A look at my 2009 predictions

It's the end of the year and so it is time to mark my predictions for the year. Here is what I said:

1. There will be no general election in 2009. Although Gordon Brown will have been lining up a May/June election for seven months, the polls won't look good enough to risk it, and so GB will go until the last moment in 2010.
   CORRECT.
2. The recession will last throughout 2009. CORRECT.
   
3. Several other high street names will experience problems. I'm guessing at HMV, W.H.Smiths, and Robert Dyas. I just hope I'm wrong. OTHERS DID, BUT NOT THE ONES MENTIONED. HALF POINT.
   
4. Interest rates will reduce to 0.5%, the CPI will also go down to 0.5%, and the RPI will briefly go negative. CORRECT.
   
5. Robert Kubica will win the F1 World Championship. WRONG.
   
6. A bad set of economic figures in the beginning of the year will signal a reversal to Labour's recovery, the polls will go back to a good Tory position of Con 45%, Lab 26%, LD 17% by year's end. CORRECT.
   
7. Ken Clarke will come back as shadow Business secretary. CORRECT.
   
8. David Blunkett will come back as Home Secretary. WRONG.
   
9. The Tories will win the Local/Euro elections on a percentage share of 43%. Labour will get 22% with the LibDems at 26%. CORRECT, BUT FIGURES WRONG. HALF POINT.
   
10. Peter Mandelson will be forced to resign over some business dealings as EU Comissioner. WRONG.
    

So, that's 6 points out of 10. Not bad. Tomorrow for my 2010 predictions.

Squiffy.

Exciting - the leaders debates

The excitement has already started to build. Next year the UK will see its first leaders debate in a general election. All across the globe these events are standard practice, but here in Blighty we’re used to one party calling for a debate and another saying no.

 

Now that the blockade has been broken, they will form a part of every general election campaign here on in. Halleluiah, it’s taken a long time to get here but thankfully we’ve got here. The old refrain that every PM puts himself to questioning once a week at Prime Ministers Questions as an excuse will now be put to sleep.

 

I like the fact that the three debates will be 85 to 90 minutes long, quite a serious amount of time!

 

Who’s got something to lose, and who’s got something to win?

 

On the face of it, Gordon Brown, being an unpopular, PM has nothing to lose. David Cameron has everything to lose by starting  ahead. Nick Clegg has the gift of a lifetime in that he will get equal airtime to the two main party leaders.

 

So far the commentary follows these lines. I think that is too simplistic. For David Cameron, the repeated mantra that he hasn’t sealed the deal may be getting wearing. I don’t think things will change before the campaign, but a good performance may see him get closer.

 

David Cameron comes across well on TV, whereas Gordon Brown is notoriously bad and has a tendency to make mistakes under pressure (remember the investment of 0%). I’ve blogged before that the PM may well lose his temper and blow up under sustained questioning by the public (something he has never faced as PM) and if this happens it could be a real game changer.

 

Finally, I think Nick Clegg will do well whatever happens to the other two, if he gains 4 to 5 % on the back of a good performance I’d expect it to be at the expense of Labour rather than the Tories. It could make this election more like 1983 or 1987 with a seriously divided left leaving the Tories to win handsomely.

 

Only a few months to wait and we shall see.

 

I can’t wait, I wonder if I can get tickets for the audience?

 

Squiffy.

 

Why David Cameron cannot seal the deal.

During the last year or so there have been many articles about current polling trends, many pointing out that the Tories are stuck around the 40% mark and that David Cameron is seemingly unable to 'seal the deal'.

 

My thesis is that this is not a problem with David Cameron and that any Tory leader would have the same problem.

 

Many people remember the Tories from the last time they were in power, it's only 13 years ago, and many of them have a visceral hatred for them from that time. Two things which people remember is the sleaze at the end of the Government and the harshness at beginning, they put them together and get a corrupt and uncaring Government. They tend not to remember the transformed economy, the end of the strike culture, the international head held high etc.

 

When Labour were evicted in 1979, the feeling (I'm guessing as I was 6 years old) was that many people thought that the Government had their hearts in the right place but were incompetent, especially economically. Throughout the 80's and early 90's the population wanted a Government who could mix the caring image with economic competence. When Labour promised that with Tony Blair's election with a pledge to stick broadly to Tory economic principles, the populace embraced them with glee. Hence the national jubilation on May 2nd 1997.

 

For the Tories, now, this is not possible. The abiding memory will not allow it. David Cameron can only do his best, and the best that can be achieved is that floating voters reluctantly vote Tory. It will be for David Cameron to demonstrate, if he gets into office, that he can mix the economic competence with a compassionate conservatism whilst bringing down the deficit. If he can do this then he will seal the deal, and the following election will be easier to win. It's a very tall order, but with the right mix it is possible.

 

P.S. The Labour party are in a worse position now than the Tories were in 1997. As well as sleaze, they now look incompetent and are increasingly looking like they don't care what happens to the country whilst trying anything to stay elected.

 

Squiffy.

 

Will my prophesy come true, it looks like it has started...

I don't know when the polls will come in but looking at the newspaper headlines, it appears that the media narrative will change once again from a Labour recovery to Labour disaster.

 

Yesterday was another bad day, for everyone. Bad for the Government because they had precious little to give away as an election sweetener, and also bad because they didn't tackle the deficit and showed that everyone earning above £20, 000 is seen as a cash cow to plunder. Bad for the taxpayer, spending is going up next year and the day of reckoning has been put on hold again. It will only get worse. It was another opportunity lost.

 

Thankfully the tax on jobs, i.e. National Insurance rise, may not happen as it is penned to come in 2011 and there will be an election before then. Will the Government risk another awful budget next spring? Maybe not, maybe March 25th is now more likely than not. I hope so. We need rid - now!

 

I'm intrigued by the strategy, if you can call it that, of keeping on with the mantra that you don't cut the deficit and stimulus until the economy grows. The stimulus of the VAT cut will be taken away in 21 days time. What happens if this quarter's growth shows there is none and another contraction? It blows their whole argument out of the water! There's no wonder they reduced the tax on Bingo, they're hoping their numbers come in pretty quickly.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Why is it always me?

The country is in a mess, and so people like me have to pay a bit more. Fair enough. Beforehand, the country is growing with a booming economy so we need to tax those making money to pay for services. Me again.

 

And so it goes on, under a Labour Government, whatever the occasion people who are not the poorest will pay more and more and more. Until you think is it worth it? I could go on benefits and do some things that I enjoy rather than sit around at work getting bored, putting up with the horrible commuting experience, in winter never seeing daylight and earning money which gets taxed more and more heavily.

 

When do I get a break? Oh yes, I remember, under a Tory Government. A party that believes that doing work is good for you, and letting you choose how to spend your own money gives you responsibility, and with extra responsibility you can maybe set up an entrepreneurial enterprise and employ someone else and that by doing such the whole economy grows, tax receipts go up and there is more to spend on the poorest.

 

I'm just counting down to the days when whenever the Government makes a mess of it, they don't just decide to take a look in my wallet and help themselves.

 

So ends the moan.

 

Squiffy.

 

Why can't Gordon own up

Again Gordon Brown has told a mistruth, albeit a minor one. Yesterday in PMQs he said that Spain was a member of the G20. They do attend meetings but are not a member of the G20.

 

Harriet Harman has just popped up and said that he was exactly right to say what he did and that Spain is a member of the G20. Well he wasn't so why can't he just fess up. Last week David Cameron made a mistake in the House about the two schools linked to dubious organisations, but he came back and apologised. The PM seems pathologically unable to do the same.

 

If he needs a refresher, these are the members of the G20, taken from the G20 website www.g20.org:

• Argentina
• Australia
• Brazil
• Canada
• China
• France
• Germany
• India
• Indonesia
• Italy
• Japan
• Mexico
• Russia
• Saudi Arabia
• South Africa
• South Korea
• Turkey
• United Kingdom
• United States of America

Hello, where is Spain? I've looked up and down the list but cannot find it. No, not there. Come on, just be a man.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Gordon wows at last

Gordon Brown's performance today at PMQs was his best - by far. He may not have answered any questions but he was able to get his one liners in effectively and was able to make David Cameron uncomfortable.

 

Will he be able to keep up this level of performance? Only time will tell.

 

Squiffy.

 

My view on the polls

There has been much talk lately of a narrowing of the polls, of hung parliaments and of difficult times ahead for David Cameron. Yes, there been a small narrowing in the polls, mainly due to a softening of the Tory vote and not through a resurgence of the Labour party.

 

I think this has mainly been through the following reasons. Gordon Brown and the Labour party have not managed to slip on a banana skin for the last month, in fact the PM was seen with pity when The Sun made an attack on him. David Cameron had to make the change on policy over the Lisbon referendum, leading to some people talking about moving to UKIP. There was also the incident of Elizabeth Truss and the 'Turnip Taliban'.

 

It all adds up to some small movements in the polls. I don't think this is a defining time though. Never underestimate Gordon Brown's propensity to turn some good news for him into bad news. Next week is the Pre-budget report, and if history is any guide then it will be full of partisan announcements designed to create dividing lines. The public see this for what it is, and want some honesty about what to expect after the election in putting UK Plc's finances back on track. They will not get it, and I think the usual backlash will occur.

 

By mid December, expect to see the Tories back in the low 40's and Labour around 25.

 

Squiffy.

 

The Iraq truth is already starting to disseminate

Two items in the Chilcott Iraq war inquiry have already come to light. The first was that the USA and Britain had already discussed deposing Saddam Hussein before September 11th 2001, and the second that the Attorney General had advised that it would not be legal.

 

We expected the first, to be honest, and we're probably not surprised by the second. But just these two facts really do ring big alarm bells over why we went to war. The whole terrorist link which was trumpeted by George Bush and WMD report by the British Government were a means to an already wanted end. And what was it that changed the Attorney General's mind?

 

It's no surprise really, but it confirms our doubts that the public were heavily misled about the war. The words 'in good faith' will be used time and again over the next few months, but if the first few days are anything to go by we should not hold much store in those words.

 

Squiffy.

 

Tony Lloyd re-elected as Labour PLP chairman

Last night Tony Lloyd was re-elected unopposed as the chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party. This seemingly small piece of news has bigger implications than what first appears.

 

There are precious few moments when the Labour Party can do the most sensible thing and get rid of a Mr. G Brown of 10 Downing Street. One moment was last night. Barry Sheerman had said that he may stand as chairman of the PLP as a "Get Brown Out" candidate. If he had succeeded it would have shown that the Labour Party did indeed want him to go. Without the vote, that's another chance gone.

 

Maybe the poll over the weekend showing the Tory lead down to 6% had an impact. But as they were voting another poll put the Tories' lead at 17%, and Labour at a low of 22%. It now looks likely that the previous poll was rogue and normal service will be resumed.

 

There are now two more set pieces which could trigger the downfall. The PBR and Budget. So far each PBR and Budget of Mr. Brown's reign has immediately lead to a worsened poll position.

 

It is beginning to look like Labour will stick with Brown and face a severe drubbing. Of which we can all be truly grateful.

 

Squiffy.

 

The Queen must have been cursing inside her crown.

What a pitiful Queen's speech. Getting the Queen to read out a Labour Party political broadcast is horrible. It was cringeworthy.

We know there are only 33 days in Parliament before a General Election is called and so hardly any bills with any opposition will become law.

The worst law is the promise to reduce the deficit by half in 4 years. Sure the aim is fine, but what happens when it isn't adhered to. Can't imagine the PM being taken down. No, it's just the worst politics. Just bloody do it. I can't believe the Labour party can though, at every turn they just spend more money. It's the only thing they know.

Oh, by the way, what happened to the fiscal prudence rules which were passed into law in 1997/1998. They were supposed to keep out debt down. When it went slightly wrong they redefined the economic cycle. Then when it went further wrong, it was the global downturn. So who's going to prison for breaking this law? No-one. So what's the whole point.

Yesterday we heard Lord Mandelson on the Today programme being interviewed by Evan Davis. It was handbags at dawn, as Davis put it to Mandelson that the law to make sure no families would be in fuel poverty by 2010 was going to be broken. Who would be prosecuted. Mandelson did his usual trick of blaming Evan for not listening to his answer (the fact that there was no answer, didn't seem to matter to Mandelson). He's good, but soon the interviewers will cotton on to his technique!

Please put this Government out of its misery. I don't think I can wait another 5 months.

Squiffy.

Jenson to McLaren. Probably not good.

Now that it has been confirmed that Jenson Button will be joining Lewis Hamilton at McLaren, we take a look at his chances.

Firstly, we know that both are very good drivers and both should win races. But both like different set-ups. Lewis prefers an oversteer based car, but for Jenson it has to be perfectly balanced.

We know that Lewis has been McLaren's favoured son for many years. The likelihood is that the car will be built to Lewis' preferred set-up making it very difficult for Jenson. When Lewis doesn't have his perfect set-up he can grab the car by the scruff of the neck and make a good fist of it. Unfortunately, Jenson can struggle in a non-balanced car.

It does look to me that he may have made the wrong choice and will be beaten by Hamilton. I'm hoping I'm proved wrong and they are more evenly matched, but my suspicion is that Lewis will blow Jenson away.

Squiffy.

Degrees in Nursing?

I heard with incredulity that everyone who goes into nursing will need a degree in a few years time. What has happened to this country?

 

My mum was a night sister, very respected, well liked, firm but fair. Everyone knew where they stood with her and the patients knew they were getting the best of care.

 

She didn't get a degree, she left school at around 15 to go into training. In fact, she didn't have O-levels and I was extremely proud of her when she decided to get GCSE's later in life to make up for her lack of formal general qualifications from earlier schooling.

 

You can't tell me that hospital care is so different now to what it was two decades ago. Sure things will have moved on, there will be new treatments, drugs and a bit more administration but the care being provided by a nurse will greatly similar.

 

By making nursing a degree only profession, it will close off another job prospect to those kids who find they're not as academically gifted and be another reason why vocational qualifications are not taken seriously in this country.

 

I suppose this is one way to fulfill the Government's aim of getting 50% of people into university. There'll be no jobs for anyone without a degree soon! What does this mean for the policy of raiding other countries for nurses in recent years? Is it going to be that only British nurses need a degree, whilst others can transfer in without the necessary qualifications?

 

How flaming ridiculous.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

Reaction to the Tory change of policy on Europe

Now that we know what the new Tory policy on Europe is (or we think we do), I can give my first thoughts.

 

Firstly, disappointment that my recommendations weren't taken on board. I guess David Cameron does not want to go on board the train that could lead us out of the Union.

 

Secondly, though, I believe the policy is largely pragmatic and will have the best possible chance of keeping the Tory party united. I like the sound of the legislation to keep British Sovereignty, make sure future treaties have a referendum, and stop the ratchet clauses. I just hope they are strong enough to hold legal force!

 

Thirdly, when the dust has settled and we're on a path to economic recovery and a debt-reduction plan is in place, he will need to start playing hardball with the EU on his promises to bring back powers. Any lack of determination will be as much as a broken manifesto promise as the Labour party's promise to hold the Lisbon referendum. He must be prepared to withhold money, and must be prepared to play the EU countries at their own game and be very slow at implementing new laws.

 

Finally, in private he must be telling the EU partners that we must being to look at Association and not Union unless we get our powers back. Anything less will not get them thinking.

 

And for  all those people who harp on about the "cast-iron guarantee", they forget to mention the line after that which reads "No treaty should be ratified without consulting the British people in a referendum." i.e. the cast-iron guarantee is only while the treaty is not ratified.

 

Overall, probably the best the Tories could hope for. But as Vic and Bob used to say, 'you wouldn't let it lie' - and the public won't!

 

Squiffy.

 

David Miliband as EU foreign representative? No

In a column in the Mail on Sunday William Hague talks about David Miliband's recent comments about the Conservative's partners in Europe.

He points out that the EU partner's are not very happy about these comments, and it just so happens that some of them form coalition partners in their Governments or have the position of President. Do you think that they will want David Miliband to represent them at an EU level? I don't think so.

Mr Miliband has been disgraceful and will have to apologise before he gets that job. Even then his behaviour has been less than diplomatic and should rule him out completely!

Squiffy.

Europe: The proposal

Earlier in this post I gave some options that David Cameron can use for his European policy.

I've now got my proposal.

Firstly David Cameron should be up front and say that he didn't want to be in this position. He had said that Lisbon was a step too far, and it is. He now has to push for Britain's rights to have the relationship we want with Europe. With that in mind he will have one or two referenda.

The first referendum will have a question such as "Britain should have its own rights over Fishing Quotas, Immigration, Taxation and Employment rights. Agree?". The exact list should be set out at the time, but be at a level where we are happy. I can now hear the laughter - how naive, Europe will never agree to such repatriation of powers (even though the original Constitution was supposed to bring some powers back to nation states - look how that turned out!).

That's the reason for the second referendum. In case the EU turns away and chooses not to listen to the UK's point of view, the second referendum is asked. "Britain should have an Economic relationship with the EU, and have associate membership". This is the nuclear option.

Both referenda will be set out at the start. It is blackmail, but the EU does not listen to its people and Governments collude to deny the electorate their say - so needs must.

It will then be a matter of how much the EU wants the UK as a member. If they do want us, then we will continue to contribute to the coffers but we want some powers back. If they don't then fair enough we will go our own way.

I think it is time to play hard ball with the EU political elite.

Squiffy.

The Brown jinx hits again

Whenever the PM wishes someone well before an endeavour or publicly supports someone, you know it's curtains. Last night he publicly back his old friend and foe, Tony Blair, as new President of the Council of Ministers. This morning we hear that EU leaders have cooled on the idea.

 

He's done it again! Maybe that was the plan…

 

Squiffy.

 

David vs William: Part two

An infrequent series of interviews seem to be occurring on the Today programme where at 8.10 a.m. both David Miliband and William Hague are interviewed together. It's always entertaining.

 

In this morning's exchanges, William had the killer point in the earlier part of the interview and David in the latter.

 

Firstly, William Hague pointed out that the Labour Government claimed that the treaty was not a constitution and was just a tidying up exercise and so the referendum was not needed. But Hague then pointed out how David Miliband is stating that we need a strong new EU President who can stop the traffic to push forward EU views to the rest of the world. Surely that role is quite a constitutional change from the rotating presidency with limited powers now. David Miliband had no real comeback on this hierocracy.

 

Then in a discussion about the polish head of the Conservative grouping in the EU, Michael Kaminsky, David Miliband read out an interview in which Kaminsky said that the death of 300 Jews  was not of a scale as the Holocaust and should not be apologized for. William Hague had no come back for that.

 

1 all, I would say.

 

P.S. When I think about the EU and how the electorate (of the whole EU) are being treated, I get angry. Very angry. In fact I've nearly had enough. I am now close to changing my position on the EU and thinking that we should go for associate membership, like Norway. I'm not there yet, but it's getting closer.

 

Squiffy.

 

Iceland closes down McDonalds

No this has nothing to do with Kerry Catona's advertising prowess, making the burger giant fold!

 

This morning it is reported that the recession is so bad in Iceland that the three McDonalds restaurants (can I call them that) will be shut. Apparently the Icelandic Krona is so weak that it is now too expensive to buy a Big Mac. Wow, it must be really bad, or possibly a blessing is disguise.

 

Maybe they will be able to get their fix by digging up the semi-putrified fillet-o-fish buried last summer and eating those!

 

Squiffy.

 

The failure of Labour's schemes

George Osborne today made a significant speech about Labour's failures in tackling the recession and what the Tories would do about it. It was an impressive speech, but what struck me was the scale of the failure of the Governments plans. If George Osborne is correct then these are the figures.

- The Capital for Enterprise fund has helped just 5 companies.

- The Mortgage Rescue Scheme has helped 15 families.

- The Trade Credit Insurance Scheme has helped 58 businesses with £13 million, it was designed to supply £5 billion!

- The Guarantee for Asset Backed Securities has not provided any guarantees yet.

- The £2.3 billion Automotive Assistance Programme has not provided funds to anyone yet.

We know that the car scrappage scheme has worked, but it looks like nothing else has. Including the VAT cut.

What a waste of time. Gordon Brown says the Tories would do nothing to help, well he should look to himself because that is what his government has achieved. I think the £50 billion loan guarantee would have been better than all these schemes!

Squiffy.