Wednesday 25 July 2012

0.7% drop, don't believe it

The shock figures today, I'm pretty damn sure are incorrect. One has only to detect the mood of the country, although subdued we are growing.

The employment figures are going up, the unemployment figures are going down, inflation is falling. The individual growth surveys are showing a country in growth not contraction.

The GDP figures will be revised as always, but having an initial figure so out of whack with the end figure is extremely unhelpful to a real growth strategy. The GDP figures can become a self fulfilling prophecy. Remember in the latter half of 2009 the initial figure was -0.4% but was revised to +0.4%!

The scandal of this is that we cannot trust these figures and yet they set the mood of the nation. There should be an urgent review.

Squiffy.

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