The next month: a prediction

Following yesterday's terrific speech by Peter Mandelson at the Labour party conference, and the ensuing surge in optimism for Labour, I thought I'd predict what happens in the next month or so.

Firstly, today. I think Gordon Brown will make a good speech and pull a few rabbits out of hats. At the end, everybody will say that he's made the speech of his life, that it's game on and his leadership is now settled. In the polls, Labour will briefly touch 30% with Conservatives at 38% and LibDems at 22%.

Next week, at the Tory conference, George Osborne will also make a good speech and make another policy which changes the mood - the idea put to me is reversing the pensions raid Gordon Brown made in his first year. David Cameron will then "have to make the speech of his life", and again will. At the end of the week the polls will say Conservatives 40%, Labour 28% and LibDems 20%.

Within a few weeks, an "event" will happen which Gordon Brown will handle badly, his MPs will start asking questions over his leadership, and hey presto the polls will be at Conservative 43%, Labour 25% and LibDems 19%.

And hence, nothing will have changed.

Squiffy.