Moving fast: A new way forward. PM for PM

It looks like Theresa May's Brexit deal is already dead.

I thought it may be the best way forward but now that more amendments have been added there's no way the EU will accept it without modification. It cannot now stand. Remainers and Leavers are both angry. There can now only be one way forward (for now at least).

Theresa May must be deposed. The time has come for Boris Johnson to do his duty, find his inner Geoffrey How and create a resignation speech that changes the leadership. I believe he is going to make the resignation speech today. He needs to inspire and call for a change of leadership. He needs to go as far as possible to make members of the Government think there can be a better way - without him as Prime Minister.

There needs to be a vote of confidence with certainty that Theresa May will lose and that there is an attractive, viable alternative. Which means someone from the cabinet will have to stand down at that vote of confidence in order to provide an alternative.

There's several available, but right now I have Penny Mordaunt in my mind. Someone who talks human but is a Brexiteer.

If this can be put forward to the party after a barnstorming speech by her which also inspires MPs, the membership will go for it - like they did with David Cameron.

She can then put in place the David Davis White Paper being tough with the EU.

She needs to go to the wire with the EU.

It then needs to be put to the House Of Commons with the stark choice of that plan or no plan. If it fails, the new PM should call an election on the single issue of the deal. As someone new, fresh and human talking to the people she will have a good chance of winning the Brexit votes and Tory votes.

The manifesto will be sacrosanct and MPs will be expected to stick to it or be de-selected in favour of a pro-deal Tory.

At the moment Tories are scared of a general election, for the sole reason that Theresa May is PM. Take her away and put someone more empathetic in her place with a firm plan and Jeremy Corbyn becomes eminently beatable.

At the moment I cannot see another way.

Squiffy.

Brexit deal thoughts

I've had a little time to mull over the Chequers Brexit deal. As a Brexiteer, I think the deal is pretty poor. It' s complex, bureaucratic and does not deliver Brexit. I can fully understand why David Davis resigned. I understand why many people are unhappy with it. I'm unhappy with it. Lots of Tory members are unhappy with it.

So should Theresa May be toppled? Should the deal be scrapped. For me it's a close call.

But...

I've come down on the side of keeping the PM and keeping the deal. Why, when it's crappy? Simple, maths.

I would like there to be a harder Brexit, but there is no way it can get through the House of Commons. This softer Brexit has a slim chance. If the EU can broadly agree with the plan then I think there would be immense pressure on MPs to agree it. If the EU cannot agree, and demands more concessions, then all bets are off. With Tory Eurosceptics likely to vote against it would be dependent on Labour votes - and some of the Labour MPs are pragmatic enough to realise that this may be the best they get.

Let's look to the future, when this deal has been agreed. The Tory party will continue it's long walk to a more Eurosceptic future. After this betrayal, I doubt a non-Eurosceptic Tory will be elected leader by the membership. Once, we're out of the EU future Tory Prime Ministers will be able to re-negotiate the deal and head towards a more independent Britain.

It is depressing that the hope of Brexit has not been realised at this stage and it will take much longer to achieve, but we are where we are, and the PM has badly handled the negotiations and so there is so little time to get an agreement.

My betting, though, is that we will either stay in the EU and then there will be a Tory revolution with a very Eurosceptic leader, or a  nine month extension to the Brexit timetable so that we leave at the end of 2019. If that happens then I expect the PM to be ousted.


Squiffy.