Poor Jackie Smith. As I've said before, I quite like her (don't know why), but the expenses/porn (cash for porn, porngate?) row has shown that she cannot really run her own household properly (what was she doing signing off expenses for Raw Meat 3? unless it was really that good!) - so what can we expect from the Home Office?
It all goes to show that the MPs should have taken my advice last year and changed their expenses rules. Up their pay with a non-London weighting (something like £80K) and provide resources for constituency office staff from a House of Commons pool. Finally, banish allowances, expenses, second homes, the lot.
Simple, quite like some of our MPs.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 31 March 2009
Wasn't it wonderful
Now that there's been time for it to sink in, wasn't it wonderful to see Jenson Button on the top step of the podium on Sunday? It's been a hard slog for him and he deserves it, this time the win was with a car that deserved it rather than luckily when everyone else fell off the track.
It's great that Brawn GP have produced a great car too, and Ross Brawn was close to tears afterwards. Honda management must be having kamikaze thoughts right now. I really enjoyed seeing Williams right up there again, they should be near the front.
Overall, the race was good and I think the cars seemed to be able to genuinely stay closer to each other. There were definately more slipstreaming overtaking moves in this race, so it's thumbs up so far on the new rules.
Looks like a great 2009 in F1 lies ahead of us. If the Barcelona GP is anything other than a bore-fest, we'll know for sure.
Squiffy.
It's great that Brawn GP have produced a great car too, and Ross Brawn was close to tears afterwards. Honda management must be having kamikaze thoughts right now. I really enjoyed seeing Williams right up there again, they should be near the front.
Overall, the race was good and I think the cars seemed to be able to genuinely stay closer to each other. There were definately more slipstreaming overtaking moves in this race, so it's thumbs up so far on the new rules.
Looks like a great 2009 in F1 lies ahead of us. If the Barcelona GP is anything other than a bore-fest, we'll know for sure.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 25 March 2009
The gall of the man
I've just heard Gordon Brown say what a mistake it was for RBS to take over ABN Amro, saying that it cost £80 billion, and now RBS is worth £10 billion. He says that obviously due diligence wasn't done properly.
For RBS read LLoyds, for ABN Amro read HBOS and the situation is the same. Who was it who pushed through this merger? Gordon Brown, and the complaints have been about a lack of due diligence. The man has no shame.
Squiffy.
For RBS read LLoyds, for ABN Amro read HBOS and the situation is the same. Who was it who pushed through this merger? Gordon Brown, and the complaints have been about a lack of due diligence. The man has no shame.
Squiffy.
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
Formula 1 Shakedown 2
As promised, a preview of the remaining 5 teams follows.
Toro Rosso
This team was the surprise of the 2008 season, managing to pull out the surprise win at Monza. It showed that small teams can still make it in F1, although this is disguising the fact that the car was largely the same as the Red Bull. The RB5 (on which the STR4 is based) is looking better than its predecessor (more on that later). The team will be using the Ferrari engine again this year, which gave it the edge of the senior team last year, let's see if the Renault engine falls behind again this year.
Again it's a time of Seb's. Out goes the wunderkind Sebastien Vettel, in comes the rookie Sebastien Buemi. It will be tough for Buemi as he has big shoes to fill, and as the only rookie the pressure will really be on. For his French counterpart, Sebastian Bourdais it will also be a difficult year. This year he has to put the difficulties behind him,take over as the number 1 and show what he's made of. Soon, the IndyCar championships will be a memory if he can't deliver this year.
Red Bull
Overshadowed by its junior team last year, this year the team has to deliver. So far the Adrian Newey effect has not paid off, but this year could be different. He has been usually very good at interpretating new rules and creating a fantastic car, such as the McLaren MP/4-13 in 1998. It's only when the rules are stable that he can push the envelope too far and go down a wrong route. The car this year does look quite different to the others and may be about to make a splash. Can Newey reclaim his mantle as designer extraordinaire? Not sure, the testing times look like it could get to the top of the midfield.
This year, Sebastien Vettel can build upon his reputation from last year. If he can regularly get the car on the podium I think he will cement his status as future world champion. It all depends on the man on the other side of the garage. If Mark Webber blows Vettel away as he has to all other team mates, then Webber will show that he should have been in a top team and Vettel's status will be diminished. If the opposite happens it could be the end of Webber's dreams of a top team and foreshorten his career. 2009 is make or break for Mark Webber.
Williams
It's been a tough few years for my favourite team. Times are still tough as their primary backers have suffered through the credit crunch. If there is a year for this team to find it's feet again it's 2009, they focused on the FW31 halfway through the 2008 season. They also may have made the right choice to use a flywheel version of KERS, it's too early to say yet. The testing pace has been great at times, showing that maybe it is time for a Williams resurgence.
For Nico Rosberg this may be his last year in Williams. If the Williams team can provide him with a good motor then we may be able to get a measure of the man, otherwise it will be another wasted year. There is no way that Rosberg can afford to stay if the car is bad, and he will probably jump to McLaren.
Kazuki Nakajima has shown a turn of speed and is regularly able to get the car home. He is regularly a couple of tenths behind his team-mate and he must get closer this year if he is to progress.
Force India
This team has shown some promise in testing, it now has the use of McLaren engines and gearbox, which will aid costs and reliability. If this team can occasionally find itself ahead of other teams then it will have done a great job.
It's amazing that Giancarlo Fisichella is still on the grid. He shows well when at the back of the grid, but falls asleep in races when he's in a top team. He's had his chance and been found wanting. This should surely be his last year.
Adrian Sutil was unlucky last year to lose out on points at Monaco, and at times as shown that he is the real deal. But at other times he's been ordinary, this year he really needs to pull out the stops.
Brawn GP
This could be the surprise of the season. After coming close to a complete no show, the team managed to get several testing sessions under their belt before arriving in Melbourne. And wow! From nowhere, the cars seemed to be the fastest. Whether this will show up in a Grand Prix, we'll have to find out in a few days time. Jenson Button thinks it's the fastest car he's driven in quite a few years, and it appears that Ross Brawn's technical and organisation genius has been brought to bear just at the right time. This could cause the biggest upset in quite a few years!
The cars look a bit bare, as they don't have the necessary sponsorship, but if the car proves to be fast expect all the real estate to be painted shortly.
For Jenson Button, it may be that he has made a very shrewd move by placing his career on the line with this team. If the car is fast, this may be his best chance to clink a world championship or at least to show that he's still a force to be reckoned with. The new cars rip the rear tyres up a bit, but Jenson's smooth driving style should be an advantage on the long runs.
It's understandable that Ross Brawn went with Rubens Barichello rather than a young gun for this year, he needs to lay some solid foundations for the future and he knows Rubens well. Hopefully both drivers will enjoy 2009 after two lousy years. Good luck to them.
Squiffy.
Toro Rosso
This team was the surprise of the 2008 season, managing to pull out the surprise win at Monza. It showed that small teams can still make it in F1, although this is disguising the fact that the car was largely the same as the Red Bull. The RB5 (on which the STR4 is based) is looking better than its predecessor (more on that later). The team will be using the Ferrari engine again this year, which gave it the edge of the senior team last year, let's see if the Renault engine falls behind again this year.
Again it's a time of Seb's. Out goes the wunderkind Sebastien Vettel, in comes the rookie Sebastien Buemi. It will be tough for Buemi as he has big shoes to fill, and as the only rookie the pressure will really be on. For his French counterpart, Sebastian Bourdais it will also be a difficult year. This year he has to put the difficulties behind him,take over as the number 1 and show what he's made of. Soon, the IndyCar championships will be a memory if he can't deliver this year.
Red Bull
Overshadowed by its junior team last year, this year the team has to deliver. So far the Adrian Newey effect has not paid off, but this year could be different. He has been usually very good at interpretating new rules and creating a fantastic car, such as the McLaren MP/4-13 in 1998. It's only when the rules are stable that he can push the envelope too far and go down a wrong route. The car this year does look quite different to the others and may be about to make a splash. Can Newey reclaim his mantle as designer extraordinaire? Not sure, the testing times look like it could get to the top of the midfield.
This year, Sebastien Vettel can build upon his reputation from last year. If he can regularly get the car on the podium I think he will cement his status as future world champion. It all depends on the man on the other side of the garage. If Mark Webber blows Vettel away as he has to all other team mates, then Webber will show that he should have been in a top team and Vettel's status will be diminished. If the opposite happens it could be the end of Webber's dreams of a top team and foreshorten his career. 2009 is make or break for Mark Webber.
Williams
It's been a tough few years for my favourite team. Times are still tough as their primary backers have suffered through the credit crunch. If there is a year for this team to find it's feet again it's 2009, they focused on the FW31 halfway through the 2008 season. They also may have made the right choice to use a flywheel version of KERS, it's too early to say yet. The testing pace has been great at times, showing that maybe it is time for a Williams resurgence.
For Nico Rosberg this may be his last year in Williams. If the Williams team can provide him with a good motor then we may be able to get a measure of the man, otherwise it will be another wasted year. There is no way that Rosberg can afford to stay if the car is bad, and he will probably jump to McLaren.
Kazuki Nakajima has shown a turn of speed and is regularly able to get the car home. He is regularly a couple of tenths behind his team-mate and he must get closer this year if he is to progress.
Force India
This team has shown some promise in testing, it now has the use of McLaren engines and gearbox, which will aid costs and reliability. If this team can occasionally find itself ahead of other teams then it will have done a great job.
It's amazing that Giancarlo Fisichella is still on the grid. He shows well when at the back of the grid, but falls asleep in races when he's in a top team. He's had his chance and been found wanting. This should surely be his last year.
Adrian Sutil was unlucky last year to lose out on points at Monaco, and at times as shown that he is the real deal. But at other times he's been ordinary, this year he really needs to pull out the stops.
Brawn GP
This could be the surprise of the season. After coming close to a complete no show, the team managed to get several testing sessions under their belt before arriving in Melbourne. And wow! From nowhere, the cars seemed to be the fastest. Whether this will show up in a Grand Prix, we'll have to find out in a few days time. Jenson Button thinks it's the fastest car he's driven in quite a few years, and it appears that Ross Brawn's technical and organisation genius has been brought to bear just at the right time. This could cause the biggest upset in quite a few years!
The cars look a bit bare, as they don't have the necessary sponsorship, but if the car proves to be fast expect all the real estate to be painted shortly.
For Jenson Button, it may be that he has made a very shrewd move by placing his career on the line with this team. If the car is fast, this may be his best chance to clink a world championship or at least to show that he's still a force to be reckoned with. The new cars rip the rear tyres up a bit, but Jenson's smooth driving style should be an advantage on the long runs.
It's understandable that Ross Brawn went with Rubens Barichello rather than a young gun for this year, he needs to lay some solid foundations for the future and he knows Rubens well. Hopefully both drivers will enjoy 2009 after two lousy years. Good luck to them.
Squiffy.
Formula 1 Shakedown Part 1
Similarly to last year, I thought I'd give my thoughts on the forthcoming season with a summary of what the teams look like going into this weekend's Melbourne Grand Prix.
Ferrari
The Ferrari team is looking good going into the season. The car is, again, looking like one of the fastest on the grid, although there are some worries about the reliability of the F60, especially with Ferrari's KERS device.
It looks like Felipe Massa will have a fight on his hands this year as the new car seems to be more to Kimi Raikkonen's handling. This will be partly due to the re-introduction of slick tyres, which will enable Kimi to use his oversteer style more readily. It will be great to see if Kimi can get back to his best, and take the fight to Felipe Massa. Massa should still be on top form although he also didn't cope well with the initial changes last year, but came back after two races to launch his challenge.
McLaren
When the new McLaren MP/4-24 was launched, it looked like the best looking car of the lot. It takes time to get used to the high rear wings and snow plough front wings, but McLaren looked to have produced an elegant solution. In testing however, McLaren stayed with the 2008 rear wing for too long and were struck by an absence of downforce when the 2009 rear wing was attached.
Either McLaren are sandbagging, or they really have a problem. If they do have a problem, don't expect to see them on the podium in the first few races, but if any team can pull it around it's name is McLaren.
Lewis Hamilton looks relaxed going into the season, and with the monkey off his back maybe he will eliminate some of the errors that blighted his season last year. It's going to be a testing time for him and will show whether he is a great driver outside of the car - by that I mean whether he has the technological feedback to help fix a recalcitrant car.
Heikki Kovalainen has one more year at McLaren to show that he has what it takes. If he can take the fight to Hamilton then he should be safe, but otherwise this could be a make or break year for him.
BMW Sauber
The BMW Sauber team look very good going into the season. They've been working on the KERS device for probably longer than anyone else and it is shown in their reliable testing. The times have been fast showing that they are well prepared for 2009.
Robert Kubica is also looking in good form, he was the most consistent driver of 2008 and possibly could have been champion has BMW continued to pile their efforts into the 2008 car rather than the F1.09. One thing that counts against Kubica is his size and if they run the KERS device the car will have limited scope for ballast, making corrections to help balance the car more difficult. If BMW can get around these problems then it is conceivable to see the Pole win his first world championship.
Nick Heidfeld had a terrible 2008 and was unable to match his team-mate. This year he has to show more speed, otherwise it could be his last in F1. Fortunately, his size, will aid him in his battle with Kubica, as BMW may fit the KERS device to Heidfeld's car but not to Kubica's.
Renault
When the Renault was launched it looked awful. The nose is too square and flat, and they say that ugly cars don't win (although that's not really true). From first tests, the car looked to be about two seconds off the pace but in true Renault style, they appear to have made some great leaps during the off season. The team is great at discovering lost pace, just like they did last year. So maybe Renault will surprise us.
Fernando Alonso is probably the best overall driver in the world and shows that he still has the spark to win. The car this year must win if it is to keep him on board, otherwise he could be heading to Ferrari or BMW at the end of the year if circumstances allow.
Nelson Piquet Jr had a torrid time in 2008, making more rookie mistakes than anyone else. I half expected him to be dropped for 2009, but luckily for him he's managed to keep his drive. This year he must deliver and be closer to his illustrious team mate to keep him in F1 for 2010.
Toyota
The Toyota team have been a bit of a puzzle. They have some of the best resources available to them and huge expenditure but have rarely delivered. In many cases the cars they have produced have looked a couple of years behind the game. Not so this year, the car is looking much better and has followed many of the current concepts. It will not be racing with KERS for a while, but we don't know yet whether that is a benefit or hindrance. If the team does not deliver their first win this year, I expect Toyota will go the way of Honda and pull the plug.
Jarno Trulli is also a bit of a puzzle. He is supremely quick in qualifying and naturally talented but sometimes falls asleep during a race. This may be his last chance to win a second race in F1 and he has to grab it with both hands, otherwise it could be curtains for him.
Timo Glock was a bit of a revelation in 2008. His previous spell in F1 with Jordan was not a major success and Toyota managed to gamble on him this time last year. After a shaky start, though, he seemed to settle in to Toyota and started delivering some great results. Unfortunately he will be dogged by the last corner of Interlagos 2008, and the stupid suggestion that he gave the world championship to Lewis Hamilton. He was on dry tyres on a wet race track, still kept the car on the island, and managed to gain a place by staying out on dries. He drove well. This could be the year he excels in Toyota.
A review of the next five teams will follow shortly.
Squiffy.
Ferrari
The Ferrari team is looking good going into the season. The car is, again, looking like one of the fastest on the grid, although there are some worries about the reliability of the F60, especially with Ferrari's KERS device.
It looks like Felipe Massa will have a fight on his hands this year as the new car seems to be more to Kimi Raikkonen's handling. This will be partly due to the re-introduction of slick tyres, which will enable Kimi to use his oversteer style more readily. It will be great to see if Kimi can get back to his best, and take the fight to Felipe Massa. Massa should still be on top form although he also didn't cope well with the initial changes last year, but came back after two races to launch his challenge.
McLaren
When the new McLaren MP/4-24 was launched, it looked like the best looking car of the lot. It takes time to get used to the high rear wings and snow plough front wings, but McLaren looked to have produced an elegant solution. In testing however, McLaren stayed with the 2008 rear wing for too long and were struck by an absence of downforce when the 2009 rear wing was attached.
Either McLaren are sandbagging, or they really have a problem. If they do have a problem, don't expect to see them on the podium in the first few races, but if any team can pull it around it's name is McLaren.
Lewis Hamilton looks relaxed going into the season, and with the monkey off his back maybe he will eliminate some of the errors that blighted his season last year. It's going to be a testing time for him and will show whether he is a great driver outside of the car - by that I mean whether he has the technological feedback to help fix a recalcitrant car.
Heikki Kovalainen has one more year at McLaren to show that he has what it takes. If he can take the fight to Hamilton then he should be safe, but otherwise this could be a make or break year for him.
BMW Sauber
The BMW Sauber team look very good going into the season. They've been working on the KERS device for probably longer than anyone else and it is shown in their reliable testing. The times have been fast showing that they are well prepared for 2009.
Robert Kubica is also looking in good form, he was the most consistent driver of 2008 and possibly could have been champion has BMW continued to pile their efforts into the 2008 car rather than the F1.09. One thing that counts against Kubica is his size and if they run the KERS device the car will have limited scope for ballast, making corrections to help balance the car more difficult. If BMW can get around these problems then it is conceivable to see the Pole win his first world championship.
Nick Heidfeld had a terrible 2008 and was unable to match his team-mate. This year he has to show more speed, otherwise it could be his last in F1. Fortunately, his size, will aid him in his battle with Kubica, as BMW may fit the KERS device to Heidfeld's car but not to Kubica's.
Renault
When the Renault was launched it looked awful. The nose is too square and flat, and they say that ugly cars don't win (although that's not really true). From first tests, the car looked to be about two seconds off the pace but in true Renault style, they appear to have made some great leaps during the off season. The team is great at discovering lost pace, just like they did last year. So maybe Renault will surprise us.
Fernando Alonso is probably the best overall driver in the world and shows that he still has the spark to win. The car this year must win if it is to keep him on board, otherwise he could be heading to Ferrari or BMW at the end of the year if circumstances allow.
Nelson Piquet Jr had a torrid time in 2008, making more rookie mistakes than anyone else. I half expected him to be dropped for 2009, but luckily for him he's managed to keep his drive. This year he must deliver and be closer to his illustrious team mate to keep him in F1 for 2010.
Toyota
The Toyota team have been a bit of a puzzle. They have some of the best resources available to them and huge expenditure but have rarely delivered. In many cases the cars they have produced have looked a couple of years behind the game. Not so this year, the car is looking much better and has followed many of the current concepts. It will not be racing with KERS for a while, but we don't know yet whether that is a benefit or hindrance. If the team does not deliver their first win this year, I expect Toyota will go the way of Honda and pull the plug.
Jarno Trulli is also a bit of a puzzle. He is supremely quick in qualifying and naturally talented but sometimes falls asleep during a race. This may be his last chance to win a second race in F1 and he has to grab it with both hands, otherwise it could be curtains for him.
Timo Glock was a bit of a revelation in 2008. His previous spell in F1 with Jordan was not a major success and Toyota managed to gamble on him this time last year. After a shaky start, though, he seemed to settle in to Toyota and started delivering some great results. Unfortunately he will be dogged by the last corner of Interlagos 2008, and the stupid suggestion that he gave the world championship to Lewis Hamilton. He was on dry tyres on a wet race track, still kept the car on the island, and managed to gain a place by staying out on dries. He drove well. This could be the year he excels in Toyota.
A review of the next five teams will follow shortly.
Squiffy.
Are the inflation figures worrying?
Today's inflation figures are extremely worrying. The predicted fall by somewhere between 0.6% and 0.8% was exaggerated and the real fall was a mere 0.1%. With all the reductions in interest rates and home loans, that is not a great reduction. The CPI has actually gone up from 3.0% to 3.2%.
The recession should be having a large downward pressure on inflation, but it is not happening. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has cited the 28% devaluation of Sterling as a factor in the reduced effect of the recession on inflation. So are we in for a period of stagflation? Inflation with stagnation.
Stagflation would be the worst situation to find ourselves in. Unfortunately, our burgeoning debt & printing money policies will probably have a further depreciation on Sterling leading to continued high inflation. Stagnation seems to be the next stage in this economic cycle.
Squiffy.
The recession should be having a large downward pressure on inflation, but it is not happening. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has cited the 28% devaluation of Sterling as a factor in the reduced effect of the recession on inflation. So are we in for a period of stagflation? Inflation with stagnation.
Stagflation would be the worst situation to find ourselves in. Unfortunately, our burgeoning debt & printing money policies will probably have a further depreciation on Sterling leading to continued high inflation. Stagnation seems to be the next stage in this economic cycle.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 18 March 2009
The FIA has lost the plot
Yesterday's decisions by the World Motor Sport's Council were quite weird. Firstly, the decision to keep the points system but award the world championship to the driver with most wins is completely inconsistent.
I understand why they have decided to do it, they hope that drivers in with a shot of the world championship and winning races will go all out for the win. But how can it be sensible that driver A wins 5 races and crashes out of all other races through stupid mistakes beats driver B who wins 4 races and finishes 2nd in all 13 or 14 others? I know that example is a bit far fetched, but there will be uproar and the person who wins the world championship will not be deemed worthy.
In 2008 both Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton could have won the world championship, and Hamilton won under the points system and Massa would have won under the most wins system. But the point was that they both drove well at times, and made some silly mistakes at others. They both deserved the championship.
I think having a simple system of points along the lines of the FOTA suggestions with a greater differential for coming first would have been sufficient. Now we seriously can have two world champions a year! How bone headed.
The second decision is even more serious. To allow a voluntary cap of £30 million for the permission to have no technical restrictions is just plain barmy. The cap is very low, and most teams would have to make large redundancies. Not great in the current climate. And the drivers' salaries have to come from that £30 million too!
But what about the implications of no technical restrictions? We don't know all the details yet, but what can this mean? Can ground effects come back, can turbo engines? What has Max Mosley's driving force in the FIA been about? Safety. How can this ever square up with the lack of technical restrictions? It can't. For as long as I remember, the FIA and it's predecessor the FISA have been imposing restrictions to slow down cars for safety reasons, the teams naturally have gone to limits to recoup the speed. If those restrictions were lifted, all the old technology can come back and the cars could go 10 seconds a lap faster, containing drivers who drive without a salary (probably those traditionally at the back). Absolutely ridiculous. As Lynne Faulds-Wood used to say, it would be a grid of absolute death traps.
Of course, this is likely to be Max Mosley's usual tactic of going for something completely ridiculous in order to split the teams and then go for a compromise which is further than the teams ever wanted. I hope he doesn't succeed and the teams threaten to break-away from this annual madness.
Squiffy.
I understand why they have decided to do it, they hope that drivers in with a shot of the world championship and winning races will go all out for the win. But how can it be sensible that driver A wins 5 races and crashes out of all other races through stupid mistakes beats driver B who wins 4 races and finishes 2nd in all 13 or 14 others? I know that example is a bit far fetched, but there will be uproar and the person who wins the world championship will not be deemed worthy.
In 2008 both Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton could have won the world championship, and Hamilton won under the points system and Massa would have won under the most wins system. But the point was that they both drove well at times, and made some silly mistakes at others. They both deserved the championship.
I think having a simple system of points along the lines of the FOTA suggestions with a greater differential for coming first would have been sufficient. Now we seriously can have two world champions a year! How bone headed.
The second decision is even more serious. To allow a voluntary cap of £30 million for the permission to have no technical restrictions is just plain barmy. The cap is very low, and most teams would have to make large redundancies. Not great in the current climate. And the drivers' salaries have to come from that £30 million too!
But what about the implications of no technical restrictions? We don't know all the details yet, but what can this mean? Can ground effects come back, can turbo engines? What has Max Mosley's driving force in the FIA been about? Safety. How can this ever square up with the lack of technical restrictions? It can't. For as long as I remember, the FIA and it's predecessor the FISA have been imposing restrictions to slow down cars for safety reasons, the teams naturally have gone to limits to recoup the speed. If those restrictions were lifted, all the old technology can come back and the cars could go 10 seconds a lap faster, containing drivers who drive without a salary (probably those traditionally at the back). Absolutely ridiculous. As Lynne Faulds-Wood used to say, it would be a grid of absolute death traps.
Of course, this is likely to be Max Mosley's usual tactic of going for something completely ridiculous in order to split the teams and then go for a compromise which is further than the teams ever wanted. I hope he doesn't succeed and the teams threaten to break-away from this annual madness.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 11 March 2009
Could Mr Brown's temper be the last straw?
Yesterday the Prime Minister was interviewed on Radio 4's You and Yours programme. He came close to losing his temper with the interviewer and the phone-in callers.
We've heard of leaks from Downing Street of mobile phones being thrown across the room, sulks and shouting matches, though none of this can be substantiated. So how will this play out in a general election campaign?
Given that there are usually some difficult times for Premiers during the campaign, think of the Belgrano phone-in question to Mrs Thatcher in 1983 or the NHS clash with a mother of a bone marrow disease girl in the 2001 election campaign for Tony Blair. Never mind John Prescott's fisticuffs in the same campaign!
How will Mr Brown cope in similar circumstances? By then the recession may still be gripping the land, there will be high unemployment, maybe more bank bail-outs and the national debt will be astronomic. There may still be a push for the PMs acknowledgement that he got some things wrong.
Could it be that under the pressure of even more lack of sleep, travelling the land day and night, a stressful campaign, maybe a pseudo leadership campaign all under dire economic news, that Mr Brown verbally lashes out at a voter?
It cannot be discounted, for we have not seen the PM at the forefront of any election campaign, spearheading the BBC Question Time leader questions (I can't remember him ever being on QT) or confronted by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. We don't know how he'd react. If he does lose it, it will be game over.
Squiffy.
We've heard of leaks from Downing Street of mobile phones being thrown across the room, sulks and shouting matches, though none of this can be substantiated. So how will this play out in a general election campaign?
Given that there are usually some difficult times for Premiers during the campaign, think of the Belgrano phone-in question to Mrs Thatcher in 1983 or the NHS clash with a mother of a bone marrow disease girl in the 2001 election campaign for Tony Blair. Never mind John Prescott's fisticuffs in the same campaign!
How will Mr Brown cope in similar circumstances? By then the recession may still be gripping the land, there will be high unemployment, maybe more bank bail-outs and the national debt will be astronomic. There may still be a push for the PMs acknowledgement that he got some things wrong.
Could it be that under the pressure of even more lack of sleep, travelling the land day and night, a stressful campaign, maybe a pseudo leadership campaign all under dire economic news, that Mr Brown verbally lashes out at a voter?
It cannot be discounted, for we have not seen the PM at the forefront of any election campaign, spearheading the BBC Question Time leader questions (I can't remember him ever being on QT) or confronted by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. We don't know how he'd react. If he does lose it, it will be game over.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 4 March 2009
Sorry is such a small word
Gordon Brown came the closest he has ever done to accepting some responsibility for the economic crisis we find ourselves in, and apologising for it. But he still can't get over that final hurdle. He's still saying that this all started in America (although he won't say that to Congress!), and accepts no responsibility for allowing a mountain of debts to pervade our banking system. He even says that he's not sure that tougher regulation will have stopped the collapse, I think that a reasonable debt to capital ratio might have helped!
He won't accept responsibility for inflicting the Government with a mountain of debt before the crisis started and leaving it with few options. So which responsibility is he owning up to? Also he recognises that 'humility is needed'. Go on then, show some. Don't blather on about what is needed, just do it. Go on. Until you do, this is the narrative of the Government.
Squiffy.
He won't accept responsibility for inflicting the Government with a mountain of debt before the crisis started and leaving it with few options. So which responsibility is he owning up to? Also he recognises that 'humility is needed'. Go on then, show some. Don't blather on about what is needed, just do it. Go on. Until you do, this is the narrative of the Government.
Squiffy.
Government out of control
It appears that the Government of the UK is increasingly out of control. At the weekend Harriet Harman proposed that Sir Fred Goodwin's pension be judged in the court of public opinion. What does that mean? Mob rule? And this was from a qualified lawyer! Completely bonkers.
If she were to extrapolate this new court of public opinion she'd probably find that the legality of the Iraq war would be called into question! It's obvious that she is angling for the job of leader of the Opposition after the next election.
It also appears that Lord Myners knew about the pension pot and that the deal to remove Sir Fred from RBS actually doubled the amount in exchange for a year's notice pay. In fact this actually costs more. So the anger, which seems a bit synthetic, should actually be focused like a mirror back onto the Government for handling the 'nationalisation' of RBS incompetently without doing due diligence. If they had done due diligence then it would have only needed one bank bail-out!
On top of all this and of much greater importance is the state of the general economy. As the stock markets plunge again, we find that the Government's loan guarantee scheme is still delayed (this is the most crucial measure in getting money to small businesses). Also the mortgage help, which was rushed out without much agreement from the banks, is still delayed. Other measures are also still 'in the pipeline'. It seems that this Government needs a can of Mr Muscle to remove these blockages. At the moment, the Government which 'will do everything it can to help real people in need' needs to pull its bloody finger out.
Squiffy.
If she were to extrapolate this new court of public opinion she'd probably find that the legality of the Iraq war would be called into question! It's obvious that she is angling for the job of leader of the Opposition after the next election.
It also appears that Lord Myners knew about the pension pot and that the deal to remove Sir Fred from RBS actually doubled the amount in exchange for a year's notice pay. In fact this actually costs more. So the anger, which seems a bit synthetic, should actually be focused like a mirror back onto the Government for handling the 'nationalisation' of RBS incompetently without doing due diligence. If they had done due diligence then it would have only needed one bank bail-out!
On top of all this and of much greater importance is the state of the general economy. As the stock markets plunge again, we find that the Government's loan guarantee scheme is still delayed (this is the most crucial measure in getting money to small businesses). Also the mortgage help, which was rushed out without much agreement from the banks, is still delayed. Other measures are also still 'in the pipeline'. It seems that this Government needs a can of Mr Muscle to remove these blockages. At the moment, the Government which 'will do everything it can to help real people in need' needs to pull its bloody finger out.
Squiffy.
Wednesday, 25 February 2009
The heart goes out to the Camerons
It's a sad morning in Westminster with the news that Samantha & David Cameron's son Ivan passed away in the night.
It must have been difficult for them on learning that their son had cerebral palsy, but it was obvious that they doted on their son and took pride in him.
Our thoughts are with Samantha and David through this difficult time.
Squiffy.
It must have been difficult for them on learning that their son had cerebral palsy, but it was obvious that they doted on their son and took pride in him.
Our thoughts are with Samantha and David through this difficult time.
Squiffy.
Thursday, 19 February 2009
Tuesday, 17 February 2009
What is Frank Field doing on the Labour benches?
Every article that Frank Field pens shows that he's sitting on the wrong benches in the House Of Commons. Take this one from today's Independent. It could have been written by David Cameron or George Osborne and backs up what they are saying. Go on Frank, dare you.
Squiffy.
Squiffy.
Why does it always rain?
Apologies for not blogging recently, but on returning from a weekend in Manchester I found my flat had been burgled. Apart from the general rubbish feelings that this brings, it also creates a lot of hassle in your life.
For me, I can cope with the loss of personal property as I was expecting to be burgled at some point - such is life, especially in these harder times. My partner is more distraught at the thought of someone trawling through the underwear drawer and making such a mess. No, my problem is the hassle it creates as you have to face up to a time dealing with officialdom, with strange procedure which make no sense and the constant phone calls.
So far, though, dealing with the Police has been ok, apparently our case was closed within 48 hours as there was no evidence other than a footprint on the toilet cistern. Rather disheartening, I know, to have only 2 days as an active crime! Being called at work by victim support was a surprise, and as I ran into a meeting I didn't have time but to ponder the fact that I'm now a victim with my own social group.
Sending details of the stolen items to the home insurance company was slightly annoying as after faxing the details through, there was no acknowledgment of receipt. A quick phone call eased my mind, but why couldn't I have been informed before having to pick up the phone? We'll see what happens when the claim is processed.
The aforementioned rain is from the Travis song, Why does it always rain on me? A sense of self-pity, brought on by the 'it never rains, but pours' sentiment. Apart from the burglary, my bank card has stopped working and I lost my Oyster card. It's all happened in the last few days, so while waiting for a new bank card I've had to use other ways to finance my luxurious life!
Sorting out a new Oyster card was fun, after reporing it lost I got a new one. Great, I thought, I can transfer my old tickets over to the new card. But had I filled in the form? Had I given it a password? No, the man in the tube office hadn't offered one up when I'd explained my situation. No matter that I'd had to go to the next tube station along, as the one I usually used was closed all weekend for engineering works. I popped into another station for the form, to find a man in the kiosk sat behind a sign saying 'Information Only. For tickets use the machine'. I think he may have been able to have read out the headlines to the News Of The World, as reading that seemed to be his job, but for handing out a form from the drawer next to his right hand - that's just too much.
Anyway, I've got my Oyster card now. And a new laptop, although that didn't have my name on the packaging - checking with work's post room made sure that I got it, means that I should be able to resume my blogging.
Hopefully the rain will move away now.
Squiffy.
For me, I can cope with the loss of personal property as I was expecting to be burgled at some point - such is life, especially in these harder times. My partner is more distraught at the thought of someone trawling through the underwear drawer and making such a mess. No, my problem is the hassle it creates as you have to face up to a time dealing with officialdom, with strange procedure which make no sense and the constant phone calls.
So far, though, dealing with the Police has been ok, apparently our case was closed within 48 hours as there was no evidence other than a footprint on the toilet cistern. Rather disheartening, I know, to have only 2 days as an active crime! Being called at work by victim support was a surprise, and as I ran into a meeting I didn't have time but to ponder the fact that I'm now a victim with my own social group.
Sending details of the stolen items to the home insurance company was slightly annoying as after faxing the details through, there was no acknowledgment of receipt. A quick phone call eased my mind, but why couldn't I have been informed before having to pick up the phone? We'll see what happens when the claim is processed.
The aforementioned rain is from the Travis song, Why does it always rain on me? A sense of self-pity, brought on by the 'it never rains, but pours' sentiment. Apart from the burglary, my bank card has stopped working and I lost my Oyster card. It's all happened in the last few days, so while waiting for a new bank card I've had to use other ways to finance my luxurious life!
Sorting out a new Oyster card was fun, after reporing it lost I got a new one. Great, I thought, I can transfer my old tickets over to the new card. But had I filled in the form? Had I given it a password? No, the man in the tube office hadn't offered one up when I'd explained my situation. No matter that I'd had to go to the next tube station along, as the one I usually used was closed all weekend for engineering works. I popped into another station for the form, to find a man in the kiosk sat behind a sign saying 'Information Only. For tickets use the machine'. I think he may have been able to have read out the headlines to the News Of The World, as reading that seemed to be his job, but for handing out a form from the drawer next to his right hand - that's just too much.
Anyway, I've got my Oyster card now. And a new laptop, although that didn't have my name on the packaging - checking with work's post room made sure that I got it, means that I should be able to resume my blogging.
Hopefully the rain will move away now.
Squiffy.
Monday, 26 January 2009
What will Gordon Brown's legacy be?
It may seem premature to be asking such a question, but let's look forward to July 2010 when, according to the opinion polls, we'll be governed by David Cameron's Tories.
It all depends on what happens to the economy over the next year. If Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are right in their predictions then we'll have had one year of a recovery and they will be classed as brilliant minds who managed to pull Britain out of a deep recession or maybe even a depression. Gordon Brown will be a Chancellor par excellence. Also, if they are right then they will probably deserve to win the next election and we will be thinking that history has been cruel to them.
My own opinion differs somewhat from the above! Already, the economy seems to be much worse than the pre-budget report set out. If we do start growing in the third quarter of this year, I'll go out and buy a lovely hat, bake it and have it with some HP sauce. I think the economy will get worse during this year and maybe, just maybe, at the bottom of the cycle by year's end. This means that a recovery may be under way come the election, but the price will have been many billions of pounds seemingly squandered which made not one iota of difference to the recession. The public will be angry looking at the increased taxes which will be heading their way like a heat seeking missile.
Given my view, as it is, I think Gordon Brown will be seen in a similar light to Herbert Hoover. He took over in a boom and left in a recession. The previous years were all ruled by Republicans who did not spot the inflating bubble. Gordon Brown's tenure as Chancellor will be shaped by this view too. He mentioned the housing bubble in 2005 and did nothing to deflate it. People who still say that he was a good Chancellor will have differing views come 2015.
What of his other achievements as PM? It's pretty hard to think of them. He promised change, and we got change - a recession - but I'm not sure that was the intention. He was going to get rid of spin and sleeze, well I don't think that's been achieved. The announcment of reductions in British troops during the Tory Party Conference in 2007 put paid to spin, and now the big spinners are back in GB's tent. Sleeze is back with a vengeance now that four Labour peers have been accused of taking cash for changes to legislation.
What else? A big new housebuilding scheme - very unlikely given the economic circumstances. Eco-towns, struck down by Nimbyism. Great Britain day - disappeared. NHS constitution, ok I'll give him that - but until it makes a difference to the care people receive we'll have to wait and see.
I think that history will see him as a bad Chancellor and a desperately bad PM, characterised by high taxes, shocking waste, dithering, a complete lack of empathy, arrogance and bad temper.
Squiffy.
It all depends on what happens to the economy over the next year. If Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are right in their predictions then we'll have had one year of a recovery and they will be classed as brilliant minds who managed to pull Britain out of a deep recession or maybe even a depression. Gordon Brown will be a Chancellor par excellence. Also, if they are right then they will probably deserve to win the next election and we will be thinking that history has been cruel to them.
My own opinion differs somewhat from the above! Already, the economy seems to be much worse than the pre-budget report set out. If we do start growing in the third quarter of this year, I'll go out and buy a lovely hat, bake it and have it with some HP sauce. I think the economy will get worse during this year and maybe, just maybe, at the bottom of the cycle by year's end. This means that a recovery may be under way come the election, but the price will have been many billions of pounds seemingly squandered which made not one iota of difference to the recession. The public will be angry looking at the increased taxes which will be heading their way like a heat seeking missile.
Given my view, as it is, I think Gordon Brown will be seen in a similar light to Herbert Hoover. He took over in a boom and left in a recession. The previous years were all ruled by Republicans who did not spot the inflating bubble. Gordon Brown's tenure as Chancellor will be shaped by this view too. He mentioned the housing bubble in 2005 and did nothing to deflate it. People who still say that he was a good Chancellor will have differing views come 2015.
What of his other achievements as PM? It's pretty hard to think of them. He promised change, and we got change - a recession - but I'm not sure that was the intention. He was going to get rid of spin and sleeze, well I don't think that's been achieved. The announcment of reductions in British troops during the Tory Party Conference in 2007 put paid to spin, and now the big spinners are back in GB's tent. Sleeze is back with a vengeance now that four Labour peers have been accused of taking cash for changes to legislation.
What else? A big new housebuilding scheme - very unlikely given the economic circumstances. Eco-towns, struck down by Nimbyism. Great Britain day - disappeared. NHS constitution, ok I'll give him that - but until it makes a difference to the care people receive we'll have to wait and see.
I think that history will see him as a bad Chancellor and a desperately bad PM, characterised by high taxes, shocking waste, dithering, a complete lack of empathy, arrogance and bad temper.
Squiffy.
Friday, 23 January 2009
No More Inflationary Tory Boom and Bust
The Prime Minister was on the today programme this morning being interview by Evan Davies. At one point Evan asked him about the now legendary phrase of 'no return to boom and bust', and the PM couldn't - just couldn't - bring himself to say that it had been a mistake to utter those words.
When he said the words some voters may have been convinced, and went out on a spending borrowing splurge leading now to a greater boom and greater bust. So apart from being a factual mistake now that we're in 'bust' - he may have actually influenced behaviour to make it more likely.
It's funny that when we all realised we were heading for a recession Gordon Brown then started inserting the word Tory into the phrase - 'no more Tory boom and bust'. As if that means anything to the people who are now having their pay cut and are losing their jobs. Incidentally, it would be impossible for Gordon Brown to bring about a tory boom and bust as he was a Labour Chancellor. So that was some weird kind of thinking.
This morning he's changed the phrase again to 'no more inflationary boom and bust'. Oh well, that's ok then. It's so much better to be in a credit crunch, possibly deflationary boom and bust than an inflationary boom and bust. I don't think so. At least with an inflationary boom and bust we know which levers to pull. Gordon Brown is like the signal man in the 'The Great St Trinians Train Robbery', randomly pulling the levers without knowing which way the next train is going, when it's coming back and which way it's facing. He's mistaking activity with effectiveness.
One last point, yesterday Adair Turner - the new chair of the FSA - stated that new rules for banks would ensure that they increased capital in the good years to cope with less income in the bad years. Maybe he should apply that to Governments too and tell the PM, then maybe we wouldn't be looking at £1 trillion debt over the next few years.
Over and out.
Squiffy.
When he said the words some voters may have been convinced, and went out on a spending borrowing splurge leading now to a greater boom and greater bust. So apart from being a factual mistake now that we're in 'bust' - he may have actually influenced behaviour to make it more likely.
It's funny that when we all realised we were heading for a recession Gordon Brown then started inserting the word Tory into the phrase - 'no more Tory boom and bust'. As if that means anything to the people who are now having their pay cut and are losing their jobs. Incidentally, it would be impossible for Gordon Brown to bring about a tory boom and bust as he was a Labour Chancellor. So that was some weird kind of thinking.
This morning he's changed the phrase again to 'no more inflationary boom and bust'. Oh well, that's ok then. It's so much better to be in a credit crunch, possibly deflationary boom and bust than an inflationary boom and bust. I don't think so. At least with an inflationary boom and bust we know which levers to pull. Gordon Brown is like the signal man in the 'The Great St Trinians Train Robbery', randomly pulling the levers without knowing which way the next train is going, when it's coming back and which way it's facing. He's mistaking activity with effectiveness.
One last point, yesterday Adair Turner - the new chair of the FSA - stated that new rules for banks would ensure that they increased capital in the good years to cope with less income in the bad years. Maybe he should apply that to Governments too and tell the PM, then maybe we wouldn't be looking at £1 trillion debt over the next few years.
Over and out.
Squiffy.
Saturday, 17 January 2009
Ron Dennis to head the FIA?
Ron Dennis has announced that he is stepping down from the team principal role within McLaren. Last year while Max Mosley was embroiled in his 'strapped for cash' he said that he would not seek re-election as FIA president but I think he will do a U-turn and stand again. He likes the power.
I've just had a cheeky thought. Maybe Ron Dennis should stand for FIA president, probably against Max. The two men loathe each other, and after 2007's McLaren punishment it would be sweet justice for Ron to oust Max.
Sometimes dreams do come true.
Squiffy.
I've just had a cheeky thought. Maybe Ron Dennis should stand for FIA president, probably against Max. The two men loathe each other, and after 2007's McLaren punishment it would be sweet justice for Ron to oust Max.
Sometimes dreams do come true.
Squiffy.
Thursday, 15 January 2009
The Euro is a matter of foreign policy
I've just caught up with today's Daily Politics. Denis MacShane seemed to be affronted that it was William Hague who made a statement about the Tory party position on joining the Euro rather than George Osborne.
I don't see the problem. Membership of the Euro is a matter of economics and foreign policy, they are intertwined. Proponents of joining the Euro don't seem to think that ceding part of your economic policy affects sovereignty. I think it does.
Let's see how the Pigs do (Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain) coping with the recession within the constraints of the Euro.
Now back to Most Haunted Live.
Squiffy
I don't see the problem. Membership of the Euro is a matter of economics and foreign policy, they are intertwined. Proponents of joining the Euro don't seem to think that ceding part of your economic policy affects sovereignty. I think it does.
Let's see how the Pigs do (Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain) coping with the recession within the constraints of the Euro.
Now back to Most Haunted Live.
Squiffy
KC/DC?
Most of the speculation around Westminster and the right of centre blogs revolves about the forthcoming Shadow Cabinet reshuffle. So I thought I'd add my own thoughts.
It's unusual for a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle to be so anticipated, usually they pass with only a small amount of comment. Of course this time the speculation has been mounting on the Ken Clarke Question? Should David Cameron bring Ken Clarke back?
The Tory right are fuming at the prospect of bringing this Europhile back into a front bench position, but should they be wary of Ken Clarke? In the Euro wars which inflicted so much damage on the Tory party, the right won. The Tories now oppose nearly every integrationist treaty and Euro membership. If Maastrict had happened now, the Tories would oppose. The Europhile wing of the party is vastly reduced in number and has virtually no sway on the party.
So should the right fear setting the cats amongst the apple cart by bringing back Ken Clarke? I don't think so. Unlike the Major Government when Europhiles and Europhobes were pretty much in equal number and tearing the party apart on a daily basis, the issue is resolved. It would be up to Ken to tow the party line, and any attempts to tie DC's hands over a Euro issue would be resolved with KC's exit. Ken Clarke would know this from the outset.
So what benefits could be gained? He was a fine Chancellor who did leave the present Government a golden legacy, he speaks with authority and he's a man of the people and not a part of the Notting Hill set. It has been a tragedy that this man has not been on the front line, and he is partly to blame for not wanting to put the hours in tackling the Government on a daily basis. But his presence, in the Business brief would soup up the Tory attack now, and they need it...
In one way, Gordon Brown bringing back Peter Mandelson was a sign that the Labour party could be reconciled after the TB-GBs. Bringing back Ken Clarke would be a sign that the Tories are back as a fully fighting force after the Euro wars.
So bring it on.
On a similar note, who else should be brought back and who should be let go. It's a shame David Davis did his foolish (but honourable) resignation last year, because he should be the next Home Secretary but I can't see DC giving him another chance this side of an election. I'd bring back Patrick Mercer too as he speaks with authority on defence. I think it's time for Caroline Spelman to go back to the back benches for a while, and so too Peter Ainsworth, he's just been too invisible. I wouldn't get rid of Alan Duncan, he's also got the common touch when explaining the Government's mess.
Anyway, my tuppence.
Squiffy.
It's unusual for a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle to be so anticipated, usually they pass with only a small amount of comment. Of course this time the speculation has been mounting on the Ken Clarke Question? Should David Cameron bring Ken Clarke back?
The Tory right are fuming at the prospect of bringing this Europhile back into a front bench position, but should they be wary of Ken Clarke? In the Euro wars which inflicted so much damage on the Tory party, the right won. The Tories now oppose nearly every integrationist treaty and Euro membership. If Maastrict had happened now, the Tories would oppose. The Europhile wing of the party is vastly reduced in number and has virtually no sway on the party.
So should the right fear setting the cats amongst the apple cart by bringing back Ken Clarke? I don't think so. Unlike the Major Government when Europhiles and Europhobes were pretty much in equal number and tearing the party apart on a daily basis, the issue is resolved. It would be up to Ken to tow the party line, and any attempts to tie DC's hands over a Euro issue would be resolved with KC's exit. Ken Clarke would know this from the outset.
So what benefits could be gained? He was a fine Chancellor who did leave the present Government a golden legacy, he speaks with authority and he's a man of the people and not a part of the Notting Hill set. It has been a tragedy that this man has not been on the front line, and he is partly to blame for not wanting to put the hours in tackling the Government on a daily basis. But his presence, in the Business brief would soup up the Tory attack now, and they need it...
In one way, Gordon Brown bringing back Peter Mandelson was a sign that the Labour party could be reconciled after the TB-GBs. Bringing back Ken Clarke would be a sign that the Tories are back as a fully fighting force after the Euro wars.
So bring it on.
On a similar note, who else should be brought back and who should be let go. It's a shame David Davis did his foolish (but honourable) resignation last year, because he should be the next Home Secretary but I can't see DC giving him another chance this side of an election. I'd bring back Patrick Mercer too as he speaks with authority on defence. I think it's time for Caroline Spelman to go back to the back benches for a while, and so too Peter Ainsworth, he's just been too invisible. I wouldn't get rid of Alan Duncan, he's also got the common touch when explaining the Government's mess.
Anyway, my tuppence.
Squiffy.
Friday, 9 January 2009
Politicians in disguise
The world has gone mad. Gordon Brown has said that he thinks Optimus Prime from the transformers would solve most of our problems. The Tories have countered saying that Brown's got more in common with Decepticon. Is this the level of our political discourse? Maybe it's time for a new cartoon, Optimus Prime Mentalist vs DeceptiCam.
Squiffy.
Squiffy.
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