Wednesday, 7 August 2019

A Government of National Unity?


At the moment there is a right who-ha about what happens if Boris Johnson refuses to resign to allow a Government of National Unity to take over following a loss of a confidence vote when parliament resumes on 3rd September.

There are quite a lot of hurdles which have to be jumped before we get to that point. Firstly, would Corbyn actually table a vote of confidence? I suspect that he will delay as much as possible. His argument before parliament broke up was that it could actually strengthen Boris. I'm not sure what is likely to change in the next month or so - apart from being closer to the Halloween deadline. Also, I think Corbyn wants the Tories to go through a no deal Brexit in the hope that it is a disaster and then Corbyn can then do a confidence vote and swoop in as a saviour!

Let's assume he does table a confidence vote. Will he win it? Everyone thinks the Tories have a majority of 1, but in fact it is actually more when you count the non voting speakers and non-whipped Tories such as Charlie Elphicke. Then add in the fact that it is suicide for any Tories who vote against, a sure fire whip removal, and then loss of seat at the election. It is then possible for some ex-Labour MPs not enamoured with Corbyn but who are not standing again to back the PM (maybe Frank Field & Kate Hoey).

Let us now assume that Boris loses. The fixed term parliament act only needs Boris to resign if there is an alternative viable Government. Boris could try to span it out to try to put together another Government and go for another vote after fourteen days.

Then what would be this viable Government of National Unity be? Boris Johnson would still be leader of the Tory party and so any Tories joining the Government would most likely be de-selected and lose the whip. It would only be a small number of Tories, but then it would need all the Lib Dems, all the independents and nearly all of the Labour party to join. Do you think Corbyn and his cronies would back a remainer Tory or Blairite Labour MP? No chance, and the other independents won't support Corbyn. I honestly can't see them cobbling together the numbers.

So many hoops have to be jumped through before we get to the point at which Boris needs to resign. If he doesn't there may be court case to push him out, it will all be wasting time until such point as he resigns and then calls an election for after Halloween.

There could be some more shenanigans by remainers using every technique to stop Boris going through what the law already says, but Boris will stick to the rule of law - I'm sure. So who is being casual with parliament? The one sticking by the votes, elections, and referendums, or those that are using every tactic to deny the result of the referendum?

 Squiffy.

No comments: