Nadine Dorries should be quiet

Having heard Nadine Dorries MP on the radio this morning blasting the new speaker, John Bercow, I just wanted to shout be quiet.

Until recently I had the utmost respect for Nadine Dorries, but her outburst on the Today programme during the expenses scandal, showing that she didn't really get the public's anger, a woeful performance on Question Time and now this morning's diatribe against John Bercow has really dented my confidence in her.

It's true that many Tories do not support John Bercow, but now that he has been elected as Speaker he should be given some respect and some time to prove that he is up to the job. If he is shown to be as inept as Michael Martin then by all means have a go, but this is just looking like peevishness at a lost election. If there's anything that the public don't like it's a sore loser. So Button it.

Squiffy.

Formula 1 in turmoil

As a break from normal politics, I'll take a look at the other great love of mine - Formula 1. Which just happens to be mired in politics at the moment!

Formula 1 is caught between two bodies which think they have the best interests of the sport going forward. In the red corner sits the FIA, the governing body of international motorsport, intent on producing a reduced cost formula of £40 million per team. In the blue corner resides FOTA, the association of formula 1 teams, intent on reducing the cost of teams to enter formula 1.

The positions of the two bodies seem to be nearly identical, so why the fuss?

I believe that it is based on history.

Max Mosley has been president of the FIA for a long long time. In that time he has improved safety massively, especially since the death of Ayrton Senna. But he has also been very adamant in pushing through changes to the sport. One has to think of these changes; re-fuelling, banning active suspension, banning traction control, narrow-track cars, grooved tyres, un-banning traction control, standard engine control units, banning mass dampers, banning traction control again, slick tyres again, new aero-dynamics and KERS. The next changes include banning re-fuelling again. When he has not been able to get his changes through, because technical changes need unanimous support, he has pushed changes through as safety improvements which do not.

Also in that time, many independent teams have become backed by manufacturers, some independents have gone and new manufacturers have come in. They did so because it has been tremendously successful at advertising manufacturer's technical prowess, but they did bring large amounts of money.

With the benefit of hindsight, an autocratic leader who changes regulations regularly causing more to be spent in development whilst the changes themselves make the cars less technological, it looks obvious that we were going to get to this point.

In the current climate, with some teams turning their backs on F1 due to the cost and threatening the strength of the grid it does look like costs need to be reduced. Both organizations want reductions, the manufacturers in a step by step approach, the FIA in a dramatic single step. I can understand why Ferrari, for example, do not want to jump from £200M to £40M in one step, there will be many redundancies.

So, swords have been drawn. In the wrangling, Max Mosley has continued a trend from Gordon Brown. He creates dividing lines, and uses the divide and conquer technique to try to split the FOTA teams. This causes more animosity. Normally it works, but I don't think so this time.

FOTA have become intransigent, and wants to be listened to rather than brushed aside. After all, they are the ones spending money on this exercise. They are sick of being pushed around and being ignored. As an example, FOTA ran a survey of F1 fans and asked them what they thought of various aspects - I know because I took part. One conclusion that came out of it was that there should be a greater points difference between 1st and 2nd place. At the beginning of the season, the FIA tried to push through another system of medals. The World Champion is the one who won most races. The FIA ignored the fan's survey as well as the teams. At present, this crazy system is on the regulations for next year even though Jenson Button would win this year's championship earlier than he will at present. It set the tone for the year.

Multiple suggestions have been ignored, although on the basis of the cost cap there has been some compromise. Even then though there has not been agreement. Press briefing accuses the other side, highlighting the differences.

So, where do we go from here?

This is not about the cost cap any more. It is about Max Mosley. FOTA want him out and he is refusing to go. This is a billion pound game of chicken. Both sides are now so polarised that I don't believe compromise can now be achieved. The likelihood of a breakaway series is now 70% (in my mind), followed by Max Mosley being ousted as FIA president. Maybe there will then be a meeting of minds.

Otherwise we could have an F1 championship, run to £40M with small independent teams and a GP1 championship with the manufacturers including Ferrari, McLaren etc. with the existing drivers. I know which one I would watch. Actually, I love it so much I'd probably watch both.

I'll be in Silverstone this weekend to hopefully watch Jenson Button take a famous victory. The deadline for FOTA backing down is Friday, but don't hold your breath.

Squiffy.

Surprise surprise, the inquiry reports in July 2010

As predicted, Gordon Brown has just announced an inquiry into the Iraq war. It sounds like it maybe a wide inquiry, which is to be welcomed. But as I suggested earlier, the report will be published just after the latest date possible for a General Election.

He must think that we are idiots! We can see through it though, but we are getting used to the lies and the cynicism.

Squiffy.

He can't stop creating dividing lines

On Monday the Prime Minister said to the PLP that he would change his style. But it is so difficult for him, and two days later he's proved that he cannot.

His Democratic Reform Council, packed full of Labour members, has met once and for 90 minutes. In that time they've decided that Electoral Reform should be back on the agenda, funny how Labour is interested now it is in danger of being the third party in the UK.

They also decided that Government papers should be released after 20 years rather than 30 years, which funnily enough would enable all the papers for the Thatcher Government to be released in one go. They obviously want lots of embarrassing details to be in the open just in time for the GE.

So there's some more dividing lines, he just can't stop himself.

I'm also expecting there to be a full review of the Iraq war to be announced in the next few days, and I guess the results will be announced next June, so that the remit is set by this Government but they don't have to face the consequences. Maybe I'm just a cynic.

Squiffy.

Bob Crow makes me mad

As someone who lives in London and needs to use the tube to get to work, I get mad with the annual tube strikes. It's the last union that needs the Thatcher treatment.

For far too long they have held London to ransom with spurious strikes. I remember the strike because the station at the end of line did not have a wash basin, the strike when someone was fired because he was found to be playing squash when he was signed off sick, the strikes because of fears over safety which achieve nothing and the myriad of strikes over pay.

This strike is over a 5% pay claim. Are they in the real world? We're living in a world of deflation and pay freezes. I'd love to see an army of part timers trained up to provide a reduced service when the RMT goes on strike. I'd volunteer myself, I think it would satisfy my boyhood dreams of being a train driver. I'd also pay the volunteer force more money for the days when they have to taken over. Just watch the RMT go on strike then!

Also, why is it that strikes always seem to be held when England are playing?

Squiffy.

Lily livered nancies

That's the Labour party for you. They deserve the largest defeat possible for leaving us with this dysfunctional, half crazed, delusional, lying, economy wrecking idiot.

Squiffy,

Maybe I was just getting excited...

The feeling of gloom has descended on me. I now think that Gordon Brown will not resign and will trudge on for the next few months. Damaged, going slightly mad and angry. It's going to be horrible.

Squiffy.

Could we be approaching the endgame?

Sky News is reporting that cabinet ministers are meeting this afternoon at Number 10. Sounds reasonable to work out a strategy for tonight's PLP meeting.

But my spideysense tells me that it's not going to be like that, Sky say that Alan Johnson and Alistair Darling have been entering via the back entrance.

I think the meeting could be similar to the one-to-ones that Mrs T had when she realised it was over. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Gordon Brown will announce his resignation to the PLP tonight, they will agree some basic timetable for a leadership election and will then hit the airwaves. Everyone will then say that they regret what happened but Gordon Brown has done the honourable thing, and now they can unite.

I may have got this so wrong, but sometimes who have to go with a hunch.

Squiffy.

Hazel Blears has been strangely silent

The little chipmunk is usually everywhere on our TV screens, but she has gone to ground since her resignation last week. It is traditional that a ministerial resignation leads to a statement in the House.

Could it be that La Blears is planning a Geoffrey Howe type statement? If nothing happens this week, after the PLP meeting and minister level resignations, I think she will. Hazel Blears is not one to pull her punches and she could try to go for the kill. It would be much more effective than Caroline Flint spouting off after giving GB support one day then knifing him the next.

Squiffy.

Now Tony, it's up to you.

It's time for Tony Blair to finish off Gordon Brown. He needs to phone Peter Mandelson to tell him to pull the plug on the PM.

Tony Blair should, for the sake of his own legacy, tell Peter Mandelson to start strategising on how to get the person he wants as PM before the next election. Revenge is a dish best served by the cold calculator of British Politics, the Prince of Darkness.

Squiffy.

Wow. Lord Falconer has asked for GB to go.

The Blairite plot is obviously still running. Tony Blair's ex-flatmate has come out and asked GB to go, now it is obvious that TB also thinks this way.

Nearly game over.

Squiffy.

Why is Suralan being made a Lord?

On the Andrew Marr show and Sky, Sir Alan Sugar has stated that he's not going to be a working peer, and that he doesn't know whether he will be voting with the Government. He clearly doesn't have a clue of what is being expected of him.

It was basically spin, and I thought Sir Alan would have been more astute. He keeps saying that people who know him would know that he wouldn't be used by anyone. That's exactly what's happened.

Out of his depth.

Squiffy.

Delusional.

Glenys Kinnock, that's progress. What next, Keir Hardy?

Squiffy.

Gordon Brown, oi shut it

I'm listening to the cracked record that is our PM. He says he's going to be candid, but then is candid about other peoples failures - such as expenses. Come on Labour MPs. Sharpen those knives, we need him gone.

Oh, Caroline Flint has just resigned. Please, can we have some more?

Squiffy.

Call this a re-shuffle?

The most pathetic "game changing" re-shuffle I've ever seen. If this was supposed to re-launch Brown it has failed before it has even been completed. There's hardly any changes at the top. The only changes made have been to fill in the gaps made by the four secretaries who've resigned.

The cabinet looks very similar to the old cabinet. The PM now has no power at all, he cannot move his ministers and is boxed in. He's a busted flush. Go now.

Squiffy.

The slow motion car-crash

Just in the middle of watching today's Daily Politics. Andrew Neil questioned whether we were watching a slow motion car crash. Completely correct. All of Mr Brown's plans are falling around his ears.

James Purnell's resignation makes it more difficult because as fast as he's re-arranging the deckchairs people are jumping overboard. It all depends on Alistair Darling. He wants to stay where he is and if GB tries to lever him out, Alistair will kill him using a Geoffrey Howe type speech/comment. If he allows him to stay he will show what a weak position he finds himself, all week he has been trying to smooth the path for Ed Balls, but now it looks impossible.

Tonight, it is looking desperate for team GB. I've never witnessed anything like it. I remember gathering in the TV room at college when someone alerted me that (the blessed) Margaret Thatcher had resigned. Such a depressing day. I remember visiting London on a lovely sunny day, when I'd finished my exams at University to find that John Major had resigned the leadership of the Tory party and put himself up for
re-election. I was in St Ives when the coup was enacted to rid us of Tony Blair.

Each time it was a surprise, but it happened incredibly quickly. This time it feels like it's happening slowly, but GB is not getting the message and so another little message is given to him. That's why it's feeling drawn out. The pace is fast, the reaction is slow.

It's an amazing time in politics. I've just been to the IMAX to watch the latest Star Trek, and it was a very exciting film - particularly on a big screen - but my mind kept wondering back to the unfolding events. I don't know what was most exciting, watching the new Kirk's handsome quivering face questioning Spock's possible romance with Uhura during a Romulan attack, over James Purnell's handsome sideburns attacking Gordon Brown whilst a quivering Hazel Blears watches with from the sidelines.

The next two/three days are going to be the most exciting time in politics.

Squiffy.

Could today mark the end of Labour as a political force?

Today it is likely that Labour will have a major drubbing in the local and European elections. They are likely to be third place in the local elections and third or even fourth in the European elections. It sounds bad, but don't Governments find themselves in these positions after a long while in power? Well, yes, they do - but is today likely to be different?

Possibly. I'm not sure what Labour stands for any more. What is their purpose? Even in the dark days of the Tories, when their message was pretty confused, it was still possible to discern that they stood for sound money, responsibility and free enterprise. What made it really difficult for the Tories was that Labour also appeared to stand for these values, they had moved onto the Tory position.

Now, it appears that the "New" Labour values died with Tony Blair, and were a sham anyway. Although they talked about sound money or "prudence", they acted like money was no object. The old adage that all Labour Governments run out of money in the end has been shown to be as true today as it was in the 70s.

When they mentioned responsibility they meant state responsibility. The state is now responsible for huge amounts of the employment whilst the welfare state is responsible for thousands living off taxpayers money without any inclination to earn a living.

Their commitment to the free market and enterprise died when they manufactured a situation in which Railtrack could be forced to go bust, followed by vast nationalisation of the banks.

So now the wallpaper has been stripped from the New Labour project, what's left? The Blairites seem to be floundering around. The old Labour party still exists as a rump within the existing Government, jumping around with glee that RBS is now 70% owned by the taxpayer.

The Labour coalition is threatening to break up under the strain, it is conceivable that the Blairites could split and forge an alliance with the Lib Dems and the Labour party reverts to its old values and becomes a party of Government no more.

It will take someone of great stature to hold Labour together after the meltdown, and someone will need to imprint some new values on the party for it to survive. I cannot see anyone in the current crop able to do that.

For today, vote any party except Labour, the Lib Dems and BNP. All those parties which promised a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and then reneged on their manifesto promise should be punished. And obviously the BNP is beyond the pale.

Squiffy.

It's started

The push for Mr Brown to resign has started, Hazel Blears has gone, citing how she was singled out for criticism by Gordon Brown. GB is now meeting colleagues, maybe he is trying to cobble together his re-shuffle. Or just maybe, the Cabinet his telling him to go. It could be a momentous day.

Squiffy.

Bad headlines

The headlines for tomorrow are really bad for Gordon Brown.

Ho Hum.

Squiffy.

The knifing begins

What a day. As we were waiting for the weekend for the night of the long knives, it appears to have started earlier with ministers doing a contortionists job of plunging the knives into their backs. If there was ever a sign of a Government in terminal decline, today was a significant portent.

In one day, we've had one cabinet minister, two other minsters, one ex-cabinet minister and a disgraced MP stand down from their jobs. It looks like two will attempt to fight for their seats, although in Jacqui Smith's case it's a facile attempt. She will be gone.

This is looking worse than the Major Government. I've never known anything like it, the Government is looking at death by a million cuts, Labour MPs are lemmings on the edge.

It's also looking like there will be a vote in the Commons next week on dissolution, which of course the Government will win. But can anybody remember a party with a 66 seat majority having to face such a vote? It shows how febrile the mood is.

Be gone with you.

Squiffy.

The reshuffle is on

Harriet Harman inadvertently let the cat out of the bag. She said on Newsnight that she would not "speculate on the reshuffle", indicating that there will indeed be a reshuffle.

So hold on to your hats this weekend, for a second night of the long knives, or re-arranging deckchairs on the Titanic.

Squiffy.