Some thoughts on the referendum : The polls

The polls were all over the place for a long time and were level pegging for most of the campaign. For a while Remain was ahead, then it swung to Leave, in the final days it swung back to Remain.

The betting markets have been majorly for Remain all along, bobbing about the 75%.

The most fascinating thing about the polls is that it is so difficult to work out the turnout. Older people are more likely to go for Leave, hyoung for Remain and we all know older people turn out to vote far more than the youth.

Also, though, ABC1s are more for Remain and more likely to vote than C2DEs.

Both these factors conflict and so it will be interesting to see if these correlate to what happens in a few hours. Not long to go now.

My view is that it will be 54% remain, 46% leave. But I'm just as in the dark as everyone else!

Squiffy.