The Tory Party is split down the middle. If Leave wins, I think the party will coalesce around a new Brexiteer leader, Boris Johnson or maybe Micahel Gove if he can be persuaded. If Remain wins then I can foresee a split like what happened to Labour in 1981. The Brexiteers will feel extremely let down by David Cameron's behaviour, using the Government machine for propaganda will not have gone down well. George Osborne is nearly a dead man walking.
The Labour parliamentary Party is united against Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour Party at large are now largely for him. Everyone knew that Corbyn would be a Leaver had he not been leader. The referendum has added a new cleave between the parliamentary party and a large section of their voters. There are now so many disconnects within Labour it could rupture quite quickly. It may even disappear completely.
If Leave wins then UKIP can disappear along with Nigel Farage with their voters finding new homes. If Remain win then this party could unite with Tory malcontents to form a new party. Otherwise a similar change to what happened to the SNP could occur under new leadership. Europe was not a big deal for most people, but it will be now. I expect UKIP to do quite well after a Remain win, but Farage would have to resign - he is now toxic. I would prefer to see Suzanne Evans as leader, in fact I think leave would have had a better change with her at the helm.
Farage may not stand down though, and maybe he wanted them not to win to continue as leader of this party. He may sense an SNP type surge, but I can't see it with him at the helm.
The SNP and Lib Dems are the only ones who would be untouched.
Alternately, we may just trundle on as before.
Squiffy.
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