particularly like the move to merge Income Tax and NI, after all NI is just Income Tax by another name and people forget about it when they make their calculations. It will also make it more transparent.

The increase in the personal tax threshold was also to be welcomed along with the signal that the 50% income tax rate is definitely temporary.

So, a warm welcome to the budget but nothing to blow your socks off!

Squiffy.

Well done Mr Cameron

Last night the UN voted for action against Gadaffi. After several weeks of fannying about, the international community got its act together.

This is mainly due to the Prime Minister's tenacity. Where others were saying that he was out of his depth three weeks ago, when he proposed a no fly zone, it is now obvious that he was right. A lot of credit is deserved.

President Obama has been found wanting. Nervous, cautious and wushu washy are words I could use. Maybe after Iraq that is understandable, but surely everyone can see that Libya is no Iraq.

He finally came on board last night. The BBC was still able to show some Obama love - or should I say bias - when they reported that Obama's cautiousness actually enabled other countries to vote for the no fly zone. That's quite some spin!

Anyway, good work PM. Now let's hope Gadaffi is ousted quickly.

Squiffy.

Don't listen to a lot of the arguments on AV: They're bogus

Anyone who reads or listens to our politicians will probably get a whole load of bogus arguments by both pro and anti lobbies shoved down their throats. Let's debunk some of the arguments.

From the Pro-AV camp, here's some of the arguments:

1. It will lead to a more proportional electoral result. Not necessarily, it will lead to different results in some constituencies, but not necessarily more proportional. Some voting models have shown that AV can lead to a less proportional House of Commons.
2. It will clean up politics. Not at all. If anybody can tell me why it will clean up politics then let me know how. I can't see why AV would change an MPs behaviour, if they have to have over 50% of the vote, why would they be any less arrogant?
3. All votes have the same weight. No, if you're not in a marginal constituency then the situation is the same as now. With AV, some people's second choices are counted where other's aren't.

From the Anti-AV lobby, here's the opposing arguments:

1. It will lead to more coalition politics. Not necessarily, if it is unproven that AV leads to more proportional results then it is unlikely to lead to more coalition Governments.
2. AV is complex. Not really, rather than putting an X in a box it's as simple as rating your preferences. You'd have to be a bit of a dunce not to be able to do it.

So what are the facts. Yes, M.P.s will have to have at least 50% of their electorate to vote in some way for them. Yes, AV will be slightly more costly and will delay election results a bit. Yes, First-Past-The-Post is used more widely than AV around the world. No, AV will not get rid of wasted votes.

So what are the arguments which sway me? Under AV, you basically elect the person who is least unliked, whereas under FPTP you elect the person most liked. That's reasonably simple to me, one is a positive vote and one is a negative vote.

As a second reason to not like AV, if it was a tight race between Labour and the Tories to reach the magic 50% and the first person to be knocked out was the BNP candidate, it could be the BNP voter's second preferences which push the top candidate over the finishing line. That makes me decidedly queasy, and I'd rather those voters didn't have a second say over who wins.

Squiffy.

Labour have a new idea

Today the Labour party had a new idea, raise some money from taxing bankers. An easy target, but popular one I'm sure. It will help with the deficit.

No hang on, they don't want to reduce the deficit with the new tax, no they want to spend it on homes and schemes which will probably achieve nothing. So, it's the same plan as before.

Will they ever learn. No. They only want to spend.

Squiffy.

The latest growth figures are disappointing

But I think a blip rather than a trend. Snow and negative sentiment about Vat rises probably have more effect than we realise.

I haven't noticed that huge a jump in prices this year, maybe prices were already higher at the end of last year - which would mean that the increase in VAT would have less impact on this quarter.

I know that I am predisposed towards believing that the coalition has got the economy right, but I think that growth will rebound in the next quarter figures. I also, by the way, believe that these figures will be revised upwards.

So cheer up, it will get better.

Squiffy.

Resignation, resignation everywhere

What a couple of days. Yesterday it was Alan Johnson, today it's Andy Coulson. It seems to me that both were pre-emptive before news leaked. Maybe there is some new information coming out which would have forced Andy Coulson's hand? I guess we'll find out shortly. It is true to say that his position had become a distraction, similar to Lord Ashcroft's.

If the papers are to be believed Alan Johnson's departure was triggered by his wife having an affair with a protection officer. Gives a new meaning to "better hope she used protection", but enough smut. It sounds like Mr Johnson has been going through a tough time lately, and with the added focus on his position of Shadow Chancellor, it would have been extremely difficult to keep his mind on the job.

When he was appointed, I, like many people, was surprised. With Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper both having had jobs in the Treasury they seemed like the more obvious choices as Shadow Chancellor. Maybe Ed Balls' outspoken criticism of Alistair Darling's deficit reduction plan or maybe the rivalry with Ed Miliband from their time together as Gordon Brown underlings, counted against him. Maybe Yvette Cooper's popularity in the Shadow Cabinet elections counted against her. Hence why Ed Miliband chose to put Ed Balls at the Home Office as an attack dog so that he could have his own economic policy, and Yvette Cooper in the invisible role of Shadow Foreign Secretary so that she doesn't steal the limelight.

Now that has been undone. Yvette moves to the Home Office to hound Teresa May, that should be fun. More fun will be the exchanges between George Osborne and Ed Balls. As in Hart to Hart, "when those two get together, it could be murder".

Maybe Labour is the winner, but it looks like Ed Miliband is the loser. His plan has come unstuck. The two people at the Treasury when the banks and spending let rip, are at the head of the Labour party as 'deficit deniers', and the Tories will stick that label on them ad nauseam. Maybe George Osborne is a little more worried now, but he's faced Gordon Brown before, and now he has his mini-me.

Should be fun.

Squiffy.

PMQs A New Year Comeback

It was the first PMQs of 2011 and can be decisively given to David Cameron. He was truly on top of his game, and batted Ed Miliband around the House.

Although Ed Miliband did have a point about their one-off bank bonus tax bringing in more money than a signle year of the coalition's bank levy he was completely outshone by the overall figures which David Cameron was able to announce. The killer line was "The Shadow Chancellor can't count and the Labour Leader doesn't count."

He also had a great line when asked about U-turns by the SNP's Angus Robertson. The PM came back with the point that the SNP had U-turned on their Scottish Independence bill.

Cameron: 9, Miliband 4

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband's Myth about a Myth

This morning I read in The Times that Ed Miliband is angry that the coalition is perpetuating the 'myth' that the deficit is the fault of the previous Labour Government, whereas, he says, it was the fault of the recession.

It's pure and simple really.

The effects of the previous Government's spending is what can be seen in the structural deficit (this is the amount that the Governments spend minus its income if there were not a recession). Normally the structural deficit would not be entirely down to the Government, but the last Government had a good spell early on and actually ran a surplus for some years, it then went on a spending splurge and the deficit got wider and wider, even during a period of growth.

There is of course an amount of the deficit because of the recession, this is the non-structural part, but this can be reduced when the country returns to growth due to the 'automatic stabilisers'. In recession, tax receipts are down and unemployment benefits go up, in growth these trends reverse.

So, to judge Ed Miliband's 'myth' let's look at the total numbers. The total budget deficit for this year was due to be £155 Bn, the structural deficit is predicted (by the IFS) to be around £90 Bn of that, i.e. 58%. I believe that the structural deficit reduction plan is nearer £100 Bn or 65%.

Either way, the majority of the deficit is structural and therefore a fault of the previous Government. So, Ed Miliband's 'myth' is a myth itself.

He also said, in the article, that he is not opposing every cut. Which cuts does he support then? No answer.

He opposes the VAT rise, which brings in £13 Bn per year, but what is his alternative? The employer NI rise, that the new Government stopped, only brings in £3 Bn, and there's some loose talk about bank bonuses but nothing tangible. Also, given that Labour want to put the deficit reduction burden further onto taxes (from 80:20 cuts to taxes to 60:40) where are all the extra taxes coming from? There came no answer.

Verdict. Ed Miliband must do better.

Squiffy.

2011 Predictions

Having made a fool of myself with the 2010 predictions, it could be tempting to get out of the prediction business altogether but it's a little bit of fun so why not.

Here's my predictions for the year ahead:

1. David Laws will make an early return to Government, in a reshuffle sometime in January or February.
2. The AV referendum will be narrowly lost, but on a low turnout.
3. Vince Cable will walk out of the Government.
4. Ed Miliband will have a poor year despite the polls and there will be a whispering campaign around to bring his brother back.
5. Diane Abbott will walk out of her shadow portfolio.
6. The coordinated strikes threatened for Easter will be a damp squib compared to the jollity of the Royal Wedding.
7. Sebastien Vettel will be F1 World Champion again, just beating Lewis Hamilton.
8. Michael Schumacher will walk away from F1 mid-way through the year.
9. CPI Inflation will hit 4.0%, but we will have annual growth of 1.8%.
10. The parties will end the year on: 39% Tories, 42% Labour, 12% LibDem.

Squiffy.

The 2010 predictions verdict: Rubbish

Every year I make some predictions for the year ahead, and then I have to face the consequences. Well it's clear that I was absolutely rubbish this year. Let's mark them:

1. The Tories will win the election with a majority of around 80. Many people think it will be tighter than that, but I think the polls overstate the Labour position. 0 points
2. The election shares will be Tories 43%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 24%. 0 points
3. Gordon Brown will be succeeded by Harriet Harman. (They should chose Andy Burnham) 0 points
4. Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 World Championship. 0 points
5. Michael Schumacher will win 3 races this year. 0 points
6. David Davis and Malcolm Rifkind will be in the Cabinet. 0 points
7. The country will have recovered last quarter but will enter it again this quarter. It will re-emerge in the 3rd quarter. 0 points
8. CPI Inflation will hit 3.5% by years end. Close, 1/2 point
9. Lord Mandelson will renounce his peerage in an attempt to rejoin the commons. 0 points
10. The first Cabinet Minister to resign will be Alan Duncan. 0 points

So, basically, an absolute shower. Half a point out of 10, a very bad showing. In politics, it was much closer than I thought and the coalition has really changed the political landscape. In Formula 1 we had a great year, one of the best and I hope 2011 will be even better.

Squiffy.