Brexit deal thoughts

I've had a little time to mull over the Chequers Brexit deal. As a Brexiteer, I think the deal is pretty poor. It' s complex, bureaucratic and does not deliver Brexit. I can fully understand why David Davis resigned. I understand why many people are unhappy with it. I'm unhappy with it. Lots of Tory members are unhappy with it.

So should Theresa May be toppled? Should the deal be scrapped. For me it's a close call.

But...

I've come down on the side of keeping the PM and keeping the deal. Why, when it's crappy? Simple, maths.

I would like there to be a harder Brexit, but there is no way it can get through the House of Commons. This softer Brexit has a slim chance. If the EU can broadly agree with the plan then I think there would be immense pressure on MPs to agree it. If the EU cannot agree, and demands more concessions, then all bets are off. With Tory Eurosceptics likely to vote against it would be dependent on Labour votes - and some of the Labour MPs are pragmatic enough to realise that this may be the best they get.

Let's look to the future, when this deal has been agreed. The Tory party will continue it's long walk to a more Eurosceptic future. After this betrayal, I doubt a non-Eurosceptic Tory will be elected leader by the membership. Once, we're out of the EU future Tory Prime Ministers will be able to re-negotiate the deal and head towards a more independent Britain.

It is depressing that the hope of Brexit has not been realised at this stage and it will take much longer to achieve, but we are where we are, and the PM has badly handled the negotiations and so there is so little time to get an agreement.

My betting, though, is that we will either stay in the EU and then there will be a Tory revolution with a very Eurosceptic leader, or a  nine month extension to the Brexit timetable so that we leave at the end of 2019. If that happens then I expect the PM to be ousted.


Squiffy.