Thursday, 27 June 2013

Lies, Damned lies, and statistical revisions

As I predicted in an earlier post, the double dip recession has now vanished. The revisions have removed them from history. At the same time, and even worse for Labour, the first recession has been revised to be even worse. So the recovery is harder to take hold.

Earlier in the week we heard that the deficit had slightly increased for 2012/13, and Labour were all over it. But remember revisions! The 2011/12 deficit was revised down more than the 2012/13 deficit and so it appeared to increase, but just like 2011/12 was revised down this year so can 2012/13 next year keeping the downward trend. The good news is that the deficit is being revised down rather than up.

Things seem to be improving at the moment, and I think it will continue. I expect growth to be nearer 1.5% this year, and the deficit to reduce further than official expectations. I really hope so!


1 comment:

Squiffy said...
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