I tip Ed Miliband as Labour Leader.

Looking at the nominations it looks like being a battle between both Milibands and both Eds, even though that's only 3 people. David Miliband is the favourite but I think that Labour election rules makes it more likely that his brother becomes leader.

Labour uses the Alternative vote system, which as I've said before rewards the least hated person. As David M and Ed B represent the two wings of the moderate Labourites the following scenario is likely.

Those liking David M will likely put brother Ed as second preference, with Balls last. Those liking Ed Balls, will probably put namesake Miliband as second preference and David last. With Ed Miliband's second preferences likely split between the two opponents, adding first preferences to second makes Ed Miliband the victor.

The rivals have a few months to stop this scenario becoming true.

Squiffy.