A Government of National Unity?

At the moment there is a right who-ha about what happens if Boris Johnson refuses to resign to allow a Government of National Unity to take over following a loss of a confidence vote when parliament resumes on 3rd September.

There are quite a lot of hurdles which have to be jumped before we get to that point. Firstly, would Corbyn actually table a vote of confidence? I suspect that he will delay as much as possible. His argument before parliament broke up was that it could actually strengthen Boris. I'm not sure what is likely to change in the next month or so - apart from being closer to the Halloween deadline. Also, I think Corbyn wants the Tories to go through a no deal Brexit in the hope that it is a disaster and then Corbyn can then do a confidence vote and swoop in as a saviour!

Let's assume he does table a confidence vote. Will he win it? Everyone thinks the Tories have a majority of 1, but in fact it is actually more when you count the non voting speakers and non-whipped Tories such as Charlie Elphicke. Then add in the fact that it is suicide for any Tories who vote against, a sure fire whip removal, and then loss of seat at the election. It is then possible for some ex-Labour MPs not enamoured with Corbyn but who are not standing again to back the PM (maybe Frank Field & Kate Hoey).

Let us now assume that Boris loses. The fixed term parliament act only needs Boris to resign if there is an alternative viable Government. Boris could try to span it out to try to put together another Government and go for another vote after fourteen days.

Then what would be this viable Government of National Unity be? Boris Johnson would still be leader of the Tory party and so any Tories joining the Government would most likely be de-selected and lose the whip. It would only be a small number of Tories, but then it would need all the Lib Dems, all the independents and nearly all of the Labour party to join. Do you think Corbyn and his cronies would back a remainer Tory or Blairite Labour MP? No chance, and the other independents won't support Corbyn. I honestly can't see them cobbling together the numbers.

So many hoops have to be jumped through before we get to the point at which Boris needs to resign. If he doesn't there may be court case to push him out, it will all be wasting time until such point as he resigns and then calls an election for after Halloween.

There could be some more shenanigans by remainers using every technique to stop Boris going through what the law already says, but Boris will stick to the rule of law - I'm sure. So who is being casual with parliament? The one sticking by the votes, elections, and referendums, or those that are using every tactic to deny the result of the referendum?

 Squiffy.

BoJo MoJo

It's been just over a week since Boris Johnson was elected to be leader of the Conservative Party and  hence the Prime Minister. I voted for him with a little trepidation, but so far I have been extremely happy with how things are going.

He hit the ground running and had his cabinet in place extremely quickly. I'm really happy with the cabinet apart from the sacking of Penny Mordaunt - who I rate highly. I would have kept her in place, but I'm happy with the rest of the choices. It needed to have a top heavy pro-Brexit bias so there is no chance of resignations destabilising the Government at a later date, when it gets sticky.

The appointment which sticks out though is obviously Dominic Cummings. The man who ran the Vote Leave campaign has shown he can run a strategy to success and that is what is needed now. In many ways it is the take over of Government by the Vote Leave operation. It feels like it should have been done three years ago, but better late than never.

The Brexit strategy has been spot on since then. Prepare for no-deal and say to the EU "come back to us when you are ready to re-open the withdrawal agreement, otherwise we leave on 31st Oct". I've been impressed by the unified appearance of the cabinet, especially after the leaky divided May cabinet. The new Prime Minister hasn't really put a foot wrong yet, surprisingly. It's a breath of fresh air. The May Government was so depressing, nothing was being done, it now seems like we have an active Government again.

I think the EU will come back with something when they realise that the UK is serious about leaving without a deal. But I feel their offer will not be enough and we will have to leave anyway. But whether our parliament and the speaker finds a ruse to somehow force us not to leave is still open. The period just after parliament comes back is key. But again the Government is impressive, they say "if MPs find archaic ways to try to stop Brexit, then the Government will play the game likewise".

The next few months are going to be absolutely fascinating, but I think it's now a 60% chance we will leave on October 31st. It's also possible there be a snap election. This is probably going to be the most interesting three months in politics in my lifetime.

Squiffy.